Positions, Bergamot T Out

Conservative Bergamot T run out in beginning of April.I arranged these center-posts back in January in this post (link).
Conservative T is anchored into violent V-shaped November bottom, and proved correct. Now the remaining questions are: will this be a double top with  higher or lower low, or some kind of "Null Echo" effect, or may be longer T into summer is not correct at-all. There where questions about validity of December center-post, because Nov 15 and Dec 28 bottoms are too far apart.
That aside, I consider this Bergamot T project a success. It guided me just fine since beginning of the year and I am looking forward to doing this again sometimes in future.

BOT:
4/9 - TRX 3.62 1/4pos
4/12 - HDGE 17.45 Half pos
4/18 - TSCO 105.79
4/18 - TRX 2.60 1/4pos
4/18 - SRS 19.65 Half pos
4/18 - SCTY 20.18 Half pos
4/18 - IMAX 27.74 Half pos
4/18 - HDGE 18.29 Half pos

Dividends received 4/12-4/19: CCJ, RGLD, Chemical Mut fund: $49.42 (whoopty doo)

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,BAL,NIB,QID,SDS,HDGE,SRS,FB,MON,tsco,IMAX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,trx,scty|B|P5,3,3

 Here are size and cost basis (incl commissions). 57% invested. Silver and PM miners group is 12%+ allocation, and losing 2.5% of account.
 
BAL  - 56.64 I was expecting Cotton to find support by now. More support down to 50. Weekly chart looks great - buyable dip right now. PFTargets: 51.50; longer term 89
FB    - 26.20 Chopping in a box. Support 24.70-25.70. Volume Profile (VP) improving in April.
FSCHX- 96.05 Half pos basis (25% mark-up)  $CEX stop under 368. CEX PFT 370met.  More PFT 450; 508-512.
IMAX - 27.87 Half pos.    This is possibly a Low Volatility Mover (LVM). Not a single close below 5wema for 4 months. Nothing overbought. I wanted to catch one of these for a long time. Trailing loose stop 25-26. Looking to add on strength above 28.     PFT 33; 37; 43.50
MON  - 107.17 Loss of momentum and weakness on VP. Support 97.50-98.50. PFT 98.50; 111; 133
NIB  - 29.39  Cocoa started on Mar 15, 2013 in this post (link), I bot on 3/20 and 28.  Support 29-30. PFT 37; 56
SCTY - 20.28 Half pos  PFT 28.50
TSCO - 106.06  PFT 108 (met); 126; 154
TSLA - 35.50 Half pos (38% mark-up) Short ratio came down to 13 from 21, but still 42% of float short!  PFT 41.50 and 52 met. More PFT 61; 67; 100

HDGE - 17.91
QID  - 26.49
SDS  - 45.24
SRS - 19.75 Half pos

SLV  - 28.20 Half pos
GDX - 37.61 Half pos (-23% dr-down)
SIL  - 17.80 Half pos
FNV  - 48.63 Half pos
RGLD - 68.96 Half pos
TRX -  3.04 Half pos  (-10% dr-down)

In The News:

GOLD - 4/23/13

NEW YORK--Goldman Sachs on Tuesday closed its recommendation to "short" gold, telling clients to exit bets on lower gold prices.

The bank had told its clients to bet on lower gold prices April 10.
 "Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists' forecast for a reacceleration in U.S. growth later this year," they said.

4/23/13 - Small Flash Crash
AP Twitter account got hacked and planted a story that two bombs detonated at the white house, injuring Obama. Lasted 5 minutes - 300,000cars ES and 50mil shares SPY. 

"Boss, we need to check the machines
No
Pleeease, we don't even know if they are working
No
Pretty please, just a few minutes
Ok, Ok, 5 minutes only
Yee-ha, hit it Lloyd!"

Cocoa

Cocoa is in a sweet spot, right at 25 Day MA.
I tried to pick bottom on NIB back in fall of last year. Didn't take

Now is an interesting situation on all time frames, IF:
1. Hourly is inverted H&S
2. Daily is bull flag
3. My volume profile starts really improving (its rather neutral now)
4. Dare I say 5th wave down on Daily chart?
5. 5 year chart is at some kind of long term support

I will be buying NIB above 5Wema over 28.80
Looking for it to hold 28.50.  Below 27.50 is a continuation of down-trend

New Moon 14%, Solar activity on a rise - first active for few days, today Mclass flare. Sun had been flat for weeks. Increase in activity always leads to volatility in Markets, both up and down.

Monday is seasonally best day of march all around. From there its all downhill, with slight blimp on 27 and 28 on Nazdaq. After that April is positive for all stocks.

Market is incredibly thin. Where is everybody?
From Chicago's Mr Top Step
         " There was always a big “to do” when it comes to the quad witching, but the facts are the facts: It’s nothing like it used to be. The big roar of the pit that used to have 300+ screaming locals and order fillers has been reduced to 3 or 4 order fillers and 50 or 60 locals all waiting for orders that almost never hit the pit. That said, we do not expect a lot of action today. Some business in the first and last 45 minutes."

 What about that POMO? Where is all that money go?... Cus its not in a stock markets, for sure

Cocoa, Coffee. Positions.

BOT:
1/10 - TBT @ 66.15
1/10 - EEM @ 44.70. Bought a final third, now it's a 2x pos and I don't want any more.
           I wrote about TBT and EEM here (link) on 1/10/2013.
1/11 - NIB @ 30.74 (see below)

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,EEM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,JJG,NIB,TBT|B|P5,3,3
$CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX
IWM, EEM, Chemicals and Utilities are 2x positions.

Watch List:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,GEO,KOL,SLX,IGE,TAN,SCTY,DRYS,UGA,ORB,GSVC,DDD|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XRT,XLE,XLB,remx,lysdy,EARH,$DJAKC,JO,JVA,XLV,IBB|B|P5,3,3

NIB tracks Cocoa pretty closely. Also $DJACC - cocoa sub-index.
Weekly looks ready for a bottom. Daily must not close below 30.
PF charts are a mess, as should be expected at turning point.
HalfATR chart points to that 30 mark, but traditional has bullish PO of 56 - about 2011 highs.
Now I also watch coffee.

UPDATE 1/17/2013:
What a mangled-fuck. I was looking at Dec 20 chart. Have to be more careful.
Anyway, analysis stays the same. Here is today's PF chart, showing Cocoa hitting 30 on the nose, bullish PO of 33.25, smaller HalfATR (bullish), and 30 mark as support.

On matters of FB :
The way it looks now, I'm not going to fight the turns. Will wait to see how reaction goes and maybe buy more. As of friday,  FB was out of ALL BBands for 3 days. Gravity has to take hold. I hope it comes down a little so I can add. Something is cooking in there. Remember, this company is a worthless fraud. Right? Or so they said