Daily Global Economic Calendar

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Monday, April 22, 2013

Positions, Bergamot T Out

Conservative Bergamot T run out in beginning of April.I arranged these center-posts back in January in this post (link).
Conservative T is anchored into violent V-shaped November bottom, and proved correct. Now the remaining questions are: will this be a double top with  higher or lower low, or some kind of "Null Echo" effect, or may be longer T into summer is not correct at-all. There where questions about validity of December center-post, because Nov 15 and Dec 28 bottoms are too far apart.
That aside, I consider this Bergamot T project a success. It guided me just fine since beginning of the year and I am looking forward to doing this again sometimes in future.

4/9 - TRX 3.62 1/4pos
4/12 - HDGE 17.45 Half pos
4/18 - TSCO 105.79
4/18 - TRX 2.60 1/4pos
4/18 - SRS 19.65 Half pos
4/18 - SCTY 20.18 Half pos
4/18 - IMAX 27.74 Half pos
4/18 - HDGE 18.29 Half pos

Dividends received 4/12-4/19: CCJ, RGLD, Chemical Mut fund: $49.42 (whoopty doo)


 Here are size and cost basis (incl commissions). 57% invested. Silver and PM miners group is 12%+ allocation, and losing 2.5% of account.
BAL  - 56.64 I was expecting Cotton to find support by now. More support down to 50. Weekly chart looks great - buyable dip right now. PFTargets: 51.50; longer term 89
FB    - 26.20 Chopping in a box. Support 24.70-25.70. Volume Profile (VP) improving in April.
FSCHX- 96.05 Half pos basis (25% mark-up)  $CEX stop under 368. CEX PFT 370met.  More PFT 450; 508-512.
IMAX - 27.87 Half pos.    This is possibly a Low Volatility Mover (LVM). Not a single close below 5wema for 4 months. Nothing overbought. I wanted to catch one of these for a long time. Trailing loose stop 25-26. Looking to add on strength above 28.     PFT 33; 37; 43.50
MON  - 107.17 Loss of momentum and weakness on VP. Support 97.50-98.50. PFT 98.50; 111; 133
NIB  - 29.39  Cocoa started on Mar 15, 2013 in this post (link), I bot on 3/20 and 28.  Support 29-30. PFT 37; 56
SCTY - 20.28 Half pos  PFT 28.50
TSCO - 106.06  PFT 108 (met); 126; 154
TSLA - 35.50 Half pos (38% mark-up) Short ratio came down to 13 from 21, but still 42% of float short!  PFT 41.50 and 52 met. More PFT 61; 67; 100

HDGE - 17.91
QID  - 26.49
SDS  - 45.24
SRS - 19.75 Half pos

SLV  - 28.20 Half pos
GDX - 37.61 Half pos (-23% dr-down)
SIL  - 17.80 Half pos
FNV  - 48.63 Half pos
RGLD - 68.96 Half pos
TRX -  3.04 Half pos  (-10% dr-down)

In The News:

GOLD - 4/23/13
NEW YORK--Goldman Sachs on Tuesday closed its recommendation to "short" gold, telling clients to exit bets on lower gold prices.
The bank had told its clients to bet on lower gold prices April 10.
 "Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists' forecast for a reacceleration in U.S. growth later this year," they said.

4/23/13 - Small Flash Crash
AP Twitter account got hacked and planted a story that two bombs detonated at the white house, injuring Obama. Lasted 5 minutes - 300,000cars ES and 50mil shares SPY. 
"Boss, we need to check the machines
Pleeease, we don't even know if they are working
Pretty please, just a few minutes
Ok, Ok, 5 minutes only
Yee-ha, hit it Lloyd!"

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