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Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Best List notes


'Best List' - a collection of sensibly valued investable stocks - is a cornerstone of DART Method.
Best List is not that big. Over past couple of years it held 30-60 stocks and sometimes less. I also use other similar settings to zero in on faster growing companies, get more yield or better diversification.

Typically, Best List stocks stick for awhile (sometimes for years), often get bought out by larger players or go private, and usually represent REAL companies dealing in non-digital world. Normally, composition of Best List changes slowly, except during major market turns or dislocations. We seem to be having one right now.

About a year ago it looked like this:
Best List select 6/8/17 (finviz link)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NTRI,THO,ADP,HRL,VFC,LHO,MLHR,FII,CTAS,LEA,ttc,swk|B|P5,3,3|0

Only a month ago I was still working from this:
Best List select 9/12/2018 (finviz link)
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ADM,DRH,CSL,IEX,LPX,GNTX,FAST,WSO,ADP,SCS,NUE,RS|B|P5,3,3|0
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AOS,GGG,RBC,EXPD,BWA,LEA,aeo,GPS,LRCX,MKSI,EVR,TROW|B|P5,3,3|0

Shortly after that DART started to self-liquidate. I wasn't too sure what the sudden softness was all about, but knew better than to disregard sell rules.
Note, this is probably the LEAST diversified iteration of Best List, full of industrial companies that fell thru the fucking floor boards like an anvil.

Now, the all new Best List seems to be developing from October 2018 rubble.
Traditionally, I exclude the biggest mega-cap stocks from Select List, but making a note: JNJ, CSCO, DIS, MDT, NKE, COST are here. Two of them are System 12 stocks (JNJ is an open position right now); Three of them are System 9 stocks (I traded NKE this year up until publicity scandal).
There more of them just behind the fold.
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10/24/2018 Best List Select ---Finviz link---
This list looks to be in flux, due to recent market selloff, earnings season that is unfolding and pointless election jitters. As I write this on 11/7/18, full 3 weeks since starting this post, I still cannot make up my mind on a composition of Best List Select. However, now I am hard pressed to allocate into stocks, as MADI went on 'buy' signal yesterday (November 6) and seems to be holding today. This may be a whipsaw move - a counter trend rally in ongoing bear market, or a peak between two bottoms- in which case MADI will stay around zero line for a period of couple of days to a couple of weeks, then markets will tank with horrific stop-outs and bottom some time in December. On the other hand, any further strength this week will solidify October bottom.

I'll start here
 https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ADM,HRL,TSCO,EXPD,FAST,MSM,GVA,ALB,DG,WSM,DRI,TXRH|B|P5,3,3|0
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?JNPR,AVX,BRC,NATI,ADP,PAYX,RHI,TIF,RMD,MDT,STE,ICE|B|P5,3,3|0

DART v2 simulator: https://www.marketwatch.com/game/dart-v2-2018/portfolio
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Noting something strange.
DART v2 excludes stocks with short interest of over 10% on premise that short-sellers smell blood and circling the waters, however a certain group of stocks emerged, with abnormally high short ratios for otherwise strong businesses or improving charts. The group is not homogeneous, but rather well diversified with several subgroups of related companies (this is how you can tell that this is an actionable Select List and not just a statistical aberration).

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?hrl,safm,calm,ntri,fang,sna,alb,gbx,hcsg,egov,dks,wsm|B|P5,3,3|0

High Short Float List (HSFL) is not meant for immediate investment, although HRL looks really tempting, EGOV is a gov. monopoly, HCSG is a solid business, FANG is a Fast Grower and CALM + SAFM earnings historically fluctuate from nothing to everything and back... yet all of them sport a double-digit short interest.


Let me explain - there is NO way for all of the retail bears in the World to short 20% of the stock's float. It is technically impossible in today's regulatory environment. The only place this type of share-borrowing can happen is at institution, like a major investment bank or huge index fund or big asset manager.
This is why - it is very dangerous for the small operator to get involved with these kind of speculations.
In other words: they will not fight with you, they will fight amongst themselves and mow you down in a process.
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UPDATE 4/8/2019
Just came to my attention that NTRI (Nutrisystem diet scam) was bought out back in December at 25% premium, but still some 30% below its 2017 high. Everybody lose...

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