Not-So-High High Yield

I always try to keep some high yield dividend paying component in System9 account.Stocks are usually no good, as there are many scams. The rest is a bunch of mortgage reit's, oil trusts,  etc that pay for months, but then suddenly drop 30-50% in a day. Then there are telecoms..., but I already have them in mut fund. So an idea is to stay with liquid names, etf's with low(er) expense ratio, but with a hand on ejection button.

I have utilities fund, AMLP, IYR
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AMLP,FIUIX,IYR,PSP,REM,HYLD,SDIV,dvy,HYG,JNK,LQD,PCY|B|P5,3,3

PSP is Listed Private Equity from PowerShares. Exp over 2%. Yield 13% paid quarterly.
REM is residential and commercial mortgages from iShares. Exp under 0.5%. 36 holdings. 10-15% quart.
IYR is real estate stocks and reit's. Same expense, but only 4% yield quarterly.
HYLD is actively managed corporate junk bonds from AdvisorShares. Exp 1.25%. Yield 8% monthly.
SDIV is dividend stocks from GlobalX. Exp 0.58%; yield 6%

Thinking about switching from IYR to REM, and add PSP
but softly. My schemes have been blowing up lately

System 12 and more

 BOT:
7/24  - COW 26.97 Half pos size. Livestock etn to continue agricultural theme (which is currently is atleast in doubt). After a triple-bottom in spring it break-out over 26.50 and 50dma. Buying half on first reaction, to see if it can hold 50dma and go over declining 200dma.
8/8 - PPP 4.73 Adding new position to Gold Miners portfolio. Good relative strength. 1/4 pos size.
8/9 - RGLD 54.78 Adding half pos, now i have a full pos on.
8/9 - TWM 15.45 Double short Russell2000 (IWM)
8/13 - YELP 51.70 Incredibly strong mo-mo chart. There is something going on. Tight stop.
After stop out on 8/15 at 48.02, I re-entered on 8/21 at 50.24
8/19 - SSYS 102.10 Half pos. Starting one more 3D printer company on first reaction after 52week high. Really not a good entry point.
8/20 - TSCO 120.27. Re-entering trade after stop-out at lows on 8/15. Now I have to chase, and I still can't make up my mind if its a strong stock or not. Its one of last remnants of agricultural theme, currently very much in doubt.
8/21 - KEX 84.44 Biggest shipper of all in strong uptrend. Buying dip. If fails there are few levels of support to re-enter in 75-80 area. UPDATE: Stop out on 8/30 at 81.22.
8/23 - UCO 36.97 Long oil. Price pattern only, I don't care about Syria. PFTargets for WTIC 114, 128-129
8/23 - GDX 30.30 Buying another half pos size
8/28 - SRS 23.35 Shorting Real Estate, IYR is proxy.

 SLD:
7/26 - TBT 74.58 Selling last half position bought on 5/17 for 12+% gain. Now I have a 1 full pos, bought on 7/10.
8/1 - CCJ 19.72 on stop.  Looking to pick a bottom of that 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom box.
On 8/8 I re-entered at 19.63, thinking that i got shaken out for no reason at-all, but was stopped out again on 8/19 at 19.49 for a small loss.
8/13 - FB 37.12. Take profit on half pos.
8/14 - SCTY 36.23. After ER on 8/5 this is completely fell apart, even with solars (via TAN) strong. Close this half position (bought on 6/28) for 5% loss. SCTY made me alot of money this year, let it cool a bit.
8/15 - TSCO 116.97 Stop out at the lows. Will re-enter.
8/15 - TK 38.04 Weak shipper. Taking 5% loss.
8/20 - VNM 18.23 Exit this half pos size trade at almost 7% loss. Emerging markets are bust.
8/20 - TWM 16.12 Exit position bought on 8/9 for small (less than 5%) gain. Shorting R2K is hard.
8/23 - TBT 80.40 Exit full pos for 5% gain. Looking for re-entry.
8/23 - SDS 37.78 Exit position from 5/16 for 3% loss, although SPX is at almost same level. Thats leveraged etf decay, plus I am shorting the Bull Market.
8/28 - NM 6.24 Half size out. Taking profits on rip. PFT 7 and 7.50 remains.
8/28 - EWJ 11.11. Small loss. I am confused about Japan, yen, and difference between $NIKK and EWJ.
8/29 - UCO 38.73 Taking quick 4% profit on oil. Looking for re-entry.

Dividends:
7/25 - FNV
7/31 - TK
8/29 - FNV

Positions  and watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,NIB,JJG,SDS,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,DDD,SSYS,FB,YELP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,PPP,NM,TBT,VNM,AMLP,COW|B|P5,3,3

System 12 Update

Earnings season is over and it did alot of damage. Many Mega Dozen (MD) and SD stocks are under 50/200 day MA's and I am looking  to buy if/when they recover. Failure here would be catastrophic for markets worldwide!

This is MD as of 8/16/2013.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,xom,GOOG,BRK/B,MSFT,JNJ,GE,WMT,CVX,WFC,PG,chl|B|P5,3,3
Of note - AAPL took top spot  for first time since mid-2012. RDS is replaced by CHL, they are very close together, but RDS is recently disqualified.  XOM took a hit under 200 and 50ma.
XOM, GOOG, MSFT, WMT, CVX, RDS are all under 50dma, and BRK is right on it.

This is SD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?rds/b,ptr,hbc,tm,ibm,jpm,pfe,t,bhp,nvs,ko,bbl|B|P5,3,3
RDS, PTR, IBM, T, BHP are disqualified.  JPM, PFE, HBC, NVS, KO are under or at 50dma.  BBL and BHP is the same company, with BBL just a bit over 200dma. Second Dozen is basically poop.

MD+ 8/16/2013

BTFT positions: (3 available slots)
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?BRK/B,CVX,GE,GOOG,JNJ,PFE,TM,wfc,xom|B|P5,3,3
XOM, GOOG, CVX  - liquidate or by-pass. These from MD.

Available - AAPL, PG, CHL, HBC(from SD)

S12T has XOM (blown all stops and out of PP) and WFC. Looking to add all available and also BRK, GE, JNJ.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,PG,CHL,HBC,BRK/B,GE,JNJ|B|P5,3,3

Positions

Geomagnetic Storm continues for forth day non-stop. Its felt all around.
I received new funds for main account (LB). Now I should have enough money to run System 12 with single unit size, which is half of my standard position size.
I also got a new account (Z) to manage. Its very small, but has dual purpose. About 20% to be invested in Marijuana stocks, with the rest (only 3 full positions size) into dividend and interest producing instruments.

This is one helluva rally since June 24 bottom 1560SPX, up 100 points and getting overbought.
Is this a new structural bull market that will last for 20 years? That's what everybody is talking about.
I still have doubts.

BOT:
7/5 - DDD 46.61 Half pos. Wanted to get it for a long time, but always miss a good entry point. Want more.
7/8 - FB 24.67 Half pos. Its like 5th time I buy it in 25 area.
7/10 - TBT 76.50 1Full pos. Adding to half pos, now I have 1.5 - too much - and it doesn't look good at close.
7/10 - DDD 47.89 Half pos. Adding on a way up.
7/10 - AMPL 18.02 Also in new Z account.
7/12 - TZA 26.19 Half pos of 3x short if IWM. May add more. Looking for 2-3 days down to under 100IWM.
7/19 - NM 5.73 Adding half pos on a way up. Now i have full pos on.

SLD:
7/17 - TZA 25.62 Stop out for small loss - getting run over by bulls. Next time using TWM (2x short Russel2000) for less leverage and uniformity of positions.
7/18 - SRS 19.42 Sold way past any reasonable stop for 8.5% loss.
7/18 - SDS 36.89  Half stop-out.

7/15 - dividends received CCJ, PGH
7/19 - dividends received RGLD

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,NM,TK,TBT,VNM,AMLP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,JJG,SDS,SRS,TZA,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,DDD,FB,SCTY|B|P5,3,3

Positions with cost basis size. (including commissions)
 JJG   1.03    This is my 3rd time going for grains from this post(link) . Since 1/8/2013 I only lost money on it, current position down 5%. I am being stubborn. Watching 48  for support.-- sliced thru it on 7/24, now watching for reaction. We are in or around 3-year lows on grains and all agriculture (via DBA).
BAL  0.55    I first bought Cotton at 56-57 in March, and lost 10% with exit 51.66 on 5/23 here(link). Ultimately support 50 held and 55 was retaken, and weekly chart still looks good. Then I bought Half pos size for 54.58 on 7/3 here(link) to see if I can trade it quicker, but maybe I not going to have to. Being right and loosing money... Hmm.... PFTargets on both sides, but longer term still 89

 NM  0.94  ER 8/19.  P/E 4!  P/B 0.49! My main concern was very high volume 10%+ moves since May 20. Makes it impossible to have a close stop, but it held nicely sideways, although with some Volume Profile (VP) deterioration.  PFT (5.40 met); 6.55; 7 and 7.50
TK 0.94   ER 8/5. Bot on 6/17 for 40.11. That was late stage breakout that failed on 2nd day, since then recovered. Possibly trending LVM, with some of the lowest Volatility in Main Account 1.62%W; 1.88%M. Need to go to 42 to confirm. Cluster of upside PFTargets 43; 45.75; 49, followed by 58.50.
Shippers are a strong group that nobody is talking about, even with BDI on a rise. Here is more: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TGP,TOO,TDW,GMLP,CKH,CMRE,STNG,DSX,drys|C|C20

 FNV 1.05  ER 8/7amc
GDX 1.49
RGLD 0.57  ER 8/8bmo
SIL   0.53
SLV  0.97
TRX 0.51  8.7% of float short. SR 19!

AMLP 0.96
CCJ 1.06  ER 8/1bmo. No shorts. On a weekly chart its a box 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom. Good VP. Generally anything north of 16 is ok with me, but for now I see support 21-20.50; my stop 19.75. If hit will look to pick a bottom of that box.
DDD 1.03  ER 7/30bmo.  27% of float short! SR 5.7
FB 0.50 ER 7/24amc.  No shorts.
EWJ 1.02
FSCHX 0.5
SCTY 0.51  ER 8/5.  17% of float short, but SR only 1.8. Price stands at 70% above 200dma and up 350% from 52W low - BEWARE!
TSCO  1.15 ER 7/24amc. I think its a confirmed trending LVM, with 2.09%Weekly and 2.22%Monthly volatility.
VNM  0.52.   If 18 is lost, I have to be out.

SDS    0.92
SRS  1.06  First I shorted Real Estate on 6/19 here(link) and stopped out with small loss. Then I took failed breakout on 7/3 here(link). Then it gaped past my Close stop above 67IYR on 7/11 and I exited only to buy it back next day at exactly same price. Effectively, SRS has 21.21 cost basis and a complete clasterfuck.
TBT  1.57
TZA 0.53

Incidentally, JJG, all gold and short positions would be disqualified under rules of System12 (under 200dma); also VNM, while barely qualified, still would not be available (under 50dma).

On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.

 Over the next couple of hours I moved  some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
 HAO   - 24.16
 RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn? 
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03  Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO  - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
 2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26  - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what?  VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):

           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing? 

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.
           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.
           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

Happy New Year

1/2/2013
Boy, am I glad for taking early exit on my shorts on Monday. Sometimes it's better to be lucky...

12/31/2012
First I did this:
     XHB is setting up nicely. Started a position with easy stop under today's low. BOT: 26.20
Than:
       I am seriously considering to close my QQQ short early. That would be "breaking the rules", cus neither  stop nor objective are hit.
And finally:
       Out of shorts.
 (Including SRS at loss, and final piece of ZSL. Silver short runner failed, but total profit from "Silver Bullet" that started on 12/14/2012 here is quick 8% in 2 weeks. Good)
 Holiday or not, if this doesn't fail - we have a valid reversal. A/D, VIX, bonds - all in agreement.
IWM strong, homebuilders(XHB) lead, emerging markets (EEM) didn't even blink, retailers (XRT) reversing strongly. I thought post-Xmas retail is dead, guess not.
I'm not doing anything today, but SIL is the one to watch
The day is not over, lets see what she can do

12/27/2012
This is Santa Clause Rally. No?
O, I know. This is sideways consolidation, because of Cliff. No?
Short squeeze coming? With 2.7mil cars on ES - there are no bears to kill. No.
How about 100 Samurai aka QQQ. This chart is a BBands madness, but I see a brick wall resistance at 66 and no strong support.
Inflection point? It does't get any better than this. Yes.
Short via QID at the moment

 Later that day I bought EEM @ 43.50  without any specific reason. It was just stronger than anything out there and I had too many shorts. I wrote here (link):
             "Buying EEM. Stop  under 43.
             Lets see what she can do"

1st Day above 1425spx. Positions 12/11/2012

BOT:
12/7 - SLV 32.02 (stop 31-31.50)
12/7 - SIL 22.50
Both fell a bit since I sold them at the end of Nov.
12/11 - JJG 55.92 1/2pos (stop 54)
Just as I was buying grain etf, wheat knifed lower by 3%, crashing both BBands in process. All three grains are NOT in uptrend, but show some signs of bottoming. I fully expect to be stopped out today or tomorrow, but will reenter at lower price.
12/11 - SRS 25.02 Still a special case. IYR H&S from this post seems to be busted, but price action is still lousy and XHB is simply falling apart. I can't find any other bear etf to short homies

Positions:  (still keeping cash at about 30%)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,EEM,MOO,SMH,XLU,PPH,$CEX,IHI,slv,sil,SRS,JJG|B|P5,3,3

On Market:
      Some of my positions are blasting thru BBands. It's not a small stuff, but etf's like EEM and SMH. And I see a bunch of others doing same. At this point the only way this trend continues is up and up without pause. Not something we see very often.
Santa may be lost...
      So we barely pushed above 1425SPX, but picture is questionable. Reaction will come at some point, just as it always does, and 1400 is a definitive support.  We will be lucky if it stops at 1400, see PF chart for clarity.
If 1400SPX broken than all this business will become a giant bull trap. We are not as far as it seems.
      Bonds are at bottom of the box on 25day/4hr chart. Daily is in a middle of sloppy range. There may be a trade there. Watching.

Cancel Christmas

SLD:
12/5 -  XHB @ 25.54 re-entry possible
12/4 -  XRT on stop 62.65
12/4 -  KRE @ 27.34 financials are still of interest to me.

BOT:
12/4 - SRS @ 27.34 trying to short IYR (real estate) again. Price-chart only, no personal opinion.

Ho-Ho-Ho
         Over past few days I visited several stores. Department store, clothes seller and jeweler where absolutely empty. Not slow, empty. Walmart is busy, but people buying groceries and necessities at WMT. I haven't been to mall yet.
        This is not the only reason why I sold XRT. Consumer sectors took quite a beating in November. They recovered very well, but now are against the former resistance. With lousy price action over past few days, I was taken out on tight stop.

Consumer
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLY,VCR,FXD,XRT,RTH,IYC,XLP,VDC,IYK,PBJ,wmt|C|P5,3,3
Consumer International
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$DJW,RXI,CHIQ,INCO,BRAQ,KXI,ECON,IPS|B|P5,3,3

Lets see how far this down move will go.  There are no short consumer ETF's. There is no short interest of note. The way I see it - there is nobody out there to cushion the fall.

Positions, Changes, Watch List 12/3/2012

70% invested. All long

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,EEM,KRE,MOO,SMH,XHB,XRT|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLU,FIUIX,PPH,FPHAX,$CEX,FSCHX,IHI,FSMEX|B|P5,3,3
(etf's are not a positions. For tracking intraday only)

SOLD:
 11/23 - 1x-pos IWM at 1st target 80.23. Still have a full position on.
11/27 - SIL @ 22.88. No re-entry.
11/27 - CG on stop 24.95. Re-entry possible, just need to close over 25.50.
11/30 - SLV on stop 32.55

IYR is a special case now.
11/28 - Sld on stop 62.45 and desided to reverse.
11/28 - Bot SRS @ 26.61
11/30 - Sld SRS on stop 25.81
These stops may be too close. Looking to short if it breaks down from here

 

Watch List

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IYR,CG,SLV,IBB,XLF,XLB,PHO,XLI,KOL,SLX|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?fxi,hao,ifn,vnm|B|P5,3,3

I Bergamot BOT: XHB, IYR, XRT

XHB - 1/2 pos - stop 19.45
IYR - 1/2 pos - stop 59.35
XRT - stop 58.90
see video tonight for whats happening to A/D indicator, ES support-resistance, weekly chart, VIX.
Next on buy list is HYG as early as friday.