Select Themes Review and Update

There are some Themes that kinda active, but phasing in and out mostly due to unending bear market or lack of correlation. I think Themes need to be reviewed in general at-least once a year to make sure that fundamentals didn't change much, see if big stocks lead or small, see if weightings of stocks in corresponding ETF's where rebalanced, but mainly to update watch lists. If my assumptions about industry or situation are correct, then price action will confirm. Otherwise I would have to deal will long grind and pain of System8... I would rather not... a have much better methods in System9 and System12.

Do nothing which is of no use.       -Miyamoto Musashi, 1645-

Uranium for Sale

And getting cheaper everyday. Every rally was sold to new lows since Fukushima accident in 2011, even thou there are many more nuclear power stations being build all around the World. They can't run base load of a solar panel. Really.

Top ETF is URA from Global X, with 0.7% fee, only 200mil in assets, and down 70% from inception in 2010.
http://www.globalxfunds.com/URA
Top 3 holdings: CCJ, DNN, URPTF (proxy for price of U92) - together almost 50% of fund. It also include several companies not traded in US - Australian Syrah, French Areva, etc.
USU filed for bankruptcy in March. Its happening...!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NLR,URA,CCJ,DNN,URZ,UEC,URG,URRE,UUUU,URPTF,PALAF,FCUUF|D|C20|0

CCJ is the only real company, DNN comes a distant second. UEC (with huge short in it) and UUUU are Mickey's 'sponsors'. The other little ones attracted some inst. buying...lol... What a fucking mess... But correlated, active and with enough volume.
More here: http://investorintel.com/nuclear-energy-stock/
Different view of industry: https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/nuclear-renaissance#/overview

NLR is a tiny (only 75mil) ETF from MarketVectors invested by 70% into utilities known to use nuclear power. Like DUK, NEE, SO, D, PPL etc. I already have them in utility mut fund in System9.
http://www.vaneck.com/market-vectors/equity-etfs/nlr/snapshot/

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Shippers on Deck

I made a Discovery at Sea (post-link) a little over a year ago. Shipping companies made me alot of money, even when I traded them short term. I wish I decided to focus more on dividends and hold them longer, as market happened to accommodate. Industry dynamics didn't change much over this year, top 20 are almost the same and look much better than smaller stocks.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TK,GLNG,TGP,TOO,SSW,GMLP,GLOG,SFL,CMRE|C|C20|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NVGS,DRYS,NMM,CPLP,MATX,NM,DSX,NAT,SB,DLNG,dac,vlccf|C|C20|0

SEA is a small (120mil) illiquid ETF with 0.7% exp ratio. Largest holding, at maximum allowed allocation of 20%, is Maersk. There is no other way to invest in it from US I'm aware of.
http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/sea
Considering how well correlated top of list is, I will exit SEA from BCM account (on either a close stop or next rip) , wait an obligatory month (damn wash), and begin taking shippers. System9 will keep SEA until multiple sell signals accumulate.
These are not my smoothest moves... he-he

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Pot(ty) Training

Marijuana Theme quickly turned into pump-n-dump. So many new penny stocks where listed here and in Canada, and promptly proceeded down by 50-90%.
I am well trained to work thru this shit.  Gold stocks now, Rare Earths before, Home Builders awhile ago - I've seen this movie more than once. Selling most of pot stocks on last rip was a wise decision, and not a hard one to make at 500-1000% profit. Really, hundreds into thousands... nicccce
Now picture is muddy, but I still think we will know more after elections. Its not over.
Looking to reload with tiny size positions...lol
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,GRNH,GWPH,CANN,canv|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FSPM,MCIG,NVLX,VAPE,ATTBF,EXMT,GWPRF,HSCC,LATF,NTRR|B|P5,3,3|0

More here:
http://marijuanastocks.com/content/list-marijuana-stocks
http://money.msn.com/investing/14-cannabis-stocks-to-watch-in-2014-1

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Raring for Rare Earths

I tried to buy Rare Earth stocks (my old fetish) about a year ago, but it didn't take. Situation is largely the same: these companies are either a fraud, or a delusion. Nobody talks about them, dedicated forum is all but empty. The only two companies doing something is still MCP and LYSDY, both down about 70% from year ago.

In a life of mining company, this period between exploration and production is called "Valley if Death"... indeed it is. Many blown up or sold, most of remaining will not survive in their present form. I am controlling my eagerness to buy some, but several good looking set-ups are present for at-least a meaningful bounce. Also watching related items in titanium, palladium, lithium and antimony.
Start here:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?REMX,RTI,TC,REE,TAS,GMO,LYSDY,MCP,PAL,UAMY,uuraf,LIT|B|P5,3,3|0

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Mother Russia 

Come on Vladimir Vladimirovich, the World is watching...
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$RTSI,RSX,CTCM,MBT,MTL,QIWI,VIP,YNDX,OGZPY,SBRCY,NILSY,LUKOY|B|P5,3,3|0

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--------------------Watch List----------------------
I trade only my own watch list... exceptions are futile

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MHFI,GEO,CXW,DVA,LO,WDC,IMAX,CHKP,XON,GS,CG,tsla|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,MOO,MON,ADM,POT,MOS,HRL,TSCO,LNN,CRESY,SQM|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XHB,LEN,DHI,PHM,TOL,WY,PCL,RYN,PCH,EXP,TXI,mlm|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?URA,CCJ,DNN,URZ,UEC,URG,UUUU,URPTF,CVV,GTI,ENTG,fcsmf|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TK,GLNG,SSW,SFL,CMRE,DRYS,NM,MATX,VLCCF|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EEM,FXI,PGJ,HAO,RSX,AFK,FM,VNM,TUR,IFN,TTF,idx|B|P5,3,3|0
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,RSP,PRF,XOM,GE,WFC,MSFT,CVX,JPM,googl,brk/b|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?tan,scty,fslr,enph,spwr,slx,kol,x,aks,mtl,mt,crs|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AMLP,XLU,FIUIX,IYR,REM,PSP,LYSDY,HEMP,MJNA,MDBX,CBIS,GWPH|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,CEF,GDX,SIL,PPP,AG,RGLD,FNV,SPPP,COPX,SCCO,FCX|B|P5,3,3|0

These where hit very hard during March-April sell off. 3D and pawn-shops are of interest to me.
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DDD,SSYS,ONVO,EZPW,FCFS,CSH,YELP,FEYE,SPLK,WDAY,CACQ,MPEL|B|P5,3,3|0

More here: http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2014/04/digging.html
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More Real Stuff - Agriculture

...developing...

Continue my research of commodity theme, aka Real Stuff.

Some observations:
- Investing in commodities, as a group, via index and corresponding etf may not be practical. Detailed review in this post (link). The biggest and most liquid etf is DBC, which is a pure gambling (rebalanced in November), and been stuck in 24-29 range for 3 years.
- I will be using $CCI (corresponding etf is GCC) and RJI as base line broad commodity index. RJI seems more liquid. Both are volatile like hell, but really don't move enough to make up for aggravation. Both seems to be painting some kind of sideways base on weekly chart, but I don't want to get involved with long term investment in these, because costs are very high.
- There is no sensible way to short commodity index via inverse etf's. Some inverse leveraged etf's (like SCO) are usable tradable instruments for short term only (days, not weeks). Decay and costs are very real and brutal. There is no practical way to sell short these commodity inverse leveraged etf's either (see update in this post link)
- Need to dig deeper into sub-themes, and possibly find some long-term trends. Commodities are not like stocks, they are not an asset class. Rather they are input costs, that can be forecasted and stored for future use. Here I go again with forecasting, but really - manufacturer need to plan ahead what to order from producer, who needs to let miner/grower know how much stuff they will need, because mining/growing takes time, and doesn't always work out. THEY need a forecast. Still, they are only human (hopefully) and do make mistakes. Error in forecasting creates rapid repricing, aka market turns, more often than trends

Right off the bat, I am familiar with Agricultural Commodities.

Following and trading grains via etf's since 2012, I wrote Food Riot post (link) with definite bullish bias, because "I think we will never pay low prices for food again". That assertion was correct, as our food shopping is more expensive than before, however trading on this opinion costed me some last year. To wit, all grain etf JJG is much lower now. My stops and position sizing served as excellent protection, my losses in grains are trivial, as I continuously trying to pick a bottom. Corn is not going to zero.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GCC,RJI,RJA,DBA,DAG,JJA,JJG,COW,moo|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,$SOYB,SOYB,$CORN,CORN,$WHEAT,weat,BAL,NIB,JO,SGG|B|P5,3,3


I entered JJG again on 2/4/2014 and wrote here (link):

Now there seems to be a legit double-bottom setting up. I marked it on a chart. 43.level has to hold, if there is an immediate back test. Measured move takes us to 100day ma.
I got 1/2 position on
If anybody heard any rumors, fundamentals, planting intention etc - PLEASE DON"T TELL ME!  I don't want to know

(People replied with funny pictures, and I made some general comments anyway) 

 

 I have half size BAL (cotton), half JJG, full size NIB (cocoa) and want more.

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DBA 

 PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund tracks DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Excess Return Index, rebalanced in November to base weights and then just rolls active contracts.

Allocation makes sense, except I think coffee is too much and cotton too little, but what do i know...?

Corn           12.50

Live Cattle  12.50
Soybeans    12.50
Sugar         12.50
Cocoa        11.11
Coffee        11.11
Lean Hogs        8.33
Kansas Wheat  6.25
Wheat              6.25
Feeder Cattle   4.17
Cotton              2.78

http://www.invescopowershares.com/products/overview.aspx?ticker=DBA

There is a very clear possibility of double bottom on DBA, with implications for extended rally in Ag Commodities and Lifestock.

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RJA - another Mr Bow-Tie's monstrosity, with 21 components, covering not just the usual Ag's and Cows, but also lumber, rubber, rice, OJ, and even milk (0.2%). Largest allocation (over 10%) are Corn, Wheat, Cotton, Soy; followed by Coffee, Cattle and Cocoa. Makes sense to me.

Rogers Agriculture Index is 35% of RJI, and is second largest component of Rogers International Commodities Index, after Energy. RJA is also rebalanced at the start of every month back to initial weights.

 http://beelandinterests.com/PDF/RICI%20Handbook_Jan%2027.2014.pdf

http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/weight.asp

Although, RJA doesn't have a well pronounced double-bottom (like DBA), its weekly chart also shows positive divergence on oscillators, best 3-weeks rally in many months. $8 level must hold any reaction, or there is no bottom

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DAG is a note (etn) on corn, soy, sugar and wheat at 25% each

http://powersharesetns.com/portal/site/etns/agriculture

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JJA is a note (etn), sector weights make no sense whatsoever, usual 0.75% fee

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JJG - another iPath note - all grain etn

Soy   42%

Corn 35%

Wheat 22%

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 Water - PIO, PHO

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 DBB - PowerShares Base Metals is equal thirds aluminum, zinc and copper. Rebalanced in November and roll.

Frequently goes premium/discount to NAV by as much as 1%.

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