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Monday, May 20, 2013

Agony of Perma-Bear. Or is it?

This Irregular small VO T 4/2013 will run out in about a week. I sketched it first almost a month ago in this post (link) . There is absolutely nothing beyond that, as far as T Theory goes. Mostly all of internal divergences are gone, and aside from everything being overbought and obnoxiously bullish - there are absolutely no indication of immediate market top.
        I am a Perma Bear. I don't generally trade like this, I've been mostly long or all long for years, while trying to pick important market tops along the way. How can one reconcile being long and Bearish on everything at the same time? Would it be better to suspend forecasting and just "trade set-ups"? Rubbish.
        Only people who been not paying attention to recent events, only people who don't care to think, only those why are busy chasing little dot up and down a screen - only those don't understand that financial markets are a total fucking scam. The only people who realize what is hidden behind a curtain are those who made money in markets, then lost it, than made it again, over and over until enough experience accumulated, lessons learned and independence earned by virtue of losing money. Call it tuition, call it play money or sacrifice to Market Gods - all the same. The only way to find out what works is to try it, and if it works long enough..., well .... I've been trading basically the same methodology for years, because it makes money on a money. System 9 Lite took it first trades almost 10 years ago, although back then it was System 5, followed by 6 and 7 - all of these are basically the same thing gradually getting  better.
        My generally very Bearish views are based on the facts that things are not what presented on Tee-Vee, in reality (where I live) everything is much-much worse, and not getting improved at all. Quite the opposite. Unless this objective reality will start to reflect some of  excitement of financial markets; or until stocks come into agreement with real downward wealth spiral (worldwide) - I will remain Perma-Bear, hopeful that change will come, but doing what I have to do for now.
         Absolutely THE biggest danger I see is a remote but catastrophic possibility of some kind of internet outage, combined with blackouts, massive hacker attacks and all kinds of problems that have to do with communications. The best investment anybody can make is to put aside enough cash to cover monthly expenses, keep it at home, with your gun, passport and bottled water. Can't say the same about  markets. Stop? How is stop will get triggered if internet is down? Can one expect to be able to get out in front of millions of traders, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, all of whom seemingly have the same risk controls? That is exactly how 1987 and Flash Crash of 2010 happened.
        I sold all of mine long term System 1 positions over a month ago (all except VWINX), because I know that unless I sell when I can, I will be selling what I can, and not on favorable terms. System 1 never had a losing year. System 9 was down over 30% in 2008, and down about 15% in 2011, but always recovered and made new high. My main System 9 Lite account is down 1-2% off its high right now, and I sleep like a baby.

UPDATE 12/22/2013
This documentary came out in September 2013, but I first saw it in December.
It eco's many of mine concerns and views, although I am much less socialistic.
 FOUR HORSEMEN is an award winning independent feature documentary which lifts the lid on how the world really works.


Watch list:
Chinese crap from Fly:  SUTR, XIN, EJ

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