Panem et Circenses

     What the hell was it yesterday, on 2/27/13?
First of all, it had nothing to do with housing data. Reaction at 10am was timid at best. What happened was a relentless short squeeze, as /ES open interest stood at whooping 3.16mil cars. Can't wait until 9am to see if it gotten smaller - I don't see how people would not cover shorts after this. Now, with late-comer longs already stopped-out, its a time for over-eager shorts to be taken to woodshed. Besides, how can anybody have a directional forecast with gigantic moves on VIX, big-range up and down days, and all political BS on both sides of the pond. Big boys are shaking the tree to see what dislodges, I don't want any part of it.

      I didn't exit QQQ short via QID. Although my stop was above 67Q, I decided to wait a bit. Q's still the weakest of indexes and sold-off heavy right before close. There will be no point of keeping this short above todays high and 67.80. I hate to hedge. Makes me so confused - am I long or short? It's like I am not limiting losses, but guaranty that I loose a bit whichever way the market goes. GRRR... One single position QID gives me so much headache, while GEO pushes into new high. Prisons is a leading industry? Buckweats...

UPDATE 2/28 AH:
SLD: QID 27.11  -4%
What a horrible mess I made out of this trade. It was all wrong, shorted at the low - covered at the high. What the hell am I thinking? This is not oops, this is bad-bad-bad.. Atleast I did it with 1pos only, so no big damage.

     Which brings me to ongoing Treasure Hunt.
Panem et Circenses is latin for "Bread and Circuses" (or bread and games). Pretty good place to start, considering a peculiar situation with grains and latest legislation about online gaming. Play legal poker online, while high on legal pot and who cares how expensive munchies are...

        Ag-complex
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,soyb,corn,bal,moo,tsco,de,cnh,lnn,mon,mos|B|P5,3,3
       Soy via SOYB is ready to go today - strongest of grains. JJG has to be bought back above 53. Cotton via BAL really doesn't belong to this group, but its strongest of all softs, buy above recent high. Although MON has a law-suit going on, hard to argue with its straight. TSCO need to buy asap.

    UPDATE 2/28 AH:
    BOT:
TSCO - 104.10
JJG     -  52.04 Half pos.   I really wasn't suppose to buy it until tomorrow, but all grains where strong in the morning. Put limit order for SOYB, but it was not getting filled. This is my third time going for grains.
BAL run away while I wasn't watching, now need to wait for pullback.
DRYS - 1.98 Half pos. I was staking it ever since breakout in January, with my eyes on 1.8-1.9 level. Needs to hold it.
FB     - 27.19 Half pos. Bot on close. High volume hammer. Last couple of days looked corrective. May be it will not get to 25.
FNV  - 48.36 Half pos
GDX  - 37.40 Half pos.
Damn the torpedoes! No stop for now. Bullish percent miners is at 3 or 4 for a reason - they all are in downtrend. Will watch for a day or two, then add.
I outlined some thoughts on PM and miners in previous post. Today's double bottom was too good to pass-up.  I was keeping an eye an FNV and RGLD. They are not so much miners, but a royalty companies. Last summer they where some of the first to bottom and then rally hard, for whatever the reason

To be sure - I am NOT buying the dip. I'm going into these selected situations, and lightly - most Half Position Size only.

       Gaming
BOT:
2/27 - MGAM  @ 18.30 half pos

       Pot-trade: I really need to have a detailed look at these companies
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

More on this later...

Battle of 1510 /ES Continues

1510 /ES presented itself as a resistance in a beginning of February and I noticed that this is where battle lines are drawn here (link).

Well-well, what do you know, this is really where they had the stops. ES had to go past 1510 and this morning System 10 kicked in. I'm using a lighter version, not futures, but SSO. So far so good.

Got step 1 of VIX buy signal.

My A/D indicator closed -470, and that is at-least short term bottom. It can come down some more, but i think most of damage is over.


During the day I surveyed a bunch of internets. Remember how everybody where waiting for a dip to buy? Well, the dip is here, and nobody is buying.  People are bearish as shit, talking about Mark Fabers' down 20%, Tom Demarks' 9-13's.   Nobody is talking about Bergamot's 1600+
Good, that is just how I like it.

          What if I'm wrong? What if 1510 can not be taken over by bulls?
          It's possible.
But my thinking is this: to have a big selloff, the beginning of Bear Market we need broken support, or some kind of formation (double top or something), or moving average cross, or PF bear price objective, or blow-off on large volume... you get my gist. I see bearish engulfing / maribozu candles all over the place, but they have lousy reliability.  So far all I have is Canadian Time magazine cover and  2 of my friends who just found out that there is a Bull Market going on. No joke - people find out about this bull run only a week or two ago. Now they are thinking : "What to invest in?"

I figure we have until tax-day, the LATEST!
I am being very serious now - this bull run is on its last legs, but last leg is always explosive, so...
I am 80%+ invested, long stocks and grains, short bonds and oil until further instructions.

 I'm wondering what industry group will rally the most off this low? Homebuilders?
          BOT:
SSO
XHB
IYR
MJNA added a little at 0.25, just like planned here (link)

More on this later.

Battle of 1510/ES

The battle lines are drawn - 1510 ES is where its at.

SPX has been riding 5day/ema, with only 2 closes under it since the beginning of the year. The necessary correction...and bla-bla-bla.

Half Point from this post (link) seems to be working out, but missing one important ingredient - no powerful up-move. May be its still ahead. European data came overnight, and its shit - so ES and Euro selling off. Traditional pattern this year - down in the morning, up into close.


They want to raise minimum wage to $9/hour. Finally. I've been pounding the table for past 2 years that only delusional nouveaurish may believe that anybody can survive on 7.25. Living wage? You've got to be fucking shitting me...

I am 100% invested. All long equities, short bonds and Silver. Can't sleep, constant nightmares, wake up drenched in sweat every night. Its not easy. Is it ever?
Here is highest short interest ETF's, aka "People who owe me money":

BOT:
2/12 - TSCO 103.57 ag-complex
2/12 - RSX 30.33 half pos for emer markets group
2/12 - EWS 13.88 half pos for emer markets group
2/13 - FB 27.76 Half pos
2/14 - FB 28.60 Half pos. Now I have a full position. Trailing close stop. If this turn doesn't hold - FB goes to 25, where I will look to buy it again.

SLD:
2/11 - FIUIX  19.48 half sold
2/12 - FIUIX 19.48 Utilities all out. Total profit 15.5%.
2/14 - IBM 199.50 (S12T)  $-64.50       Its the weakest of System 12 stocks. Although exit criteria is not met, I am flat out of money and wanted to add to FB, so decided to dump Big Blue at small loss.
2/15 - ZSL 50.60 Half pos out. Silver at support. I have to consider overnight and long weekend risk.
2/15 - FSCHX 125.19 Sold 1pos size, still have 1full pos on. $CEX looks like possible double top. Don't want to hold too much, plus I need money.
2/15 - XLE  78.09  almost B/E (-0.7%)  Don't like intraday action. May be it's OPEX, but there is a problem with oil complex, i just don't know what this problem is.
2/15 - CVX (S12T) 114.19   $-47.75   Same reasons as IBM and XLE
2/15 - CG 35.59 Half of half (1/4size) out. High volume, failure of late-stage intraday breakout. This thing gone parabolic. wow

Note 2/18 - I sold enough, to the point that I can sleep again. And I have almost 3 pos of cash to allocate to TAN, SCTY and possibly add to JJG.
Have some other ideas too - short oil and gas, add to pot-trade on reaction, start graphite. In a process I may liquidate remaining S12T positions - I was right, I was getting ahead of myself, but the problem is not expectancy of System 12. The problem is under-capitalization.

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,$CEX,CG,TSLA,JJG,TBT,SLX,IBB,SCTY,CCJ,MON,fb|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EZA,HAO,EWS,RSX,GEO,TAN,XLE,ZSL,TSCO|B|P5,3,3
Marijuana
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3
MJNA, HEMP, PHOT entered. AVTC not sure, may buy it again. Total allocation Half pos. Will buy more on dip.
Orders set for half-out at double of entry price.

Note on MJNA:
  It will either breakout in 2-5 days (unlikely) or will go down to 0.3-0.25 in order to stop-out late buyers, who came in on Feb 1st.
People will see 40-50% loss, panic and sell their shares to me.
I'm just a little yellow fruit, and this is how I roll :-)

Rotten Apple

BOT:
1/24 - SCTY 16.08 Half, now I have full position
1/24 - IBB 144.51
IBB - biotechnology ETF.
Building a bull flag, challenging last years high.
Not sure if this is a good spot to buy, it can correct to 140-142 and still look good. If that happens - this bull flag on daily chart will most likely morph into something else.
Watching 1st hour.
IBB sold off at open every day since 1/10 without exception. Change in this behavior will be a major tell

This rotten AAPL reported yesterday after close, and collapsed by 10% AH on pretty big volume.
I generally don't trade earnings and I haven't traded AAPL in a long time, but I really wanted to buy it yesterday thinking that it already fallen alot and bad news should be discounted by now. Guess not.

Also from yesterday:
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=33410#comment-775659947
ES open interest suddenly jumped to 2.9mil cars.
I maintain the view, that increase in open interest means an increased demand for shorts. I cannot believe this! People getting short into this non-stop ramp, or I am completely wrong on this "open interest" premise? I understand that correction of few percent will come sooner or later, but to make a short trade over past 2 days would require knowledge and skills I do not possess.
SPX
I haven't seen Mole's famous PF chart. Must be in sub-only section...
How long it can go on? I have 1600ish. Too high? Mole's 5 point PF target is 1690 and keeps growing !
This shit should be illegal, but it works
Until it doesn't
These two MA I have... they will cross again...someday...
Molecool pointed out:
 "Well, I checked a year ago and the P&F then was suggesting 1500+. So never forget that these are LONG term charts. A lot can happen in between."
I replied:
 Thats true.
My PF also had target of 1482, but then my MA's crossed and that would be an exit right before tax-day. ''Would" - because I did not use this chart back then. It became a part of my system last summer, thanks to you btw.
Point-and-figure charts from yesterday and rally in the beginning of last year :

Convictscott writes:
           ''The thing is that it is part of human bias to want to "get it right" and pick tops. It gives our ego a stroke. So for that (and other) reason the counter trend setups subjectively nearly always LOOK MUCH BETTER than the higher probability with trend setups.

It is extremely rare for a major top not to be retested. You should never get short a higher timeframe trend until this happens.''
Couldn't say it any better myself

Pearls of Wisdom of Jesse Livermore's fame:

"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
"It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape, establish your resistance points and be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you have determined it.
But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself – that is, against human nature."
"The game does not change and neither does human nature."

Positions, Watch List. 50% invested.

Positions:  (50% invested)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,EEM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,jjg|B|P5,3,3
$CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX

 Watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?spy,geo,kol,slx,ige,tan,scty,drys,uga,orb,gsvc,ddd|B|P5,3,3

BOT:
1/8 - JJG 51.98
 1/4 - IWM 87.05 (2x pos)
 1/3 - TSLA  35.40
 1/3 -  FB     28.13
On Monday 1/7/13 ES open interest actually went Down! Short-covering, like I haven't seen in a while.
 I see 2.766mil cars on ES today and if people getting short it will show more tomorrow.
People are looking for some kind of top. Skynard thinks "Big boys are selling into this crap", and I don't want to second-guess this great day-trader. Well, that's easy. Is that a H&S on hourly with target in 1440ish? Looks to be testing neckline now: (I used somebody's chart - "fear" annotation is not mine)

Only about a month ago I noted similar H&S (link) completed on 12/14/12, but didn't go to target and after initial break turned and went higher, only to collapse lower by end of December. What a cluster-fuck.
I actually made small profit in December, although I was mainly liquidating positions because of this Whipsaw notion. I will revisit this issue later, but visibly it was option #1 which later turned into cluster-fuck.
Can this all collapse now? I am not sure.
Trans (IYT) has been left for dead for months. Breakout.
R2K (IWM) had a monster rally, regardless of neg div, overbought etc. Breakout.
VIX, A/D and so on... all this is crazy bullish. And we didn't close the gap, we didn't even check that New-Year open yet. "Yet" is the key word here.
The way I see it, whatever correction we will get here - it has to be bought with reckless abandon. I will trade accordingly.
May be grains bottoming. Soybeans rolled into March contract and 1395ish is the level to watch.
Trying JJG again @ 52. I stopped out on 12/20 @ 52.76 at loss. It was a gap-down past my 54 stop. oops

ES Head-and-Shoulders, Positions

SLD:
12/14 - IWM 82.47
12/13 - SMH 32.80
12/13 - SLV 31.31
12/13 - SIL 22.96
12/13 - MOO 52.65
12/13 - EEM 43.20
12/13 - FPHAX pharmaceuticals 15.54

BOT:
12/14 - ZSL 44.36 (1.5 x pos) double-short silver, so it's like short 3 x SLV. Originally taken as day trade, but silver is so limp - decided to keep it overnight. Tight stop.

 Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,IHI,SRS,JJG|B|P5,3,3
JJG - 1/2pos.
XLU, $CEX, IHI are for mut funds tracking intraday (FIUIX, FSCHX, FSMEX).

Classic H&S on 3days/30min Dec ESZ12.
I figure 1424es neckline. Min target is 1410ish Dec ES. OpEx is next week.
      Notable that high of the head is Fed announcement. I observed as it was collapsing here (link) on 12/12/12 :

i Bergamot

Don't you love how fed ramp gets reversed every time.
It's like deja-vu or something...

1day ago
1 Like 
 
Contract is rolling, so its not as apparent on continuation chart

Bloody bottom ?

I Bergamot

/ES. Margin liquidation again.  Open interest at 3052k (up by 100k in 2 days - boys getting short) and probably grown today. Get your bear hats on. Bulls need a miracle.
PS. Closing at the lows is kinda bullish. Capitulation? DX not rising, long bond got excited only after auction etc...

iBergamot SLD: SLV, STKL

SLV sold @29.69. No point to keep it below 30.
STKL sold on stop 5.54 (may be too close)
Silver is being hit harder than gold. Miners, RE all down.
Surprisingly DCHAF and MWSNF are up, and (-DBA) not falling hard.
There is no way to know when and how it ends, but 1350ES will be telling.
Breakdown and reverse up hard would be a beautiful doblebottom, but I'm not frontrunning it.
Rather be late, than try to catch a falling knife.
New watch list is growing.
ES am low 1354; OI 2782 - steady from 4/17 (on 4/10 OI 2751)

All industry groops and foreign markets were taken out and shot.

Be careful what you wish for.
I wanted a correction, now I have a sea of red.

SPX is down 23pts. Review of sectors, gold and silver, international markets.
My ES day-trade gone wrong.
Whats up with China? Why is it not in any of my lists? Hmm...

Things are Getting Interesting

A/D Indicator is oversold.
Market is in correction of unknown price and time.
Gold, Silver and miners are at the bottom of the list. Time to buy?

I Bergamot BOT: XHB, IYR, XRT

XHB - 1/2 pos - stop 19.45
IYR - 1/2 pos - stop 59.35
XRT - stop 58.90
see video tonight for whats happening to A/D indicator, ES support-resistance, weekly chart, VIX.
Next on buy list is HYG as early as friday.

Quick late night overview on March 6, 2012