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Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Positions, Watch List


This is going to be 8th week of non-stop advance.
Forget Tom deMark and his 9's and 13's - that guy is crazy and a fucking idiot.  How i know?  I actually paid money to listen to his blubber years ago, read a book and tested his ideas. Indisputably it's a bullshit, designed to collect fees and confuse muppets. People show his charts on TV, and all are in owe... well even a meteorite strikes a city ones in a hundred years, it doesn't mean we have to live underground, eh.

         Back here, where I run real money:
There may be a problem with oil and entire oil/gas industry. I'm not sure what the problem is, but I see a divergence on daily chart, so starting a short. Half position only for now - all this could be OPEX shenanigans, plus contract is rolling into April.
I think I can control my bearish bias, as I was saying for a while that we are swimming drowning in oil and nat gas, and while natty is historically pretty low already, I really don't understand why oil pushing 100 and not 50. "Peak-oil" my ass - I never bought it for a second. That aside, my stop is above recent high

2/19 - SCO Half pos (Short oil)

2/20 - ZSL Final half. Sold at target. Total profit on this trade +14%.
2/20 - TSCO 101.75 on stop -2%
2/20 - SLX  47.85 on stop -3%
2/20 - SCTY Half out. 19.10  Really 1/4, I only had half pos on
2/20 - MON 98.76    -4%   Apparently there is a trial going on. I need to be more attentive to company specifics, had I know about litigation, I would never bought it. Hindsight 20/20, oops
2/20 - BHP 77.73 (S12T; BTFT)  $-36.29 Emergency Exit (EE)


Need to do this review again, especially from stand point of taking profits;

UPDATE 2/21 Fuck taking profits, run for your life.
But seriously, when I have +1% day followed by -1.4% day it's always bad news.
I already booked about 3% profit this year (closed positions), and I prefer to control my risk, rather than hold-n-hope. Lets see how this correction goes, sell weaklings and allocate capital to strongest areas again.

2/20 was a BAD candle on all major averages, but one day doesn't make it a top. Not yet. In fact on 240min ES chart this looks like repeat of 2/4/13. Buyable dip? It's a bull market, you know...

CCJ  -   Support 20.50 - 21. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21. Only have 1/4pos on - its a runner. Last PFT 37 (met). All these PFT met
FB      - Trailing close stop. If this turn doesn't hold - FB goes to 25, where I will look to buy it again.
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met.  More PFT 508-512.
GEO -   Support 32-33   ER 2/21bmo, call 11am.  CXW fell on its earn., but recovered a bit since.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - New highs without touching 20dma. PFT 88 ; 91.50 met. More targets  95;  104
JJG   - Logical stop is under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75 (met). Possible double bottom?  Last PFT 60.30
MON - Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134. SOLD
MOO -Watching reaction to 50dma
SCO -have a Half pos on. Watching reaction to 50dma (USO)
SCTY- New all time high. Support 16-17.50. Only have 1/4pos on 2/21.
SLX  - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72. SOLD
TAN -18-19 is support, then 50dma. Watching
TBT  - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 67 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
TSLA - Holding.  SR still 21!  37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50;  52; 61
Conference call is a disaster. They shoot rockets into space, but can't get a working phone. Indian CFO is a moron. Down 6% AH.
EZA -liquidate
HAO -2/21 - at support
RSX - Fucking russians - liquidate



Watch list:

Short oil and gas?:
Graphite (looks little iffy, eh)

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