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Thursday, December 5, 2013

The Big Dogs and HorseShit

Things don't fit together any more. Never mind the usual wall-of-worry, markets have gone haywire and its getting worse.

Stocks are at all time highs, volume and participation are very low, there is no public interest (nobody wants to talk to me about stocks).
Gold, Silver and miners are on a death spiral down. That great rally I picked from July to September is all gone. Since then (and especially in November) every bullish signal, every attempt to rally was blown. Its like stocks, only in reverse.  I talked some people into buying coins...they don't talk to me anymore
Gov Bonds are in bear market, that nobody trades, nobody recognizes. I've been telling people to get out of bonds for a couple of years now. Nobody did. Meanwhile rates doubled!
Commodities are in a toilet. All of them (except may-be Cocoa and Rice).

Without a doubt, all this represents an opportunity of lifetime. Literally. Especially commodities.Corn and Copper are not going to zero, not going to bankruptcy, and not going to reverse split either. Oil stands kinda separately , I think people use it as a 'store of money', a last inflation hedge that's working. It's a mistake - a foolish mis-allocation that lasted long enough to become 'a norm'. Oil worth less than 100 (may be alot less), just as surely as Coffee worth more than 100 (may be alot more). Commodity stocks is a different story (I'm working on it).

Housing recovery my ass! We got 47 million people on food stamps (largest ever, growing every year).
 What middle class? Is it a housing recovery? You know, the house - an american dream...
Here is their own fucking data:

This is kind of data I like. Un-massaged. No ratios to GDP, or unemployment, or inflation, or any kind of statistical ratios. GDP is the worst. First of all they restated it going back years (happened couple of years ago). Then it depends, how you calculate GDP. Here is ShadowStats alternative plot. Big difference, its been negative for years. Incidentally, this view corresponds very well to my own business in America since 1991. That drop during 2000-2002 recession, and then recovery somewhat into 2004-2006, exactly as I experienced myself.
My business blow-up at the lows, there was almost no recovery - that industry is still just a remnant of its former self.

Price of retail ground beef 1980-2013. Presented below with no comments. Really

Percentage of working Americans 2000-2013, as civilian employment to population ratio. Again, based on their own fucking data.
Any questions?
(stolen from ZeroHedge)


 All the hoopla about gov. economic statistic is bad enough. Consider alternatives, remember revisions, adjust forecasts...doesn't help. Now even more confusing, but also with mind-boggling numbers. Billions, Trillions. Like its nothing, not even paper - just digits on a screen.

Instagram sold to Facebook for 1 Billion Dollars. 5 people in a room, $100K revenues, no profit.
SnapChat turned down offer for 2 Billion. 2 people in a bungalo. No revenues.
Twiter is a 22Bil market cap company; FaceBook 117Bil
"Hey, Boichik. How much money do you want to make?"
" A Billion, pa"
15 year old kid. Left me speechless.

I see all this as a steaming pile of HORSESHIT!
Every number they spin around is either a guess, or wish, or lie.
Think about it - You can buy entire Long Bond market for about 1.5bil in margin account. I mean ALL of 30-yr bond open interest! This number is the ONLY real number I need to know.
Everything else - just somebody's agenda.
 Charles Biderman of TrimTabs: GDP & BLS Job Numbers Are Worthless Garbage!


In a spirit of System 12, here are THE BIG DOGS
10 mega corporations that control output of almost everything we buy.
Now, this is 'statistics' I can get behind....and may-be run with a Scammers for a bit...

Along these lines here are 6 companies that control 90% of american media, and 4 largest banks:

"It isn't the stuff you don’t know that will kill you – it's the stuff you're sure about but is totally wrong that will do you real harm."                   Mark Twain

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