Literally.
I've been sick on and off for past 3 months. Finally it did me in. Spent few days relaxing, not in bed, but around it. Seeing doctor on Thursday - I give up, need some pills or something.
Markets are tired too, but not sick yet. Soon it will change.
I have been winding down my stock portfolio for the past couple of weeks. Selling every time I see big volume coming in, or even near support being taken out. Trailing my stops up, until they are hit. I see only few good set-ups and mostly ignoring them, except for some special cases.
I am not calling a top here and now, although it may be close. Mainly I am tired. I have been slugging for months, all while being sick and it catches up with me. I know that I can't go non-stop. I will start making mistakes, then I will try to "press" in order to make up for losses, then I will turn significant profit into an unnecessary draw-down.
It doesn't mean I am stopping operations all-together. Not at all. I just laying off stocks in general, taking intensity of trading way down and not trying to be 100% in.
BOT:
3/4 - BAL 53.54 Half position Cotton
3/5 - SLV 28.03 Half pos
3/5 - SCTY 18.45 1/4pos
3/5 - MGAM 19.06 Half pos
3/5 - FB 28.07 Half pos
3/6 - SIL 17.71 Half pos Silver Miners
3/12 - QID 26.41 This is not a hedge, but a directional trade. No stop for now, but watching 69qqq area. Almost all breakouts failed on QQQ over past 3 months. may not work this week as Quad Witching week is very bullish thru Friday
3/13 - XHB 29.51 If something goes up, it must be homies... Or is it over too? Stop under 29.25
SLD:
3/7 - SCTY 16.42 All out. Earnings sucks. So why did it go up all this time?
3/7 - FSCHX 125.60 Sold 1/3 size. Continue to reduce.
3/8 - GEO 35.79 Quick trade out.
3/11 - MGAM 19.65. All out. Continuing on-line poker research. This company doesn't really fit into what I think will happen. Seems that casinos themselves are setup the best for internet gaming. They will hire somebody inhouse or go to big development company to set up a "System".
3/12 - TSCO 102.98 Its still going sideways, but I see alot of selling intraday and in 104-105 top range. Will consider re-entry above resistance.
3/12 - SCO 39.34 Stoped out on overnight gap. I wrote on many occasions about gap-risk, and here it is - taking away large portion of my gains. Re-entry possible.
3/12 - FB 27.66 50dma and 29ish level proving to be too much of resistance. Watching
3/13 - IBB 155.56 All out. Enough for now
3/13 - TAN 17.70 Closed day below 2 previous lows on daily chart (17.50 level). This may be H&S top, with possible target of 13-14. There is not much support there. I'm afraid I will have to look for individual stocks, cus Solar Industry is in trouble as a whole
Positions
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,CCJ,JJG,BAL,DRYS,SLV,SIL,GDX,FNV,qid,xhb|B|P5,3,3
Full size positions: CCJ, TSLA, QID,XHB
FSCHX (tracked by $CEX) 2/3 pos size and reducing
Total PM allocation is 2 full pos size.
UPDATE 3/14/2013 7am:
Daily Silver
I swear it looks like bear flag on a daily chart
And miners are no better
And Dollar is a horse - if it doesn't stop somewhere here, it goes all the way.
Oy Vey...
Dividends received
3/1 GEO 45
3/9-3/11 - IBM 7; XOM 10; CVX 12
Showing posts with label QQQ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QQQ. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Panem et Circenses
What the hell was it yesterday, on 2/27/13?
First of all, it had nothing to do with housing data. Reaction at 10am was timid at best. What happened was a relentless short squeeze, as /ES open interest stood at whooping 3.16mil cars. Can't wait until 9am to see if it gotten smaller - I don't see how people would not cover shorts after this. Now, with late-comer longs already stopped-out, its a time for over-eager shorts to be taken to woodshed. Besides, how can anybody have a directional forecast with gigantic moves on VIX, big-range up and down days, and all political BS on both sides of the pond. Big boys are shaking the tree to see what dislodges, I don't want any part of it.
I didn't exit QQQ short via QID. Although my stop was above 67Q, I decided to wait a bit. Q's still the weakest of indexes and sold-off heavy right before close. There will be no point of keeping this short above todays high and 67.80. I hate to hedge. Makes me so confused - am I long or short? It's like I am not limiting losses, but guaranty that I loose a bit whichever way the market goes. GRRR... One single position QID gives me so much headache, while GEO pushes into new high. Prisons is a leading industry? Buckweats...
UPDATE 2/28 AH:
SLD: QID 27.11 -4%
What a horrible mess I made out of this trade. It was all wrong, shorted at the low - covered at the high. What the hell am I thinking? This is not oops, this is bad-bad-bad.. Atleast I did it with 1pos only, so no big damage.
Which brings me to ongoing Treasure Hunt.
Panem et Circenses is latin for "Bread and Circuses" (or bread and games). Pretty good place to start, considering a peculiar situation with grains and latest legislation about online gaming. Play legal poker online, while high on legal pot and who cares how expensive munchies are...
Ag-complex
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,soyb,corn,bal,moo,tsco,de,cnh,lnn,mon,mos|B|P5,3,3
Soy via SOYB is ready to go today - strongest of grains. JJG has to be bought back above 53. Cotton via BAL really doesn't belong to this group, but its strongest of all softs, buy above recent high. Although MON has a law-suit going on, hard to argue with its straight. TSCO need to buy asap.
UPDATE 2/28 AH:
BOT:
TSCO - 104.10
JJG - 52.04 Half pos. I really wasn't suppose to buy it until tomorrow, but all grains where strong in the morning. Put limit order for SOYB, but it was not getting filled. This is my third time going for grains.
BAL run away while I wasn't watching, now need to wait for pullback.
DRYS - 1.98 Half pos. I was staking it ever since breakout in January, with my eyes on 1.8-1.9 level. Needs to hold it.
FB - 27.19 Half pos. Bot on close. High volume hammer. Last couple of days looked corrective. May be it will not get to 25.
FNV - 48.36 Half pos
GDX - 37.40 Half pos.
Damn the torpedoes! No stop for now. Bullish percent miners is at 3 or 4 for a reason - they all are in downtrend. Will watch for a day or two, then add.
I outlined some thoughts on PM and miners in previous post. Today's double bottom was too good to pass-up. I was keeping an eye an FNV and RGLD. They are not so much miners, but a royalty companies. Last summer they where some of the first to bottom and then rally hard, for whatever the reason
To be sure - I am NOT buying the dip. I'm going into these selected situations, and lightly - most Half Position Size only.
Gaming
BOT:
2/27 - MGAM @ 18.30 half pos
Pot-trade: I really need to have a detailed look at these companies
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3
More on this later...
First of all, it had nothing to do with housing data. Reaction at 10am was timid at best. What happened was a relentless short squeeze, as /ES open interest stood at whooping 3.16mil cars. Can't wait until 9am to see if it gotten smaller - I don't see how people would not cover shorts after this. Now, with late-comer longs already stopped-out, its a time for over-eager shorts to be taken to woodshed. Besides, how can anybody have a directional forecast with gigantic moves on VIX, big-range up and down days, and all political BS on both sides of the pond. Big boys are shaking the tree to see what dislodges, I don't want any part of it.
I didn't exit QQQ short via QID. Although my stop was above 67Q, I decided to wait a bit. Q's still the weakest of indexes and sold-off heavy right before close. There will be no point of keeping this short above todays high and 67.80. I hate to hedge. Makes me so confused - am I long or short? It's like I am not limiting losses, but guaranty that I loose a bit whichever way the market goes. GRRR... One single position QID gives me so much headache, while GEO pushes into new high. Prisons is a leading industry? Buckweats...
UPDATE 2/28 AH:
SLD: QID 27.11 -4%
What a horrible mess I made out of this trade. It was all wrong, shorted at the low - covered at the high. What the hell am I thinking? This is not oops, this is bad-bad-bad.. Atleast I did it with 1pos only, so no big damage.
Which brings me to ongoing Treasure Hunt.
Panem et Circenses is latin for "Bread and Circuses" (or bread and games). Pretty good place to start, considering a peculiar situation with grains and latest legislation about online gaming. Play legal poker online, while high on legal pot and who cares how expensive munchies are...
Ag-complex
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,soyb,corn,bal,moo,tsco,de,cnh,lnn,mon,mos|B|P5,3,3
Soy via SOYB is ready to go today - strongest of grains. JJG has to be bought back above 53. Cotton via BAL really doesn't belong to this group, but its strongest of all softs, buy above recent high. Although MON has a law-suit going on, hard to argue with its straight. TSCO need to buy asap.
UPDATE 2/28 AH:
BOT:
TSCO - 104.10
JJG - 52.04 Half pos. I really wasn't suppose to buy it until tomorrow, but all grains where strong in the morning. Put limit order for SOYB, but it was not getting filled. This is my third time going for grains.
BAL run away while I wasn't watching, now need to wait for pullback.
DRYS - 1.98 Half pos. I was staking it ever since breakout in January, with my eyes on 1.8-1.9 level. Needs to hold it.
FB - 27.19 Half pos. Bot on close. High volume hammer. Last couple of days looked corrective. May be it will not get to 25.
FNV - 48.36 Half pos
GDX - 37.40 Half pos.
Damn the torpedoes! No stop for now. Bullish percent miners is at 3 or 4 for a reason - they all are in downtrend. Will watch for a day or two, then add.
I outlined some thoughts on PM and miners in previous post. Today's double bottom was too good to pass-up. I was keeping an eye an FNV and RGLD. They are not so much miners, but a royalty companies. Last summer they where some of the first to bottom and then rally hard, for whatever the reason
To be sure - I am NOT buying the dip. I'm going into these selected situations, and lightly - most Half Position Size only.
Gaming
BOT:
2/27 - MGAM @ 18.30 half pos
Pot-trade: I really need to have a detailed look at these companies
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3
More on this later...
Thursday, January 17, 2013
New High. 1480 on SPX. SCTY
1/17 - SCTY 14.60 half pos
Lyndon, Peter and "ma niga" Elon Musk managed to put together one helluva company.
No shit, this is actual picture from their website, and it gives me real pleasure to see young faces of their management team. I am a pretty good face reader, and I am smiling looking at these boys and girls.
http://www.solarcity.com/
No indicators, no support/resistance, no earnings, no price history.
Buying half
We had a spirited discussion about that here (link) :
itslance
Darth_Gerb, Incorrigible Iconoclast - Loyalist Leech
I'm sorry, but faces & money do not necessarily correlate IMNSHO.I reply:
I stand by my opinion, that management of SCTY are young, ambitious, driven young people. In finance it's bad, in service/manufacturing it is a combination that been changing the world thru-out history. Look up Elon Musk and see what he did, and what he set out to do.
Having said that, my stop is below most recent low, until further instructions
Then this:
Youth and exuberance is no match for age and treachery.
I answer (how do i come up with this shit?):
Fuck old people
World of the future belongs to young. Young of heart and mind. They don't know what is impossible, they don't know not to charge, they think they will never die... Do that and you will never grow old
(iBergamot grabs oxygen mask)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Something unusual happened yesterday: (wrote here):
Very narrow range on Nazdaq A/D.And so today SPX and IWM hit new highs. QQQ and Naz lagging.
Low -582; high -314. Negative all day long, thats no good.
Over past 6 months I only find 2 days with this narrow range. One end of August, one beginning of November. Both happened after a low vol sideways consolidation, both followed by explosive continuation of preceding trend.
Just one more piece of the puzzle
I am 75% invested, all long. YTD profit is little over 5%, and this is only 2 weeks of this year.
I really want to reflect, that on October 30, 2012 I wrote here (link):
My research shows a high amount of promising situations. Wide variety of great setups is presented. This type of situation happens couple of times a year at most. In the past, I only made aware of it when it's too late. Now I'm in it as it unfolds, already positioned in best and strongest areas...Well, it did happened just like I said. Unfortunately I wrote it when I was liquidating my fucking Flagship account, so no, no, I did not benefit from this knowledge. Subsequently and because of massive emotional breakdown, it took me good 2 months to get back on my feet. I promised myself not to dwell on this, and I wont, but this one time I will look back, acknowledge and move on.
Incidentally, I have a new plan and it's better than old one. May take a couple of years, but it will give me a sizable account to manage, so I can finally do it full time. It will be all mine, no investors, no partners.
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Happy New Year
1/2/2013
Boy, am I glad for taking early exit on my shorts on Monday. Sometimes it's better to be lucky...
12/31/2012
First I did this:
XHB is setting up nicely. Started a position with easy stop under today's low. BOT: 26.20
Than:
I am seriously considering to close my QQQ short early. That would be "breaking the rules", cus neither stop nor objective are hit.
And finally:
Out of shorts.
(Including SRS at loss, and final piece of ZSL. Silver short runner failed, but total profit from "Silver Bullet" that started on 12/14/2012 here is quick 8% in 2 weeks. Good)
Holiday or not, if this doesn't fail - we have a valid reversal. A/D, VIX, bonds - all in agreement.
IWM strong, homebuilders(XHB) lead, emerging markets (EEM) didn't even blink, retailers (XRT) reversing strongly. I thought post-Xmas retail is dead, guess not.
I'm not doing anything today, but SIL is the one to watch
The day is not over, lets see what she can do
12/27/2012
This is Santa Clause Rally. No?
O, I know. This is sideways consolidation, because of Cliff. No?
Short squeeze coming? With 2.7mil cars on ES - there are no bears to kill. No.
How about 100 Samurai aka QQQ. This chart is a BBands madness, but I see a brick wall resistance at 66 and no strong support.
Inflection point? It does't get any better than this. Yes.
Short via QID at the moment
Later that day I bought EEM @ 43.50 without any specific reason. It was just stronger than anything out there and I had too many shorts. I wrote here (link):
"Buying EEM. Stop under 43.
Lets see what she can do"
Boy, am I glad for taking early exit on my shorts on Monday. Sometimes it's better to be lucky...
12/31/2012
First I did this:
XHB is setting up nicely. Started a position with easy stop under today's low. BOT: 26.20
Than:
I am seriously considering to close my QQQ short early. That would be "breaking the rules", cus neither stop nor objective are hit.
And finally:
Out of shorts.
(Including SRS at loss, and final piece of ZSL. Silver short runner failed, but total profit from "Silver Bullet" that started on 12/14/2012 here is quick 8% in 2 weeks. Good)
Holiday or not, if this doesn't fail - we have a valid reversal. A/D, VIX, bonds - all in agreement.
IWM strong, homebuilders(XHB) lead, emerging markets (EEM) didn't even blink, retailers (XRT) reversing strongly. I thought post-Xmas retail is dead, guess not.
I'm not doing anything today, but SIL is the one to watch
The day is not over, lets see what she can do
12/27/2012
This is Santa Clause Rally. No?
O, I know. This is sideways consolidation, because of Cliff. No?
Short squeeze coming? With 2.7mil cars on ES - there are no bears to kill. No.
How about 100 Samurai aka QQQ. This chart is a BBands madness, but I see a brick wall resistance at 66 and no strong support.
Inflection point? It does't get any better than this. Yes.
Short via QID at the moment
Later that day I bought EEM @ 43.50 without any specific reason. It was just stronger than anything out there and I had too many shorts. I wrote here (link):
"Buying EEM. Stop under 43.
Lets see what she can do"
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Santa X-mas Massacre
SLD:
12/21 - FSMEX 28.03 (Med equipment) Received dividend and closed. This industry is a disappointment. Nothing really happened, and although I made some profit, time to go.
12/20 - JJG on-stop 52.76 (see below what I posted about this)
12/20 - ZSL half of half @ 51.70. Keeping less than 1x pos short silver. It's a runner.
12/18 - ZSL half @ 46.33. Locking in some profits. Still have equivalent of 1.5 x short silver.
BOT:
12/21 - QID @ 29.95 1pos of double-short QQQ (see below what I posted about this)
12/26/2012
Attention Holiday Shoppers!
Your spending sucks!
Retail at key support. Yea, it looks like such a beautiful inv H&S, but it it fails...
If you like X-mas sales, wait for "Going out of business" sales
12/21/2012
Nazdaq A/D has 3rd lowest reading since summer.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but the market just got blown up. What if there will not be a Xmas rally?
QID is what i bought to short QQQ.
Stop? I don't need no stinkin' stop, but gap fill is all i prepared to lose.
12/20/2012
I'm looking at grains knifing lower, busting BBands. Tried a long via JJG - stopped out, but looking for reentry. I have nothing to short them with (like short etf), but they can really fall big.
"Santa Silver Bullet" is a really nasty one.
But whats most amazing is all this with Dollar falling.
12/17/2012
AAA said that today will be the last full working day before Xmas. People will start taking off tomorrow. If it is we will see it in lower volumes. How do you roll ES contract without volume?
Santa is all thumbs, covered in coal dust
12/21 - FSMEX 28.03 (Med equipment) Received dividend and closed. This industry is a disappointment. Nothing really happened, and although I made some profit, time to go.
12/20 - JJG on-stop 52.76 (see below what I posted about this)
12/20 - ZSL half of half @ 51.70. Keeping less than 1x pos short silver. It's a runner.
12/18 - ZSL half @ 46.33. Locking in some profits. Still have equivalent of 1.5 x short silver.
BOT:
12/21 - QID @ 29.95 1pos of double-short QQQ (see below what I posted about this)
12/26/2012
Attention Holiday Shoppers!
Your spending sucks!
Retail at key support. Yea, it looks like such a beautiful inv H&S, but it it fails...
If you like X-mas sales, wait for "Going out of business" sales
Nazdaq A/D has 3rd lowest reading since summer.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but the market just got blown up. What if there will not be a Xmas rally?
QID is what i bought to short QQQ.
Stop? I don't need no stinkin' stop, but gap fill is all i prepared to lose.
I'm looking at grains knifing lower, busting BBands. Tried a long via JJG - stopped out, but looking for reentry. I have nothing to short them with (like short etf), but they can really fall big.
"Santa Silver Bullet" is a really nasty one.
But whats most amazing is all this with Dollar falling.
12/17/2012
AAA said that today will be the last full working day before Xmas. People will start taking off tomorrow. If it is we will see it in lower volumes. How do you roll ES contract without volume?
Santa is all thumbs, covered in coal dust
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)