Copper Season

I've been watching Copper prices since summer, noticing how stubbornly strong it was. Although not a Precious Metal, it sits between Platinum and Palladium on Finviz Futures page. Right next to Gold and Silver. A lonely speck of green in the ocean of red. Strong? Lets say: Not as weak...with strong support near $3.
I think my position is well known:
This economy has been shit since 2011, and got worse since 2012.
I wrote about it here just recently (link) and also back in May (link) , all against the backdrop of Roaring Bull Market (link).  (How is it possible? Dow Paradox, bro...you feel me?)           
Seems to me that Dr Copper, PhD in Economics, kinda agrees with bitter yellow fruit here about the state of real economy.

There are only 4 copper miners in Finviz. FCX is the biggest, with highest dividend and smallest short ratio, but also with most debt.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$COPPER,JJC,COPX,CU,FCX,SCCO,RIO,AZC,LIWA,TGB,NAK,LUNMF|B|P5,3,3

Following System 12 rules, only $copper, JJC, FCX, RIO, LIWA qualifies for position. COPX is 10% under 200sma! Volume Profile is horrid on all. Nobody buys copper miners.

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Here is Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader Almanac on strong seasonality of Copper from mid-December to end of February.
http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Coppers-Historically-Strong-Season-Begins-Soon-HGF-SCCO
Since 2001 there was only 2 loosing years 2006 and 2012.
I notice, that although 2012 officially failed, there was a material rally from beginning of November 2012 to beginning of February 2013. Important not to overstay my welcome.

They pick SCCO, because of correlation to metal. I don't see that correlation to $COPPER or JJC at this moment at all. In fact, judging by Price Relative study nothing correlates very much here. Non of miners look like metal. Miners themselves are all different.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$COPPER,JJC,COPX,CU,FCX,SCCO,RIO,AZC,LIWA,TGB,NAK,LUNMF|C|J[jjc]
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There is an etf from GlobalX http://www.globalxfunds.com/COPX with 0.65% exp ratio, and 5% divi.
COPX has less then 30 holdings, with FCX, SCCO and Glencore at about 5% each. Top 2 holdings are Canadian companies III.TO and CS.TO.

Another etf is FirstTrust CU, with even higher exp ratio, less holdings, 3% divi and RIO as biggest position.
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=CU

COPX Fund Holdings Data as of 12/13/2013
% of Net Assets	Name
6.23	IMPERIAL METALS CORP
5.29	CAPSTONE MINING CORP
5.21	FREEPORT COPPR
5.20	GRUPO MEXICO SAB DE CV-B
5.01	JIANGXI COPPER COMPANY
5.01	KGHM POLSKA MIEDZ
4.87	HUDBAY MINERALS
4.85	GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL
4.71	SOUTHERN COPPER CORP
4.69	LUNDIN MINING CORP.
4.67	FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LT
4.56	ANTOFAGASTA PLC
4.53	SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL
4.46	TECK COMINCO LTD-CL B
4.20	TURQUOISE HILL RES
4.00	VEDANTA RESOURCES
3.93	KAZAKHMYS
3.91	TASEKO MINES LTD
3.87	OZ MINERALS LTD
3.77	PANAUST LIMITED
2.13	CUDECO LIMITED
1.42	COPPER MOUNTAIN MINING
1.10	TURQUOISE HILL RIGHTS
1.08	PARK ELEKTRIK
0.88	NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS

Positions and Watch List

...developing...
BOT:
8/30 - FB 41.97. Full pos. I think it will take out all time high (made on day of IPO), or fall apart right here and now.
9/3 - TBT 78.52. Re-entering just as planned. I've been riding this trend since 5/16. Last time I took profit on 8/23 at 80.40. Every trade in "Short US Treasuries" theme was profitable this year. This is what Bonds bear market does.

SLD:
9/4 - SSYS 106.70. Taking small profit on this half pos trade. I don't like intraday action, plus I didn't buy it well. Will watch and may re-enter
9/4 - SIL 15.37. half pos size of silver miners. Now I have full pos on.

DIVIDEND:
9/1 - WFC (from System12)
9/4 - TSCO


Main1
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$SPX,$COMPQ,QQQ,IWM,EFA,EEM,$TNX,UUP,GLD,USO,GCC|B|P5,3,3
S&P Sectors+
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLY,ibb,gdx|B|P5,3,3

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH,gwph|B|P5,3,3
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1716802-capitalizing-on-cannabis-divergence-among-the-pot-stocks?source=yahoo
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1655672-capitalizing-on-cannabis-a-review-of-publicly-traded-marijuana-stocks?source=yahoo

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOLD,HL,PVG,sppp,PPLT,PALL,PPP,LODE,GORO,AGI,ng,ngd|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?tbt,ewj,vnm,ccj,tk,tan,scty,pgh,ige,lnn,imax|B|P5,3,3

 Watch-List Cleaner
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/04/watch-list-cleaner.html


Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,NIB,JJG,COW,SDS,SRS,TSCO,DDD,SSYS,FB,YELP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,PPP,NM,kex,AMLP,uco|B|P5,3,3

...
Old Timers, gotta love 'em.
Moe Ansari talks to  Pamela Aden about everything

System 12 and more

 BOT:
7/24  - COW 26.97 Half pos size. Livestock etn to continue agricultural theme (which is currently is atleast in doubt). After a triple-bottom in spring it break-out over 26.50 and 50dma. Buying half on first reaction, to see if it can hold 50dma and go over declining 200dma.
8/8 - PPP 4.73 Adding new position to Gold Miners portfolio. Good relative strength. 1/4 pos size.
8/9 - RGLD 54.78 Adding half pos, now i have a full pos on.
8/9 - TWM 15.45 Double short Russell2000 (IWM)
8/13 - YELP 51.70 Incredibly strong mo-mo chart. There is something going on. Tight stop.
After stop out on 8/15 at 48.02, I re-entered on 8/21 at 50.24
8/19 - SSYS 102.10 Half pos. Starting one more 3D printer company on first reaction after 52week high. Really not a good entry point.
8/20 - TSCO 120.27. Re-entering trade after stop-out at lows on 8/15. Now I have to chase, and I still can't make up my mind if its a strong stock or not. Its one of last remnants of agricultural theme, currently very much in doubt.
8/21 - KEX 84.44 Biggest shipper of all in strong uptrend. Buying dip. If fails there are few levels of support to re-enter in 75-80 area. UPDATE: Stop out on 8/30 at 81.22.
8/23 - UCO 36.97 Long oil. Price pattern only, I don't care about Syria. PFTargets for WTIC 114, 128-129
8/23 - GDX 30.30 Buying another half pos size
8/28 - SRS 23.35 Shorting Real Estate, IYR is proxy.

 SLD:
7/26 - TBT 74.58 Selling last half position bought on 5/17 for 12+% gain. Now I have a 1 full pos, bought on 7/10.
8/1 - CCJ 19.72 on stop.  Looking to pick a bottom of that 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom box.
On 8/8 I re-entered at 19.63, thinking that i got shaken out for no reason at-all, but was stopped out again on 8/19 at 19.49 for a small loss.
8/13 - FB 37.12. Take profit on half pos.
8/14 - SCTY 36.23. After ER on 8/5 this is completely fell apart, even with solars (via TAN) strong. Close this half position (bought on 6/28) for 5% loss. SCTY made me alot of money this year, let it cool a bit.
8/15 - TSCO 116.97 Stop out at the lows. Will re-enter.
8/15 - TK 38.04 Weak shipper. Taking 5% loss.
8/20 - VNM 18.23 Exit this half pos size trade at almost 7% loss. Emerging markets are bust.
8/20 - TWM 16.12 Exit position bought on 8/9 for small (less than 5%) gain. Shorting R2K is hard.
8/23 - TBT 80.40 Exit full pos for 5% gain. Looking for re-entry.
8/23 - SDS 37.78 Exit position from 5/16 for 3% loss, although SPX is at almost same level. Thats leveraged etf decay, plus I am shorting the Bull Market.
8/28 - NM 6.24 Half size out. Taking profits on rip. PFT 7 and 7.50 remains.
8/28 - EWJ 11.11. Small loss. I am confused about Japan, yen, and difference between $NIKK and EWJ.
8/29 - UCO 38.73 Taking quick 4% profit on oil. Looking for re-entry.

Dividends:
7/25 - FNV
7/31 - TK
8/29 - FNV

Positions  and watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,NIB,JJG,SDS,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,DDD,SSYS,FB,YELP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,PPP,NM,TBT,VNM,AMLP,COW|B|P5,3,3

System 12 Update

Earnings season is over and it did alot of damage. Many Mega Dozen (MD) and SD stocks are under 50/200 day MA's and I am looking  to buy if/when they recover. Failure here would be catastrophic for markets worldwide!

This is MD as of 8/16/2013.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,xom,GOOG,BRK/B,MSFT,JNJ,GE,WMT,CVX,WFC,PG,chl|B|P5,3,3
Of note - AAPL took top spot  for first time since mid-2012. RDS is replaced by CHL, they are very close together, but RDS is recently disqualified.  XOM took a hit under 200 and 50ma.
XOM, GOOG, MSFT, WMT, CVX, RDS are all under 50dma, and BRK is right on it.

This is SD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?rds/b,ptr,hbc,tm,ibm,jpm,pfe,t,bhp,nvs,ko,bbl|B|P5,3,3
RDS, PTR, IBM, T, BHP are disqualified.  JPM, PFE, HBC, NVS, KO are under or at 50dma.  BBL and BHP is the same company, with BBL just a bit over 200dma. Second Dozen is basically poop.

MD+ 8/16/2013

BTFT positions: (3 available slots)
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?BRK/B,CVX,GE,GOOG,JNJ,PFE,TM,wfc,xom|B|P5,3,3
XOM, GOOG, CVX  - liquidate or by-pass. These from MD.

Available - AAPL, PG, CHL, HBC(from SD)

S12T has XOM (blown all stops and out of PP) and WFC. Looking to add all available and also BRK, GE, JNJ.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,PG,CHL,HBC,BRK/B,GE,JNJ|B|P5,3,3

Gold Digger

From all gold-miners around the world -  these are profitable, trade over 200k per day, and priced over $1.Sorted by advance from 50 day low, which is still April Crash low

Here are what I think the best charts from above list, plus 3 silver miners with similar metrics.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GDX,IAG,FNV,GORO,NGD,GOLD,PPP,AUY,GG,HL,SLW,AG|B|P5,3,3
 From looking at these charts I would never guess that these are profitable companies, paying dividends, with decent institutional ownership, with low debt and almost no short interest.

Another list I put together couple of weeks ago. I don't remember how I picked these, but PPP is in it again.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOLD,AGI,NSU,AZK,PPP,DRD,LODE,KGJI,MGN,FCX,scco,azc|B|P5,3,3

Gold Crash

Below chart from Tiho Brkan shows that gross speculative short positions are at their highest levels in decades. Furthermore, last week public opinion (an amalgamation of a handful of surveys courtesy of sentimentrader.com) reached the lowest level since at least 2004. And bullish percent miners via $BPGDM is at 0 - as it should be in strong downtrend.

 

 During summer 2008 SLV lost about 50% and October 2008  looked liked no bottom I ever seen.
Infact it looked like Silver goes way down from there. Position in SLV bought anytime during that bear would still be profitable btw.

Fast forward to today.
Buy low - sell high?
This is definitely low (which can become even lower), it just have to slow down...

Specifically, I will not be buying today. All PM's are facing margin liquidation which will happen after 2pm. We had it on Friday, and today futures traders are facing a total loss of their position.

What is going on? I have a theory. For one, if you know that several countries (not hedge funds) may be in position to sell gold in order to repay money they owe to you? Will you help them sell gold at highest prices to somebody else, or at lowest print directly to you?… and blah-blah-blah (add your favorite conspiracy theory).
But really I simply think that this support level was too widely watched, accumulated alot of stoploss orders and now we have a cascading effect. Gold-bugs suffered for too long, capitulating. May last for days-to-weeks, may be over tomorrow

We are looking at transfer of shares from weak hands to strong ones.
Rivers of blood!
Don't get swept away...:-)

Some funny-mentals. Top panel is US based, bottom is Canada. I don't want to touch any South Africa, Peru,etc. All these are profitable! At first glance - I don't see any massive shorts, I do see inst ownership, dividends, low debt and low Price-to-Book on most of these.    HMMM - is an understatement.!

Here is what crazies are up to:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/all-eyes-gold-rout-most-oversold-14-years

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4643/history-making

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$GOLD,abx,gg,nem,au,aem,gold,rgld,fcx|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?gld,slv,gdx,gdxj,sil,mux,trx,fnv,exk,mgn,jag,mdw|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,PSLV,SLW,PAAS,CDE,AG,HL,SSRI,SVM,EXK,MVG,GPL|B|P5,3,3

On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.

 Over the next couple of hours I moved  some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
 HAO   - 24.16
 RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn? 
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03  Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO  - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
 2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26  - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what?  VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):

           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing? 

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.
           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.
           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

All industry groops and foreign markets were taken out and shot.

Be careful what you wish for.
I wanted a correction, now I have a sea of red.

SPX is down 23pts. Review of sectors, gold and silver, international markets.
My ES day-trade gone wrong.
Whats up with China? Why is it not in any of my lists? Hmm...

Things are Getting Interesting

A/D Indicator is oversold.
Market is in correction of unknown price and time.
Gold, Silver and miners are at the bottom of the list. Time to buy?