Santa X-mas Massacre

SLD:
12/21 - FSMEX 28.03 (Med equipment) Received dividend and closed. This industry is a disappointment. Nothing really happened, and although I made some profit, time to go.
12/20 - JJG on-stop 52.76 (see below what I posted about this)
12/20 -  ZSL half of half @ 51.70. Keeping less than 1x pos short silver. It's a runner.
12/18 - ZSL half @ 46.33. Locking in some profits. Still have equivalent of 1.5 x short silver.

BOT:
12/21 - QID @ 29.95 1pos of double-short QQQ (see below what I posted about this)

12/26/2012
Attention Holiday Shoppers!
Your spending sucks!
Retail at key support. Yea, it looks like such a beautiful inv H&S, but it it fails...
If you like X-mas sales, wait for "Going out of business" sales

 12/21/2012
 Nazdaq A/D has 3rd lowest reading since summer.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but the market just got blown up. What if there will not be a Xmas rally?
        QID is what i bought to short QQQ.
Stop? I don't need no stinkin' stop, but gap fill is all i prepared to lose.

 12/20/2012
 I'm looking at grains knifing lower, busting  BBands. Tried a long via JJG - stopped out, but looking for reentry. I have nothing to short them with (like short etf), but they can really fall big.
"Santa Silver Bullet" is a really nasty one.
But whats most amazing is all this with Dollar falling.

12/17/2012
 AAA said that today will be the last full working day before Xmas. People will start taking off tomorrow. If it is we will see it in lower volumes. How do you roll ES contract without volume?
Santa is all thumbs, covered in coal dust

John Galt

          Just about around this time a year ago something happened. I was writing my journal by hand back then. It was very inefficient and cumbersome.  I was wondering why, why do i need to write it? Some very interesting people in books and on the internets where recommending to keep a journal. I think now I know why. Switching to a blog was a necessity rather than choice. I couldn't bring my journal to work, I needed to have screens, ideas and watch lists just as I have them at home.
        About this time a year ago I was struggling, loosing money and my mind. I need to find that notebook and read what I wrote a year ago. I do know , or I think I do, what I am going to face.
        I grown alot, I changed alot, I learned alot and I am not done. I haven't even begun. Looking at myself as if from the distance, I see this quiet confidence I never had before. Confidence of standing in a forward cabin of 100-miles in hour train. Not afraid, not confused.
        My method, My skills, My road

ES Head-and-Shoulders, Positions

SLD:
12/14 - IWM 82.47
12/13 - SMH 32.80
12/13 - SLV 31.31
12/13 - SIL 22.96
12/13 - MOO 52.65
12/13 - EEM 43.20
12/13 - FPHAX pharmaceuticals 15.54

BOT:
12/14 - ZSL 44.36 (1.5 x pos) double-short silver, so it's like short 3 x SLV. Originally taken as day trade, but silver is so limp - decided to keep it overnight. Tight stop.

 Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,IHI,SRS,JJG|B|P5,3,3
JJG - 1/2pos.
XLU, $CEX, IHI are for mut funds tracking intraday (FIUIX, FSCHX, FSMEX).

Classic H&S on 3days/30min Dec ESZ12.
I figure 1424es neckline. Min target is 1410ish Dec ES. OpEx is next week.
      Notable that high of the head is Fed announcement. I observed as it was collapsing here (link) on 12/12/12 :

i Bergamot

Don't you love how fed ramp gets reversed every time.
It's like deja-vu or something...

1day ago
1 Like 
 
Contract is rolling, so its not as apparent on continuation chart

Silver Bullet

7am.
What? Silver down 3% and all PM  down. Dollar is higher, but just a bit.
No news of any importance overnight (at least I couldn't find any).  I see it dropped big around 8pm est last night. Yesterdays news don't fit (Fed day + continuation of QE).
I am considering to flip and go short via ZSL and DUST

Later in a day:
...Just come back from meeting and booo - stopped out EEM, MOO, SMH, SLV, SIL. Drinking coffee for all , except SLV. He-He.
 Now market can rally hard (Joke)

1st Day above 1425spx. Positions 12/11/2012

BOT:
12/7 - SLV 32.02 (stop 31-31.50)
12/7 - SIL 22.50
Both fell a bit since I sold them at the end of Nov.
12/11 - JJG 55.92 1/2pos (stop 54)
Just as I was buying grain etf, wheat knifed lower by 3%, crashing both BBands in process. All three grains are NOT in uptrend, but show some signs of bottoming. I fully expect to be stopped out today or tomorrow, but will reenter at lower price.
12/11 - SRS 25.02 Still a special case. IYR H&S from this post seems to be busted, but price action is still lousy and XHB is simply falling apart. I can't find any other bear etf to short homies

Positions:  (still keeping cash at about 30%)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,EEM,MOO,SMH,XLU,PPH,$CEX,IHI,slv,sil,SRS,JJG|B|P5,3,3

On Market:
      Some of my positions are blasting thru BBands. It's not a small stuff, but etf's like EEM and SMH. And I see a bunch of others doing same. At this point the only way this trend continues is up and up without pause. Not something we see very often.
Santa may be lost...
      So we barely pushed above 1425SPX, but picture is questionable. Reaction will come at some point, just as it always does, and 1400 is a definitive support.  We will be lucky if it stops at 1400, see PF chart for clarity.
If 1400SPX broken than all this business will become a giant bull trap. We are not as far as it seems.
      Bonds are at bottom of the box on 25day/4hr chart. Daily is in a middle of sloppy range. There may be a trade there. Watching.

Grains go Critical

Grains at a critical spot here.
I can't trade grain futures, but here is all-grain etf  JJG
 http://www.ipathetn.com/us/product/jjg/#/overview
After making a double bottom between Nov 12 and 19, they rally hard and now testing neckline.
Small breakdown and recovery is ok, as long as 54 not taken out.
I must have a full position on above 58. 
If this Double-bottom test fails - there will be another opportunity later at lower price

JJG has:
36.75% - Soybean (was at 40% on 6/30/12)
33.66% - Corn
29.59% - Wheat
Unclear if these are near or far contracts
Correlation to SPX  0.44
Fee 0.75%
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?dba,jjg,$soyb,$corn,$wheat|B|P5,3,3

Wheat and Corn held up the best thru this correction. It's the Soybean that's under-performing JJG.
So, Soy is a key to watch.

Cancel Christmas

SLD:
12/5 -  XHB @ 25.54 re-entry possible
12/4 -  XRT on stop 62.65
12/4 -  KRE @ 27.34 financials are still of interest to me.

BOT:
12/4 - SRS @ 27.34 trying to short IYR (real estate) again. Price-chart only, no personal opinion.

Ho-Ho-Ho
         Over past few days I visited several stores. Department store, clothes seller and jeweler where absolutely empty. Not slow, empty. Walmart is busy, but people buying groceries and necessities at WMT. I haven't been to mall yet.
        This is not the only reason why I sold XRT. Consumer sectors took quite a beating in November. They recovered very well, but now are against the former resistance. With lousy price action over past few days, I was taken out on tight stop.

Consumer
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLY,VCR,FXD,XRT,RTH,IYC,XLP,VDC,IYK,PBJ,wmt|C|P5,3,3
Consumer International
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$DJW,RXI,CHIQ,INCO,BRAQ,KXI,ECON,IPS|B|P5,3,3

Lets see how far this down move will go.  There are no short consumer ETF's. There is no short interest of note. The way I see it - there is nobody out there to cushion the fall.

Positions, Changes, Watch List 12/3/2012

70% invested. All long

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,EEM,KRE,MOO,SMH,XHB,XRT|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,XLU,FIUIX,PPH,FPHAX,$CEX,FSCHX,IHI,FSMEX|B|P5,3,3
(etf's are not a positions. For tracking intraday only)

SOLD:
 11/23 - 1x-pos IWM at 1st target 80.23. Still have a full position on.
11/27 - SIL @ 22.88. No re-entry.
11/27 - CG on stop 24.95. Re-entry possible, just need to close over 25.50.
11/30 - SLV on stop 32.55

IYR is a special case now.
11/28 - Sld on stop 62.45 and desided to reverse.
11/28 - Bot SRS @ 26.61
11/30 - Sld SRS on stop 25.81
These stops may be too close. Looking to short if it breaks down from here

 

Watch List

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IYR,CG,SLV,IBB,XLF,XLB,PHO,XLI,KOL,SLX|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?fxi,hao,ifn,vnm|B|P5,3,3