Is there a QE ?

Everybody was really gung-ho about QE infinity. Every time there was a QE markets rise up. True.

 So the stocks going up, because QE is comming - there will be plenty of money. Really? Announcement comes and markets tops out.

 There is no QE-n.  It's a hoax.

      Look how illiquid markets are. Had there be a QE - all stocks and ETF's would be swimming in money. I searched for "money supply" and could not  find any data showing that its grown in a past year or two. Molecool agrees: " Right - most of it is being sterilized. We have been pretty flat on the printing front for a year. They still find ways to funnel cash to the PMs of course but we are not vastly expanding the money supply right now."

      O, and by the way, is there suppose to be 40-80 BILLION of QE3 money out there? Cus I don't see it. Not in a market, for sure.  Aren't they  suppose to buy 40 billion MBS per month, plus Twist, plus reinvestment of interest on their own bonds (don't you love that), plus line with Europe, plus reverse repo... I'm sure I left something out.

     Where is the money?   This is what I don't understand.  QE3 is SO much money, that even if a small portion of it goes into stock-market there should be an explosion of all prices. Clearly, this is not a case. You want to tell me that asset allocators are sitting there on a pile of money and not doing a thing? How they are going to explain it to their boss?

     Bullshit.
Fed doing something else, or nothing at all. Play golf, ride around in limo, collecting paycheck and writing memoirs. But, what do I know. I'm just a little fruit. (don't smoke the leaves)

UPDATE 12/14/2012:
       People go to NY Fed website (link) to see what treasury buys and sells, for how much and when. Some people claim that this schedule can help to time index trade, e.g. "it's a little less liquidity in the system, so far it's paid off at 66% of temp. operation sell days are good for a down move." There are 5-7 sell days per month. 66% of those is 2-4 days per month that are good for down move. OMG, are you fucking joking?
       See, this is a problem with statistics. If we have 70% of down, flat or negative days since the "beginning" of QE3 (or whatever it was from September top), if 70% of days are down - than 66% of good trades from above example offer no edge and can be disregarded as "mental masturbation".
        Why do you people watch this garbage? You know that it's basically the same people who publish GDP, inflation and unemployment? If they can go back and restate years of GDP (it happened a year or two ago), don't you think they can restate years of QE.
"Oops, sorry, there is really no money. What? NY Fed? O, its just a clerical error"

Welcome to Whipsaw Valley, USA

Yesterday I wrote here : http://evilspeculator.com/?p=32455

Suppose you are a longer term trader, and you are long a bunch of staff since summer. You sit thru Sept and October, because it's a consolidation and you are a trend-follower. Trend is up. Then November happens and o-shit - all kinds of support is taken out. Being a leveled-headed individual with 2 bear-markets in recent past, you say " the music has stopped and there is only one chair left. Next rally I will unload, go to cash, maybe go short".

Well, this is it 

 I Have a little short, still have a bunch of longs.
As for cash, will have to see what will be stopped out by the end of day.
Sold SIL and CG yesterday.
The difficulty of this moment in this context is: even if I stop out, I must be willing to buy it right back.
Welcome to Whipsaw Valley, USA

I remember all too well the whipsaw we had in fall of 2011 and little in end of May of this year. I always had problems during these times. Get scared and sell at lows  is the worst. I not only lose capital, i lose confidence and both takes time to rebuild. Having said that, I have a clear plan:
1. SPX moves over 1415-1425 and stays there. Market goes higher with 5ema(weekly) as support, and takes all my positions higher. (30% chance)
2.  SPX moves under 1390-1400 and stays there. Market makes a double bottom, higher low is better. Then it rallies. I like to see this the most, because it will setup a doule bottom for T-centerpost with next top months away. I have been watching this since last month in this post  http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2012/10/possible-t-just-need-bottom.html  (50% chance)
In a process I will be stopped out of almost everything. Then I will have to buy it all back.
3. The reason I stop out in #2 is this: if market fails to bottom - there is no support. Summer lows are not going to hold and this can turn into a big bear market. (20%chance) . Nobody cares, QE money stuck somewhere or may be there is no QE. Taxes go up, although I don't think it matters. Huge shakedown in army, CIA and government are going on right now. And they are not done. Something is up, I can smell it.


Interesting astrology piece from Karen Starich : http://www.zentrader.ca/blog/?p=16208#more-16208

There are significant planetary placements on November 28th that will mirror and bring a warning for events that will begin to unfold near December 22nd concerning the United States, Europe and the destiny for EU nations.  The turning point for Europe could be as critical as the agreements at Yalta between  Roosevelt,  Stalin, and  Churchill. It took four decades and the Malta agreements that took place in 1989 between Gorbachev and Bush to reverse many of the decisions made at the Yalta Conference in 1945. 

 The parallel to 1989  and 2012 is being mirrored in a very rare planetary alignment between Saturn, Pluto, and Jupiter. The power of this configuration can bring about a ‘shape shift’ where suddenly our way of life can be altered in a good way as it was for Europe in 1989, or in an evil way as it was in Tiananmen Square also in 1989.

Thanks, Karen

Food Riot

With seemingly unending sell-off in ag commodities, one has to wonder if food bull market is over.  My personal opinion is biased - I think we will never pay low prices for food again, however it may be because of retail mark-up and fuel prices. Case in point - look at coffee. Never mind that its been going down for 2 years, retail coffee is more expensive than ever.
That aside here is JJG (all grain etf). Look at volume difference in beginning of 2011 and now. This makes the "money hair" on my back go wu-wu-wu

 

 "December is the number one S&P 500 month..." and more about seasonality of December and early January from Jeff Hirsch

http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Election-Year-Forces-Temper-Decembers-Bullishness-SPY-QQQ

 

Ibiza - The Impossible Dream

With total collapse of my little world, I find myself firmly with my head up my ass. Silly and really strange how little of firm footing... And so on. Enough!
           Since my big plans went kaput, and I really don't want to start running somebody's money again I decided to get myself an impossible dream.
           This is not first, I had dreams so impossible there was no reason to even mention them. All came true! ALL ! And more.
           So , here it goes: Ibiza. Not directly of course. We have to go to Paris first. Paris is a must! 12 hour drive from Paris, France to Valencia, Spain ? Hmm... I can see it as a 2 day trip with stop in... Toulouse... no... Barcelona ..., but definitely to Ibiza. Can't drive directly into Ibiza - it's an island. May be there is a ferry boat?

in french it says: "mesdames et messieurs dans quelque instants nous allons entré dans la septième dimension" it means "ladies and gentlemen in few moments we are going to enter in the seventh dimension" :)
            BTW, the footage in this video is of  Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain). Just as good

Dollar Short

System 10 trying to short Dollar end of Sept, two in October and now.
This is it. It should die here, or DX goes higher, much higher.

From Molecool  http://evilspeculator.com/?p=32321#disqus_thread :

greenback is offering up an inside day + NR4 day. I would love to see an upside breach here which would really throw a curve ball at those Dollar bears. But of course I wouldn’t mind a drop below today’s lows tomorrow – less evil but potentially profitable nevertheless.

 (See how different daily candles looks on his and my chart !
Not all charts are the same. I guess different data providers.)

iBergamot

iBergamot ducks to avoid " a curve ball thrown at those Dollar bears".
(I am biased - thats not good)
 Looking at this chart and all I see is DOWN!

UPDATE:
That was quick.

Marketwatch:
10:49p
"Eurogroup meeting ends without agreement on Greece."
They had a meeting till 5 am local time?

Euro tanks, dollar rally, ES -10. Will see in a morning.
I thought nobody gives a shit about Greece anymore

Positions, changes

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iwm,EEM,IYR,KRE,MOO,SIL,SLV,SMH,XHB,xrt,cg|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLU,FIUIX,PPH,FPHAX,$CEX,FSCHX,IHI,FSMEX|B|P5,3,3
(etf's are not a positions. For tracking intraday only)

BOT:
11/14 - XRT 61.68 bot back at higher price
11/14 - FIUIX added to utilities
11/15 - CG  25.56   -  CARLYLE GROUP. Stop under 25
11/16 - IWM  2x-position  at 76.95, targeting low 80's than will see

i have money for 1 or 2 more. IBB comes to mind. Just like KRE and XRT I was shaken out at lows. May re-buy it today. Not sure.

Had my eyes on Carlyle for years, and especially since ipo. Stop under 25.

 I was pocking around in Finviz, and look
IWM short interest is 97% ! How is it even possible?

 

"Some people say peace is on the way,

But the worst is still to come.."

This shit does plays by the book. Spooky

 

Nobody is Buying (except Me)

It has been my thesis for a past couple of years, that individual investors are largely out of stock market. That means not only investment / trading, but also pensions and IRA's. Why? Well its risky, they lose money in bear markets and treasuries are the place to be. Right...
I haven't seen any interest from anybody. Not a question. Not an investment idea. not an opinion. It wasn't always like this. People used to talk about mutual funds all the time. Now they are all out.

On treasuries I wrote this http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2012/06/us-t-bond-bubble.html

On stocks - a great piece from Sober Look:

In spite of poor performance of a number of high profile IPOs this year, the demand for new issue equity in the US seems to be quite resilient. In fact the total IPO volume this year is the highest since the burst of the tech bubble.  Who is buying all these shares? Except for a couple of high profile cases, individual investors don't seem to be involved on a large scale. In fact on a net basis it certainly doesn't seem to be coming from mutual funds, as investors continue to pull record amounts.

 http://soberlook.com/2012/11/total-equity-offerings-in-us-hit-all.html
Thanks

Crash in Progress

in Wednesday Morning Briefing 19 hours ago

 I commented yesterday that i'm looking at one more move lower, even lower low. But I look at it as buying opp (for now)
Interesting, how ES broke yest low, but dollar and long bond didn't take out yest highs.

I added to FIUIX. It's utilities, I wanted to shift XLU into mutual fund - better for dividend accumulation. This is a good time to do it. Interested to see what kind of yield it will have at bottom.

Great piece from Sy Harding:

 Just a few thoughts to ponder as the stock market tumbles, and big-picture analysis extends the trend of the last couple of years of dysfunctional politics in Washington, predicting dire long-term consequences, even as there is increasing evidence of work being done to reach a compromise and end the dysfunction.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html
Thanks, Sy.

 "O mio babbino caro" ("Oh My Beloved Father") is a soprano aria from the opera Gianni Schicchi (1918), by Giacomo Puccini, to a libretto by Giovacchino Forzano. It is sung by Lauretta after tensions between her father Schicchi and the family of Rinuccio, the boy she loves, have reached a breaking point that threatens to separate her from Rinuccio. It provides a contrasting interlude expressing lyrical simplicity and single-hearted love in the atmosphere of hypocrisy, jealousy, double-dealing and feuding in medieval Florence

100years later - nothing changes. NOTHING !

Fiscal Cliff, Donald Trump and Faber's Prostitutes

From the Fly at http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/:

I’ve seen the future and there are lower stock prices in it. The republicans have nothing to lose but the legacy and job approval rating of their sitting President. We are going OVER the fiscal cliff, AND MORE. You wait and see. It’s going to be a shit show. Not only that, the elections are over and earnings season was for shit. The Fed is going to ease up on the gas because Obama is already in. Why exert themselves, now that their jobs are secure?
 I want you to heed my final warning and understand that the government is intent on inflicting damage to you. They will not avoid the fiscal cliff–but purposely drop you off of it.

"Let me get this straight . . .
We're going to be "gifted" with a health care plan we are forced to purchase and fined if we don't! Which purportedly covers at least ten million more people without adding a single new doctor, but provides for 16,000 new IRS agents, written by a committee whose chairman says he doesn't understand it, passed by a Congress that didn't read it but exempted themselves from it, and signed by a Dumbo President who smokes, with funding administered by a treasury chief who didn't pay his taxes, for which we'll be taxed for four years before any benefits take effect, by a government which has already bankrupted Social Security and Medicare, all to be overseen by a surgeon general who is obese , and financed by a country that's broke!!!!!
'What the hell could possibly go wrong?'" ~ Donald Trump

  Marc Faber : “The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline, it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer, it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables, it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car, it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap, it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US.” - Marc Faber said in 2008 commenting on the US Stimulus package

Positions, Changes

System 5 is the Main account now. No margin, no shorting (except inverse ETF's ), no futures. Right...
Positions
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,iyr,kre,moo,sil,slv,smh,xhb|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?nya,fiuix,fphax,fschx,fsmex|B|P5,3,3

SLD:
11/1 - XLU 36.68 no re-entry. Will add to mut fund
11/7 - IBB 129.15 looking to re-enter
11/8 - XLF 15.55
11/8 - KRE 27.15 bot back
11/8 - HYG 91.76
11/9 - XRT 60.44

BOT:
11/7 - SLV 30.89 
11/9 - KRE 27.30 yes, I bought it back a day later
11/9 - SMH 31.50 this tech is stronger than market. Tight stop

WATCH LIST:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iwm,dvy,hyg,xlf,ibb,xlb,xli,xlk,pho,gdxj,fxi,ifn|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?remx,ura,tan,kol,slx,|B|P5,3,3
China. HAO is the way to go-go.
  http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FXI,GXC,MCHI,CHIQ,HAO,PGJ|B|J[hao]

3:00pm

I Bergamot

/ES. There is no bottom without follow-thru to over 1390.
May be one more move lower, but not necessary higher low?
/DX. What a whippy bastard, already stopped out twice. Is it breaking down or what?
no go-go in sight

Bloody bottom ?

I Bergamot

/ES. Margin liquidation again.  Open interest at 3052k (up by 100k in 2 days - boys getting short) and probably grown today. Get your bear hats on. Bulls need a miracle.
PS. Closing at the lows is kinda bullish. Capitulation? DX not rising, long bond got excited only after auction etc...

"What separates the men from the boys" and more from Lee Cooperman

Lee Cooperman, founder of hedge fund firm Omega Advisors,  gave a presentation in September 2012 entitled, "Observations regarding: life, hedge funds, the investment outlook" at Roger Williams University.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/10/lee-cooperman-on-hedge-funds-investment.html

Amazing. This guy is running System 9. Ha, and I thought I invented something - he has been doing it for years. 6.6 bil under management.

If you produce the returns, you'll grow.  What separates the men from the boys is how you do during periods of adversity

- 'Obsession': the word he uses to describe his approach to investing

- The harder he works, the luckier he got.  To be successful, you have to make sacrifices. 

"It doesn't matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle; when the sun comes up you'd better be running."

On Life

- Four observations: 1. there's nothing more important than family,