Daily Global Economic Calendar

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Matrix CV. "When to Do It" Q&A

 Although these Questions are few days old and alot of fortunes changed dramatically since last week, many of these levels remain actionable and require ongoing analysis.

There are 3 main buying points within MatrixCV framework on Daily chart :

- Breakout from base or formation (box), or breakout above support/resistance line. Daily candle has to close above the line, thus producing Buy Signal. Put 'stop' order to buy few cents above the high of Signal candle.

- Retest of breakout, or return to support/resistance line from above. This happens because "price has memory". Often, after breakout occurs and price rises strongly for days and /or weeks, eventually it will encounter overhead supply, selling will overwhelm buying and price will come down to about breakout price. Look for Down Day or two with high volume, followed by Up Day that will close higher. That's your Signal. Set 'stop' order to buy few cents above. Alternatively, you can just buy At The Market as the price falls into vicinity of your Line - really, the stock just recently broke out and rallied hard - it already proven itself. Also, if you happen to miss the breakout, this is your chance to buy close to that price.

- Retracement to rising 50 Day Moving Average. When stock breaks out of formation or above established support/resistance line, it is expected to develop a rising trend lasting months to years. At this stage it will not be making many boxes, but it will return to 50DMA every couple of months (or so), providing additional buying points along the way, as well as helping to trail a protective 'sell stop' order. 50dma is one of most widely used trade triggers, and often produces violent reversals.

Remember, that all this geared towards Bull market - price above 200 Day Moving Average and making a succession of Higher highs with Higher lows. When buying in ongoing Bear market (hoping to catch a bottom), bet in halfs or wait for better days.

Friday, July 29, 2022

Landing Page for MatrixCV

Matrix (Compact Version) is a relatively simple way to research, organize and manage a concentrated discretionary portfolio of ETF's and common stocks. This page is the compound of it.

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Weekly 5 Year Chart   https://schrts.co/pkEUZMGF
 
Daily 1 Year Chart  https://schrts.co/WhRRGwIK
 
 
 
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Shopify
 
Uranium
 
"When to do It?" Q&A about Price Movement and Trade Management 
 
Original article from November 2021
 

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Watch List (best to view 4 across)
Trade only your own watch-list. Exceptions are futile!
 
 
 
 


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MarketWatch Simulators
 
MatrixCV for ETF's            https://www.marketwatch.com/games/matrixcv---etfs
 
The purpose is to buy 5 equal size positions, in order to practice portfolio management, and to later transition from simulator to real money.


 

Friday, July 8, 2022

Rate T of 2021-2023

 A new Rate T has developed. 

T-Theory uses 30-Year Treasury Yield $TYX to estimate future dates of meaningful lows, major corrections and periods of softness (sideways volatile consolidation) in broad stock market ($SPX, $NYA). Although dates are known in advance, it is not possible to predict what kind of a low may occur, at what price level, whether it will be higher or lower low or even last correction low before rally starts. Plus, there is a margin of error of no more than 10%.

Over the past 10 years or so, it has been prudent to lighten up portfolio of stocks well before Rate T projected dates hit, so ample funds will be available to do some buying on downlow. Spread your bets, reduce size, widen stops - we are already in the midst of historical bear market, that may get whole lot more historical.

21-23 Rate T started with high in 30yr Yield of 2.5% on week of March 15, 2021. There are two minor highs of 2.4% - first one happen 3 weeks prior and last high was on week of May 10. (As of this writing, "last high" already hit one of its projections)

There are two possible placements for centerpost of  the T - Time Symmetry Projection - producing 2 sets of time targets for when a low in stocks may occur. 

The Low of this move in rates at 1.67% on week of November 29, 2021 produces 37 weeks Rate T with target on week of August 15, 2022 (July 25-Sept 6, considering margin of error).

Last Low Before Breakout at 2.07% on week of February 28, 2022 produced 50 week Rate T with target on week of February 13, 2023 (Jan 9 - March 20, considering margin of error).

IMNSHO, this relatively small Rate T has so many wiggles so close together - its practically a guarantee we gonna have a non stop volatile circlejerk (punctuated by few moments of sheer horror) from here and all the way to Spring of 2023.

Projections of 21-23 Rate T:

June 21, Aug 15, Aug 29, 2022.    Dec19, Feb 13, Mar 6, 2023.