This thing is going parabolic, full retard to upside.
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I've been looking at this Weekly Nasdaq A/D line for months. Its kinda different from other internal indicators, because it shows a cash build-up phase for all of 2011-2012, with low on Nov 12, 2012 and high on Feb 14, 2011. Projected peak end of July 2014. Reliability of this analysis is questionable, T-Theory had alot of misses lately, it may be unsuitable for run-away bull market conditions.
Of note (and may-be more actionable) is a negative divergence in oscillators between July and October peaks of A/D line. Daily version of Nas A/D Cumulative plot also shows this divergence.
It's been my (non-scientific...lol) observation - this rally sucks.
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| Nasdaq A/D T 11/2012 |
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-17/taleb-blasts-bernanke-greenspan-warns-debt-raises-risk-catastrophe
ForeignAffairs
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Update 11/26/2013
Just to illustrate how illiquid this market has become, here is a 5 minute chart of E-mini S&P contract ESZ13. Overnight markets are notoriously illiquid, as seen 10pm to 2am. Surprisingly similar price action clearly visible during previous day session - between 10am and 2pm, and especially so around after 12pm and again around 1pm.
I have another personal observation. I've been watching ES streaming live chart for years. Its a lively, active contract, and machines loved it. You can still see them working at open and close, when candle starts jumping at incredible rate, bid/ask size fluctuates greatly, and trades come in 1000's of contracts. Other than that, I have not seen bot activity in Months!
I am sure they are still there, executing strategies for arbitrage and working large orders in a way that it doesn't move markets much. I just don't see them the way I used to. Did machines walked away, or did they kill each other off, or may be they just waiting for command? That I don't know. For better or worse, the nature of this market has changed. I don't know what it means to me and my own Systems. That's all.
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