Position groups with most recent position size, includes gain/loss and commissions. 70% invested in 30 positions. Average position size
BAL 1.08 - Failed at 50dMA. Support zone 52-53, if fails will create H&S top. More support down to 50. Weekly chart looked great, like a buyable dip, but needs to go over 55 asap to stay so. PFTargets: 51.50; longer term 89
JJG 0.51 NIB 1.03 - Cocoa started on Mar 15, 2013 in this post (link), I bot on 3/20 and 28. Support 29-30 and holding fine on weekly and daily. I may add some if going to get a weekly buy signal. PFT 37; 56 MON 1.08 - Loss of momentum persists, but weakness on VP is gone. Still it stall in 105-108 range and seems to rolling over on daily and weekly. Support 105, and more 97.50-98.50. I'm thinking of stepping aside and reloading at support levels. PFT 98.50; 111; 133 TSCO 0.56
DRYS 0.36 NM 0.42 My main concern is very high volume 10%+ moves since May 20. Makes it impossible to have a close stop. PFT (5.40 met); 6.55; 7 and 7.50 TNK 0.55 Support 2.8 and 2.6. PFT 3.35 and 4.32, but it has to get thru 200dma at around 3.11 and falling.
5/30/2013 SOLD TNK @ 2.89 on close stop below 3-day low. (+16% on half-position size). It looked weak throut the day. Looking to reenter in support around 2.6
This Irregular small VO T 4/2013 will run out in about a week. I sketched it first almost a month ago in this post (link) . There is absolutely nothing beyond that, as far as T Theory goes. Mostly all of internal divergences are gone, and aside from everything being overbought and obnoxiously bullish - there are absolutely no indication of immediate market top.
I am a Perma Bear. I don't generally trade like this, I've been mostly long or all long for years, while trying to pick important market tops along the way. How can one reconcile being long and Bearish on everything at the same time? Would it be better to suspend forecasting and just "trade set-ups"? Rubbish.
Only people who been not paying attention to recent events, only people who don't care to think, only those why are busy chasing little dot up and down a screen - only those don't understand that financial markets are a total fucking scam. The only people who realize what is hidden behind a curtain are those who made money in markets, then lost it, than made it again, over and over until enough experience accumulated, lessons learned and independence earned by virtue of losing money. Call it tuition, call it play money or sacrifice to Market Gods - all the same. The only way to find out what works is to try it, and if it works long enough..., well .... I've been trading basically the same methodology for years, because it makes money on a money. System 9 Lite took it first trades almost 10 years ago, although back then it was System 5, followed by 6 and 7 - all of these are basically the same thing gradually getting better.
My generally very Bearish views are based on the facts that things are not what presented on Tee-Vee, in reality (where I live) everything is much-much worse, and not getting improved at all. Quite the opposite. Unless this objective reality will start to reflect some of excitement of financial markets; or until stocks come into agreement with real downward wealth spiral (worldwide) - I will remain Perma-Bear, hopeful that change will come, but doing what I have to do for now.
Absolutely THE biggest danger I see is a remote but catastrophic possibility of some kind of internet outage, combined with blackouts, massive hacker attacks and all kinds of problems that have to do with communications. The best investment anybody can make is to put aside enough cash to cover monthly expenses, keep it at home, with your gun, passport and bottled water. Can't say the same about markets. Stop? How is stop will get triggered if internet is down? Can one expect to be able to get out in front of millions of traders, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, all of whom seemingly have the same risk controls? That is exactly how 1987 and Flash Crash of 2010 happened.
I sold all of mine long term System 1 positions over a month ago (all except VWINX), because I know that unless I sell when I can, I will be selling what I can, and not on favorable terms. System 1 never had a losing year. System 9 was down over 30% in 2008, and down about 15% in 2011, but always recovered and made new high. My main System 9 Lite account is down 1-2% off its high right now, and I sleep like a baby.
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UPDATE 12/22/2013
This documentary came out in September 2013, but I first saw it in December.
It eco's many of mine concerns and views, although I am much less socialistic. FOUR HORSEMEN is an award winning independent feature documentary which lifts the lid on how the world really works.
We got all kinds of good stuff in this United States government, you know...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a Space Weather Prediction Center http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/. Their forecast for end of May - beginning of June is actually mild :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with moderate activity likely and a chance for high
activity levels throughout the forecast period.
Still we had 3 X-Class flares in a row and more expected over next couple of days. I noticed how high solar activity and solar storms affected mass-psychology last year, but now I am taking notes. Some people will become over-active, talk too loud, show inadequate response to common stressers, while others will suffer from headaches, be tired and fatigued, and painfully annoyed by "crazies". I've seen this behavior during late spring - early summer 2012, and it coincided with increase in Solar activity. Correlation doesn't mean causation, but SPX lost almost 200 points during that period. Notable increase was in mid 2012 alongside 20%+ market drop, but pales in comparison to 2000-2002 period.
To further aggravate matters, Solar Cycle is expected to reach its maximum just about now. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a
consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle
24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in
December, 2008..., solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013.
Solar Cycles maximums generally coincide with market peaks, but not exactly to the day.Basicallyif there are some problems out there they will be exacerbated by increase in solar activity, but I wouldn't bet the farm on this one piece of the puzzle.
Some astrology from Raj - there is a certain Mars alignment that happened every time market crashed big. Mars opposite Rahu (exact) = 9/14/01! = 10/12/87! = 10/24/29!
Its not a rare Mars aspect (happens every 1-2years), and it already happened yesterday on 5/13/2013, while market continues to rip higher. Last similar setup happened on 1/24/2013 and was a miss. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/05/mars-and-dragon.html
Lastly on a menu of voodoo science is a new collection on fine T's.
I continue to study T Theory of Terry Laundry and decided to look back more than I did in latest Internals Study here (link). Below are classic T Theory Short Range T's, based on Volume Oscillator.
Blue T8/2011 has Cash Build-Up Phase of over a year, and resolved very nicely in October of last year. Interesting phenomenon is a break of trend line in summer 2011 - a nasty bull trap I remember all too well, denoted by yellow oval. Do we have same condition now? Time will tell, besides I don't know if its a valid approach.
Green T6/2012 has questionable Cash Build-Up Phase, and ended as a dud. Both T's have SPX rising on a left side of center-post, which is unnatural. Also the beginning of Cash Build-Up (initial spike) price area was retested going into center-post of new T in both cases. I doubt very much that I would recognize either T in real time, but following this logic I can see a new Red T setting up.
Implications are: big drop is imminent targeting 1400 SPX area, followed by rally into 2014
New moon was 2 days ago, Solar is active non-stop with 2 M-Class flares last week and X-Class today. We are going to get fried down here, if there is no respite sometime soon.
Planting starts this week, although its still 40's at night. If we don't plant now - there is not going to be any harvest anyway. I don't fertilaze, but I can't see what choice farmers will have. POT, MOS or bust, but I need a dip to buy. Grains are not looking very promising, but I opened half size JJG on possible double-bottom with some volume profile improvement. Its quite possible that I will buy more at lower price.
Finviz has 2 groups I know nothing about - Farm products and Food Major, of which I have some in my watch list. Fly just went long ANFI - a 300mil Food-Major out of Emirates- I don't see this as good entry. Many talking about water stocks, but LNN is in a process of retesting a double top neckline (its a pretty big January-April double top). I was looking at GAGA - horrible looking chart of profitable largest greenhouse vegetable producers in China. The seems to be changing some things that may improve the situation, plus I am interested in everything China.
From all gold-miners around the world - these are profitable, trade over 200k per day, and priced over $1.Sorted by advance from 50 day low, which is still April Crash low
I continue to study work of late Terry Laundry, and finally got to recreating of his "adaptive channels". Terry used some kind of his own formula of price channels around 55 day moving average (MA) and 39 week MA. I noticed on his plots that while upper boundary contained almost all of price tops, but lower boundary failed often and especially so during bear markets. By no means his channels are a holy grail, but they seems to be more useful for analysis than Bolinger Bands (BBands), mainly because adaptive channels don't expand hugely after big price move.
I was able to recreate something closely resembling his Adaptive Channels using Keltner Channel around 50day EMA, with boundaries of 4 times 100-period ATR on daily chart of SPX.
At the same time I wanted to continue this notion from previous post about extreme distance of price from important MA's. Here I have a percentage difference between price and 5, 50 and 200 EMA. (Note: I don't like to use exponential averages, but couldn't find an option with simple MA for this study. Besides, difference between the two is usually negligible and disappears during strong trend, like what we have now).
Visibly none of them is extreme. I think it will be worthwhile to follow 200 (plotted on bottom panel), as it picks the same extremes as 50 (2nd panel from bottom)), but with less noise. Right now its pushing 10%, which is a sufficient level for price top, like in spring and again in fall of 2012. The only danger to this analysis is that indicator can embed in 10%+ range like in early 2011 (green rectangle), and continue to hug upper envelope for weeks.
Does it mean exhaustion of prevailing trend? Time will tell
BOT:
5/1 - IMAX 25.85 Half pos. It seems to hold 25-26 support level. I sold it on bad reaction to earnings on 4/25 at about same price, and took a loss off 27.74 original purchase price. Same plan as before : Looking to add on strength above 27 and eventually 28. PFT 33; 37; 43.50
SLD:
5/1 - SCTY 27.93 Final 1/4 out (+38% on this one!) My target was 28.50, it almost got there today. I don't think its a top, but I wanted to go back into IMAX without increasing invested amount (little less than 50% of account invested atm)
The S&P futures fell like a winding top about to explode upward!!!
Said Danny Riley of MrTopStep
All the talk is about 1600SPX and higher. How high? There are all kind of numbers, even as high as 1750. What happened to downside? Are we ever going to correct again?
Look at monthly chart. Yes, it can go up more. Is it a low risk entry? NO.
Sto is pushing overbought, but price can push a bit higher for a month or two. SPY is extended above 10 and 20 months MA almost to extreme degree. I noticed that when its above 20 months MA by about 200SPX points - there is a correction back to aforementioned Moving Averages. It happened without exceptions 5 times in past 10 years. Loss of momentum is evident in MACD, similar to 2007, and volume is relatively stagnant (just like back in late 2006).
I am not going to look for parallels between then and now. Not only because every top is different, but it just doesn't matter to me. I don't hold positions for years. Having said that, I am not looking to increase my exposure to general stock market at this time, except for occasional "special situation". Aggressive day-trades is a whole different topic. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLY,XLU,IYT,$XAU|B|P5,3,3
Let me drop a scandalous thought in the mix:
This whole time, while market was rallying, everybody agreed that its
a “FED induced rally”, backed by endless liquidity. Even my co-workers
know that. Liquidity? Please refer to 4/23 mini flash-crash – they
mopped that ‘liquidity’ out in less than 5 minutes.
As for latest QE, I have a variant perception based on TLT and MBB
just now getting back to September levels (when this QE supposedly
started). 85bil per month should have done more, methinks. I know, I
know…. Keep your quotes from “Economics 101″ to yourself, I read the
same books.
My point simply is this: THERE IS NO QE !!!
Fed ain’t got your back, PPT is on vacation until next elections and liquidity is an illusion.
Plan accordingly!
PS. What? NY Fed website?
Please, don’t be a child
PPS. Enjoy your summer
