System 12 and more

 BOT:
7/24  - COW 26.97 Half pos size. Livestock etn to continue agricultural theme (which is currently is atleast in doubt). After a triple-bottom in spring it break-out over 26.50 and 50dma. Buying half on first reaction, to see if it can hold 50dma and go over declining 200dma.
8/8 - PPP 4.73 Adding new position to Gold Miners portfolio. Good relative strength. 1/4 pos size.
8/9 - RGLD 54.78 Adding half pos, now i have a full pos on.
8/9 - TWM 15.45 Double short Russell2000 (IWM)
8/13 - YELP 51.70 Incredibly strong mo-mo chart. There is something going on. Tight stop.
After stop out on 8/15 at 48.02, I re-entered on 8/21 at 50.24
8/19 - SSYS 102.10 Half pos. Starting one more 3D printer company on first reaction after 52week high. Really not a good entry point.
8/20 - TSCO 120.27. Re-entering trade after stop-out at lows on 8/15. Now I have to chase, and I still can't make up my mind if its a strong stock or not. Its one of last remnants of agricultural theme, currently very much in doubt.
8/21 - KEX 84.44 Biggest shipper of all in strong uptrend. Buying dip. If fails there are few levels of support to re-enter in 75-80 area. UPDATE: Stop out on 8/30 at 81.22.
8/23 - UCO 36.97 Long oil. Price pattern only, I don't care about Syria. PFTargets for WTIC 114, 128-129
8/23 - GDX 30.30 Buying another half pos size
8/28 - SRS 23.35 Shorting Real Estate, IYR is proxy.

 SLD:
7/26 - TBT 74.58 Selling last half position bought on 5/17 for 12+% gain. Now I have a 1 full pos, bought on 7/10.
8/1 - CCJ 19.72 on stop.  Looking to pick a bottom of that 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom box.
On 8/8 I re-entered at 19.63, thinking that i got shaken out for no reason at-all, but was stopped out again on 8/19 at 19.49 for a small loss.
8/13 - FB 37.12. Take profit on half pos.
8/14 - SCTY 36.23. After ER on 8/5 this is completely fell apart, even with solars (via TAN) strong. Close this half position (bought on 6/28) for 5% loss. SCTY made me alot of money this year, let it cool a bit.
8/15 - TSCO 116.97 Stop out at the lows. Will re-enter.
8/15 - TK 38.04 Weak shipper. Taking 5% loss.
8/20 - VNM 18.23 Exit this half pos size trade at almost 7% loss. Emerging markets are bust.
8/20 - TWM 16.12 Exit position bought on 8/9 for small (less than 5%) gain. Shorting R2K is hard.
8/23 - TBT 80.40 Exit full pos for 5% gain. Looking for re-entry.
8/23 - SDS 37.78 Exit position from 5/16 for 3% loss, although SPX is at almost same level. Thats leveraged etf decay, plus I am shorting the Bull Market.
8/28 - NM 6.24 Half size out. Taking profits on rip. PFT 7 and 7.50 remains.
8/28 - EWJ 11.11. Small loss. I am confused about Japan, yen, and difference between $NIKK and EWJ.
8/29 - UCO 38.73 Taking quick 4% profit on oil. Looking for re-entry.

Dividends:
7/25 - FNV
7/31 - TK
8/29 - FNV

Positions  and watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,NIB,JJG,SDS,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,DDD,SSYS,FB,YELP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,PPP,NM,TBT,VNM,AMLP,COW|B|P5,3,3

System 12 Update

Earnings season is over and it did alot of damage. Many Mega Dozen (MD) and SD stocks are under 50/200 day MA's and I am looking  to buy if/when they recover. Failure here would be catastrophic for markets worldwide!

This is MD as of 8/16/2013.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,xom,GOOG,BRK/B,MSFT,JNJ,GE,WMT,CVX,WFC,PG,chl|B|P5,3,3
Of note - AAPL took top spot  for first time since mid-2012. RDS is replaced by CHL, they are very close together, but RDS is recently disqualified.  XOM took a hit under 200 and 50ma.
XOM, GOOG, MSFT, WMT, CVX, RDS are all under 50dma, and BRK is right on it.

This is SD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?rds/b,ptr,hbc,tm,ibm,jpm,pfe,t,bhp,nvs,ko,bbl|B|P5,3,3
RDS, PTR, IBM, T, BHP are disqualified.  JPM, PFE, HBC, NVS, KO are under or at 50dma.  BBL and BHP is the same company, with BBL just a bit over 200dma. Second Dozen is basically poop.

MD+ 8/16/2013

BTFT positions: (3 available slots)
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?BRK/B,CVX,GE,GOOG,JNJ,PFE,TM,wfc,xom|B|P5,3,3
XOM, GOOG, CVX  - liquidate or by-pass. These from MD.

Available - AAPL, PG, CHL, HBC(from SD)

S12T has XOM (blown all stops and out of PP) and WFC. Looking to add all available and also BRK, GE, JNJ.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,PG,CHL,HBC,BRK/B,GE,JNJ|B|P5,3,3

Internals Study

I am attempting (again) to organize a wide array of market internal indicators I use. The problem is - i have them set-up differently at home, at work and at house-by-the-lake. I still refuse to sigh-up for any subscription, including one to Stockcharts-dot-com, where I would be able to keep them set in their Public Lists. So i need to make them compact, and get rid of weak ones.

Here is another problem: T-Theory Volume Oscillator (18,36MACD of $NYUD) is very confusing to me, especially so when using for T's.  I thought its a dead end, but then realized that Im looking at "nested T" - small Volume Oscillator T with center-post at February 25th dip. VO T 2/2013 is about to ran out. Also on same chart: T 11/2012 is the same as BergamotT, but unlike NYMO, Volume Oscillator had a high in mid June and T projected right into Tax-day (give or take a day or two). Green "Irregulat T 4/2013" is missing secondary cash build-up phase and i don't know what to make of it.

This is all fine with benefit of hindsight, and seems to support endless rotation in sectors of S&P. This rotation is increasingly hard to predict and makes for very unhealthy environment, as evident by Confidence Indicator (FAGIX:VUSTX below) still diverging from S&P. This non-confirmation is already big enough, but can get bigger. Golden Indicator also diverging, but this configuration is very unreliable and I decided to ignore it for few weeks/months.

Two studies below deal with Advance/Decline analysis.
        McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) is basically 19,39 MACD of  Net Advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues on NYSE. I don't know what to make of it at this time, except that its pushing upper BBand, but at relatively low level. Percent of S&P stocks below 50MA shows a well pronounced divergence, as more and more stocks cannot get above their 50day MA. I wasn't watching Utilities, Staples and Healthcare that rallied strongly over past few months, and my watch-lists show disproportionate share of stocks that broke below 50MA and even already in their own bear market. Bullish Percent Index is similar, normally it lags by a month or two.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

         My Nasdaq A/D Indicator deals with Net Advances in more straightforward way. Its simply 5day EMA and 20day MA of $NAAD. Shaded area are periods when 20day MA is below 0, during which IWM is weak, and its coming back above 0 right now. Also significant lows where made on lower readings of 20dma than most recent in April. Divergence is visible since beginning of the year, and lately it also shows up in weakness of Nasdaq New High / New Low since March.

So I'm asking myself: Whats the bottom line? Really don't know, with so many negative divergences and internal weakness in SPX, Nasdaq, IWM etc, still market is not breaking down. In fact NYMO and My Naz A/D Indicator (MNA/DI) have room to upside and can support a 5-10% rally on major averages from here and last into end of May (if Irregular T 4/2013 works out). 

---------------------------UPDATE-------------------------

Following this post, Market rallied 6-7% and peaked on May 22.

Pretty good analisys....ha-ha

----------------------------------------------------------------

At last here are two charts I watch intraday. The main version of MNA/DI and VIX. Volatility Index (VIX) looks really strange lately and I give it very little attention.

At close inspection I realized that I use 20 day Exponential MA on MNA/DI and tried to quickly redraw shaded areas in same manner as chart above. I will double check again tonight.

On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.

 Over the next couple of hours I moved  some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
 HAO   - 24.16
 RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn? 
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03  Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO  - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
 2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26  - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what?  VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):

           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing? 

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.
           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.
           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

Detailed Position Review.

I feel a bit giddy and careless, so I must stop and look around. I have less than 10% cash.

SLD:
2/4 - EEM on stop 44.02 (B/E) (Total for EEM in 2013 is B/E)
         Note on EEM: emer mrkts bond where collapsing all January. See PCY, EMB. This bull flag is taking too long on daily, but weekly still looks ok. I think I need to go to individual countries or regions.
2/4 - FB on stop 28.45 (B/E on last half-pos lot) (Total for FB +3.5%)
2/4 - KOL on stop 24.83 (-3%)
2/4 - XHB on stop 28.45 (+8%)
2/4 - now cash is over 20% and I'm not giddy anymore
2/7 - PTR 137 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-85
2/7 - XOM 87.63 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-81 Decided not to wait. PBar to 86.04 - very unusual for this stock.
2/8 - TM 104.28 quick trade exit (+6.5%)

BOT:
2/5 - MON 102.31  Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134
2/5 - GE 22.56 (S12T ;  BTFT)
2/6 - TAN 18.40 Half pos. I sold it on 1/25 here at same price. (Note 2/10 - Damn it, its breaking down again)
2/6 - MOO 55.72 In low volume correction
2/7 - GEO 33.04 for quick trade
2/8 - ZSL 45.75 for quick trade
2/8 - XLE 78.24 on br-out to new high for quick trade
2/8 - HAO 24.69 Half pos
2/8 - EZA 67.75 Little more than half pos

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,JJG,TBT,KOL,SLX,IBB|B|P5,3,3
$CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,scty,tm,ccj,mon|B|P5,3,3
Chemicals and Utilities are 2x positions,
CG, FB, SCTY are half size

CCJ  -   Support 20.50 - 21. ER 2/11amc. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21.  Last PFT 37; now in correction (PFT 26?). All these PFT met.
EEM  - Stop 44.02 set. All out. Now in corr PFT 43. Last PFT 56;  61
FB      - Holding, Stop 28.45 set. All out. Waiting for it to cool-down after earn. In corr to PFT 25.
XLU   -Holding. PFT 38.50;  42;  45.50
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met.  More PFT 508-512.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - still waiting for 20dma. PFT 88 met. More targets 91.50;  95;  104
JJG   - Stop on close under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75. Last PFT 60.30
KOL - May sell today, watching. Sold. Looking to re-enter
SCTY- Higher low may fail. Support 14 - 14.50
SLX  - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72
TBT  - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 66 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
TM   - stop on close under 94.  ER 2/8bmo or was it today? PFT 107; 123; 138
TSLA - Holding. ER 2/11.  SR still 21!  37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50;  52; 61
XHB   - Stop 28.45 set. All out. Last PFT 39

MD - all must be entered by Feb 8, unless exit criteria met. This started S12T.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,PTR,GOOG,BRK/B,GE,IBM,RDS/B,CVX,bhp|B|P5,3,3
BHP is in BTFT and #14, but I took it just the same.
Still need  GE, RDS/B  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)
Update 2/5 - PTR to exit by 2/11; XOM in danger

 BTFT - all entered into OX paper trade on open 1/28/2013. LP as of 1/28.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HBC,BHP,PTR,JNJ,FMX,NVS,ORCL,PFE,TM,GOOG,BRK/B,XOM|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ibm,cvx,ge|B|P5,3,3
GE, RDS/B are not in BTFT and will have to be added within 2PP (by Feb 8)
  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)

New High. 1480 on SPX. SCTY

BOT:
1/17 - SCTY 14.60 half pos
Lyndon, Peter and "ma niga" Elon Musk managed to put together one helluva company.
 No shit, this is actual picture from their website, and it gives me real pleasure to see young faces of their management team. I am a pretty good  face reader, and I am smiling looking at these boys and girls.
 http://www.solarcity.com/
No indicators, no support/resistance, no earnings, no price history.
Buying half
We had a spirited discussion about that here (link) :

itslance

           Thanks for the heads up, but have you seen their financials for the last two quarters?  Plus solar companies have been going out of business like hotcakes lately.
 i Bergamot

            You must be reading my mind.
Why do you think I only bought half?
There is one serious point to consider: very soon this will be the biggest private energy producer in USA. Variant perception?
That aside, IPO went out at much lower price than originally planned and as of today 13-13.50 area is a support. This is only price point that matters to me now, we will have more info (technical and fundamental) soon. Think about it, nobody knows a thing, but price keeps going up

Darth_Gerb, Incorrigible Iconoclast - Loyalist Leech

  I'm sorry, but faces & money do not necessarily correlate IMNSHO.
I reply:
         I stand by my opinion, that management of SCTY are young, ambitious, driven young people. In finance it's bad, in service/manufacturing it is a combination that been changing the world thru-out history. Look up Elon Musk and see what he did, and what he set out to do.
Having said that, my stop is below most recent low, until further instructions
Then this:
            Youth and exuberance is no match for age and treachery.
I answer (how do i come up with this shit?):
            Fuck old people
World of the future belongs to young. Young of heart and mind. They don't know what is impossible, they don't know not to charge, they think they will never die... Do that and you will never grow old
(iBergamot grabs oxygen mask)
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Something  unusual happened yesterday: (wrote here):

 Very narrow range on Nazdaq A/D.
Low -582; high -314. Negative all day long, thats no good.
Over past 6 months I only find 2 days with this narrow range. One end of August, one beginning of November. Both happened after a low vol sideways consolidation, both followed by explosive continuation of preceding trend.
Just one more piece of the puzzle

And so today SPX and IWM hit new highs. QQQ and Naz lagging.
I am 75% invested, all long. YTD profit is little over 5%, and this is only 2 weeks of this year.

I really want to reflect, that on October 30, 2012 I wrote here (link):

My research shows a high amount of promising situations. Wide variety of great setups is presented. This type of situation happens couple of times a year at most. In the past, I only made aware of it when it's too late. Now I'm in it as it unfolds, already positioned in best and strongest areas...

Well, it did happened just like I said. Unfortunately I wrote it when I was liquidating my fucking Flagship account, so no, no, I did not benefit from this knowledge. Subsequently and because of massive emotional breakdown, it took me good 2 months to get back on my feet. I promised myself not to dwell on this, and I wont, but this one time I will look back, acknowledge and move on.
    Incidentally, I have a new plan and it's better than old one. May take a couple of years, but it will give me a sizable account to manage, so I can finally do it full time. It will be all mine, no investors, no partners.

ES Head-and-Shoulders, Positions

SLD:
12/14 - IWM 82.47
12/13 - SMH 32.80
12/13 - SLV 31.31
12/13 - SIL 22.96
12/13 - MOO 52.65
12/13 - EEM 43.20
12/13 - FPHAX pharmaceuticals 15.54

BOT:
12/14 - ZSL 44.36 (1.5 x pos) double-short silver, so it's like short 3 x SLV. Originally taken as day trade, but silver is so limp - decided to keep it overnight. Tight stop.

 Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,IHI,SRS,JJG|B|P5,3,3
JJG - 1/2pos.
XLU, $CEX, IHI are for mut funds tracking intraday (FIUIX, FSCHX, FSMEX).

Classic H&S on 3days/30min Dec ESZ12.
I figure 1424es neckline. Min target is 1410ish Dec ES. OpEx is next week.
      Notable that high of the head is Fed announcement. I observed as it was collapsing here (link) on 12/12/12 :

i Bergamot

Don't you love how fed ramp gets reversed every time.
It's like deja-vu or something...

1day ago
1 Like 
 
Contract is rolling, so its not as apparent on continuation chart

Positions, changes

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iwm,EEM,IYR,KRE,MOO,SIL,SLV,SMH,XHB,xrt,cg|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLU,FIUIX,PPH,FPHAX,$CEX,FSCHX,IHI,FSMEX|B|P5,3,3
(etf's are not a positions. For tracking intraday only)

BOT:
11/14 - XRT 61.68 bot back at higher price
11/14 - FIUIX added to utilities
11/15 - CG  25.56   -  CARLYLE GROUP. Stop under 25
11/16 - IWM  2x-position  at 76.95, targeting low 80's than will see

i have money for 1 or 2 more. IBB comes to mind. Just like KRE and XRT I was shaken out at lows. May re-buy it today. Not sure.

Had my eyes on Carlyle for years, and especially since ipo. Stop under 25.

 I was pocking around in Finviz, and look
IWM short interest is 97% ! How is it even possible?

 

"Some people say peace is on the way,

But the worst is still to come.."

This shit does plays by the book. Spooky