On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.

 Over the next couple of hours I moved  some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
 HAO   - 24.16
 RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn? 
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03  Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO  - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
 2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26  - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what?  VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):

           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing? 

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.
           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.
           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

Detailed Position Review.

I feel a bit giddy and careless, so I must stop and look around. I have less than 10% cash.

SLD:
2/4 - EEM on stop 44.02 (B/E) (Total for EEM in 2013 is B/E)
         Note on EEM: emer mrkts bond where collapsing all January. See PCY, EMB. This bull flag is taking too long on daily, but weekly still looks ok. I think I need to go to individual countries or regions.
2/4 - FB on stop 28.45 (B/E on last half-pos lot) (Total for FB +3.5%)
2/4 - KOL on stop 24.83 (-3%)
2/4 - XHB on stop 28.45 (+8%)
2/4 - now cash is over 20% and I'm not giddy anymore
2/7 - PTR 137 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-85
2/7 - XOM 87.63 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-81 Decided not to wait. PBar to 86.04 - very unusual for this stock.
2/8 - TM 104.28 quick trade exit (+6.5%)

BOT:
2/5 - MON 102.31  Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134
2/5 - GE 22.56 (S12T ;  BTFT)
2/6 - TAN 18.40 Half pos. I sold it on 1/25 here at same price. (Note 2/10 - Damn it, its breaking down again)
2/6 - MOO 55.72 In low volume correction
2/7 - GEO 33.04 for quick trade
2/8 - ZSL 45.75 for quick trade
2/8 - XLE 78.24 on br-out to new high for quick trade
2/8 - HAO 24.69 Half pos
2/8 - EZA 67.75 Little more than half pos

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,JJG,TBT,KOL,SLX,IBB|B|P5,3,3
$CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,scty,tm,ccj,mon|B|P5,3,3
Chemicals and Utilities are 2x positions,
CG, FB, SCTY are half size

CCJ  -   Support 20.50 - 21. ER 2/11amc. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21.  Last PFT 37; now in correction (PFT 26?). All these PFT met.
EEM  - Stop 44.02 set. All out. Now in corr PFT 43. Last PFT 56;  61
FB      - Holding, Stop 28.45 set. All out. Waiting for it to cool-down after earn. In corr to PFT 25.
XLU   -Holding. PFT 38.50;  42;  45.50
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met.  More PFT 508-512.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - still waiting for 20dma. PFT 88 met. More targets 91.50;  95;  104
JJG   - Stop on close under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75. Last PFT 60.30
KOL - May sell today, watching. Sold. Looking to re-enter
SCTY- Higher low may fail. Support 14 - 14.50
SLX  - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72
TBT  - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 66 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
TM   - stop on close under 94.  ER 2/8bmo or was it today? PFT 107; 123; 138
TSLA - Holding. ER 2/11.  SR still 21!  37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50;  52; 61
XHB   - Stop 28.45 set. All out. Last PFT 39

MD - all must be entered by Feb 8, unless exit criteria met. This started S12T.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,PTR,GOOG,BRK/B,GE,IBM,RDS/B,CVX,bhp|B|P5,3,3
BHP is in BTFT and #14, but I took it just the same.
Still need  GE, RDS/B  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)
Update 2/5 - PTR to exit by 2/11; XOM in danger

 BTFT - all entered into OX paper trade on open 1/28/2013. LP as of 1/28.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HBC,BHP,PTR,JNJ,FMX,NVS,ORCL,PFE,TM,GOOG,BRK/B,XOM|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ibm,cvx,ge|B|P5,3,3
GE, RDS/B are not in BTFT and will have to be added within 2PP (by Feb 8)
  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)

Rotten Apple

BOT:
1/24 - SCTY 16.08 Half, now I have full position
1/24 - IBB 144.51
IBB - biotechnology ETF.
Building a bull flag, challenging last years high.
Not sure if this is a good spot to buy, it can correct to 140-142 and still look good. If that happens - this bull flag on daily chart will most likely morph into something else.
Watching 1st hour.
IBB sold off at open every day since 1/10 without exception. Change in this behavior will be a major tell

This rotten AAPL reported yesterday after close, and collapsed by 10% AH on pretty big volume.
I generally don't trade earnings and I haven't traded AAPL in a long time, but I really wanted to buy it yesterday thinking that it already fallen alot and bad news should be discounted by now. Guess not.

Also from yesterday:
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=33410#comment-775659947
ES open interest suddenly jumped to 2.9mil cars.
I maintain the view, that increase in open interest means an increased demand for shorts. I cannot believe this! People getting short into this non-stop ramp, or I am completely wrong on this "open interest" premise? I understand that correction of few percent will come sooner or later, but to make a short trade over past 2 days would require knowledge and skills I do not possess.
SPX
I haven't seen Mole's famous PF chart. Must be in sub-only section...
How long it can go on? I have 1600ish. Too high? Mole's 5 point PF target is 1690 and keeps growing !
This shit should be illegal, but it works
Until it doesn't
These two MA I have... they will cross again...someday...
Molecool pointed out:
 "Well, I checked a year ago and the P&F then was suggesting 1500+. So never forget that these are LONG term charts. A lot can happen in between."
I replied:
 Thats true.
My PF also had target of 1482, but then my MA's crossed and that would be an exit right before tax-day. ''Would" - because I did not use this chart back then. It became a part of my system last summer, thanks to you btw.
Point-and-figure charts from yesterday and rally in the beginning of last year :

Convictscott writes:
           ''The thing is that it is part of human bias to want to "get it right" and pick tops. It gives our ego a stroke. So for that (and other) reason the counter trend setups subjectively nearly always LOOK MUCH BETTER than the higher probability with trend setups.

It is extremely rare for a major top not to be retested. You should never get short a higher timeframe trend until this happens.''
Couldn't say it any better myself

Pearls of Wisdom of Jesse Livermore's fame:

"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
"It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape, establish your resistance points and be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you have determined it.
But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself – that is, against human nature."
"The game does not change and neither does human nature."

iBergamot BOT: IBB

BOT  IBB at 123.70.   Stop 119.75