Select Themes Review and Update

There are some Themes that kinda active, but phasing in and out mostly due to unending bear market or lack of correlation. I think Themes need to be reviewed in general at-least once a year to make sure that fundamentals didn't change much, see if big stocks lead or small, see if weightings of stocks in corresponding ETF's where rebalanced, but mainly to update watch lists. If my assumptions about industry or situation are correct, then price action will confirm. Otherwise I would have to deal will long grind and pain of System8... I would rather not... a have much better methods in System9 and System12.

Do nothing which is of no use.       -Miyamoto Musashi, 1645-

Uranium for Sale

And getting cheaper everyday. Every rally was sold to new lows since Fukushima accident in 2011, even thou there are many more nuclear power stations being build all around the World. They can't run base load of a solar panel. Really.

Top ETF is URA from Global X, with 0.7% fee, only 200mil in assets, and down 70% from inception in 2010.
http://www.globalxfunds.com/URA
Top 3 holdings: CCJ, DNN, URPTF (proxy for price of U92) - together almost 50% of fund. It also include several companies not traded in US - Australian Syrah, French Areva, etc.
USU filed for bankruptcy in March. Its happening...!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NLR,URA,CCJ,DNN,URZ,UEC,URG,URRE,UUUU,URPTF,PALAF,FCUUF|D|C20|0

CCJ is the only real company, DNN comes a distant second. UEC (with huge short in it) and UUUU are Mickey's 'sponsors'. The other little ones attracted some inst. buying...lol... What a fucking mess... But correlated, active and with enough volume.
More here: http://investorintel.com/nuclear-energy-stock/
Different view of industry: https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/nuclear-renaissance#/overview

NLR is a tiny (only 75mil) ETF from MarketVectors invested by 70% into utilities known to use nuclear power. Like DUK, NEE, SO, D, PPL etc. I already have them in utility mut fund in System9.
http://www.vaneck.com/market-vectors/equity-etfs/nlr/snapshot/

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Shippers on Deck

I made a Discovery at Sea (post-link) a little over a year ago. Shipping companies made me alot of money, even when I traded them short term. I wish I decided to focus more on dividends and hold them longer, as market happened to accommodate. Industry dynamics didn't change much over this year, top 20 are almost the same and look much better than smaller stocks.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TK,GLNG,TGP,TOO,SSW,GMLP,GLOG,SFL,CMRE|C|C20|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NVGS,DRYS,NMM,CPLP,MATX,NM,DSX,NAT,SB,DLNG,dac,vlccf|C|C20|0

SEA is a small (120mil) illiquid ETF with 0.7% exp ratio. Largest holding, at maximum allowed allocation of 20%, is Maersk. There is no other way to invest in it from US I'm aware of.
http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/sea
Considering how well correlated top of list is, I will exit SEA from BCM account (on either a close stop or next rip) , wait an obligatory month (damn wash), and begin taking shippers. System9 will keep SEA until multiple sell signals accumulate.
These are not my smoothest moves... he-he

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Pot(ty) Training

Marijuana Theme quickly turned into pump-n-dump. So many new penny stocks where listed here and in Canada, and promptly proceeded down by 50-90%.
I am well trained to work thru this shit.  Gold stocks now, Rare Earths before, Home Builders awhile ago - I've seen this movie more than once. Selling most of pot stocks on last rip was a wise decision, and not a hard one to make at 500-1000% profit. Really, hundreds into thousands... nicccce
Now picture is muddy, but I still think we will know more after elections. Its not over.
Looking to reload with tiny size positions...lol
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,GRNH,GWPH,CANN,canv|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FSPM,MCIG,NVLX,VAPE,ATTBF,EXMT,GWPRF,HSCC,LATF,NTRR|B|P5,3,3|0

More here:
http://marijuanastocks.com/content/list-marijuana-stocks
http://money.msn.com/investing/14-cannabis-stocks-to-watch-in-2014-1

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Raring for Rare Earths

I tried to buy Rare Earth stocks (my old fetish) about a year ago, but it didn't take. Situation is largely the same: these companies are either a fraud, or a delusion. Nobody talks about them, dedicated forum is all but empty. The only two companies doing something is still MCP and LYSDY, both down about 70% from year ago.

In a life of mining company, this period between exploration and production is called "Valley if Death"... indeed it is. Many blown up or sold, most of remaining will not survive in their present form. I am controlling my eagerness to buy some, but several good looking set-ups are present for at-least a meaningful bounce. Also watching related items in titanium, palladium, lithium and antimony.
Start here:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?REMX,RTI,TC,REE,TAS,GMO,LYSDY,MCP,PAL,UAMY,uuraf,LIT|B|P5,3,3|0

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Mother Russia 

Come on Vladimir Vladimirovich, the World is watching...
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$RTSI,RSX,CTCM,MBT,MTL,QIWI,VIP,YNDX,OGZPY,SBRCY,NILSY,LUKOY|B|P5,3,3|0

========================================================

--------------------Watch List----------------------
I trade only my own watch list... exceptions are futile

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MHFI,GEO,CXW,DVA,LO,WDC,IMAX,CHKP,XON,GS,CG,tsla|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,MOO,MON,ADM,POT,MOS,HRL,TSCO,LNN,CRESY,SQM|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XHB,LEN,DHI,PHM,TOL,WY,PCL,RYN,PCH,EXP,TXI,mlm|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?URA,CCJ,DNN,URZ,UEC,URG,UUUU,URPTF,CVV,GTI,ENTG,fcsmf|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TK,GLNG,SSW,SFL,CMRE,DRYS,NM,MATX,VLCCF|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EEM,FXI,PGJ,HAO,RSX,AFK,FM,VNM,TUR,IFN,TTF,idx|B|P5,3,3|0
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,RSP,PRF,XOM,GE,WFC,MSFT,CVX,JPM,googl,brk/b|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?tan,scty,fslr,enph,spwr,slx,kol,x,aks,mtl,mt,crs|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AMLP,XLU,FIUIX,IYR,REM,PSP,LYSDY,HEMP,MJNA,MDBX,CBIS,GWPH|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,CEF,GDX,SIL,PPP,AG,RGLD,FNV,SPPP,COPX,SCCO,FCX|B|P5,3,3|0

These where hit very hard during March-April sell off. 3D and pawn-shops are of interest to me.
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DDD,SSYS,ONVO,EZPW,FCFS,CSH,YELP,FEYE,SPLK,WDAY,CACQ,MPEL|B|P5,3,3|0

More here: http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2014/04/digging.html
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Positions

Geomagnetic Storm continues for forth day non-stop. Its felt all around.
I received new funds for main account (LB). Now I should have enough money to run System 12 with single unit size, which is half of my standard position size.
I also got a new account (Z) to manage. Its very small, but has dual purpose. About 20% to be invested in Marijuana stocks, with the rest (only 3 full positions size) into dividend and interest producing instruments.

This is one helluva rally since June 24 bottom 1560SPX, up 100 points and getting overbought.
Is this a new structural bull market that will last for 20 years? That's what everybody is talking about.
I still have doubts.

BOT:
7/5 - DDD 46.61 Half pos. Wanted to get it for a long time, but always miss a good entry point. Want more.
7/8 - FB 24.67 Half pos. Its like 5th time I buy it in 25 area.
7/10 - TBT 76.50 1Full pos. Adding to half pos, now I have 1.5 - too much - and it doesn't look good at close.
7/10 - DDD 47.89 Half pos. Adding on a way up.
7/10 - AMPL 18.02 Also in new Z account.
7/12 - TZA 26.19 Half pos of 3x short if IWM. May add more. Looking for 2-3 days down to under 100IWM.
7/19 - NM 5.73 Adding half pos on a way up. Now i have full pos on.

SLD:
7/17 - TZA 25.62 Stop out for small loss - getting run over by bulls. Next time using TWM (2x short Russel2000) for less leverage and uniformity of positions.
7/18 - SRS 19.42 Sold way past any reasonable stop for 8.5% loss.
7/18 - SDS 36.89  Half stop-out.

7/15 - dividends received CCJ, PGH
7/19 - dividends received RGLD

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,NM,TK,TBT,VNM,AMLP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,JJG,SDS,SRS,TZA,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,DDD,FB,SCTY|B|P5,3,3

Positions with cost basis size. (including commissions)
 JJG   1.03    This is my 3rd time going for grains from this post(link) . Since 1/8/2013 I only lost money on it, current position down 5%. I am being stubborn. Watching 48  for support.-- sliced thru it on 7/24, now watching for reaction. We are in or around 3-year lows on grains and all agriculture (via DBA).
BAL  0.55    I first bought Cotton at 56-57 in March, and lost 10% with exit 51.66 on 5/23 here(link). Ultimately support 50 held and 55 was retaken, and weekly chart still looks good. Then I bought Half pos size for 54.58 on 7/3 here(link) to see if I can trade it quicker, but maybe I not going to have to. Being right and loosing money... Hmm.... PFTargets on both sides, but longer term still 89

 NM  0.94  ER 8/19.  P/E 4!  P/B 0.49! My main concern was very high volume 10%+ moves since May 20. Makes it impossible to have a close stop, but it held nicely sideways, although with some Volume Profile (VP) deterioration.  PFT (5.40 met); 6.55; 7 and 7.50
TK 0.94   ER 8/5. Bot on 6/17 for 40.11. That was late stage breakout that failed on 2nd day, since then recovered. Possibly trending LVM, with some of the lowest Volatility in Main Account 1.62%W; 1.88%M. Need to go to 42 to confirm. Cluster of upside PFTargets 43; 45.75; 49, followed by 58.50.
Shippers are a strong group that nobody is talking about, even with BDI on a rise. Here is more: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TGP,TOO,TDW,GMLP,CKH,CMRE,STNG,DSX,drys|C|C20

 FNV 1.05  ER 8/7amc
GDX 1.49
RGLD 0.57  ER 8/8bmo
SIL   0.53
SLV  0.97
TRX 0.51  8.7% of float short. SR 19!

AMLP 0.96
CCJ 1.06  ER 8/1bmo. No shorts. On a weekly chart its a box 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom. Good VP. Generally anything north of 16 is ok with me, but for now I see support 21-20.50; my stop 19.75. If hit will look to pick a bottom of that box.
DDD 1.03  ER 7/30bmo.  27% of float short! SR 5.7
FB 0.50 ER 7/24amc.  No shorts.
EWJ 1.02
FSCHX 0.5
SCTY 0.51  ER 8/5.  17% of float short, but SR only 1.8. Price stands at 70% above 200dma and up 350% from 52W low - BEWARE!
TSCO  1.15 ER 7/24amc. I think its a confirmed trending LVM, with 2.09%Weekly and 2.22%Monthly volatility.
VNM  0.52.   If 18 is lost, I have to be out.

SDS    0.92
SRS  1.06  First I shorted Real Estate on 6/19 here(link) and stopped out with small loss. Then I took failed breakout on 7/3 here(link). Then it gaped past my Close stop above 67IYR on 7/11 and I exited only to buy it back next day at exactly same price. Effectively, SRS has 21.21 cost basis and a complete clasterfuck.
TBT  1.57
TZA 0.53

Incidentally, JJG, all gold and short positions would be disqualified under rules of System12 (under 200dma); also VNM, while barely qualified, still would not be available (under 50dma).

Detailed Position Review.

I feel a bit giddy and careless, so I must stop and look around. I have less than 10% cash.

SLD:
2/4 - EEM on stop 44.02 (B/E) (Total for EEM in 2013 is B/E)
         Note on EEM: emer mrkts bond where collapsing all January. See PCY, EMB. This bull flag is taking too long on daily, but weekly still looks ok. I think I need to go to individual countries or regions.
2/4 - FB on stop 28.45 (B/E on last half-pos lot) (Total for FB +3.5%)
2/4 - KOL on stop 24.83 (-3%)
2/4 - XHB on stop 28.45 (+8%)
2/4 - now cash is over 20% and I'm not giddy anymore
2/7 - PTR 137 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-85
2/7 - XOM 87.63 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-81 Decided not to wait. PBar to 86.04 - very unusual for this stock.
2/8 - TM 104.28 quick trade exit (+6.5%)

BOT:
2/5 - MON 102.31  Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134
2/5 - GE 22.56 (S12T ;  BTFT)
2/6 - TAN 18.40 Half pos. I sold it on 1/25 here at same price. (Note 2/10 - Damn it, its breaking down again)
2/6 - MOO 55.72 In low volume correction
2/7 - GEO 33.04 for quick trade
2/8 - ZSL 45.75 for quick trade
2/8 - XLE 78.24 on br-out to new high for quick trade
2/8 - HAO 24.69 Half pos
2/8 - EZA 67.75 Little more than half pos

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,JJG,TBT,KOL,SLX,IBB|B|P5,3,3
$CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,scty,tm,ccj,mon|B|P5,3,3
Chemicals and Utilities are 2x positions,
CG, FB, SCTY are half size

CCJ  -   Support 20.50 - 21. ER 2/11amc. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21.  Last PFT 37; now in correction (PFT 26?). All these PFT met.
EEM  - Stop 44.02 set. All out. Now in corr PFT 43. Last PFT 56;  61
FB      - Holding, Stop 28.45 set. All out. Waiting for it to cool-down after earn. In corr to PFT 25.
XLU   -Holding. PFT 38.50;  42;  45.50
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met.  More PFT 508-512.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - still waiting for 20dma. PFT 88 met. More targets 91.50;  95;  104
JJG   - Stop on close under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75. Last PFT 60.30
KOL - May sell today, watching. Sold. Looking to re-enter
SCTY- Higher low may fail. Support 14 - 14.50
SLX  - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72
TBT  - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 66 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
TM   - stop on close under 94.  ER 2/8bmo or was it today? PFT 107; 123; 138
TSLA - Holding. ER 2/11.  SR still 21!  37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50;  52; 61
XHB   - Stop 28.45 set. All out. Last PFT 39

MD - all must be entered by Feb 8, unless exit criteria met. This started S12T.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,PTR,GOOG,BRK/B,GE,IBM,RDS/B,CVX,bhp|B|P5,3,3
BHP is in BTFT and #14, but I took it just the same.
Still need  GE, RDS/B  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)
Update 2/5 - PTR to exit by 2/11; XOM in danger

 BTFT - all entered into OX paper trade on open 1/28/2013. LP as of 1/28.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HBC,BHP,PTR,JNJ,FMX,NVS,ORCL,PFE,TM,GOOG,BRK/B,XOM|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ibm,cvx,ge|B|P5,3,3
GE, RDS/B are not in BTFT and will have to be added within 2PP (by Feb 8)
  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)

Trading Ideas

Stock market is extended and overbought. There is absolutely no doubt of that. I am not calling a top here and now, nor I have any kind of idea when it will be. One sign of upcoming top is increase in volatility, wider range days, gaps and increased overnight activity. I see none of that.
But, I don't want to start any more aggressive stock positions, at-least for few days. I would rather take some profits.
I have only one concern: is this similar to chart-picture couple weeks before  flush-crush?

So I continue to work on ETF's lists I started in this post (link).
There are surprising results already.
            Incredible break-thru last weekend was my brand new System 12. It is currently right in a middle of 2-week Positioning Period (PP), so no further analysis is needed. It doesn't look like anything qualifies for Emergency Exit (EE). There are still some trades to be entered into Back Test with Forward Test (BTFT) and System 12 Transition (S12T), so it will continue as planned.

       1.  Here is something I may use as early as Monday:
Currency / FX etf's list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?UUP,UUPT,UDN,FXE,EUO,DRR,FXY,YCS,DBV,CEW,FXB,CYB|B|P5,3,3
Of interest to me is UUPT  - 3x Bull Dollar ETF, mainly because its one of only few that actually move more than couple of percent. But more importantly, because everybody written off dollar as been dead, destined for lower levels. I'm not so sure. Dollar really goes up during times of economic expansion.
(Never mind. UUPT is completely illiquid, plus Mole told me to stay away from currency etf,s. Next...)

2. I am working on new restaurant list. Actually new twist on old list

3. A return of "Uranium trade"? Its been too long. Here is Uranium-1 list
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NLR,URA,DNN,CCJ,STHJF,USU,URZ,UEC,urg,urre|B|P5,3,3
I already have CCJ, need to add URA. Everything else is penny stocks! - un-fucking-real
New Uranium spot price link http://www.mininginvestor.net/uranium-spot-price-chart/?qm_symbol=/UX:NMX&qm_page=45655

4. Grains (via JJG) have finally bottomed, or at-least stopped falling.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?dba,jjg,$soyb,$corn,$wheat|B|P5,3,3
Meanwhile MOO (Agribusiness etf) pushing 3yr highs. MOO is a little tricky to trade and doesn't move fast, maybe better to go with POT, MON, MOS ets
Got MON - clear leader. POT lags. Need more options - equipment etc..
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?moo,MON,POT,MOS,SQM,LNN,BG,VMI,AGU,RNF,AVD,IPI|B|P5,3,3

5. 2/5/13 7am
Market may be setting up for System 10. It's been too long! Without futures I will have to go with SSO or UPRO or something else. Careful, without margin I have to be really careful.
Patience. It didn't kick in today. Wait

6. Watch list
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,GEO,IGE,TAN,SCTY,DRYS,UGA,ORB,GSVC,DDD,moo,rgr|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SEA,NIB,XLK,XLF,xle,oih,ige,YELP,soda,hyg,pcy,eem|B|P5,3,3

7. Since I'm having such trouble dealing with EEM, here is China++
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$ssec,aaxj,FXI,GXC,MCHI,CHIQ,HAO,PGJ,eza,epol,ephe,vnm|B|P5,3,3
Been watching VNM - just keep getting away from me. EPHE(Philippines) is too extended.
Need to see how CHIQ and HAO trades.