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Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Solar Cycle Maximum

We got all kinds of good stuff in this United States government, you know...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a Space Weather Prediction Center http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/. Their forecast for end of May - beginning of June is actually mild :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with moderate activity likely and a chance for high
activity levels throughout the forecast period. 

Latest Sunspot number predictionStill we had 3 X-Class flares in a row and more expected over next couple of days. I noticed how high solar activity and solar storms affected mass-psychology last year, but now I am taking notes. Some people will become over-active, talk too loud, show inadequate response to common stressers, while others will suffer from headaches, be tired and fatigued, and painfully annoyed by "crazies". I've seen this behavior during late spring - early summer 2012, and it coincided with increase in Solar activity. Correlation doesn't mean causation, but SPX lost almost 200 points during that period. Notable increase was in mid 2012 alongside 20%+ market drop, but pales in comparison to 2000-2002 period.

To further aggravate matters, Solar Cycle is expected to reach its maximum just about now.
May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008..., solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013.
Solar Cycles maximums generally coincide with market peaks, but not exactly to the day. Basically if there are some problems out there they will be exacerbated by increase in solar activity, but I wouldn't bet the farm on this one piece of the puzzle.

Some astrology from Raj - there is a certain Mars alignment that happened every time market crashed big. Mars opposite Rahu (exact) = 9/14/01! = 10/12/87! = 10/24/29!
 Its not a rare Mars aspect (happens every 1-2years), and it already happened yesterday on 5/13/2013, while market continues to rip higher. Last similar setup happened on 1/24/2013 and was a miss.

Lastly on a menu of voodoo science is a new collection on fine T's.
I continue to study T Theory of Terry Laundry and decided to look back more than I did in latest Internals Study here (link). Below are classic T Theory Short Range T's, based on Volume Oscillator.
        Blue T8/2011 has Cash Build-Up Phase of over a year, and resolved very nicely in October of last year. Interesting phenomenon is a break of trend line in summer 2011 - a nasty bull trap I remember all too well, denoted by yellow oval. Do we have same condition now? Time will tell, besides I don't know if its a valid approach.
       Green T6/2012 has questionable Cash Build-Up Phase, and ended as a dud. Both T's have SPX rising on a left side of center-post, which is unnatural. Also the beginning of Cash Build-Up (initial spike) price area was retested going into center-post of new T in both cases. I doubt very much that I would recognize either T in real time, but following this logic I can see a new Red T setting up.
       Implications are: big drop is imminent targeting 1400 SPX area, followed by rally into 2014

Small VO T's from 4/29/2013

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