Santa X-mas Massacre

SLD:
12/21 - FSMEX 28.03 (Med equipment) Received dividend and closed. This industry is a disappointment. Nothing really happened, and although I made some profit, time to go.
12/20 - JJG on-stop 52.76 (see below what I posted about this)
12/20 -  ZSL half of half @ 51.70. Keeping less than 1x pos short silver. It's a runner.
12/18 - ZSL half @ 46.33. Locking in some profits. Still have equivalent of 1.5 x short silver.

BOT:
12/21 - QID @ 29.95 1pos of double-short QQQ (see below what I posted about this)

12/26/2012
Attention Holiday Shoppers!
Your spending sucks!
Retail at key support. Yea, it looks like such a beautiful inv H&S, but it it fails...
If you like X-mas sales, wait for "Going out of business" sales

 12/21/2012
 Nazdaq A/D has 3rd lowest reading since summer.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but the market just got blown up. What if there will not be a Xmas rally?
        QID is what i bought to short QQQ.
Stop? I don't need no stinkin' stop, but gap fill is all i prepared to lose.

 12/20/2012
 I'm looking at grains knifing lower, busting  BBands. Tried a long via JJG - stopped out, but looking for reentry. I have nothing to short them with (like short etf), but they can really fall big.
"Santa Silver Bullet" is a really nasty one.
But whats most amazing is all this with Dollar falling.

12/17/2012
 AAA said that today will be the last full working day before Xmas. People will start taking off tomorrow. If it is we will see it in lower volumes. How do you roll ES contract without volume?
Santa is all thumbs, covered in coal dust

John Galt

          Just about around this time a year ago something happened. I was writing my journal by hand back then. It was very inefficient and cumbersome.  I was wondering why, why do i need to write it? Some very interesting people in books and on the internets where recommending to keep a journal. I think now I know why. Switching to a blog was a necessity rather than choice. I couldn't bring my journal to work, I needed to have screens, ideas and watch lists just as I have them at home.
        About this time a year ago I was struggling, loosing money and my mind. I need to find that notebook and read what I wrote a year ago. I do know , or I think I do, what I am going to face.
        I grown alot, I changed alot, I learned alot and I am not done. I haven't even begun. Looking at myself as if from the distance, I see this quiet confidence I never had before. Confidence of standing in a forward cabin of 100-miles in hour train. Not afraid, not confused.
        My method, My skills, My road

ES Head-and-Shoulders, Positions

SLD:
12/14 - IWM 82.47
12/13 - SMH 32.80
12/13 - SLV 31.31
12/13 - SIL 22.96
12/13 - MOO 52.65
12/13 - EEM 43.20
12/13 - FPHAX pharmaceuticals 15.54

BOT:
12/14 - ZSL 44.36 (1.5 x pos) double-short silver, so it's like short 3 x SLV. Originally taken as day trade, but silver is so limp - decided to keep it overnight. Tight stop.

 Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,IHI,SRS,JJG|B|P5,3,3
JJG - 1/2pos.
XLU, $CEX, IHI are for mut funds tracking intraday (FIUIX, FSCHX, FSMEX).

Classic H&S on 3days/30min Dec ESZ12.
I figure 1424es neckline. Min target is 1410ish Dec ES. OpEx is next week.
      Notable that high of the head is Fed announcement. I observed as it was collapsing here (link) on 12/12/12 :

i Bergamot

Don't you love how fed ramp gets reversed every time.
It's like deja-vu or something...

1day ago
1 Like 
 
Contract is rolling, so its not as apparent on continuation chart

Silver Bullet

7am.
What? Silver down 3% and all PM  down. Dollar is higher, but just a bit.
No news of any importance overnight (at least I couldn't find any).  I see it dropped big around 8pm est last night. Yesterdays news don't fit (Fed day + continuation of QE).
I am considering to flip and go short via ZSL and DUST

Later in a day:
...Just come back from meeting and booo - stopped out EEM, MOO, SMH, SLV, SIL. Drinking coffee for all , except SLV. He-He.
 Now market can rally hard (Joke)

1st Day above 1425spx. Positions 12/11/2012

BOT:
12/7 - SLV 32.02 (stop 31-31.50)
12/7 - SIL 22.50
Both fell a bit since I sold them at the end of Nov.
12/11 - JJG 55.92 1/2pos (stop 54)
Just as I was buying grain etf, wheat knifed lower by 3%, crashing both BBands in process. All three grains are NOT in uptrend, but show some signs of bottoming. I fully expect to be stopped out today or tomorrow, but will reenter at lower price.
12/11 - SRS 25.02 Still a special case. IYR H&S from this post seems to be busted, but price action is still lousy and XHB is simply falling apart. I can't find any other bear etf to short homies

Positions:  (still keeping cash at about 30%)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,EEM,MOO,SMH,XLU,PPH,$CEX,IHI,slv,sil,SRS,JJG|B|P5,3,3

On Market:
      Some of my positions are blasting thru BBands. It's not a small stuff, but etf's like EEM and SMH. And I see a bunch of others doing same. At this point the only way this trend continues is up and up without pause. Not something we see very often.
Santa may be lost...
      So we barely pushed above 1425SPX, but picture is questionable. Reaction will come at some point, just as it always does, and 1400 is a definitive support.  We will be lucky if it stops at 1400, see PF chart for clarity.
If 1400SPX broken than all this business will become a giant bull trap. We are not as far as it seems.
      Bonds are at bottom of the box on 25day/4hr chart. Daily is in a middle of sloppy range. There may be a trade there. Watching.

Grains go Critical

Grains at a critical spot here.
I can't trade grain futures, but here is all-grain etf  JJG
 http://www.ipathetn.com/us/product/jjg/#/overview
After making a double bottom between Nov 12 and 19, they rally hard and now testing neckline.
Small breakdown and recovery is ok, as long as 54 not taken out.
I must have a full position on above 58. 
If this Double-bottom test fails - there will be another opportunity later at lower price

JJG has:
36.75% - Soybean (was at 40% on 6/30/12)
33.66% - Corn
29.59% - Wheat
Unclear if these are near or far contracts
Correlation to SPX  0.44
Fee 0.75%
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?dba,jjg,$soyb,$corn,$wheat|B|P5,3,3

Wheat and Corn held up the best thru this correction. It's the Soybean that's under-performing JJG.
So, Soy is a key to watch.

Cancel Christmas

SLD:
12/5 -  XHB @ 25.54 re-entry possible
12/4 -  XRT on stop 62.65
12/4 -  KRE @ 27.34 financials are still of interest to me.

BOT:
12/4 - SRS @ 27.34 trying to short IYR (real estate) again. Price-chart only, no personal opinion.

Ho-Ho-Ho
         Over past few days I visited several stores. Department store, clothes seller and jeweler where absolutely empty. Not slow, empty. Walmart is busy, but people buying groceries and necessities at WMT. I haven't been to mall yet.
        This is not the only reason why I sold XRT. Consumer sectors took quite a beating in November. They recovered very well, but now are against the former resistance. With lousy price action over past few days, I was taken out on tight stop.

Consumer
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLY,VCR,FXD,XRT,RTH,IYC,XLP,VDC,IYK,PBJ,wmt|C|P5,3,3
Consumer International
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$DJW,RXI,CHIQ,INCO,BRAQ,KXI,ECON,IPS|B|P5,3,3

Lets see how far this down move will go.  There are no short consumer ETF's. There is no short interest of note. The way I see it - there is nobody out there to cushion the fall.

Positions, Changes, Watch List 12/3/2012

70% invested. All long

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,EEM,KRE,MOO,SMH,XHB,XRT|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLU,FIUIX,PPH,FPHAX,$CEX,FSCHX,IHI,FSMEX|B|P5,3,3
(etf's are not a positions. For tracking intraday only)

SOLD:
 11/23 - 1x-pos IWM at 1st target 80.23. Still have a full position on.
11/27 - SIL @ 22.88. No re-entry.
11/27 - CG on stop 24.95. Re-entry possible, just need to close over 25.50.
11/30 - SLV on stop 32.55

IYR is a special case now.
11/28 - Sld on stop 62.45 and desided to reverse.
11/28 - Bot SRS @ 26.61
11/30 - Sld SRS on stop 25.81
These stops may be too close. Looking to short if it breaks down from here

 

Watch List

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IYR,CG,SLV,IBB,XLF,XLB,PHO,XLI,KOL,SLX|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?fxi,hao,ifn,vnm|B|P5,3,3

Is there a QE ?

Everybody was really gung-ho about QE infinity. Every time there was a QE markets rise up. True.

 So the stocks going up, because QE is comming - there will be plenty of money. Really? Announcement comes and markets tops out.

 There is no QE-n.  It's a hoax.

      Look how illiquid markets are. Had there be a QE - all stocks and ETF's would be swimming in money. I searched for "money supply" and could not  find any data showing that its grown in a past year or two. Molecool agrees: " Right - most of it is being sterilized. We have been pretty flat on the printing front for a year. They still find ways to funnel cash to the PMs of course but we are not vastly expanding the money supply right now."

      O, and by the way, is there suppose to be 40-80 BILLION of QE3 money out there? Cus I don't see it. Not in a market, for sure.  Aren't they  suppose to buy 40 billion MBS per month, plus Twist, plus reinvestment of interest on their own bonds (don't you love that), plus line with Europe, plus reverse repo... I'm sure I left something out.

     Where is the money?   This is what I don't understand.  QE3 is SO much money, that even if a small portion of it goes into stock-market there should be an explosion of all prices. Clearly, this is not a case. You want to tell me that asset allocators are sitting there on a pile of money and not doing a thing? How they are going to explain it to their boss?

     Bullshit.
Fed doing something else, or nothing at all. Play golf, ride around in limo, collecting paycheck and writing memoirs. But, what do I know. I'm just a little fruit. (don't smoke the leaves)

UPDATE 12/14/2012:
       People go to NY Fed website (link) to see what treasury buys and sells, for how much and when. Some people claim that this schedule can help to time index trade, e.g. "it's a little less liquidity in the system, so far it's paid off at 66% of temp. operation sell days are good for a down move." There are 5-7 sell days per month. 66% of those is 2-4 days per month that are good for down move. OMG, are you fucking joking?
       See, this is a problem with statistics. If we have 70% of down, flat or negative days since the "beginning" of QE3 (or whatever it was from September top), if 70% of days are down - than 66% of good trades from above example offer no edge and can be disregarded as "mental masturbation".
        Why do you people watch this garbage? You know that it's basically the same people who publish GDP, inflation and unemployment? If they can go back and restate years of GDP (it happened a year or two ago), don't you think they can restate years of QE.
"Oops, sorry, there is really no money. What? NY Fed? O, its just a clerical error"

Welcome to Whipsaw Valley, USA

Yesterday I wrote here : http://evilspeculator.com/?p=32455

Suppose you are a longer term trader, and you are long a bunch of staff since summer. You sit thru Sept and October, because it's a consolidation and you are a trend-follower. Trend is up. Then November happens and o-shit - all kinds of support is taken out. Being a leveled-headed individual with 2 bear-markets in recent past, you say " the music has stopped and there is only one chair left. Next rally I will unload, go to cash, maybe go short".

Well, this is it 

 I Have a little short, still have a bunch of longs.
As for cash, will have to see what will be stopped out by the end of day.
Sold SIL and CG yesterday.
The difficulty of this moment in this context is: even if I stop out, I must be willing to buy it right back.
Welcome to Whipsaw Valley, USA

I remember all too well the whipsaw we had in fall of 2011 and little in end of May of this year. I always had problems during these times. Get scared and sell at lows  is the worst. I not only lose capital, i lose confidence and both takes time to rebuild. Having said that, I have a clear plan:
1. SPX moves over 1415-1425 and stays there. Market goes higher with 5ema(weekly) as support, and takes all my positions higher. (30% chance)
2.  SPX moves under 1390-1400 and stays there. Market makes a double bottom, higher low is better. Then it rallies. I like to see this the most, because it will setup a doule bottom for T-centerpost with next top months away. I have been watching this since last month in this post  http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2012/10/possible-t-just-need-bottom.html  (50% chance)
In a process I will be stopped out of almost everything. Then I will have to buy it all back.
3. The reason I stop out in #2 is this: if market fails to bottom - there is no support. Summer lows are not going to hold and this can turn into a big bear market. (20%chance) . Nobody cares, QE money stuck somewhere or may be there is no QE. Taxes go up, although I don't think it matters. Huge shakedown in army, CIA and government are going on right now. And they are not done. Something is up, I can smell it.


Interesting astrology piece from Karen Starich : http://www.zentrader.ca/blog/?p=16208#more-16208

There are significant planetary placements on November 28th that will mirror and bring a warning for events that will begin to unfold near December 22nd concerning the United States, Europe and the destiny for EU nations.  The turning point for Europe could be as critical as the agreements at Yalta between  Roosevelt,  Stalin, and  Churchill. It took four decades and the Malta agreements that took place in 1989 between Gorbachev and Bush to reverse many of the decisions made at the Yalta Conference in 1945. 

 The parallel to 1989  and 2012 is being mirrored in a very rare planetary alignment between Saturn, Pluto, and Jupiter. The power of this configuration can bring about a ‘shape shift’ where suddenly our way of life can be altered in a good way as it was for Europe in 1989, or in an evil way as it was in Tiananmen Square also in 1989.

Thanks, Karen

Food Riot

With seemingly unending sell-off in ag commodities, one has to wonder if food bull market is over.  My personal opinion is biased - I think we will never pay low prices for food again, however it may be because of retail mark-up and fuel prices. Case in point - look at coffee. Never mind that its been going down for 2 years, retail coffee is more expensive than ever.
That aside here is JJG (all grain etf). Look at volume difference in beginning of 2011 and now. This makes the "money hair" on my back go wu-wu-wu

 

 "December is the number one S&P 500 month..." and more about seasonality of December and early January from Jeff Hirsch

http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Election-Year-Forces-Temper-Decembers-Bullishness-SPY-QQQ

 

Ibiza - The Impossible Dream

With total collapse of my little world, I find myself firmly with my head up my ass. Silly and really strange how little of firm footing... And so on. Enough!
           Since my big plans went kaput, and I really don't want to start running somebody's money again I decided to get myself an impossible dream.
           This is not first, I had dreams so impossible there was no reason to even mention them. All came true! ALL ! And more.
           So , here it goes: Ibiza. Not directly of course. We have to go to Paris first. Paris is a must! 12 hour drive from Paris, France to Valencia, Spain ? Hmm... I can see it as a 2 day trip with stop in... Toulouse... no... Barcelona ..., but definitely to Ibiza. Can't drive directly into Ibiza - it's an island. May be there is a ferry boat?

in french it says: "mesdames et messieurs dans quelque instants nous allons entré dans la septième dimension" it means "ladies and gentlemen in few moments we are going to enter in the seventh dimension" :)
            BTW, the footage in this video is of  Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain). Just as good

Dollar Short

System 10 trying to short Dollar end of Sept, two in October and now.
This is it. It should die here, or DX goes higher, much higher.

From Molecool  http://evilspeculator.com/?p=32321#disqus_thread :

greenback is offering up an inside day + NR4 day. I would love to see an upside breach here which would really throw a curve ball at those Dollar bears. But of course I wouldn’t mind a drop below today’s lows tomorrow – less evil but potentially profitable nevertheless.

 (See how different daily candles looks on his and my chart !
Not all charts are the same. I guess different data providers.)

iBergamot

iBergamot ducks to avoid " a curve ball thrown at those Dollar bears".
(I am biased - thats not good)
 Looking at this chart and all I see is DOWN!

UPDATE:
That was quick.

Marketwatch:
10:49p
"Eurogroup meeting ends without agreement on Greece."
They had a meeting till 5 am local time?

Euro tanks, dollar rally, ES -10. Will see in a morning.
I thought nobody gives a shit about Greece anymore

Positions, changes

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iwm,EEM,IYR,KRE,MOO,SIL,SLV,SMH,XHB,xrt,cg|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLU,FIUIX,PPH,FPHAX,$CEX,FSCHX,IHI,FSMEX|B|P5,3,3
(etf's are not a positions. For tracking intraday only)

BOT:
11/14 - XRT 61.68 bot back at higher price
11/14 - FIUIX added to utilities
11/15 - CG  25.56   -  CARLYLE GROUP. Stop under 25
11/16 - IWM  2x-position  at 76.95, targeting low 80's than will see

i have money for 1 or 2 more. IBB comes to mind. Just like KRE and XRT I was shaken out at lows. May re-buy it today. Not sure.

Had my eyes on Carlyle for years, and especially since ipo. Stop under 25.

 I was pocking around in Finviz, and look
IWM short interest is 97% ! How is it even possible?

 

"Some people say peace is on the way,

But the worst is still to come.."

This shit does plays by the book. Spooky

 

Nobody is Buying (except Me)

It has been my thesis for a past couple of years, that individual investors are largely out of stock market. That means not only investment / trading, but also pensions and IRA's. Why? Well its risky, they lose money in bear markets and treasuries are the place to be. Right...
I haven't seen any interest from anybody. Not a question. Not an investment idea. not an opinion. It wasn't always like this. People used to talk about mutual funds all the time. Now they are all out.

On treasuries I wrote this http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2012/06/us-t-bond-bubble.html

On stocks - a great piece from Sober Look:

In spite of poor performance of a number of high profile IPOs this year, the demand for new issue equity in the US seems to be quite resilient. In fact the total IPO volume this year is the highest since the burst of the tech bubble.  Who is buying all these shares? Except for a couple of high profile cases, individual investors don't seem to be involved on a large scale. In fact on a net basis it certainly doesn't seem to be coming from mutual funds, as investors continue to pull record amounts.

 http://soberlook.com/2012/11/total-equity-offerings-in-us-hit-all.html
Thanks

Crash in Progress

in Wednesday Morning Briefing 19 hours ago

 I commented yesterday that i'm looking at one more move lower, even lower low. But I look at it as buying opp (for now)
Interesting, how ES broke yest low, but dollar and long bond didn't take out yest highs.

I added to FIUIX. It's utilities, I wanted to shift XLU into mutual fund - better for dividend accumulation. This is a good time to do it. Interested to see what kind of yield it will have at bottom.

Great piece from Sy Harding:

 Just a few thoughts to ponder as the stock market tumbles, and big-picture analysis extends the trend of the last couple of years of dysfunctional politics in Washington, predicting dire long-term consequences, even as there is increasing evidence of work being done to reach a compromise and end the dysfunction.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html
Thanks, Sy.

 "O mio babbino caro" ("Oh My Beloved Father") is a soprano aria from the opera Gianni Schicchi (1918), by Giacomo Puccini, to a libretto by Giovacchino Forzano. It is sung by Lauretta after tensions between her father Schicchi and the family of Rinuccio, the boy she loves, have reached a breaking point that threatens to separate her from Rinuccio. It provides a contrasting interlude expressing lyrical simplicity and single-hearted love in the atmosphere of hypocrisy, jealousy, double-dealing and feuding in medieval Florence

100years later - nothing changes. NOTHING !

Fiscal Cliff, Donald Trump and Faber's Prostitutes

From the Fly at http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/:

I’ve seen the future and there are lower stock prices in it. The republicans have nothing to lose but the legacy and job approval rating of their sitting President. We are going OVER the fiscal cliff, AND MORE. You wait and see. It’s going to be a shit show. Not only that, the elections are over and earnings season was for shit. The Fed is going to ease up on the gas because Obama is already in. Why exert themselves, now that their jobs are secure?
 I want you to heed my final warning and understand that the government is intent on inflicting damage to you. They will not avoid the fiscal cliff–but purposely drop you off of it.

"Let me get this straight . . .
We're going to be "gifted" with a health care plan we are forced to purchase and fined if we don't! Which purportedly covers at least ten million more people without adding a single new doctor, but provides for 16,000 new IRS agents, written by a committee whose chairman says he doesn't understand it, passed by a Congress that didn't read it but exempted themselves from it, and signed by a Dumbo President who smokes, with funding administered by a treasury chief who didn't pay his taxes, for which we'll be taxed for four years before any benefits take effect, by a government which has already bankrupted Social Security and Medicare, all to be overseen by a surgeon general who is obese , and financed by a country that's broke!!!!!
'What the hell could possibly go wrong?'" ~ Donald Trump

  Marc Faber : “The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline, it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer, it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables, it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car, it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap, it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US.” - Marc Faber said in 2008 commenting on the US Stimulus package

Positions, Changes

System 5 is the Main account now. No margin, no shorting (except inverse ETF's ), no futures. Right...
Positions
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,iyr,kre,moo,sil,slv,smh,xhb|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?nya,fiuix,fphax,fschx,fsmex|B|P5,3,3

SLD:
11/1 - XLU 36.68 no re-entry. Will add to mut fund
11/7 - IBB 129.15 looking to re-enter
11/8 - XLF 15.55
11/8 - KRE 27.15 bot back
11/8 - HYG 91.76
11/9 - XRT 60.44

BOT:
11/7 - SLV 30.89 
11/9 - KRE 27.30 yes, I bought it back a day later
11/9 - SMH 31.50 this tech is stronger than market. Tight stop

WATCH LIST:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iwm,dvy,hyg,xlf,ibb,xlb,xli,xlk,pho,gdxj,fxi,ifn|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?remx,ura,tan,kol,slx,|B|P5,3,3
China. HAO is the way to go-go.
  http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FXI,GXC,MCHI,CHIQ,HAO,PGJ|B|J[hao]

3:00pm

I Bergamot

/ES. There is no bottom without follow-thru to over 1390.
May be one more move lower, but not necessary higher low?
/DX. What a whippy bastard, already stopped out twice. Is it breaking down or what?
no go-go in sight

Bloody bottom ?

I Bergamot

/ES. Margin liquidation again.  Open interest at 3052k (up by 100k in 2 days - boys getting short) and probably grown today. Get your bear hats on. Bulls need a miracle.
PS. Closing at the lows is kinda bullish. Capitulation? DX not rising, long bond got excited only after auction etc...

"What separates the men from the boys" and more from Lee Cooperman

Lee Cooperman, founder of hedge fund firm Omega Advisors,  gave a presentation in September 2012 entitled, "Observations regarding: life, hedge funds, the investment outlook" at Roger Williams University.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/10/lee-cooperman-on-hedge-funds-investment.html

Amazing. This guy is running System 9. Ha, and I thought I invented something - he has been doing it for years. 6.6 bil under management.

If you produce the returns, you'll grow.  What separates the men from the boys is how you do during periods of adversity

- 'Obsession': the word he uses to describe his approach to investing

- The harder he works, the luckier he got.  To be successful, you have to make sacrifices. 

"It doesn't matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle; when the sun comes up you'd better be running."

On Life

- Four observations: 1. there's nothing more important than family,

 

Liquidation. PART 1 -- THE END.

9:20am
Exchanges expecting limited liquidity. That's bad for me. I was thinking to just dump everything at open, but decided to be professional about it and sell carefully to get the best prices of the day. Great earnings from TTWO - up 7% in premarket. I started to buy game stocks months ago ( in this post), they will go up into X-Mas IMNSHO
9:55am
Tight stops set for all positions. Now i just trail them up. Everything will be sold before close. I am killing my creation. "Angry" doesn't even begins to describe it.
1pm
Only about 20% left. My body is majorly giving up. Popping painkillers. Mentally I'm FUBAR. Obviously, trading of System 10 or anything else is not allowed.
3:50pm
All out. Few hundred better than opening total.
System 9 is a workable system, but successful or not - that i don't know.

iBERGAMOT  PART 1 -- THE END

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?che,ea,gme,ttwo,mat,geo,hcn,mr,lysdy,mcp,ree,tas|B

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?calvf,epz.v,sil,kors,lsi,tayc|B

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xlu,hyg,ibb,iyr,kre,xlf,eem,moo,xhb,xrt|B

 

 

Day before Liquidation

The most disturbing thing in this situation is : I Will Never Find Out how it ENDS !
I'm not afraid of fuck-up. I  take a chance, I  push and try. Fail and start again. I  make all new mistakes and try not to repeat old ones. I go for it until Fat Lady.
This is totally different. My chance is taken away. My work has no use. My obligations are not fulfilled, even worst - my best chance to fulfill these obligations is no longer an option.
All this is happening just as i am going full speed, working maximum hours with outmost dedication. My research shows a high amount of promising situations. Wide variety of great setups is presented. This type of situation happens couple of times a year at most. In the past, I only made aware of it when it's too late. Now I'm in it as it unfolds, already positioned in best and strongest areas, also in Rare Earths and PM. Invested by over 100% and fully prepared to go up to 250%. My risk management and position sizing makes it possible with less then 10% risk at this moment in time. This is situation for which Flagship account was open, this is what it meant for. A combination of key leading ETF's with "kicker" individual stocks with futures hedge when necessary. Beautiful, powerful, diversified and low risk - my creation. I have no other account set up for that.
  A modest 20% rally on 250% invested account is 50% profit. This is how it's done; This is what I'm talking about; Nobody listens. Crickets. Fuck.

iBergamot. Part 2.

 I'm Working on It.
Goes without saying, this campaign is not over. It started suddenly during December 2011, and went  with minor setback in May. Even that did't cost me too much. Now for sure, I'm going with direction of bull market. This dip  right now - I was buying, heavily into leading strongest stocks.
That is not a plan anymore.
With main account gone, so are my plans for larger operation. Not that am going to quit. O, no! Not until the Fat Lady. It's just that moves I planned out are no longer available. Need new plan.
In the mean time, I still have money to run. I'm responcible for it, and its no less important than before.
Plus, I still have System 10 and it's "on" right now. Except for hurricane that closed the market. I'm just waiting.

"Why 90% of Traders Lose" by Nadeem Walayat

Doesn't apply to my present situation, but a great read from Nadeem Walayat about 1987 crash, TA, pundits and economists and all.
 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37116.html

"In my opinion, a high 90% of traders are destined to lose because they are in fact learning from / listening to the 90% of losing traders that preceded them, who following wipe out in the markets have gone on to focus on writing about market price action and methodology with an even greater concentration observed to occur in the mainstream press as account busted traders / investors turn failure to trade into full time media careers and thus perpetuate a continuous cycle of failing traders guiding new traders towards similar failure. "

Thanks Nadeem

iBergamot Lost

And just like this, I lose. My biggest Flagship account puled money yesterday. Everything will be sold on Monday before close. He needs money. I promised that portfolio will be liquid and money are available at any time. He understood this is not one time kind of a deal, that money grows over time, thru ups and downs. But reality is not often what I perceive or prepared for. My biggest fear was not my losses - I had my fair share; always recovered and made more. I was afraid that IB will go under and take my account with it. Well...
Now I am like a cab driver whose Ford Crown Vic is taken away, and he is given Smart instead. He can drive around, but making money as cab driver... It's kinda not an option anymore.
And what the Fuck am I suppose to do with all my research, stock selection, preparation, strategy etc. You know...
Sad

In a Middle of Shit-Storm. El Macho

Your date has gone home
Now you're left on your own sweet own
Your tough-talkin' friend
Split on you in the bitter end
And you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry

They say you're a star
That's what the boys all say you are
I don't see much TV
So you don't mean shit to me
But you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry

They got a name for people like you
Yeh they do
And they got a name for people like me too
El Macho, El Macho

Now they want you to sing
Don't get shy or anything
The boys are all here
Gonna buy you another beer
'Cos you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry
El Macho, El Macho

Listen: Marc Faber; Jeremy Rifkin

Long interview with Marc Faber. Talks about everything



 Jeremy Rifkin, 'The Third Industrial Revolution' "How lateral power is transforming energy, the economy, and the world."

According to Rifkin, industrial revolutions occur when new energy regimes emerge and new communications systems enable them to become operational.  We are now entering a  third industrial revolution, one which combines renewable energy and internet technology to transform the power grid.

That's what I'm looking for

Possible T, just need the bottom

• I Bergamot

   /ES. 1418 is still important.
  Just in case, there is a traditional A/D T. Just need a double bottom for centerpost.
  DG ! Look it up. You are a Tee expert

  • F
• Darth_Gerb, Incorrigible Iconoclast
• EDIT: yes, very good.
  for the illiterate, the descending highs indicate a 'cash build up' period.
  a decline to a major low (NYMO) would indicate an end of that period, and a start of a rally, such as Fearless is alluding to. The rally would be of equal measure as the descending build-up period. The blue rectangle of 2010/2011 is a good example.
  -Gerb
  
  
  

  • F 

  http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31646#disqus_thread 

Positions. Last week's talks.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?che,ea,geo,gme,gway,hcn,kbh,kors,mcp,ree,tas,mr|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?nov,tayc,ttwo,calvf,epz.v|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HYG,IBB,IYR,KRE,MOO,XLU,XRT,XHB,TBT,XLF,LYSDY,UGA|B|P5,3,3

UGA is a short.
No TBT now. Looking to enter. May short TMF.
HCN, MCP, NOV, TAYC are 1/2pos. Add or drop.

Oct 15:

I surely hope that Fearless is right, and this is up and up from here.  As for put/call ratio, I don't see it that clear on expiration week. I remember my option trading years. This is a time when they loose sleep and run out of nail to chew. Just imagine you position is about to go to option heaven. Puff... you lose. I say - let them kill each other off - the air will be much clearer next Monday.
Meanwhile, at "major averages ranch", IWM is sucking brick, QQQ has plenty of overhead resistance to fight and SPX is back at the point where it's 50 points up or down from here. Truly in a market of stocks - you need to pick your spots. KORS + TIF = happy. KRE + YELP = sad.
I'm really looking at Dollar, famously showing "suicidal tendencies" (plagiarizes from Mole). If that thing breaks down from 79/80 box, where its been for past 20 days... One can have a dream. Right?
Back to your regularly scheduled chop-fest

 Oct 19:   http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31381

Daaam, I'm missing all fun. totally swamped at office with 2 (two!) surprise audits. These people surely want me to quit this damn job.
Open interest on ES stands at whooping 3017000. I view high open interest as indicator of too many shorts in the market. Last time it was over 3mil was in end of August, close to contract expiry. Those shorts got squeezed, today's shorts will get murdered. I'm not saying that this thing will turn today, but I will not short it for any more than few hours ( and probably not at all)
Please, keep in mind that I keep my stocks for weeks-to-months.

 Bollinger on VIX is so narrow, it may get step 1 within days. Or even today. Sell-sell-sell! Come to papa!

 Ahem, excuse me, But  Nasdaq A/D hit 3rd lowest reading in 6 months. -1650. The only two lower readings where near bottoms on June 1 and july 23.
what the hell is going on? Somebody bombed us?

• I Bergamot                      http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31398

  Fine. Them peoples are in pain and selling everything. I help them, poor souls, and bought some. Interestingly, 30yr bond doesn't look giddy at all. On a down day like today I was expecting it it be up much more.
  So my question is this. If money go out from stocks and PM - where are they going?
• volar, futures trader
   shocked here too mate. no panic volume in equities at the moment.
  Bottom is nas and NYSE volume, middle emini volume
  no panic selling yet- but really only thing green on my screen is spreads, and corn/wheat, natty.
  http://content.screencast.com/..
  
  

  I Bergamot

   That I understand. But stock traders usually don't cross over to these commodities. I, for one, cannot handle them.
  
  

  volar, futures trader

   my point. no volume- no real transfer. commods (obviously not high beta oil, copper, gold) are up- just a sign of strength for those markets
  
  

  I Bergamot

  Are you saying they are scaring the children?
  
  

  volar, futures trader

   i dunno- just saying i like to buy when others are in utter panic- this clearly not it today
  
  
  

  Not much short covering into close. I demand more blood! Pain, suffering and broken support . I am going to hate every second of this weekend.

  
  

Buy List

My buy list so large - it must be the top.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?plce,tif,ua,lulu,pvh,ann,gps,chs,ltd,omx,med,che|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?LNG,PHO,WTR,PLL,FSLR,BYI,MGAM,GRA,PPG,OMX,MANH,SNDK|B|P5,3,3

I Have Nothing to Lose but My Chains. Forward!

Fuck Lenin. That degenerate syphilitic screwed up big time, and he knew it too. Its easy to do shit, when you got unlimited German money to back you up.
Ends badly though. Greeks apparently don't know that.
Fuck them too, I got my money to worry about.
I am moving ahead. What I do is working. This is hardest and longest step of my life.
I'm crossing that 110th street and there is no turning back.
Forward !

Position changes

developing...

Stops getting hit. Sukkot is over.

Stopped out :
CHK (short)
MD
STMP - re-buy possible
TSLA
I'm really tired of TSLA. Elon Musk or not - this stock has taken me for a ride 3 times, with only losses to show for it. I'm sure it has a great future ahead. i have to wait and see.

Jewish holidays are over and I'm all tingling with anticipation...lol

Confidence indicator still does not show any confidence, and Golden Indicator has negative divergence. Both can last awhile , but not good regardless.

100% invested going into Shit-Storm

Positions:
Short CHK, UGA
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ea,ttwo,gme,kbh,geo,stmp,tsla,md,mr,mcp,ree,tas|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HYG,IBB,IYR,KRE,MOO,XLU,XRT,XHB,TBT,LYSDY,chk,uga|B

Market is War. Strike Back and The Heavy.

I eat what I kill.
Market is war - it doesn't wait for moment when I have time, or feel good, or in the mood to play.
Enemy will strike at every opportunity.
Likewise, there is an easy pray. I take it every time I see it. I'm always looking for it. Everyday.
I have a choice. I can be a predator or the pray. Guess who wins?

Listen: Marc Faber and more

Nina Xiang of China Money Podcast, guest Fritz Demopoulos, founder of Queen's Road Capital, shares his thoughts on China's Internet sector and entrepreneurship.
http://www.chinamoneypodcast.com/2012/09/24/fritz-demopoulos-i-back-committed-first-mover-start-ups/

 China is different because with a small amount of capital, you can survive for a long time. You give 20 companies a couple of million dollars a piece, they are going to last for five or six years even if those models haven't been successful. I'm not sure if that's the right way to look at it. If failure means going bankrupt, not many companies go bankrupt because you can last for a long time in creative ways in China.

Marc Faber. As usually - equities, cash, PM, corp bonds, real estate.

 FNN AU Marc Faber 'Optimistic Prediction 4 Central Bankers Fate

http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/09/ray-dalio-in-depth-interview-on-myriad.html

September 2012

developing...

Sld : XCO, ROST. __ Bot: LYSDY

Sld:
XCO on stop. No re-entry for now. Resistance at 7.50-8 is too strong.
ROST weak lately, lagging retailers. Re-entry possible. Wait.
(speaking of retailers XRT is much weaker than RTH, but RTH has no volume. Need to look what is inside of RTH)

Bot:
LYSDY.  1/3pos and looking for any BTFD. I had a full position closed on 5/17/12 at the same price. Took a loss of $1200 !
They finally got TOL approval. Jump 50% on news. This is a much needed good news for whole Rare Earths sector. Watching MCP, AVL, TAS.
Liquidating DCHAF for a couple of weeks now. Merger is announced with some other company, I have no interest in. That "other company" is investing in bunch of gold start-ups and looks like losing money on it. Methinks they going to use Dacha cash flow to cover these loses. I will be all out soon.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EXPE,HCN,VSI,CHE,MED,AVL,CP,rost,xco,yelp,fb

August

developing...

I am really in this business for Money.

Positions. 110% invested.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GDX,HYG,IBB,IYR,KRE,MOO,SLV,XLU,XRT,XHB,TBT
TBT 1/2
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CCJ,FNV,GRA,MANH,NOV,ROST,SBH,TSLA,TTWO,EA,FB,xco
TTWO, EA, XCO, CCJ all 1/2 - drop/or/add

Going into "The Hole" i am $110% in all long. Tried to reduce portfolio size, but every time I sell something - there is bunch of stocks to buy.
This is a maximum amount of positions. For sure, its hard to keep an eye even on that many. So much so, that I can't keep up with this journal. That's very bad. Must bring the records up to date, ASAP.

Closed positions: (All still on watch list)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?geo,rgld,qlti,vsi,xle

 

PF points to 1377SPX at about 50dma. This is the only one down target I see. All others point up to 1450 and more up. That aside, I can't say its all up and up from here. Just in case I have my stops all figured out, I'll take them and that's that. From here - a little push lower and we are going to test spring lows.

Yesterday I had a panic attack during the day. The last one I had was a year ago. Now, there was no specific reason for it. Unlike summer 2011, this year is  good to me. Account is pretty much at year's high. Summer of last year we where going into bear market, but somehow got turned up. Right now we seem to start a 3 to 6 month slow-moving, low-volatility bull market, but it's not confirmed yet. New highs on RUT (via IWM) and Bob's your uncle.

All the pressure build up for Jackson Hole, even tho I watch very little news nowadays, is badly affecting me and probably countless others. It's sick - how much power one man has over markets worldwide. I can't even guess what he will say and how markets will react to QE-or not-QE. In fact I will not be surprised if he says the same thing in 22 different ways, and market will draw a blank. Most importantly, I must avoid all this wrong-footed way of thinking, disregard the news and just look at charts. Its all there.

Watch lists

Silver. Add GDXJ on first reaction. SLW or AG or both.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,PSLV,SLW,PAAS,CDE,AG,HL,SSRI,SVM,EXK,MVG,GPL|B|P5,3,3

Agriculture. I have MOO. Watching MON. Not sure of this list, need to check fundies.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?moo,MON,POT,MOS,SQM,LNN,BG,VMI,AGU,RNF,AVD,IPI

Games. TTWO makes most bad-ass games. Watching GME, EA, TTWO, ATVI.  Also MGAM
sne, ttwo, gluu have no E.  GME pays 5.5%div.  GME 37%sh (14SR!). GLUU - 22%sh; TTWO - 17%sh.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GME,EA,ATVI,IGT,TTWO,game,gluu,ntdoy,sne,pwrd,ntes,cyou

Marketing Services. Mobile advertisement
Everybody talking about MM(has no E). Huge short interest on VCI (28%), CTCT (24%), VELT (29%).
YELP si is 51%, but i think its wrong float numbers.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?goog,fb,p,yelp,cco,mm,vci,velt,arb,ncmi,ctct,hhs,mdca

Assorted watch list. Long and short
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?LNG,DDD,GME,SD,IDTI,CRUS,MD,ARII,SHLD,ALGN,HCN,mgam

Read: Devil-Degenerate is not alone.

Devil-Degenerate Gambler has been gone for months. I know all too well, he is just around the corner . Waiting. I know as soon as I drop the guard he will piss away profits, buy a bunch of pink sheets and shit into my Ikea pleather chair. I keep a watchful eye and more... he is not alone:
Meet the Evil Trader
http://www.roguetraderette.com/2012/08/23/my-top-10-favourite-self-destructive-trading-thoughts/
Thanks, Jess

Read : Market Folly Q1 newsletter

What the big boys are up to:
http://www.hedgefundwisdom.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Free_Q1_2012_Issue.pdf

Read: Moon phases --- I'm not crazy!

Sheer Lunacy staring at the Heavens

http://www.markettiming.nl/img/image/file/RBS_MoonTrading13Jun10.pdf



The proposed trading strategy can be summarized as follows: buy an index on
the new moon (if this is a non-trading day, buy on the next trading day), hold till
the full moon (usually 14-15 days), sell the index on the full moon (similarly, if
non-trading day, sell on the next trading day), repeat the investment of the
overall amount on the next moon cycle (usually in 14-16 days), enjoy your profits!
S&P500 Data since 1928. £1,000 invested in 1928 would be £63,894 today but by buying on the New Moon and selling on the Full Moon it would return £1,502,689