Rate T of 2021-2023

 A new Rate T has developed. 

T-Theory uses 30-Year Treasury Yield $TYX to estimate future dates of meaningful lows, major corrections and periods of softness (sideways volatile consolidation) in broad stock market ($SPX, $NYA). Although dates are known in advance, it is not possible to predict what kind of a low may occur, at what price level, whether it will be higher or lower low or even last correction low before rally starts. Plus, there is a margin of error of no more than 10%.

Over the past 10 years or so, it has been prudent to lighten up portfolio of stocks well before Rate T projected dates hit, so ample funds will be available to do some buying on downlow. Spread your bets, reduce size, widen stops - we are already in the midst of historical bear market, that may get whole lot more historical.

21-23 Rate T started with high in 30yr Yield of 2.5% on week of March 15, 2021. There are two minor highs of 2.4% - first one happen 3 weeks prior and last high was on week of May 10. (As of this writing, "last high" already hit one of its projections)

There are two possible placements for centerpost of  the T - Time Symmetry Projection - producing 2 sets of time targets for when a low in stocks may occur. 

The Low of this move in rates at 1.67% on week of November 29, 2021 produces 37 weeks Rate T with target on week of August 15, 2022 (July 25-Sept 6, considering margin of error).

Last Low Before Breakout at 2.07% on week of February 28, 2022 produced 50 week Rate T with target on week of February 13, 2023 (Jan 9 - March 20, considering margin of error).

IMNSHO, this relatively small Rate T has so many wiggles so close together - its practically a guarantee we gonna have a non stop volatile circlejerk (punctuated by few moments of sheer horror) from here and all the way to Spring of 2023.

Projections of 21-23 Rate T:

June 21, Aug 15, Aug 29, 2022.    Dec19, Feb 13, Mar 6, 2023.

100 Weeks Box

UPDATE 3/31/2020

Half a year ago I wrote:
"NYSE is setting up either bullish or bearish pattern"
Now I can add:
"... or BOTH."

Technical analysis alone is not enough to successfully speculate in financial markets -
I figured that out long time ago, put out an article back in 2014 (post link) and
incorporated this thinking into my stock market dealings, permanently and without exception.
Here is why:

Double Dip T

In 2018, broad market indexes topped at the end of January, crashed and based over Spring, followed by mild and low-participation rally that managed to push S&P into nominal new highs. All that fizzled at the end of Summer and market, followed by economy, slid into double-dip recession which (hopefully) ended on Christmas Eve 2018.

Based on Advance-Decline statistics of NYSE, market exhausted itself on either August 29 or September 21, 2018 and went into cash buildup phase according to T-Theory.

Traditional placement of a center-post of the Time Symmetry (aka T) - into lowest reading of A-D for this cycle - produces 64 to 80 days of natural rally from the Low, projecting late April of 2019 High for Stocks. However, in recent years, this measurement had been inadequate - either pointing to a temporary pause in up-trend or to outright unremarkable period.

Surprisingly accurate results had been achieved by waiting for a Last low before the breakout of Advance-Decline line, although this judgement is quite subjective and open to interpretation.
Nevertheless, this Last low before the breakout of A-D line seemed to happened 3 days ago (last Friday March 8) and getting confirmation today (if it holds). Cash build-up phase for this T (appearing in green on a chart) is 114-130 days, projecting High in Stocks sometime in September 2019, with usual 10% margin of error...

... like I don't know that stocks always top and fall in the Fall...
... well, not always always, but typically they do...
...anyway...

2018 Spring T

Double top and double bottoms in NYSE Advance Decline line makes for too many possible top dates. I focus on a longest projection targeting mid-August top, unless recent lows gets taken out.
T-Theory has been spot on for few years now, with recent T's overrunning their projected top dates. This is an indication of a very strong, one way bullish market. Spring T of 2018 will show if it remains to be so.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am making this note before 2013 runs off the chart,
There is a possibility of a very large Rate T, spanning almost 10 years starting in 2013 - Teen Rate T.
30-Year Treasury Bond yield peaked at 3.93% on week of August 19 and then double-topped 15 weeks later at 3.97% on week of December 2, 2013. From there yield collapsed to 2.22% in early 2015 and produced a Rate T (I had it laid out here).

What if that was just a beginning? Next low, the lower low, came on week of July 5, 2016 at 2.1%. The span of left side of the T from highest high to lowest low is 135 weeks, with projection for "Low in Stocks" week of February 4, 2019. Plus / minus 10% margin of error of base range and keep in mind a previous high of interest rates 15 weeks earlier - rout in stocks can last from October 2018 till end of summer of 2019. Difficulty in projecting a very large, multi-year time symmetries is that ripples from price movement gets smeared over extended time-line and lose their predictive powers, making trading on this type of analysis very difficult in real time. I just want to take these measurements before data runs off a left side of free chart. Continue...

Apparent multi-year resistance at 3.2% level opens a variant of a "last low before the breakout".
Note: breakout has not happened yet. We may be in a process of it now, it may happen later or not at all.
The span of left side of the T is 196 weeks from highest high to last low of 2.65% on week of September 5, 2017, projecting a Low in Stocks around week of June 7, 2021. Since my crystal ball is fuzzy at such distances, I say period of softness in stock prices may last from spring of 2021 to summer of 2022.

In other words, bear market in stocks that started on January 29 of this year (2018) will last 4 long years and will bottom in a first half of 2022 somewhere south from here.
FML

... or
stocks rally thru summer 2018, perhaps making a nominal high above January top
then have a traditional crash in September - October, linger into Spring 2019,
double bottom or new panic lows in Summer 2019,
followed by face-ripping rally till the end of 2020,
culminated with mother of all bear markets in 21-22
... or
SNAFU

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Zooming in into 30-year bond yield, I am tempted by a Rate T in development since the beginning of 2017. Presented below is a double top around 3.2% in December 2016 and March 2017. First measurement pointed to week of March 5, 2018 with actual low in stocks arriving 2 weeks later (within the margin of error). The next projection hits on week of May 29. Beyond that i am not sure. To seriously consider 2 green time symmetries I need to see 3.2% level decisively taken out, but so is a Teen Rate T, with corresponding conclusions.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE 4/9/2019
RATE T of 2017-2019 seems to be completed now.
That last light-green symmetry is no longer valid, because it was based on "last low before breakout" notion.
Breakout at 3.2 yield has failed at the end of 2018.
With lower low in 30year yield at the end of March 2019 - there is a good chance that a new Rate T is underway. Destination unknown.

VIDEO: T Theory Observations for Summer 2017. Conflict T.

Conflict T projects summer top, while Rate T projects low of stocks. We may see some MOVES...

Winter T of 2016-2017 , mentioned in this video, is here:
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2017/03/video-winter-t-review-and-s-trend.html

Rate T projections of 2017 Low in Stocks was explained in December 2016 video:
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2016/12/video-t-theoty-observations-12-2016.html

VIDEO: Winter T Review and S&P500 Trend

In this video I review projections of Advance-Decline Time Symmetry with center post on December 1, 2016. This "Winter T' was originally identified in December (post link) and later updated in January (post link). Although i had some concerns about validity of this T, it worked out very well and guided stock market higher without any meaningful pullback.

There still remains a matter of unresolved "Nested T' with centerpost on January 19, 2017, identified only a few days after center post was fixed. Here, the initial projection is already satisfied, but "Nested T' displayed some strange behavior in a beginning of February, which leads me to believe that remaining projections for March 17 and especially April 4 will most likely target a low (give or take 3-4 days).

My Advance-Decline Indicator (MADI) is under 'Zero" line, indicating unfavorable period for stocks.
S&P500 Trend analysis, based on custom Keltner channels, shows market as overextended and on a cusp of imminent correction. Based on prior occurrences, this dip may be about 7% (or as far down as 2200SPX). Caution is required, accordingly I carry about 40% cash balance in main account, but my approach will remain flexible and subject to change based on constantly evolving variety of possible outcomes.

VIDEO: T Theory Observations 1-2017. Nested T.

Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

I discovered a small T, nested inside larger 'Winter T' (post link).
Also I updated target dates for 'Winter T', to correct for a discrepancy due to how my charting service accounts for future dates.

Any way I look at it - there is a period of heightened volatility in near future and no top projection dates past March 1, 2017

VIDEO: T Theory Observations 12-2016

Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

'Winter T' projects tops and bottoms for Stock Market in January and February 2017.
Upon closer inspection I discovered a T with center posts in November and possibly in December of this year. Because 'Winter T' is too short in duration, has questionable center post for 'Last Low' and some other concerns I explain in video - I don't consider these time projections as reliable for top placement. However, if Advance-Decline Line reverses and falls going into some of these dates - then there is a high chance that 'Time Symmetry' actually points to a bottom date and will be useful to find a buyable dip.

Considering that Rate T (post link) projects a Stock Market Lows in spring of 2017 and then again in summer, I think that there are opportunities ... for which cash will be needed.
I want to remind that T Theory is not a trading tool, but a 'range of options' that will have to be evaluated by other measures in real time.

VIDEO: T Theory Study 2012-2016

A 5 year study of T Theory - a method of analyzing general investment trends using time symmetry.
Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

From "A 1997 Introduction to T Theory" by Terrence Laundry:

'The Law of Matched Trend Time' basically states that duration over which investors can obtain 'superior equity returns' will always be equal to the previous time period in which returns were subnormal. A simpler way to put it is to say: the market can only 'make strong run' as long as it previously 'rested'.

As a result of this study... we run out of T...

 ...unless...

VIDEO: Rate T Report. 2015 Study

Completed 2015 Rate T correctly forecast 2016 market lows, by providing multiple estimates over period of time when buyable dips are likely to appear in S&P500.

This is based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry, who discovered these Rate T's back in 1970's (I think) and used this concept quite successfully for many years. Generally it states that a period of time it takes for interest Rates to fall from high to low is approximately equal to period of time from interest Rate low to important low in Stocks.
He acknowledged difficulties with accuracy of these projections since rates went into historic downtrend in 1980's and also during times of heavy intervention.

1st High to 1st Low in Rate = 1st Bottom in Stocks (in 2015)
Highest High to Panic Low in Rate = 1st Bottom in Stocks (in 2015)
Last High to Lowest Low in Rate = Final Lowest Low in Stocks (in 2016)

System 12 2-2014

 ------------------Internals Update--------------------
Its safe to assume that T12/2013 from this post (link) was blown out by new low on T-Theory Volume Oscillator. It went below -80, way lower than T12/2013 low, and recovered sharply - classic bottoming behavior. There was no positive divergence at bottom, so retest within 2 months is possible.
Interesting that new VOT2/2014 points to mid June 2014, just like VOT6/2013 I plotted back in December!
Spooky...

VO T 2/2014

System 12 BCM:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?WFC,RDS/B,NVS,MSFT,GOOG,PFE,JPM,JNJ,brk/b,ibm,ge|B|P5,3,3
MD Control dipped almost 6% from beginning of year, and still under-water as of 2/15/2014.
S12BCM started 1/28/2014, was down negligibly. Presently positive and accumulating.
(UPDATE: added JNJ on 2/20; BRK/B on 2/25; IBM on 2/27; GE on 3/6; BHP stopped out)

BHP, VOD, BAC, T

This is MD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,XOM,GOOG,MSFT,PTR,BRK/B,GE,JNJ,WMT,WFC,RDS/B,PG|B|P5,3,3

MD Control: CVX replaced with PG
I have:  GOOG, MSFT, WFC, RDS/B
PTR still disqualified.
RDS  not sure when earnings. Year end in Dec., results published in March?
BRK annual report in Feb-March?
WMT 2/20b

This is SD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?JPM,CVX,HSBC,PFE,NVS,IBM,CHL,TM,BHP,VOD,BAC,T|B|P5,3,3
I have: JPM, NVS, PFE
HSBC annual report in Feb?

Shopping list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,XOM,BRK/B,GE,JNJ,WMT,PG,hsbc,ibm,bhp,vod,bac|B|P5,3,3

UPDATE  2/22/2014
For  research purposes, I wanted to see optimized Daily MA's for System12 stocks. If 50/200 don't fit well, then 25, 80 and 100 seem to provide better signals. 100ma work for major multi-months trend continuation. 25ma work for early exit after multi-weeks uninterrupted advance. These results are preliminary, and require further testing. Still I don't have an answer on how to sidestep multi-month sideways chop. I guess it all depends on market conditions and what is available from MD and SD - meaning : if no better opportunities are offered, then its better to sit sideways and collect a dividend. I painted myself in a corner here...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82691261269

-------------------------------IN THE NEWS---------------------------
I already heard several times about companies that shoot new, smaller and faster satellites into space to provide photo and video images of Earth. Skybox and Planet Lab are all the talk, took 100mil of investments, but not public. There is DGI (+400% in 2 years), Orbital Sciences ORB (+200%) and bunch of others, not forgetting about Elon Musk's space rockets.
 "Starship Enterprise" (lol) will be the name of this theme.
http://www.spacenews.com/

Coffee is diseased with 'rust' - OMG!  TV says rust to blame for high coffee prices... Am I mad?...wasn't coffee in bear market for few years? I can't explain, but was looking at the situation for a while.

Peace talk with Syria broke down again... what are they negotiating...?

New T and Internals Update

First of all, there is this 3 year wide Nasdaq A/D T , that I've been watching for months and first wrote about here (link). Projected peak for NaADT11/2012  is late July - early August 2014.
Right next to it is new Volume Oscillator T12/2013. I think that shorter blue VOT12/2013 is a correct one, but reliability of this analysis is questionable, T-Theory had alot of misses lately as i noticed back in September in this post (link).

 ----------------------------------------------------
 A completely different look at Volume Oscillator weekly plot. Everything is different here

W VO T 2013

I see a possibility, that 'misses' of T-Theory in 2013 are entirely my own doing. Trying to fit T's into every zig and zag of market. Looking for action. Degenerate Gambler!  Volume trends are not a short term phenomenon, they take time, they can change, they are not constant. So I stepped back to try and see a damn forest.

In this post (link) back in May 2013 I plotted VOT 8/2011 with 1 year cash build up (series of lower highs and lower lows on Volume Oscillator), with multiple touches of down-sloping trendline and bull trap. Very similar to this VOT 6/2013.

VO T 6/2013

The center-post location is very different. Back in 2011 it was a very sharp 20% drop that felt like real bear-market. Summer of this year was nothing alike. I came into June'13 with sizable short position still under water and decided that "...market is not going down, so I have no business to hold shorts..." and became Non - Delta Neutral in this post (link). Then market went even lower. On OpEx day (link) I noted that :"All my A/D indicators are at "last stand" line. In recent past it led to hard V-type reversal." It did, although on June 25 (one day past the bottom) I was making parallels to 1987, noting "...how fast a pullback of a strong bull market turns into failure..." in this post (link). It was a period of high solar activity and geomagnetic storms, economic news where good, all other news where bad, Obama fired Bermonkey on live TV, and $VIX went to 21. That was the bottom.

Top? This is what I wrote 2 days before top on May 20: "Mostly all of internal divergences are gone, and aside from everything being overbought and obnoxiously bullish - there are absolutely no indication of immediate market top." I also laid out my case for being a Perma Bear in the same post (link). All the while I was holding hedge of at-least 3X position  size short via SDS, QID, HDGE, which end up costing me most of spring profits from longs. On May 22 I was 70% invested (post (link)

This year changed the way I think and trade in more ways than one. No one can successfully manage Kapital, while having this type of mush on a brain. Sucker...

-----------------------------------------

Weekly Nasdaq A/D Cumulative (mentioned above)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03531550066
My A/D indicator (NYSE) with BPSPX and SPXA50R
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39294453226
McClellan Suite: NYMO; NYSI; NAMO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04197492070
T-Theory Volume Oscillator
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81565637438
Risk-on /Risk-off ratios, aka Confidence indicator (FAGIX:VUSTX;  HYG:LQD;  $SPX:$USB)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAGIX:VUSTX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43022938657
Golden Indicator with World Ratios
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51708175586

http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/09/internal-indicators.html
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/04/internals-study.html
---------------------------------------------

1800

Holly Shit !  1800!
This thing is going parabolic, full retard to upside.

--------------------------------------------------

I've been looking at this Weekly Nasdaq A/D line for months. Its kinda different from other internal indicators, because it shows a cash build-up phase for all of 2011-2012, with low on Nov 12, 2012 and high on Feb 14, 2011. Projected peak end of July 2014. Reliability of this analysis is questionable, T-Theory had alot of misses lately, it may be unsuitable for run-away bull market conditions.

Of note (and may-be more actionable) is a negative divergence in oscillators between July and October peaks of A/D line. Daily version of  Nas A/D Cumulative plot also shows this divergence.
It's been my (non-scientific...lol) observation - this rally sucks.

Nasdaq A/D T 11/2012

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26632581400
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-17/taleb-blasts-bernanke-greenspan-warns-debt-raises-risk-catastrophe

ForeignAffairs



-------------

Update 11/26/2013
Just to illustrate how illiquid this market has become, here is a 5 minute chart of E-mini S&P contract ESZ13. Overnight markets are notoriously illiquid, as seen 10pm to 2am. Surprisingly similar price action clearly visible during previous day session - between 10am and 2pm, and especially so around  after 12pm and again around 1pm.

And again, even worse, on 12/10/2013

I have another personal observation. I've been watching ES streaming live chart for years. Its a lively, active contract, and machines loved it. You can still see them working at open and close, when candle starts jumping at incredible rate, bid/ask size fluctuates greatly, and trades come in 1000's of contracts. Other than that, I have not seen bot activity in Months!

 I am sure they are still there, executing strategies for arbitrage and working large orders in a way that it doesn't move markets much. I just don't see them the way I used to. Did machines walked away, or did they kill each other off, or may be they just waiting for command? That I don't know. For better or worse, the nature of this market has changed. I don't know what it means to me and my own Systems. That's all.

Internal Indicators

Being completely lost, as far as market direction is concerned, and invested at 50% - I want to review some key market indicators.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44764799133
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74347576066
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39294453226

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04197492070
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89369245088


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81565637438
Volume Oscillator T's continue to be unreliable in 2013. T4 and T6 missed the tops, and T8 is doing something wacky. Admittedly,  I couldn't recognize T8 bottom as it happened.

VO T April-September 2013

 Risk-on /Risk-off ratios, aka Confidence indicator (FAGIX:VUSTX  LQD:HYG $SPX:$USB)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAGIX:VUSTX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69808339952
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAGIX:VUSTX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02920481296


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51275941041

$SUPADP   $SUPUDP      S&P 1500 is a great index for breadth indicators because it combines the S&P 500, the S&P Midcap 400 and the S&P SmallCap 600

Here is a new idea (UPDATE 12/15/2013)
 $SPX:$GOLD used not as a ratio, but as SPX priced in Gold, aka Bullshit Indicator.
If its rising - all is good in the land of stocks.
If its falling - stocks are Bullshit!
also trying to look at following ratios without referring to S&P (plot not included in this study)
$SPX:EFA   $SPX:EEM   EFA:EEM seems to produce at-least 2-3 months trends
It is not necessary to invest in under-performing areas of the World
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51708175586

http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/04/internals-study.html

MATRIX 
Daily  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p71533435672
Weekly   http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41109488212
Volume Profile  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p89183620435


...................In The News..........................
All about gov. shutdown and debt ceiling. General opinion is that its much ado about nothing. They shut government down before, causing some turbulence, but then market quickly recovered. Debt ceiling debacle caused August 2011 collapse. I remember it well - debt-ceiling was lifted at the last moment, but market crashed anyway. So basically we are conditioned for a 'recovery' after....hold on, after what?

Here is ConvictScott:  (from here http://evilspeculator.com/?p=38564)

 Given that we have the money honeys and affiliated news clowns yabbering about the gubmint shutdown, the odds favor uncertainty with a strong chance of an epic short squeeze.

Just the same fucking circus as September 18 "No Taper" announcement. Everybody kinda agreed that 10-15bil taper of fed purchases would probably be good, and thats what fed was talking about all this time. I don't think they know what to do. I think there is a problem we are not aware of. Why? Market topped on that announcement, with general consensus that softness is temporary and recovery after... is most assured.

We have been going thru this nonsense for few years now. I am not sure if its always been like this. I can't learn all I need from history. My problem is that I have been investing during period after 2000, and don't have my own experience of secular bull market. Was it like this? An endless climb of wall of worry?

Agony of Perma-Bear. Or is it?

This Irregular small VO T 4/2013 will run out in about a week. I sketched it first almost a month ago in this post (link) . There is absolutely nothing beyond that, as far as T Theory goes. Mostly all of internal divergences are gone, and aside from everything being overbought and obnoxiously bullish - there are absolutely no indication of immediate market top.

        I am a Perma Bear. I don't generally trade like this, I've been mostly long or all long for years, while trying to pick important market tops along the way. How can one reconcile being long and Bearish on everything at the same time? Would it be better to suspend forecasting and just "trade set-ups"? Rubbish.
        Only people who been not paying attention to recent events, only people who don't care to think, only those why are busy chasing little dot up and down a screen - only those don't understand that financial markets are a total fucking scam. The only people who realize what is hidden behind a curtain are those who made money in markets, then lost it, than made it again, over and over until enough experience accumulated, lessons learned and independence earned by virtue of losing money. Call it tuition, call it play money or sacrifice to Market Gods - all the same. The only way to find out what works is to try it, and if it works long enough..., well .... I've been trading basically the same methodology for years, because it makes money on a money. System 9 Lite took it first trades almost 10 years ago, although back then it was System 5, followed by 6 and 7 - all of these are basically the same thing gradually getting  better.
        My generally very Bearish views are based on the facts that things are not what presented on Tee-Vee, in reality (where I live) everything is much-much worse, and not getting improved at all. Quite the opposite. Unless this objective reality will start to reflect some of  excitement of financial markets; or until stocks come into agreement with real downward wealth spiral (worldwide) - I will remain Perma-Bear, hopeful that change will come, but doing what I have to do for now.
         Absolutely THE biggest danger I see is a remote but catastrophic possibility of some kind of internet outage, combined with blackouts, massive hacker attacks and all kinds of problems that have to do with communications. The best investment anybody can make is to put aside enough cash to cover monthly expenses, keep it at home, with your gun, passport and bottled water. Can't say the same about  markets. Stop? How is stop will get triggered if internet is down? Can one expect to be able to get out in front of millions of traders, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, all of whom seemingly have the same risk controls? That is exactly how 1987 and Flash Crash of 2010 happened.
        I sold all of mine long term System 1 positions over a month ago (all except VWINX), because I know that unless I sell when I can, I will be selling what I can, and not on favorable terms. System 1 never had a losing year. System 9 was down over 30% in 2008, and down about 15% in 2011, but always recovered and made new high. My main System 9 Lite account is down 1-2% off its high right now, and I sleep like a baby.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE 12/22/2013
This documentary came out in September 2013, but I first saw it in December.
It eco's many of mine concerns and views, although I am much less socialistic.
 FOUR HORSEMEN is an award winning independent feature documentary which lifts the lid on how the world really works.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fbvquHSPJU


Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,BAL,NIB,JJG,QID,SDS,HDGE,MON,TSCO,sco,oih|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,drys,tnk,nm,tbt|B|P5,3,3
Also MJNA, HEMP, PHOT, MDBX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

Watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iyr,fb,imax,scty,DDD,SSYS,YELP,ANGI,PGH,FCX,VNM,REMX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ura,ccj,ppp,scco,lode,jo,lnn,hao,eza,cvv,entg|B|P5,3,3
Chinese crap from Fly:  SUTR, XIN, EJ

Solar Cycle Maximum

We got all kinds of good stuff in this United States government, you know...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a Space Weather Prediction Center http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/. Their forecast for end of May - beginning of June is actually mild :

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with moderate activity likely and a chance for high

activity levels throughout the forecast period. 

Still we had 3 X-Class flares in a row and more expected over next couple of days. I noticed how high solar activity and solar storms affected mass-psychology last year, but now I am taking notes. Some people will become over-active, talk too loud, show inadequate response to common stressers, while others will suffer from headaches, be tired and fatigued, and painfully annoyed by "crazies". I've seen this behavior during late spring - early summer 2012, and it coincided with increase in Solar activity. Correlation doesn't mean causation, but SPX lost almost 200 points during that period. Notable increase was in mid 2012 alongside 20%+ market drop, but pales in comparison to 2000-2002 period.

To further aggravate matters, Solar Cycle is expected to reach its maximum just about now.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008..., solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013.
Solar Cycles maximums generally coincide with market peaks, but not exactly to the day. Basically if there are some problems out there they will be exacerbated by increase in solar activity, but I wouldn't bet the farm on this one piece of the puzzle.

Some astrology from Raj - there is a certain Mars alignment that happened every time market crashed big. Mars opposite Rahu (exact) = 9/14/01! = 10/12/87! = 10/24/29!
 Its not a rare Mars aspect (happens every 1-2years), and it already happened yesterday on 5/13/2013, while market continues to rip higher. Last similar setup happened on 1/24/2013 and was a miss.
 http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/05/mars-and-dragon.html

Lastly on a menu of voodoo science is a new collection on fine T's.
I continue to study T Theory of Terry Laundry and decided to look back more than I did in latest Internals Study here (link). Below are classic T Theory Short Range T's, based on Volume Oscillator.
        Blue T8/2011 has Cash Build-Up Phase of over a year, and resolved very nicely in October of last year. Interesting phenomenon is a break of trend line in summer 2011 - a nasty bull trap I remember all too well, denoted by yellow oval. Do we have same condition now? Time will tell, besides I don't know if its a valid approach.
       Green T6/2012 has questionable Cash Build-Up Phase, and ended as a dud. Both T's have SPX rising on a left side of center-post, which is unnatural. Also the beginning of Cash Build-Up (initial spike) price area was retested going into center-post of new T in both cases. I doubt very much that I would recognize either T in real time, but following this logic I can see a new Red T setting up.
       Implications are: big drop is imminent targeting 1400 SPX area, followed by rally into 2014

Small VO T's from 4/29/2013

Internals Study

I am attempting (again) to organize a wide array of market internal indicators I use. The problem is - i have them set-up differently at home, at work and at house-by-the-lake. I still refuse to sigh-up for any subscription, including one to Stockcharts-dot-com, where I would be able to keep them set in their Public Lists. So i need to make them compact, and get rid of weak ones.

Here is another problem: T-Theory Volume Oscillator (18,36MACD of $NYUD) is very confusing to me, especially so when using for T's.  I thought its a dead end, but then realized that Im looking at "nested T" - small Volume Oscillator T with center-post at February 25th dip. VO T 2/2013 is about to ran out. Also on same chart: T 11/2012 is the same as BergamotT, but unlike NYMO, Volume Oscillator had a high in mid June and T projected right into Tax-day (give or take a day or two). Green "Irregulat T 4/2013" is missing secondary cash build-up phase and i don't know what to make of it.

This is all fine with benefit of hindsight, and seems to support endless rotation in sectors of S&P. This rotation is increasingly hard to predict and makes for very unhealthy environment, as evident by Confidence Indicator (FAGIX:VUSTX below) still diverging from S&P. This non-confirmation is already big enough, but can get bigger. Golden Indicator also diverging, but this configuration is very unreliable and I decided to ignore it for few weeks/months.

Two studies below deal with Advance/Decline analysis.
        McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) is basically 19,39 MACD of  Net Advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues on NYSE. I don't know what to make of it at this time, except that its pushing upper BBand, but at relatively low level. Percent of S&P stocks below 50MA shows a well pronounced divergence, as more and more stocks cannot get above their 50day MA. I wasn't watching Utilities, Staples and Healthcare that rallied strongly over past few months, and my watch-lists show disproportionate share of stocks that broke below 50MA and even already in their own bear market. Bullish Percent Index is similar, normally it lags by a month or two.

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         My Nasdaq A/D Indicator deals with Net Advances in more straightforward way. Its simply 5day EMA and 20day MA of $NAAD. Shaded area are periods when 20day MA is below 0, during which IWM is weak, and its coming back above 0 right now. Also significant lows where made on lower readings of 20dma than most recent in April. Divergence is visible since beginning of the year, and lately it also shows up in weakness of Nasdaq New High / New Low since March.

So I'm asking myself: Whats the bottom line? Really don't know, with so many negative divergences and internal weakness in SPX, Nasdaq, IWM etc, still market is not breaking down. In fact NYMO and My Naz A/D Indicator (MNA/DI) have room to upside and can support a 5-10% rally on major averages from here and last into end of May (if Irregular T 4/2013 works out). 

---------------------------UPDATE-------------------------

Following this post, Market rallied 6-7% and peaked on May 22.

Pretty good analisys....ha-ha

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At last here are two charts I watch intraday. The main version of MNA/DI and VIX. Volatility Index (VIX) looks really strange lately and I give it very little attention.

At close inspection I realized that I use 20 day Exponential MA on MNA/DI and tried to quickly redraw shaded areas in same manner as chart above. I will double check again tonight.

Positions, Bergamot T Out

Conservative Bergamot T run out in beginning of April.I arranged these center-posts back in January in this post (link).
Conservative T is anchored into violent V-shaped November bottom, and proved correct. Now the remaining questions are: will this be a double top with  higher or lower low, or some kind of "Null Echo" effect, or may be longer T into summer is not correct at-all. There where questions about validity of December center-post, because Nov 15 and Dec 28 bottoms are too far apart.
That aside, I consider this Bergamot T project a success. It guided me just fine since beginning of the year and I am looking forward to doing this again sometimes in future.

BOT:
4/9 - TRX 3.62 1/4pos
4/12 - HDGE 17.45 Half pos
4/18 - TSCO 105.79
4/18 - TRX 2.60 1/4pos
4/18 - SRS 19.65 Half pos
4/18 - SCTY 20.18 Half pos
4/18 - IMAX 27.74 Half pos
4/18 - HDGE 18.29 Half pos

Dividends received 4/12-4/19: CCJ, RGLD, Chemical Mut fund: $49.42 (whoopty doo)

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,BAL,NIB,QID,SDS,HDGE,SRS,FB,MON,tsco,IMAX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,trx,scty|B|P5,3,3

 Here are size and cost basis (incl commissions). 57% invested. Silver and PM miners group is 12%+ allocation, and losing 2.5% of account.
 
BAL  - 56.64 I was expecting Cotton to find support by now. More support down to 50. Weekly chart looks great - buyable dip right now. PFTargets: 51.50; longer term 89
FB    - 26.20 Chopping in a box. Support 24.70-25.70. Volume Profile (VP) improving in April.
FSCHX- 96.05 Half pos basis (25% mark-up)  $CEX stop under 368. CEX PFT 370met.  More PFT 450; 508-512.
IMAX - 27.87 Half pos.    This is possibly a Low Volatility Mover (LVM). Not a single close below 5wema for 4 months. Nothing overbought. I wanted to catch one of these for a long time. Trailing loose stop 25-26. Looking to add on strength above 28.     PFT 33; 37; 43.50
MON  - 107.17 Loss of momentum and weakness on VP. Support 97.50-98.50. PFT 98.50; 111; 133
NIB  - 29.39  Cocoa started on Mar 15, 2013 in this post (link), I bot on 3/20 and 28.  Support 29-30. PFT 37; 56
SCTY - 20.28 Half pos  PFT 28.50
TSCO - 106.06  PFT 108 (met); 126; 154
TSLA - 35.50 Half pos (38% mark-up) Short ratio came down to 13 from 21, but still 42% of float short!  PFT 41.50 and 52 met. More PFT 61; 67; 100

HDGE - 17.91
QID  - 26.49
SDS  - 45.24
SRS - 19.75 Half pos

SLV  - 28.20 Half pos
GDX - 37.61 Half pos (-23% dr-down)
SIL  - 17.80 Half pos
FNV  - 48.63 Half pos
RGLD - 68.96 Half pos
TRX -  3.04 Half pos  (-10% dr-down)

In The News:

GOLD - 4/23/13

NEW YORK--Goldman Sachs on Tuesday closed its recommendation to "short" gold, telling clients to exit bets on lower gold prices.

The bank had told its clients to bet on lower gold prices April 10.
 "Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists' forecast for a reacceleration in U.S. growth later this year," they said.

4/23/13 - Small Flash Crash
AP Twitter account got hacked and planted a story that two bombs detonated at the white house, injuring Obama. Lasted 5 minutes - 300,000cars ES and 50mil shares SPY. 

"Boss, we need to check the machines
No
Pleeease, we don't even know if they are working
No
Pretty please, just a few minutes
Ok, Ok, 5 minutes only
Yee-ha, hit it Lloyd!"

Half Point

Don't laugh, but this came to me in a dream.
Dreams and intuition are powerful subconscious tools, so I decided to investigate.

General idea is this:
During a low volatility bull market, there is a half point in price and time. It could be a flag, a measuring gap or something else. At the time it looks like a small top, with divergence in indicators, failed break-out or support and strange volume pattern. Understand - not all of these conditions must be met, as long as it looks topish and scary - it's a valid half point. This can last from few days to few weeks. I think we just had that Half Point. Now and most importantly - half point is confirmed by a powerful move, with recent top  taken out quickly and on volume.
This did not happened yet.

Note:
I don't see how all this can be measured precisely, and I don't think its necessary. Just general understanding is good enough, as long as SPX takes out 1515 and continue up with low volatility.
No harm to calculate targets: 1600+ on SPX sometimes in March 2013.
But wait - there is a Bergamot T from this post (link) , which also points into March.
As Darth Gerb said: "Speculators should be finding hard data to speculate."
I checked, as soon as I woke up - it was hard

Bergamot T

I first notice this T back in October 2012 in this post (link). Although I called it Advance-Decline T, it's technically a McClellan Oscillator($NYMO)  T.
Now i am no expert in T Theory, but from what I remember of work of  late/great Terry Laundry this one is a finely brewed Bergamot T.  His famous Advance-Decline(A/D) Oscillator looked really really similar to NYMO, and since he never revealed how exactly he calculated the thing, well, NYMO it is.

Traditionally, T has a centerpost at A/D split double-bottoms. The problem with this is that Nov 15 and Dec 28 bottoms may be too far apart, not only in time but also in price level of NYMO. Even forget about oscillator, SPX hardly looks like double-bottom. All that aside it projects into summer 2013, which is entirely possible.
Conservatively, T starts at left bottom, and since it is  no doubt a V-bottom on SPX and extreme reading on NYMO - here you go - rally into spring. T End Date will be sometime in April, I will figure out the date when we get there.
Overall it looks like the same scenario as two previous years - ramp into spring, summer range, double or multiple top and crush.
More tea, dear Sir?

 

Later that day we had a wonderful discussion here:

  http://evilspeculator.com/?p=33211#comment-766669115

Darth_Gerb replied to you

All very good.  and I reviewed the old chart just to refresh.
The smallest T, ending soon, I fully agree with.
The descending NYMO highs created the thick brown line, and the plunge to -100 and resultant skyrocket up, created a break in that line, which defines a shift from accumulation to distribution.
The other two larger T's however nice, I disagree with and I'll share my opinion and what I've learned from  Terry.  The low near NewYears was not low enough.  In fact it doesn't even qualify at -40.  Go look at the earlier 2 year chart.  only lows of -80 would I consider.  Terry said, "if a low doesn't go low enough, then the rebound is weak, typically in creating a fail setup where there just isn't enough buyers and confidence to go higher."
The T into spring has a shot at being legit, but there is no guarantee where the price of SPX would be at that time.  It would be something to jot down in your notes/calendar 'to keep an eye on'.  Otherwise, you've got T theory in your blood.
-DG