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Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Ci Sara

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes....somebody said.
The reason why I am fixated a bit on this kind of top is because of a treacherous nature of it. How fast a pullback of a strong bull market turns into failure. Look at it - only few days to sell, before "window is the only way out". If you don't have discipline, if you don't have a plan - you don't stand a chance.
OTOH some tops take time to distribute, to chop for months, like 1999-2000, following slow drift down. This will give people some time, although outcome is the same - it will not be so dramatic for participant's psychology.
I believe this is fractal, and observed on multiple time-frames.
  I remember summer 2011, like it was yesterday. 40 down, then another 60 down reversing and painting hammer, then 80 down. I lost it. Terror...
I learned alot about myself then, using these lessons now (I think)

 Just looking at all asset classes (except Dollar) go down together, I had a scary thought:
Can you imagine a bear market like this, with no place to hide, lasting for months and months?
Don't think its impossible

FSCHX(CEX) 2/3pos;   NM, SLV, TRX, SIL, RGLD half-pos

S&P Sectors+

Watch list:

While everything is oversold together on daily time-frame, I remember the same right before 2011 summer crash. Assuming there is a bounce, SPX is sitting right on 100dma and 20wma with bunch of support levels below, but 1610-1620SPX needs to be taken first. How long will it take, will it be enough - remains to be seen, but TTheory Vol Osc and My A/D Indicator made lower lows and both remain in bear market territory, Volume Profile deteriorated as expected, and I have 3ptPF Target of 1470SPX.
Bradley Turn Date is 6/22, full moon 6/23, solar activity is on a rise again.

................................IN THE NEWS.....................

Its like this: economic news are all good or better than good, and seems to indicate continuing growth in USA and not in China. All other news are all negative and there are alot of them. Looks like they dig out every piece of nasty news, even dust off some old ones, so whatever your preference is - there is a negative story to worry about. This all nonsense of-course and I am trying to stay away from madness, besides I don't see anything critically important at the moment. It is customary for a big crisis to present itself after markets collapse somewhat, unfortunately profit opportunities are limited by the time reasons are known.

Ci sara’ - una storia d'amore e un mondo migliore.
Ci sara' - un azzurro piu' intenso e un cielo piu' immenso.
Ci sara' - la tua ombra al mio fianco vestita di bianco.
Ci sara' - anche un modo piu' umano per dirsi ti amo di piu'.

 There will be – a love story and a better world
There will be – sky-blue more intense and a sky more immense
There will be – your shadow by my side dressed in white
There will be – also a world more human for to say I love you the most

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