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Tuesday, March 7, 2023

MatrixCV Chart Book

ChartBook post will be continuously updated with latest analysis for issues in current MatrixCV watch List.

 ...developing...

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SPY 2022-2023 Box is better defined un-adjusted for dividends. There have been several payouts since the War began in February 2022, that moved prices far out of alignment.

Below is previous version of SPY War Box, drawn in early March


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TAN Solar Box 2021-2023


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Uranium etf URA in this post (link) - "Case of Uranium"

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 Buying half of position SHOP in this post (link) - "Shopify on the fly"

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ETSY vs AMZN 1 year drawn up



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Sunday, March 5, 2023

Shopify on the fly

 SHOP developed this 8 months long 40/30 Box after a huge 80% drop off of November 2021 high.

I attempted to buy first breakout and wrote about it on August 2022 in this post (link):

"July-August rally in SHOP was impressive 50% advance that failed spectacularly on August 11. Since then, price returned into the box and sliced 50dma on the way down like it wasn't even there. 40 area remains as resistance and still can be used, but 42-43 is better to be sure. I bought half position in simulator on August 3, just as it was advancing over 40, and sold it today for 20% loss. Original stop was under 30."

October collapse from the Box was quickly reversed, accompanied by impressive volume. Price went for another breakout attempt, but run out of steam in 40-45 area by early December. What followed was only a partial decline on December tax-loss selling - it didn't reach the bottom of the Box at 30, and eventually found some support at 50dma in first weeks of 2023.

If price finally broke-out of 40/30 box on January 23-25 with big volume, then what we are having right now is a first re-test of prior resistance, that now expected to act as support.

Word of caution - SHOP is really fly' - this thing is crazy volatile and moves 20-30% monthly for no good reason at all.
On this move, it can go to 36 and still be bullish, or open at 46 tomorrow and never look back.