Select Themes Review and Update

There are some Themes that kinda active, but phasing in and out mostly due to unending bear market or lack of correlation. I think Themes need to be reviewed in general at-least once a year to make sure that fundamentals didn't change much, see if big stocks lead or small, see if weightings of stocks in corresponding ETF's where rebalanced, but mainly to update watch lists. If my assumptions about industry or situation are correct, then price action will confirm. Otherwise I would have to deal will long grind and pain of System8... I would rather not... a have much better methods in System9 and System12.

Do nothing which is of no use.       -Miyamoto Musashi, 1645-

Uranium for Sale

And getting cheaper everyday. Every rally was sold to new lows since Fukushima accident in 2011, even thou there are many more nuclear power stations being build all around the World. They can't run base load of a solar panel. Really.

Top ETF is URA from Global X, with 0.7% fee, only 200mil in assets, and down 70% from inception in 2010.
http://www.globalxfunds.com/URA
Top 3 holdings: CCJ, DNN, URPTF (proxy for price of U92) - together almost 50% of fund. It also include several companies not traded in US - Australian Syrah, French Areva, etc.
USU filed for bankruptcy in March. Its happening...!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NLR,URA,CCJ,DNN,URZ,UEC,URG,URRE,UUUU,URPTF,PALAF,FCUUF|D|C20|0

CCJ is the only real company, DNN comes a distant second. UEC (with huge short in it) and UUUU are Mickey's 'sponsors'. The other little ones attracted some inst. buying...lol... What a fucking mess... But correlated, active and with enough volume.
More here: http://investorintel.com/nuclear-energy-stock/
Different view of industry: https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/nuclear-renaissance#/overview

NLR is a tiny (only 75mil) ETF from MarketVectors invested by 70% into utilities known to use nuclear power. Like DUK, NEE, SO, D, PPL etc. I already have them in utility mut fund in System9.
http://www.vaneck.com/market-vectors/equity-etfs/nlr/snapshot/

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Shippers on Deck

I made a Discovery at Sea (post-link) a little over a year ago. Shipping companies made me alot of money, even when I traded them short term. I wish I decided to focus more on dividends and hold them longer, as market happened to accommodate. Industry dynamics didn't change much over this year, top 20 are almost the same and look much better than smaller stocks.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TK,GLNG,TGP,TOO,SSW,GMLP,GLOG,SFL,CMRE|C|C20|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NVGS,DRYS,NMM,CPLP,MATX,NM,DSX,NAT,SB,DLNG,dac,vlccf|C|C20|0

SEA is a small (120mil) illiquid ETF with 0.7% exp ratio. Largest holding, at maximum allowed allocation of 20%, is Maersk. There is no other way to invest in it from US I'm aware of.
http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/sea
Considering how well correlated top of list is, I will exit SEA from BCM account (on either a close stop or next rip) , wait an obligatory month (damn wash), and begin taking shippers. System9 will keep SEA until multiple sell signals accumulate.
These are not my smoothest moves... he-he

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Pot(ty) Training

Marijuana Theme quickly turned into pump-n-dump. So many new penny stocks where listed here and in Canada, and promptly proceeded down by 50-90%.
I am well trained to work thru this shit.  Gold stocks now, Rare Earths before, Home Builders awhile ago - I've seen this movie more than once. Selling most of pot stocks on last rip was a wise decision, and not a hard one to make at 500-1000% profit. Really, hundreds into thousands... nicccce
Now picture is muddy, but I still think we will know more after elections. Its not over.
Looking to reload with tiny size positions...lol
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,GRNH,GWPH,CANN,canv|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FSPM,MCIG,NVLX,VAPE,ATTBF,EXMT,GWPRF,HSCC,LATF,NTRR|B|P5,3,3|0

More here:
http://marijuanastocks.com/content/list-marijuana-stocks
http://money.msn.com/investing/14-cannabis-stocks-to-watch-in-2014-1

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Raring for Rare Earths

I tried to buy Rare Earth stocks (my old fetish) about a year ago, but it didn't take. Situation is largely the same: these companies are either a fraud, or a delusion. Nobody talks about them, dedicated forum is all but empty. The only two companies doing something is still MCP and LYSDY, both down about 70% from year ago.

In a life of mining company, this period between exploration and production is called "Valley if Death"... indeed it is. Many blown up or sold, most of remaining will not survive in their present form. I am controlling my eagerness to buy some, but several good looking set-ups are present for at-least a meaningful bounce. Also watching related items in titanium, palladium, lithium and antimony.
Start here:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?REMX,RTI,TC,REE,TAS,GMO,LYSDY,MCP,PAL,UAMY,uuraf,LIT|B|P5,3,3|0

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Mother Russia 

Come on Vladimir Vladimirovich, the World is watching...
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$RTSI,RSX,CTCM,MBT,MTL,QIWI,VIP,YNDX,OGZPY,SBRCY,NILSY,LUKOY|B|P5,3,3|0

========================================================

--------------------Watch List----------------------
I trade only my own watch list... exceptions are futile

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MHFI,GEO,CXW,DVA,LO,WDC,IMAX,CHKP,XON,GS,CG,tsla|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,MOO,MON,ADM,POT,MOS,HRL,TSCO,LNN,CRESY,SQM|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XHB,LEN,DHI,PHM,TOL,WY,PCL,RYN,PCH,EXP,TXI,mlm|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?URA,CCJ,DNN,URZ,UEC,URG,UUUU,URPTF,CVV,GTI,ENTG,fcsmf|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TK,GLNG,SSW,SFL,CMRE,DRYS,NM,MATX,VLCCF|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EEM,FXI,PGJ,HAO,RSX,AFK,FM,VNM,TUR,IFN,TTF,idx|B|P5,3,3|0
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,RSP,PRF,XOM,GE,WFC,MSFT,CVX,JPM,googl,brk/b|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?tan,scty,fslr,enph,spwr,slx,kol,x,aks,mtl,mt,crs|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AMLP,XLU,FIUIX,IYR,REM,PSP,LYSDY,HEMP,MJNA,MDBX,CBIS,GWPH|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,CEF,GDX,SIL,PPP,AG,RGLD,FNV,SPPP,COPX,SCCO,FCX|B|P5,3,3|0

These where hit very hard during March-April sell off. 3D and pawn-shops are of interest to me.
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DDD,SSYS,ONVO,EZPW,FCFS,CSH,YELP,FEYE,SPLK,WDAY,CACQ,MPEL|B|P5,3,3|0

More here: http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2014/04/digging.html
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Digging

If you find yourself in a hole the first thing to do is stop digging...

My hole isn't really that big. I've been in much deeper holes, came out ahead and advanced. I'll just keep on digging a little while longer, feeling around for different directions, adjustments, improvements. It takes me almost 2 months to find my bearings here. In isolation. With colossal constructions next door for a first 3 weeks. With massive roof leak (now completely fixed), and most miserable winter I've seen in 20 years. With constantly breaking old car, finally giving up in a middle of highway, in a dark, with kids in a back (I love my new Elantra 30mpg). With me unleashing a short-term ES trading system, and seeing it clown-rape my account. Surprise tax bill. And no cash. I am ready for summer.

This business is trying and taxing, and wears out its participants to ashes. The ones who remain standing and sensibly functioning will make it out. Everybody else are blowing up in massive swings. I reviewed many familiar blogs and forums. Places are incredibly busy, everybody are bearish as shit. Almost like good old days of financial crisis. Except indexes are few percent from all time highs, and most of my stocks are ok, with little damage. We can chop like this for a while.

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This poor soul lost 195K in 10 days, from January 31 to February 17 this year. I believe its completely true, I believe its a very common experience by now across investment landscape. This is exactly how clean up happens, and by the looks of it, its not over. I know, I've been there... '2010 Disaster'...
http://trainwrecktrader.wordpress.com/

 "Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment", said the same Old Cowboy.

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Earnings season is here.
If I had any short term swing positions, I would drop them before earnings. I have none.
This is BCM, I want to keep every single one of them thru earnings, unless sudden collapse, crush or snow. How else do I realize long-term gains? Expectations adjustment (both ways) happens most often on earnings release.
LO is first on 4/24.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?LO,WDC,GEO,CCJ,FXI,GDX,VNM,CHKP,FSLR|B|P5,3,3

As for new positions, I am extremely risk averse, would rather not buy anything before earnings, or at least see how related  stocks react to announcements.
The strongest sectors seems to be Energy, Staples and Utilities.
The most damaged are Health Care (thru biotech, no doubt) and Cyclicals(?);
Financials looks ominous.
Solar activity is moderate, but with unusually many geomag storms. Lunar eclipse, followed by solar eclipse on 4/28, with Cardinal Cross in between (some kind of unusual planet alignment thingamabob). Passover and Easter are together this year. I got my tin hat on...
Time to plant the garden and sow the seeds...he-he

----------------------------------------------------
This is Arnott Overlay (AO).
Based on strategy cross-selection, these are the best stocks ever. I want to own them in System9, but technical's are discouraging for all. Looking for entry.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,RSP,PRF,XOM,GE,WFC,MSFT,JPM|B|P5,3,3
----------------------------------------------------

There is a clever  Eddy Elfenbein of CrossingWallStreet, proclaimed a 'best buy-and-hold blogger', with his Buy List. A collection of 20 stocks, set in a beginning of the year. He mentioned that not all should be held continuously. This fits with my efforts to trade opportunistically the very best, sound businesses. This gig is hard enough, I need all the tilt I can get. Still I give only limited weight to fundamental factors - this is a game of speculation, not accounting.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/
Eddy Elfenbein Buy List (EEBL) with equal continuous allocation (like index...he-he) beat S&P500 every year since 2006. I like his picks, good mix. Some familiar faces - IBM, MSFT, WFC from S12BCM, notable is ORCL here again (fresh one in SD from last month).
Well done, Eddy! Thanks
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SPX,IWM,VTV,VUG,AFL,BBBY,CA,CTSH,BCR,DTV,EBAY,ESRX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FISV,F,IBM,MCD,MDT,MSFT,MOG/A,ORCL,QCOM,ROST,SYK,WFC|B|P5,3,3

After removing what I already have, these seems the best now, but I am just watching how they all react to earnings:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AFL,CA,CTSH,DTV,EBAY,ESRX,F,MCD,QCOM,ROST|B|P5,3,3
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While on a subject of 'buy-n-hold' and fundamental analysis,  how can I forget Old Man Buffet. Here is his top 2 dozen as of end 2013, from WFC 20% to MTB at 0.5% of portfolio:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?WFC,KO,AXP,IBM,PG,XOM,WMT,USB,DTV,DVA,GS,PSX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MCO,GM,GHC,USG,BK,CBI,COP,LMCA,NOV,VIA,VRSN,MTB|B|P5,3,3
Notable that BAC is not here, but actually its his 5th largest position (thru warrants and shit...).

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Emerging Markets are going apeshit to upside, against a backdrop of extremely negative news. Action is really all over the world - Asia-Pacific (GMF), Africa and ME (GAF), Latin America (GML) in a big way. All this is not really visible in EEM, maybe due to China, and especially Russia. I've been shuffling some etf's around, here is more:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EEM,GAF,GML,GMF,AFK,FXI,PGJ,VNM,TUR,RSX,IFN,EWZ|B|P5,3,3
GAF, GML, GMF are really non-tradable, but here is more...dip would be nice:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?fm,ews,idx,eww,eza|B|P5,3,3

Mother Russia is up to no good. Sentiment is extremely negative. Even russian analysts bear-shitting all over their markets for next 2 weeks. Ivan's got it all figured out, they know every move over coming days.
Will Влади́мир Влади́мирович deliver?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$RTSI,RSX,CTCM,MBT,MTL,QIWI,VIP,YNDX,OGZPY,SBRCY,NILSY|B|P5,3,3
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 These where found in a different way. Instead of working from theme to chart, or relying on somebody's fundamental research,  I made several scans in Finviz based on certain fundamental and technical criteria.
2 weeks ago, as I ordered myself to Charlie Mike (link), I came up with this:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?WDC,XEC,GD,RTN,XLNX,DIS,VLO,INTU,UNP,LLY,PSX,MXIM|B|P14,3,3
The only entry I took is WDC, but almost all are still ok. Notable here is PSX - one of RAFI top stocks.
I am still tuning this thing, its coming up with some familiar names, oils, HUM, ALL and BWA - auto part factory in Michigan with 20K! employees.

Methinks, I dug up enough for now...

The Map is Not the Territory

Following is from Wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Map%E2%80%93territory_relation:

Alfred Korzybski remarked that "the map is not the territory", encapsulating his view that an abstraction derived from something, or a reaction to it, is not the thing itself. Korzybski held that many people do confuse maps with territories, that is, confuse models of reality with reality itself. ...  individual people in fact do not in general have access to absolute knowledge of reality, but in fact only have access to a set of beliefs they have built up over time, about reality.

This is a very eloquent depiction of the reason why I stopped forecasting index trends.

Forecasting of market trends is a bad approach any way you slice it. It makes one to have an opinion, a bias, that has to be expressed  in terms of long or short position. Every next bar brings new information, supporting prediction or not, until some time in a future trader can look back and realize whether his forecast was right or wrong originally. I've been working this way for years, and this is the best explanation why my index trades have never been a steady source of profits. Quite the opposite.

This tuition, paid to "S&P500 Futures University", was not wasted (hopefully) and resulted in System11 - a simple and robust approach to short term index trading. On the other extreme end is System1 - a long term stock/bond index system, that never had a losing year, but also sidestepped most of 2013. System1 was designed in a way to avoid major bear market (and it did), but relies heavily on my own opinion and vague concept of "Enough", which needs to be discarded. I am in a process of modifying System1 rules. It will take awhile, as long term system testing takes a long time (no shit).

Financial speculation is a process of making an aggressive monetary bet, based on incomplete information, for uncertain period of time. The Technical Analysis of price chart can't tell the future. It could tell  where we have been, where we are now, and what may happen next (based on interpretation of conditional probability). Never 100%, not even close. 50/50 is the best I can wish for, yet it still requires forecasting, albeit to a lesser degree. A "SET-UP" is what investment community came up with, to fool themselves into thinking that they don't have a bias. A certain quantifiable set of conditions, that lead to recognizable outcome most of the time. Isn't this an 'opinion' again? What is it based upon? Squiggly-wiggly lines on price/time plot of some financial scam?
Give me a fucking break...

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 "The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios. The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market." [Soros]
 http://socialleverage50.com/2013/09/22/stanley-druckenmiller-greatest-moneymaking-machine-history/
---------------------------------------------

Shopping list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?sea,kex,tk,nm,nmm,cmre,dsx,sb,dba,bal,nib,mon|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FSPHX,IBB,DVA,MHFI,BX,GEO,SCCO,DOW,CVV,FCSMF,adsk,ddd|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xhb,itb,iyr,socl,yelp,angi,cmcsa,twc,ebay,|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,tur,fxi,pgj,hao,rsx,afk,nge|B|P5,3,3

--------------------------------------------
Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HEMP,PHOT,MJNA,MDBX,AG,CEF,FNV,GDX,PPP,RGLD,SLV,SPPP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CVV,MHFI,GEO,JJC,JJG,LNN,NM,SCCO,TK,TUR,VNM,FXI|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AMLP,XLU,FIUIX,LYSDY,NIB,BAL,TAN,SCTY,ccj|B|P5,3,3
UPDATE 2/14/2014
As soon as finished taking stops on many common stocks, I saw many new set-ups. With broad rally accommodating, I am now 70%+ invested and want more on some kind of reaction.
1800SPX has to hold for few days. then we will see...
-----------------------------------------------

As i was writing this musing, I realized that there is a philosophical problem with what I do, and got stuck. So I published it at Molecool's site, hoping that some replies will get me 'unstuck'. Below are some excerpts of  discussion we had here: http://evilspeculator.com/?p=40387#disqus_thread

Europe

Europe - the Old World.  All the talk on Tee-Vee and on Internets has been about some kind of crisis in Europe for years and years. Nobody seems to mention that actually Europe as a whole IS the biggest economy in the World. Add England or not makes no difference.

The amount and quality of pure science and innovation from EU, GB and also Russia is just staggering. From life changing projects like Large Hadron Collider to life-saving endeavors like SynBio and HSCI , Europe is moving ahead regardless of what politicians and bankers do.
This Biotechnology Boom we are enjoying here is States over past couple of years is ALL based on science that came out of Germany and Russia since 2011. Innovation is the process of converting inventions into invoices, but new scientific discovery is necessary first. Old World governments are heavily invested  in science, and kept commitments even thru financial crisis.

I was thinking long and hard about politics and economics of  European region. There is alot going on - good and bad, but while it all makes for a great cocktail-hour conversation, I don't find this way of thinking productive, pertaining to investing in Europe.

Biggest European ETF's :
VGK has lowest expense ratio 0.12%, followed by  FEZ 0.29%, others are 0.5 to 0.7 (GREK)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?VGK,FEZ,IEV,EZU,EWG,EWU,EWL,EWI,EWQ,EWD,EWP,grek|B|P5,3,3
Emerging Europe, Russia and some others
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ESR,GUR,RSX,RBL,ERUS,RUSS,TUR,EPOL,EWN,NORW,GXF,EWO|B|P5,3,3

Looking at these charts today, I don't see anything good to buy.
Actually, it seems that Europe is fucked (again).
Sigh...

Africa

Africa - the next Frontier.
Presently everything there is in bear market. Egypt (EGPT) rallied 20% in 5 days on military coup.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EEM,AFK,NGE,EZA,EGPT,GULF,MES,GAF,EEME,FM,FRN,PMNA|B|P5,3,3
GULF and  MES concentrated in Kuwait, UAE and Qatar with different allocation
GAF is Africa+Middle East
EEME is SA+Russia
The only way to get into Mali is AFK.
All these have very high exp ratio.
Welcome addition is Nigeria NGE. If i could invest in their bonds at 15% - that would be nice.

 AFK country breakdown:

Nigeria	24.84%
South Africa	24.68%
United Kingdom	17.40%
Egypt	14.33%
Morocco	9.87%
Canada	4.00%
Norway	2.56%
Kenya	1.30%
Australia	1.12%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmJBCMPtiNE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcKDXdgYe9I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XV6ow-NO0nw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmic5Ai5EZk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7V5ubZSJFo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k51npBxKH2g

Following from Wikipedia:

Sub-Saharan Africa is, geographically, the area of the continent of Africa that lies south of the Sahara. Politically, it consists of all African countries that are fully or partially located south of the Sahara (excluding Sudan).^[2] It contrasts with North Africa, which is considered a part of the Arab world. Somalia, Djibouti, Comoros and Mauritania are geographically part of Sub-Saharan Africa, but also part of the Arab world.^[3][4]
The Sahel is the transitional zone between the Sahara and the tropical savanna (the Sudan region) and forest-savanna mosaic to the south.

........................AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT........................

 UN Human Development Index (HDI) for 2004, derived from 2006 UN HDI report. An HDI below 0.5 is considered to represent low development and an HDI 0.8 or more is considered to represent high development.

For an exact list of countries by their HDI, see the List of countries by Human Development Index

0.950 and over    0.900-0.949    0.850-0.899    0.800-0.849     0.750-0.799

0.700-0.749    0.650-0.699    0.600-0.649    0.550-0.599    0.500-0.549

0.450-0.499    0.400-0.449    0.350-0.399    0.300-0.349    under 0.300    n/a

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CHINA in AFRICA
100bil in investments. Are Chinese taking over Africa without a single shot fired, or is it the best example of hard-core capitalism. IMHO there is nothing wrong with either scenario.
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/453060

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UPDATE 10/23/2013
AFRICAN OIL  - Nigeria here again
http://www.zerohedge.com  /news/2013-10-23/guest-post-scramble-africas-oil

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UPDATE 1/2/2014
More investment ideas, Ghana, African mutual funds and more:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/getting-into-west-africas-frontier-market-2013-12-20

All industry groops and foreign markets were taken out and shot.

Be careful what you wish for.
I wanted a correction, now I have a sea of red.

SPX is down 23pts. Review of sectors, gold and silver, international markets.
My ES day-trade gone wrong.
Whats up with China? Why is it not in any of my lists? Hmm...