Short Commodities Short

Some of my biggest losses in 2013 where stocks index shorts. While operating in non-margin LB account, only way to short is thru leveraged short etf's - and they carry their own set of practical problems. Never mind the futility of attempts to short S&P 500 during roaring bull market, I am talking about decay of leveraged etf's. I experienced it first hand in SDS, which suppose to be the most efficient and liquid vehicle to short major index, but was decaying by a full percentage point per month. Now , equipped with (almost) full power BCM account, I can try to use it to my advantage.

While reviewing Commodity Index etf's in  Real Stuff post (link), I was noticing how lousy this way is for investing into commodities. Not only all of them are at-least second derivative on underlying futures, options or some kind of swaps, but they are poorly managed. I don't know any people involved, and may be they are actually doing a good job, may be this is as good as it can be... I want to believe in responsible, smart people, performing their fiduciary duty... Somehow their customers are at constant disadvantage, suffering decay and high costs, and continuously under-performing corresponding index. All this is Commodities Index Long.

Take all problems of long commodity etf, flip it on its head, add leverage, wild futures swings and inefficient options market, multiply by illiquid equity etf market, raise to power of Wall Street sociopaths - and bingo - formula for leveraged short commodities etf's. This must be a disaster of tremendous size, and looking at how many of them closed down last year - the 2nd year of major BEAR market in commodities !- they know there is a problem. THEY always know, I'm just following the bread crumbs.

The way to use this dilemma to my advantage is to  Short Commodities Short, but carefully. It requires for commodities to at-least not fall, they really don't even have to rally big - decay is on my side.

There is only one commodity index short - DDP; whole bunch of energy double and triple short etf's (as it should be - oil and gas are the biggest component of any commodity index); closely followed by gold and silver. Specifically PM inverse etf's are very liquid with active volume pattern - must be real popular these days... he-he

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DDP,AGA,BOM,ERY,DNO,DTO,SZO,SCO,DWTI,DGAZ,KOLD,GASX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DZZ,DGZ,DGLD,GLL,ZSL,dslv,DUST|B|P5,3,3

I don't have any short interest info on these, but Finviz study reveals monster volatility on weekly time frame. Not a  single one would be considered by System 12, in fact its an exact inverse of every rule of System 12.

 These following charts are the real world results of this atrocity.
So what did you trade during 2-year long commodity bear-market?
That -95% disgrace is ERY - Direxion  Energy 3x Bear
Gold and Silver shorts are a definition of  'monkey hammer', especially DSLV - now that looks almost criminal!

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 "He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And when you gaze long into an abyss the abyss also gazes into you." - Friedrich Nietzsche

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UPDATE 2/3/2014
Well, unfortunately things don't always work out in real world, and sometimes not even due to my own error. Specifically, this excellent notion of shorting leveraged inverse commodity etf's -
a complete fucking scam.

First of all, these shares are not readily available for short sale at my brokerage OptionsXpress. I understand the mechanics of short sale and , yes, its possible for any security (even actively traded) to be 'hard to borrow'. An option to call a representative was a way to go. I did. Surprise! There are some shares available, not for all symbols, not many, not all the time, in odd amounts, but available nevertheless. So I shorted whatever I could get - I didn't need too much, because of my position size rules. All is well in BCM land...

Then on Friday 1/31/2014 - boom! - all my short shares covered by brokers order (cough...Amy...cough), because they are no longer available... WTF, you know...?  I send an angry e-mail, but not expecting much. Brokers can do whatever they want. I should be looking for new broker, or just go back to Interactive Brokers (shit, I don't like so many things about them), which will make me re-start System 12 again. Again?! OMFG!

Obviously, I am pulling this theme. Its a good, practical idea... oh, screw that - its a fucking brilliant idea!..., but its not robust, and prone to failure thru no fault of my own.
I know 'when to fold 'em'...

-------------------------------------IN THE NEWS-------------------------
Obammer announced "My RA" during State of the Union Address.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-launch-government-backed-retirement-110000794.html

MyRA will be like Roth IRA, but with holdings backed by the U.S. government like savings bonds.
A-HA - this is where QE bonds going to go! Will be sold back to muppets! Un-fucking-believable!
Sounds like a great set-up: 15K maximum contribution for 30 years, earning variable rate (that's your Treasury Bonds), practically no minimum contribution limit, and (because its after-tax money) contribution can be withdraw at any time tax-free (didn't I already said that?). Yep, its all tax-free after taxes paid, except for gains that are taxable again.
If family makes more that 191K a year, they can not play.
 "MyRA guarantees a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in," President Barack Obama said
Oh, I was worried there for a second...
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-28/marc-faber-warns-insiders-are-selling-crazy-short-us-stocks-buy-treasuries-gold
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You Are Mine

System 12 and more

 BOT:
7/24  - COW 26.97 Half pos size. Livestock etn to continue agricultural theme (which is currently is atleast in doubt). After a triple-bottom in spring it break-out over 26.50 and 50dma. Buying half on first reaction, to see if it can hold 50dma and go over declining 200dma.
8/8 - PPP 4.73 Adding new position to Gold Miners portfolio. Good relative strength. 1/4 pos size.
8/9 - RGLD 54.78 Adding half pos, now i have a full pos on.
8/9 - TWM 15.45 Double short Russell2000 (IWM)
8/13 - YELP 51.70 Incredibly strong mo-mo chart. There is something going on. Tight stop.
After stop out on 8/15 at 48.02, I re-entered on 8/21 at 50.24
8/19 - SSYS 102.10 Half pos. Starting one more 3D printer company on first reaction after 52week high. Really not a good entry point.
8/20 - TSCO 120.27. Re-entering trade after stop-out at lows on 8/15. Now I have to chase, and I still can't make up my mind if its a strong stock or not. Its one of last remnants of agricultural theme, currently very much in doubt.
8/21 - KEX 84.44 Biggest shipper of all in strong uptrend. Buying dip. If fails there are few levels of support to re-enter in 75-80 area. UPDATE: Stop out on 8/30 at 81.22.
8/23 - UCO 36.97 Long oil. Price pattern only, I don't care about Syria. PFTargets for WTIC 114, 128-129
8/23 - GDX 30.30 Buying another half pos size
8/28 - SRS 23.35 Shorting Real Estate, IYR is proxy.

 SLD:
7/26 - TBT 74.58 Selling last half position bought on 5/17 for 12+% gain. Now I have a 1 full pos, bought on 7/10.
8/1 - CCJ 19.72 on stop.  Looking to pick a bottom of that 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom box.
On 8/8 I re-entered at 19.63, thinking that i got shaken out for no reason at-all, but was stopped out again on 8/19 at 19.49 for a small loss.
8/13 - FB 37.12. Take profit on half pos.
8/14 - SCTY 36.23. After ER on 8/5 this is completely fell apart, even with solars (via TAN) strong. Close this half position (bought on 6/28) for 5% loss. SCTY made me alot of money this year, let it cool a bit.
8/15 - TSCO 116.97 Stop out at the lows. Will re-enter.
8/15 - TK 38.04 Weak shipper. Taking 5% loss.
8/20 - VNM 18.23 Exit this half pos size trade at almost 7% loss. Emerging markets are bust.
8/20 - TWM 16.12 Exit position bought on 8/9 for small (less than 5%) gain. Shorting R2K is hard.
8/23 - TBT 80.40 Exit full pos for 5% gain. Looking for re-entry.
8/23 - SDS 37.78 Exit position from 5/16 for 3% loss, although SPX is at almost same level. Thats leveraged etf decay, plus I am shorting the Bull Market.
8/28 - NM 6.24 Half size out. Taking profits on rip. PFT 7 and 7.50 remains.
8/28 - EWJ 11.11. Small loss. I am confused about Japan, yen, and difference between $NIKK and EWJ.
8/29 - UCO 38.73 Taking quick 4% profit on oil. Looking for re-entry.

Dividends:
7/25 - FNV
7/31 - TK
8/29 - FNV

Positions  and watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,NIB,JJG,SDS,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,DDD,SSYS,FB,YELP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,PPP,NM,TBT,VNM,AMLP,COW|B|P5,3,3

System 12 Update

Earnings season is over and it did alot of damage. Many Mega Dozen (MD) and SD stocks are under 50/200 day MA's and I am looking  to buy if/when they recover. Failure here would be catastrophic for markets worldwide!

This is MD as of 8/16/2013.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,xom,GOOG,BRK/B,MSFT,JNJ,GE,WMT,CVX,WFC,PG,chl|B|P5,3,3
Of note - AAPL took top spot  for first time since mid-2012. RDS is replaced by CHL, they are very close together, but RDS is recently disqualified.  XOM took a hit under 200 and 50ma.
XOM, GOOG, MSFT, WMT, CVX, RDS are all under 50dma, and BRK is right on it.

This is SD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?rds/b,ptr,hbc,tm,ibm,jpm,pfe,t,bhp,nvs,ko,bbl|B|P5,3,3
RDS, PTR, IBM, T, BHP are disqualified.  JPM, PFE, HBC, NVS, KO are under or at 50dma.  BBL and BHP is the same company, with BBL just a bit over 200dma. Second Dozen is basically poop.

MD+ 8/16/2013

BTFT positions: (3 available slots)
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?BRK/B,CVX,GE,GOOG,JNJ,PFE,TM,wfc,xom|B|P5,3,3
XOM, GOOG, CVX  - liquidate or by-pass. These from MD.

Available - AAPL, PG, CHL, HBC(from SD)

S12T has XOM (blown all stops and out of PP) and WFC. Looking to add all available and also BRK, GE, JNJ.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,PG,CHL,HBC,BRK/B,GE,JNJ|B|P5,3,3

Gold Digger

From all gold-miners around the world -  these are profitable, trade over 200k per day, and priced over $1.Sorted by advance from 50 day low, which is still April Crash low

Here are what I think the best charts from above list, plus 3 silver miners with similar metrics.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GDX,IAG,FNV,GORO,NGD,GOLD,PPP,AUY,GG,HL,SLW,AG|B|P5,3,3
 From looking at these charts I would never guess that these are profitable companies, paying dividends, with decent institutional ownership, with low debt and almost no short interest.

Another list I put together couple of weeks ago. I don't remember how I picked these, but PPP is in it again.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOLD,AGI,NSU,AZK,PPP,DRD,LODE,KGJI,MGN,FCX,scco,azc|B|P5,3,3

Positions, Bergamot T Out

Conservative Bergamot T run out in beginning of April.I arranged these center-posts back in January in this post (link).
Conservative T is anchored into violent V-shaped November bottom, and proved correct. Now the remaining questions are: will this be a double top with  higher or lower low, or some kind of "Null Echo" effect, or may be longer T into summer is not correct at-all. There where questions about validity of December center-post, because Nov 15 and Dec 28 bottoms are too far apart.
That aside, I consider this Bergamot T project a success. It guided me just fine since beginning of the year and I am looking forward to doing this again sometimes in future.

BOT:
4/9 - TRX 3.62 1/4pos
4/12 - HDGE 17.45 Half pos
4/18 - TSCO 105.79
4/18 - TRX 2.60 1/4pos
4/18 - SRS 19.65 Half pos
4/18 - SCTY 20.18 Half pos
4/18 - IMAX 27.74 Half pos
4/18 - HDGE 18.29 Half pos

Dividends received 4/12-4/19: CCJ, RGLD, Chemical Mut fund: $49.42 (whoopty doo)

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,BAL,NIB,QID,SDS,HDGE,SRS,FB,MON,tsco,IMAX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,trx,scty|B|P5,3,3

 Here are size and cost basis (incl commissions). 57% invested. Silver and PM miners group is 12%+ allocation, and losing 2.5% of account.
 
BAL  - 56.64 I was expecting Cotton to find support by now. More support down to 50. Weekly chart looks great - buyable dip right now. PFTargets: 51.50; longer term 89
FB    - 26.20 Chopping in a box. Support 24.70-25.70. Volume Profile (VP) improving in April.
FSCHX- 96.05 Half pos basis (25% mark-up)  $CEX stop under 368. CEX PFT 370met.  More PFT 450; 508-512.
IMAX - 27.87 Half pos.    This is possibly a Low Volatility Mover (LVM). Not a single close below 5wema for 4 months. Nothing overbought. I wanted to catch one of these for a long time. Trailing loose stop 25-26. Looking to add on strength above 28.     PFT 33; 37; 43.50
MON  - 107.17 Loss of momentum and weakness on VP. Support 97.50-98.50. PFT 98.50; 111; 133
NIB  - 29.39  Cocoa started on Mar 15, 2013 in this post (link), I bot on 3/20 and 28.  Support 29-30. PFT 37; 56
SCTY - 20.28 Half pos  PFT 28.50
TSCO - 106.06  PFT 108 (met); 126; 154
TSLA - 35.50 Half pos (38% mark-up) Short ratio came down to 13 from 21, but still 42% of float short!  PFT 41.50 and 52 met. More PFT 61; 67; 100

HDGE - 17.91
QID  - 26.49
SDS  - 45.24
SRS - 19.75 Half pos

SLV  - 28.20 Half pos
GDX - 37.61 Half pos (-23% dr-down)
SIL  - 17.80 Half pos
FNV  - 48.63 Half pos
RGLD - 68.96 Half pos
TRX -  3.04 Half pos  (-10% dr-down)

In The News:

GOLD - 4/23/13

NEW YORK--Goldman Sachs on Tuesday closed its recommendation to "short" gold, telling clients to exit bets on lower gold prices.

The bank had told its clients to bet on lower gold prices April 10.
 "Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists' forecast for a reacceleration in U.S. growth later this year," they said.

4/23/13 - Small Flash Crash
AP Twitter account got hacked and planted a story that two bombs detonated at the white house, injuring Obama. Lasted 5 minutes - 300,000cars ES and 50mil shares SPY. 

"Boss, we need to check the machines
No
Pleeease, we don't even know if they are working
No
Pretty please, just a few minutes
Ok, Ok, 5 minutes only
Yee-ha, hit it Lloyd!"

Market Condition

Confidence Indicator (CI) popularized by late great Terry Laundry.He had a whole theory behind how and why it works, tested and researched for many years. The way I use it is simply a ratio of High Yield Bonds overweighted in Technology to Treasuries 15/25 years to maturity. Risk on / risk off so to say. It has an excellent success rate for divergences of this ratio to S&P500 leading to significant downside in Equities,  just like what it has now. Present divergence in price was preceded by internal weakness of indicator itself, as evident by MACD divergence.

 Bunch of other divergences present itself. New High to New Low Ratio gone negative for the first time this year. Less than half of S&P500 stocks are above 50DMA (per $SPXA50R). This is with SPX only about 3% off the highs! Also a deterioration is visible since March

Small caps and Naz100 are weak and leading down. Financials XLF dipped below 50DMA ahead of SPX.
Naz A/D indicator is very weak.

................................................................................................................
 April 19  GOLD Sentiment
40% of newsletter writers recommend shorting Gold - this is most bearish since 2008

April 18   GOLD - Physical demand
           The U.S. Mint in April has sold 153,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins, the highest in almost three years, after futures prices started the week by plunging the most since 1980.
Sales have more than doubled from March and surged sevenfold from a year earlier, data on the Mint’s website showed. The amount for all of May 2010 was 190,000 ounce.
          This week, retail sales and jewelry demand soared in India, the world’s top gold buyer, and China, the second-biggest, after futures in New York slumped into a bear market, touching the lowest in more than two years. Coin sales also surged in Australia.

April 17 GOLD
CME Hikes Gold, Silver Margins By 18.5%. Only big boys are allowed to play.

April 15, 2013 Monday.  GOLD  falls $150 to low 1335 (close 1361). Half of that drop happened overnight before US market opened.  Volume 657090 cars !!! Highest volume of that day came shortly after open, as gold broke 1400

April 14  GOLD - HFT 


The implication is that HFT bots driving gold down. They are perfectly designed to chew through bid structures, and that's what you see above.  They are 'digesting' all the orders that were still on the books for gold, to remove them so that lower and lower stops could be run.  Charts and explanation are from http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/81535/gold-slam-massive-wealth-transfer-our-pockets-banks
I had no idea that Gold is liquid enough to handle these machines.

April 12, 2013  Friday.    GOLD  falls $88 to 1501
Goldman Sachs now expects gold to fall to $1,450 an ounce by the end of the year; the company’s original forecast was around $1,810. By the end of 2014, the company believes the precious metal will falter even more, falling to $1,270. Goldman’s 12-month gold outlook also fell from $1,550 to $1,390. Goldman also cut its short-term outlook, cutting its three-month forecast from $1,615 to $1,530 an ounce.

COTTON
 Beijing–through the China Cotton Association–has agreed to extend its stockpiling program of the commodity, and will renew cotton stockpiling from September 2013 to March 2014, with no upper limit on purchases.

...............................................................................................................
I will start to track some of the news. Not because it helps in routine trading. It doesn't. But because markets can't fall without some "shaking of the tree". News cycle has been very quite and benign ever since the beginning of the year, which is unnatural. I strongly believe that some of the news are in fact a "warning shot across the bow", something that changes the balance of things, but often understood only with benefit of hindsight. Still I remember very clearly that I saw right thru all the BS about Jerome Kerviel back in 2008. Kid was softly setup to take a fall for some 500 million in losses for Société Générale (SoGen is a europian equivalent of Goldman Sachs), allowing the bank to get out of massive position in US markets right before Sub-Prime crisis began.
The idea is to plot biggest news on a chart for future use.

In The News:

April 16
Letters containing deadly ricin poison received by Presidents office, some senators and judge. No casualties. Suspect apprehended 2 days later and appears crazy.

April 15 Boston Marathon Bombing. Chechen's involved.

April
        North Korea threatens nuclear attack, severs ties with South Korea. TV is full of cartunish videos of their mid-20th Century army and rockets and that fat kid (Lil Kim). It did get people scared.
        Congress coming back from vacation, get a budget from president that is bigger than before, shots down gun legislation. Starting to shake the news a bit.
        Bitcoin bubble. 40 to 265 in days, than back to less than 80 in hours.
        Japan announces that not only they will print money, but also buy bonds, stocks, ETF's and real estate for next 2 years.
        Numerous announcements of local and other taxes going up. Cost of doing business is thru the roof.

Beginning of April - Bird Flu outbreak in China. Some people died. Human-to-human transmission suspected, but denied by Chinese authorities.

Beginning of March - Cyprus bank crisis. Bank holiday, depositors looted, bailout failed, followed by rumors of their gold reserve sales. Germany approved bailout on April 18

Gold Crash

Below chart from Tiho Brkan shows that gross speculative short positions are at their highest levels in decades. Furthermore, last week public opinion (an amalgamation of a handful of surveys courtesy of sentimentrader.com) reached the lowest level since at least 2004. And bullish percent miners via $BPGDM is at 0 - as it should be in strong downtrend.

 

 During summer 2008 SLV lost about 50% and October 2008  looked liked no bottom I ever seen.
Infact it looked like Silver goes way down from there. Position in SLV bought anytime during that bear would still be profitable btw.

Fast forward to today.
Buy low - sell high?
This is definitely low (which can become even lower), it just have to slow down...

Specifically, I will not be buying today. All PM's are facing margin liquidation which will happen after 2pm. We had it on Friday, and today futures traders are facing a total loss of their position.

What is going on? I have a theory. For one, if you know that several countries (not hedge funds) may be in position to sell gold in order to repay money they owe to you? Will you help them sell gold at highest prices to somebody else, or at lowest print directly to you?… and blah-blah-blah (add your favorite conspiracy theory).
But really I simply think that this support level was too widely watched, accumulated alot of stoploss orders and now we have a cascading effect. Gold-bugs suffered for too long, capitulating. May last for days-to-weeks, may be over tomorrow

We are looking at transfer of shares from weak hands to strong ones.
Rivers of blood!
Don't get swept away...:-)

Some funny-mentals. Top panel is US based, bottom is Canada. I don't want to touch any South Africa, Peru,etc. All these are profitable! At first glance - I don't see any massive shorts, I do see inst ownership, dividends, low debt and low Price-to-Book on most of these.    HMMM - is an understatement.!

Here is what crazies are up to:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/all-eyes-gold-rout-most-oversold-14-years

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4643/history-making

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$GOLD,abx,gg,nem,au,aem,gold,rgld,fcx|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?gld,slv,gdx,gdxj,sil,mux,trx,fnv,exk,mgn,jag,mdw|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,PSLV,SLW,PAAS,CDE,AG,HL,SSRI,SVM,EXK,MVG,GPL|B|P5,3,3

On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.

 Over the next couple of hours I moved  some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
 HAO   - 24.16
 RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn? 
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03  Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO  - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
 2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26  - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what?  VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):

           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing? 

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.
           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.
           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

iBergamot wins again

VNM is on fire. If it comes down a bit, I will add. Also looking at EPU (Peru), but not today.
Rare Earths are weak. SLV and GDXJ are ripping tits.

The following is stolen, err borrowed from The Fly of iBankCoin fame:

A FAZmobile was seen zipping down the street. Inside of it was a bearshitter, clad in a burlap hoodie and florescent orange velcro pants. This FAZmobile I speak of traveled at frightening speeds. Onlookers cowered as it “zipped” by.
Back on Wall Street, Benjamin Bernanke was fireside, smoking a blunt filled with Moroccan hashish, mumbling to himself “I’m gonna get those bitches.”
The FAZmobile headed towards Wall. The occupant fancied he’d crash his mobile into the building where Benjamin Bernanke resided, with designs of destroying The Bearded Clam and his army of printing presses.
As the FAZmobile approached, Ben stepped outside, gazing at the insanity on wheels that was the FAZmobile. From the skies a large object appeared. It descended upon Wall Street with such force, the ground trembled, tipping the FAZmobile over on its back.
Benjamin entered this object, which happened to be The Federal Reserve helicopter, flicking his blunt down below at the FAZmobile, which was paralyzed and stupid, drenched in its own gasoline. As the flames plumed into the NYC skyline, Ben smiled and said “I got you bitch.”
The end.

All industry groops and foreign markets were taken out and shot.

Be careful what you wish for.
I wanted a correction, now I have a sea of red.

SPX is down 23pts. Review of sectors, gold and silver, international markets.
My ES day-trade gone wrong.
Whats up with China? Why is it not in any of my lists? Hmm...

Things are Getting Interesting

A/D Indicator is oversold.
Market is in correction of unknown price and time.
Gold, Silver and miners are at the bottom of the list. Time to buy?

Quick late night overview on March 6, 2012