On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.

 Over the next couple of hours I moved  some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
 HAO   - 24.16
 RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn? 
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03  Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO  - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
 2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26  - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what?  VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):

           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing? 

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.
           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.
           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

Detailed Position Review.

I feel a bit giddy and careless, so I must stop and look around. I have less than 10% cash.

SLD:
2/4 - EEM on stop 44.02 (B/E) (Total for EEM in 2013 is B/E)
         Note on EEM: emer mrkts bond where collapsing all January. See PCY, EMB. This bull flag is taking too long on daily, but weekly still looks ok. I think I need to go to individual countries or regions.
2/4 - FB on stop 28.45 (B/E on last half-pos lot) (Total for FB +3.5%)
2/4 - KOL on stop 24.83 (-3%)
2/4 - XHB on stop 28.45 (+8%)
2/4 - now cash is over 20% and I'm not giddy anymore
2/7 - PTR 137 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-85
2/7 - XOM 87.63 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-81 Decided not to wait. PBar to 86.04 - very unusual for this stock.
2/8 - TM 104.28 quick trade exit (+6.5%)

BOT:
2/5 - MON 102.31  Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134
2/5 - GE 22.56 (S12T ;  BTFT)
2/6 - TAN 18.40 Half pos. I sold it on 1/25 here at same price. (Note 2/10 - Damn it, its breaking down again)
2/6 - MOO 55.72 In low volume correction
2/7 - GEO 33.04 for quick trade
2/8 - ZSL 45.75 for quick trade
2/8 - XLE 78.24 on br-out to new high for quick trade
2/8 - HAO 24.69 Half pos
2/8 - EZA 67.75 Little more than half pos

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,JJG,TBT,KOL,SLX,IBB|B|P5,3,3
$CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,scty,tm,ccj,mon|B|P5,3,3
Chemicals and Utilities are 2x positions,
CG, FB, SCTY are half size

CCJ  -   Support 20.50 - 21. ER 2/11amc. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21.  Last PFT 37; now in correction (PFT 26?). All these PFT met.
EEM  - Stop 44.02 set. All out. Now in corr PFT 43. Last PFT 56;  61
FB      - Holding, Stop 28.45 set. All out. Waiting for it to cool-down after earn. In corr to PFT 25.
XLU   -Holding. PFT 38.50;  42;  45.50
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met.  More PFT 508-512.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - still waiting for 20dma. PFT 88 met. More targets 91.50;  95;  104
JJG   - Stop on close under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75. Last PFT 60.30
KOL - May sell today, watching. Sold. Looking to re-enter
SCTY- Higher low may fail. Support 14 - 14.50
SLX  - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72
TBT  - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 66 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
TM   - stop on close under 94.  ER 2/8bmo or was it today? PFT 107; 123; 138
TSLA - Holding. ER 2/11.  SR still 21!  37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50;  52; 61
XHB   - Stop 28.45 set. All out. Last PFT 39

MD - all must be entered by Feb 8, unless exit criteria met. This started S12T.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,PTR,GOOG,BRK/B,GE,IBM,RDS/B,CVX,bhp|B|P5,3,3
BHP is in BTFT and #14, but I took it just the same.
Still need  GE, RDS/B  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)
Update 2/5 - PTR to exit by 2/11; XOM in danger

 BTFT - all entered into OX paper trade on open 1/28/2013. LP as of 1/28.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HBC,BHP,PTR,JNJ,FMX,NVS,ORCL,PFE,TM,GOOG,BRK/B,XOM|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ibm,cvx,ge|B|P5,3,3
GE, RDS/B are not in BTFT and will have to be added within 2PP (by Feb 8)
  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)

Positions, BTFT, S12T

BOT:
2/1 - CCJ - 21.72 (return of "Uranium Trade"? - I've been waiting for this)
2/1 - TM - 97.50
1/30 - BHP - 78.66 (S12T) technically its not in MD, but its #14 and in BTFT and looks good
1/30 - BRK/B - 96.87 (S12T)
1/30 - SCTY 14.31 Half pos. Lets try it again. 13.50 is only support.
1/29 - EEM 44.16 One day its lagging, another leading... I have no idea. Close stop.
1/29 - XOM - 91.50 (S12T)
1/29 - PTR 142.80 (S12T)
1/29 - CVX 116.64  (S12T ; BTFT)
1/28 - GOOG  754.55 (S12T)
1/28 - IBM (S12T ; BTFT)

SLD:
1/30 - IWM 88.78 Sold 1pos on stop, still have 1pos on, waiting for 20dma. 
1/30 - FB 31.23 Half-size out. Have 1/2pos on. ER is a disaster, down 7% AH. Holding.
1/29 - FB 31.19 Half-size out. Still have 1pos on. Earnings tom AMC. Need to sell half before.
1/25 - CG 31.01 Half out. This thing is up 20% in 10 days. wow. SR is still 12; P/E 2 (TWO!) ER - 2/21. Achieved all targets from this post (link), there will be more (this bull has legs)
1/25 - EEM 44.02 (small gain) All out - emer mrkts have been lagging for days. Looking to re-buy.
1/25 - TAN 18.35 out on possible double top and bad news.. Looking to re-buy.
1/25 - SCTY 15.45 (B/E) on bad reaction to news. Looking to re-buy.

on SCTY (1/25/13) -  Only yesterday I was buying more, cus it Looked like this is all of reaction its going to get. I was hoping to buy more around 15... And today Fucking politicians are killing Solar industry again.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/...
Arizona, Pennsylvania, New Jersey - just this week. Wait for more announcements.
 SCTY is a new issue, with no earnings history, no analyst coverage, hell - it doesn't even have a message board on Yahoo.
May take some time.
Patience I have, tolerance for losses I do not. With only support at 13.50ish (thats over 10% down from here), I would rather wait without position than hope.

Positions:
Notes 1/30:
TBT has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again.
KOL, SLX are failing
IBB stop on close under 144
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,JJG,TBT,KOL,SLX,IBB|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX
IWM, Chemicals and Utilities are 2x positions, CG half, FB 1.5x

Watch List:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,GEO,IGE,TAN,SCTY,DRYS,UGA,ORB,GSVC,DDD,moo,rgr|B|P5,3,3
also
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SEA,TM,SMH,NIB,XLK,XLF,yelp|B|P5,3,3

MD - all must be entered by Feb 8, unless exit criteria met. This will start S12T.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,PTR,GOOG,BRK/B,GE,IBM,RDS/B,CVX|B|P5,3,3
Update 1/29 -  still need BRK/B, GE, RDS/B.   BHP set up nicely for tomorrow, its in BTFT and #14, but I'll take it just the same.

BTFT - all entered into OX paper trade on open 1/28/2013.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HBC,BHP,PTR,JNJ,FMX,NVS,ORCL,PFE,TM,GOOG,BRK/B,XOM|B|P5,3,3
GE, IBM, RDS/B, CVX are not in BTFT and will have to be added within 2PP. This will start LP.

Things to do when Volatility Died

BOT:
1/22 - FB @ 30.65    Half pos. Now I have 1.5position on and want more.
1/22 - TAN @18.40. Half pos. Solars are very strong, looking for br-out from bull flag. Will add, not going   to hold too long - next swing high is target.
SLD:
1/22 - NIB @30.
        Cocoa is back in a box. I consider breakout failed.  Daily chart looks like bear-flag. No re-entry for 4 days.

So Volatility via VIX is below 13, which is lowest reading in over 3 years. That among other factors, prompting people to think that the Top is at hand. Fools. Vol can stay low for months and years, infact it did so in 2004 (or there-about), creating a treacherous short squeeze, low-volatility advance - an essence of long-term bull market.
         Low VIX is not an actionable trading signal. Based on this chart, VIX is at historically "normal" level.

       I don't want to have a forecast. Neither short, nor long term. I can make a bunch of valid arguments for and against long-term bull market. Having said that, I feel mighty giddy. I should. I already made more money in this January than in all of 2012. So this is for sure a time to be careful, bring the stops closer, see if I can rotate from over-extended areas into something that about to get going. Except, I don't see anything interesting right now.
        So what do I do on Wall Street when Volatility Dead?

Ongoing project to make lists of ETF grouped by industry or affiliation:
(concept still not clear)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$SPX,$COMPQ,IWM,QQQ,eem,$TNX,TBT,GLD,SLV,USO,AAPL|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CRX,XLU,XLE,OIH,$XNG,GDX,$RXH,XRT,IBB,$XBD|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SPX,$COMPQ,$NIKK,EWJ,EEM,FXI,EWS,EWM,EWH,IFN,vnm|B|E6,12,9
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?REMX,REE,LIT,URA,NLR,KOL,MOO,PHO,PIO,TAN|B|P5,3,3

Main 1. This one makes sense. Not sure of GCC. Need commodities futures index, but not sure of equal weight or like CRB ?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$SPX,$COMPQ,QQQ,IWM,EFA,EEM,$TNX,UUP,GLD,USO,GCC|B|P5,3,3

Main 2. Don't like this list. Need to think
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?spy,dvy,lqd,hyg,tlt,tbt,dba,gld,slv,ige,$cex,ibb|B|P5,3,3

Biggest on Wall-street. Sum of market caps is little over 3 Trillion ! "Mighty Dozen"? Giant Dozen?
Surprisingly, not only they (as a group) do not outperformed SPX , they are not very much correlated to SPX either. All, except Buffett and PTR are part of S and P 500.
 Note: I included PetroChina, because it's #3 in the world now, otherwise I decided to stick with good 'ol USofA. Used market cap data for BRK/A, included B-shares for ease of use.
I am going to make a chart in Excell. Average closing prices, throw in a couple MA's and see what happens.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?spy,aapl,xom,wmt,goog,ge,msft,cvx,ibm,jnj,ptr,brk/b|B|P5,3,3

Very strong housing and real estate sector:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SPX,FSHOX,XHB,ITB,IYR,VNQ,ICF,RWX,RWO,DRV,SRS|B|P5,3,3

Technology. Not sure of this selection, I made this list awhile ago. Why is EWX here?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XLK,IYW,VGT,EWX,SMH,IGV,IXN,FDN,IYZ,GSVC,socl|B|P5,3,3

Commodities (not finished)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CRB,$CCI,DBA,DBC,IGE,GCC,$CRX|D
GCC=CCI (equal weight 17 futures); DBC=CRB? ; CRX is a commod based stocks

iBergamot SLD: TAN, GDXJ, REE, AVL, YELP, TSLA

I am finding myself hoping.
Hope is not a strategy - its a poison, fucking with my head and portfolio.
New watch lists are better than old ones, so I'm starting fresh next week, cleaning old watch lists and preserving money for a new fight.

SOLD 4/18/12 - TSLA on stop
SOLD 4/19/12 - YELP on stop, AVL
SOLD 4/20/12 - GDXJ, TAN, REE
keeping SLV, VNM, STKL 1/2, (-DBA), LYSDY
Core positions TBT, HYG, XLU

iBergamot BOT: TAN, TSLA

TAN - stop 22.55
TSLA - stop 31.80
Rare Earths still weak. Thinking of cutting losses on REE, AVL. Keeping LYSDY until production for sure.