Daily Global Economic Calendar

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Red Pill

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=38179#disqus_thread

         "The answer is to stay the fuck out of foreign countries and get our own affairs in order. Of course the 'end-game' scenario completely removes that option - at this point the banksters implicitly run the West and parts of Asia.

The United States remains in a constant state of war for decades now - it's become a routine for the American people. The incurred and implicit cost are the implications that are becoming increasingly more apparent every day. Failing school systems, failing government, failing infrastructure, failing economy, failing currency system, failing morals, failing social services, failing empathy, failing families, should I continue?
The best thing we can do is to detach ourselves from the day to day drama and solely focus on becoming independent economically and personally so that we are able to seek shelter and peace in an increasingly hostile and dangerous world.

Between my wife and I we speak four languages which gives us access to large parts of the planet. We own almost nothing and we rent - in theory we can break up tent in a matter of days and be gone. My business is online and I can run it from almost anywhere in the world (Australia/Asia being the most difficult). If I decide to move to some island in the mid Pacific then all I need is access to a satellite and I'm good to go.
Possessions and debt is what drags you down - the game has changed completely and ultimate freedom is being able to choose and not being dependent on anyone. Which is also why I chose to become a trader - it is one of the few trades you can do from anywhere and nobody cares who you are and where you come from. All you need is a trading account and your smarts.

 Evil Speculator was founded on that very premise. To help others gain the ability to embrace independence and detach themselves from the 'machine' - or 'the system'. Evil Speculator inherently is 'red pill' - we don't waste our time with lofty discussions or debates on what makes the market tick or fundamental issues. We have no means to affect the outcome of what lies ahead - which has been in the works for decades now. What we CAN do is to adjust, focus on the change we can effect for ourselves, and thus secure peace, liberty, freedom, and prosperity for ourselves and our loved ones."
 Molecool of   evilspeculator.com

I wanted to add couple of my own thoughts on this matter, but really he put it so well, I would be just repeating. My views about life in general had changed alot over past couple of years. Molecool had a significant influence, and also works of Ayn Rand, Nassim Taleb, Michael Lewis, Daniel Kahneman and others. It was a quest to find answers to some important, but vague questions. A very frustrating experience until I realized that I was asking wrong questions.

Objectivism, by Ayn Rand holds that:

  1. Reality exists as an objective absolute—facts are facts, independent of man’s feelings, wishes, hopes or fears.
  2. Reason (the faculty which identifies and integrates the material provided by man’s senses) is man’s only means of perceiving reality, his only source of knowledge, his only guide to action, and his basic means of survival.
  3. Man—every man—is an end in himself, not the means to the ends of others. He must exist for his own sake, neither sacrificing himself to others nor sacrificing others to himself. The pursuit of his own rational self-interest and of his own happiness is the highest moral purpose of his life.
  4. The ideal political-economic system is laissez-faire capitalism. It is a system where men deal with one another, not as victims and executioners, nor as masters and slaves, but as traders, by free, voluntary exchange to mutual benefit. It is a system where no man may obtain any values from others by resorting to physical force, and no man may initiate the use of physical force against others. The government acts only as a policeman that protects man’s rights; it uses physical force only in retaliation and only against those who initiate its use, such as criminals or foreign invaders. In a system of full capitalism, there should be (but, historically, has not yet been) a complete separation of state and economics, in the same way and for the same reasons as the separation of state and church.
From Ayn Rand Institute http://www.aynrand.org

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Positions and Watch List

...developing...
BOT:
8/30 - FB 41.97. Full pos. I think it will take out all time high (made on day of IPO), or fall apart right here and now.
9/3 - TBT 78.52. Re-entering just as planned. I've been riding this trend since 5/16. Last time I took profit on 8/23 at 80.40. Every trade in "Short US Treasuries" theme was profitable this year. This is what Bonds bear market does.

SLD:
9/4 - SSYS 106.70. Taking small profit on this half pos trade. I don't like intraday action, plus I didn't buy it well. Will watch and may re-enter
9/4 - SIL 15.37. half pos size of silver miners. Now I have full pos on.

DIVIDEND:
9/1 - WFC (from System12)
9/4 - TSCO


Main1
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$SPX,$COMPQ,QQQ,IWM,EFA,EEM,$TNX,UUP,GLD,USO,GCC|B|P5,3,3
S&P Sectors+
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLY,ibb,gdx|B|P5,3,3

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH,gwph|B|P5,3,3
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1716802-capitalizing-on-cannabis-divergence-among-the-pot-stocks?source=yahoo
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1655672-capitalizing-on-cannabis-a-review-of-publicly-traded-marijuana-stocks?source=yahoo

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOLD,HL,PVG,sppp,PPLT,PALL,PPP,LODE,GORO,AGI,ng,ngd|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?tbt,ewj,vnm,ccj,tk,tan,scty,pgh,ige,lnn,imax|B|P5,3,3

 Watch-List Cleaner
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/04/watch-list-cleaner.html


Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,NIB,JJG,COW,SDS,SRS,TSCO,DDD,SSYS,FB,YELP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,PPP,NM,kex,AMLP,uco|B|P5,3,3

...
Old Timers, gotta love 'em.
Moe Ansari talks to  Pamela Aden about everything



Sunday, August 18, 2013

Big Data and Cloud

Why am I so scared? A reflection of social mood or contrarian stance?
The weakest link - information, communication, cell phone and internet. There are redundancies, protection and back-up, but will it be enough? A small earthquake (about a year or two ago) - and everybody was lost, no phone, no plan... one can steal a City-Hall and nobody will notice until sometime later.

They think a stop-loss order will work. If you can put it in, if broker will receive it, if market functions properly and with liquidity enough to accommodate... Many if's

I hear a lot of stories about hackers and internet attacks. I hear stories about Big Data mining and spying. I hear that Cloud Computing will change the way we live and work on internet. I am asking a lot of question, I am asking computer programmers and users, I read, I research. I have NOT heard a meaningful and coherent explanation about how all this shit really works together. If the only people who should know, really don't - what about the rest of us?

There is a ISE Cloud Computing Index Fund - SKYY - its top 10 holdings (almost a half of assets) change quite a bit from month to month, plus they rebalance semi-annually. Expense ratio is 0.6%. Started trading in Summer 2011, it recently broke all time highs with strong Volume Profile (VP).

Cyber Security
https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/cyber-security1#/overview
 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41538.html
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_securitysoftwareservices&o=-marketcap

----------UPDATE 2/16/2014------------------
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/02/16/the-next-super-trend-is-here/#comments
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FEYE,CUDA,IMPV,SPLK,DATA,SWI,GIMO,PANW,BLOX,DWRE,sale,crto|B|P5,3,3
--------------------------------------------------
            UPDATE UPDATE 4/9/2014
Less than 2 months later all Fly's picks from above look pretty pump-n-dumpish...


..............................................In the News.............................................
Less than 2 weeks after this post Nasdaq main computer broke down for 3 hours. As soon as it came back, NYSE computer froze. The following day Eurex Exchange broke down for over an hour. "Technical issues" are the reason. Yea, no shit. Trading was disrupted for some securities, and I actually had some of them, and I couldn't put the sell-stop order in. All this when volume was very low and many are still on summer vacation, plus Sell Rosh Hashanna on September 5. So the question from above post: "If you can put your stop order in?.. The answer is : NO!

Other than that, its all Sirya. We are not going in without UN resolution, which Russia and China promised to veto, except they walked out from meeting where voting was suppose to happen. Politics - show business for ugly people.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

System 12 and more

 BOT:
7/24  - COW 26.97 Half pos size. Livestock etn to continue agricultural theme (which is currently is atleast in doubt). After a triple-bottom in spring it break-out over 26.50 and 50dma. Buying half on first reaction, to see if it can hold 50dma and go over declining 200dma.
8/8 - PPP 4.73 Adding new position to Gold Miners portfolio. Good relative strength. 1/4 pos size.
8/9 - RGLD 54.78 Adding half pos, now i have a full pos on.
8/9 - TWM 15.45 Double short Russell2000 (IWM)
8/13 - YELP 51.70 Incredibly strong mo-mo chart. There is something going on. Tight stop.
After stop out on 8/15 at 48.02, I re-entered on 8/21 at 50.24
8/19 - SSYS 102.10 Half pos. Starting one more 3D printer company on first reaction after 52week high. Really not a good entry point.
8/20 - TSCO 120.27. Re-entering trade after stop-out at lows on 8/15. Now I have to chase, and I still can't make up my mind if its a strong stock or not. Its one of last remnants of agricultural theme, currently very much in doubt.
8/21 - KEX 84.44 Biggest shipper of all in strong uptrend. Buying dip. If fails there are few levels of support to re-enter in 75-80 area. UPDATE: Stop out on 8/30 at 81.22.
8/23 - UCO 36.97 Long oil. Price pattern only, I don't care about Syria. PFTargets for WTIC 114, 128-129
8/23 - GDX 30.30 Buying another half pos size
8/28 - SRS 23.35 Shorting Real Estate, IYR is proxy.

 SLD:
7/26 - TBT 74.58 Selling last half position bought on 5/17 for 12+% gain. Now I have a 1 full pos, bought on 7/10.
8/1 - CCJ 19.72 on stop.  Looking to pick a bottom of that 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom box.
On 8/8 I re-entered at 19.63, thinking that i got shaken out for no reason at-all, but was stopped out again on 8/19 at 19.49 for a small loss.
8/13 - FB 37.12. Take profit on half pos.
8/14 - SCTY 36.23. After ER on 8/5 this is completely fell apart, even with solars (via TAN) strong. Close this half position (bought on 6/28) for 5% loss. SCTY made me alot of money this year, let it cool a bit.
8/15 - TSCO 116.97 Stop out at the lows. Will re-enter.
8/15 - TK 38.04 Weak shipper. Taking 5% loss.
8/20 - VNM 18.23 Exit this half pos size trade at almost 7% loss. Emerging markets are bust.
8/20 - TWM 16.12 Exit position bought on 8/9 for small (less than 5%) gain. Shorting R2K is hard.
8/23 - TBT 80.40 Exit full pos for 5% gain. Looking for re-entry.
8/23 - SDS 37.78 Exit position from 5/16 for 3% loss, although SPX is at almost same level. Thats leveraged etf decay, plus I am shorting the Bull Market.
8/28 - NM 6.24 Half size out. Taking profits on rip. PFT 7 and 7.50 remains.
8/28 - EWJ 11.11. Small loss. I am confused about Japan, yen, and difference between $NIKK and EWJ.
8/29 - UCO 38.73 Taking quick 4% profit on oil. Looking for re-entry.

Dividends:
7/25 - FNV
7/31 - TK
8/29 - FNV

Positions  and watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,NIB,JJG,SDS,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,DDD,SSYS,FB,YELP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,PPP,NM,TBT,VNM,AMLP,COW|B|P5,3,3

System 12 Update

Earnings season is over and it did alot of damage. Many Mega Dozen (MD) and SD stocks are under 50/200 day MA's and I am looking  to buy if/when they recover. Failure here would be catastrophic for markets worldwide!

This is MD as of 8/16/2013.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,xom,GOOG,BRK/B,MSFT,JNJ,GE,WMT,CVX,WFC,PG,chl|B|P5,3,3
Of note - AAPL took top spot  for first time since mid-2012. RDS is replaced by CHL, they are very close together, but RDS is recently disqualified.  XOM took a hit under 200 and 50ma.
XOM, GOOG, MSFT, WMT, CVX, RDS are all under 50dma, and BRK is right on it.

This is SD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?rds/b,ptr,hbc,tm,ibm,jpm,pfe,t,bhp,nvs,ko,bbl|B|P5,3,3
RDS, PTR, IBM, T, BHP are disqualified.  JPM, PFE, HBC, NVS, KO are under or at 50dma.  BBL and BHP is the same company, with BBL just a bit over 200dma. Second Dozen is basically poop.
MD+ 8/16/2013
BTFT positions: (3 available slots)
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?BRK/B,CVX,GE,GOOG,JNJ,PFE,TM,wfc,xom|B|P5,3,3
XOM, GOOG, CVX  - liquidate or by-pass. These from MD.

Available - AAPL, PG, CHL, HBC(from SD)

S12T has XOM (blown all stops and out of PP) and WFC. Looking to add all available and also BRK, GE, JNJ.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,PG,CHL,HBC,BRK/B,GE,JNJ|B|P5,3,3


Saturday, July 13, 2013

System 12 Re-Start

I received additional money for main (LB) account. Last time I was running System 12 as Back-Test-Forward-Test (BTFT), meaning I was transitioning paper trades of running Back Test into real money positions in main account. I did it in two ways: Main Account positions where taken opportunistically at my discretion, while OX paper trades where open all at once on 1/28/2013. Less than a month later Main Account run out of money.
I wrote here: http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/02/battle-of-1510es.html
I may liquidate remaining S12T positions - I was right, I was getting ahead of myself, but the problem is not expectancy of System 12. The problem is under-capitalization.
 Main Account about break-even on these System12 Transition (S12T) even without completion of all.
OX paper trade account was abandoned on 3/21/2013, following that no stop losses where taken. Today it has 11 positions with 3 losers - FMX, IBM and ORCL, all would be stopped out long ago per rules of System12. Still total gain is a bit over 1 unit size, and that is Great!

First step is to make BTFT current, make adjustments in OX paper account. I am very concerned about starting S12T now, as I view this market as very dangerous and expecting sudden drop, even bear market.


This is how it looks now. Big jump is because of gap in data from 3/22 to 7/11/2013.
Chart resumes on 7/12/2013.

BTFT positions:
FMX,  ORCL to be liquidated per rules. IBM has to be too, but I will put stop at 190.
Also FMX is #175 now! ORCL is #30.
 NVS to be liquidated on trailing stop (#22)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?brk/b,cvx,fmx,ge,goog,ibm,jnj,nvs,orcl,pfe,tm|B|P5,3,3

This is MD:  I have BRK, CVX, GE, GOOG, JNJ
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,AAPL,GOOG,MSFT,BRK/B,WMT,JNJ,GE,CVX,PG,WFC,RDS/B|B|P5,3,3
AAPL is disqualified, can be replaced by IBM (I have in BTFT)
RDS just crossing 50dma, can be temporarily replaced by PFE/TM (I have in BTFT)

 This is SD: I have IBM, PFE, TM, NVS
IBM, PTR, CHL, BHP are disqualified.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IBM,PTR,CHL,JPM,PFE,TM,HBC,T,KO,NVS,BHP,C|B|P14,3,3
MD+ Screen 7/15/2013

I am re-starting System 12 gradually.
BTFT has 1 available slot on Monday, and will have 2 more on Tuesday after FMX and ORCL are gone. I have 1 week Positioning Period (PP) to replace these and will take same trades in Main Account.
Here are available candidates: XOM,MSFT,WMT,PG,WFC in this order.
The rest of them (BRK, CVX, GE, GOOG, JNJ) are MD stocks that I already have in BTFT, and need to buy for Main Account S12T on some kind of reaction.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,MSFT,WMT,PG,WFC,BRK/b,CVX,GE,GOOG,JNJ|B|P5,3,3
WFC and MSFT are little extended, but really they all look good. Watch earnings coming up.
BOT:
7/15 - WFC 43.29
7/18 - XOM 94.13  Accidentally, I bought 19sh instead of 16.


Lose Yourself to mechanical system.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Positions

Geomagnetic Storm continues for forth day non-stop. Its felt all around.
I received new funds for main account (LB). Now I should have enough money to run System 12 with single unit size, which is half of my standard position size.
I also got a new account (Z) to manage. Its very small, but has dual purpose. About 20% to be invested in Marijuana stocks, with the rest (only 3 full positions size) into dividend and interest producing instruments.

This is one helluva rally since June 24 bottom 1560SPX, up 100 points and getting overbought.
Is this a new structural bull market that will last for 20 years? That's what everybody is talking about.
I still have doubts.

BOT:
7/5 - DDD 46.61 Half pos. Wanted to get it for a long time, but always miss a good entry point. Want more.
7/8 - FB 24.67 Half pos. Its like 5th time I buy it in 25 area.
7/10 - TBT 76.50 1Full pos. Adding to half pos, now I have 1.5 - too much - and it doesn't look good at close.
7/10 - DDD 47.89 Half pos. Adding on a way up.
7/10 - AMPL 18.02 Also in new Z account.
7/12 - TZA 26.19 Half pos of 3x short if IWM. May add more. Looking for 2-3 days down to under 100IWM.
7/19 - NM 5.73 Adding half pos on a way up. Now i have full pos on.

SLD:
7/17 - TZA 25.62 Stop out for small loss - getting run over by bulls. Next time using TWM (2x short Russel2000) for less leverage and uniformity of positions.
7/18 - SRS 19.42 Sold way past any reasonable stop for 8.5% loss.
7/18 - SDS 36.89  Half stop-out.

7/15 - dividends received CCJ, PGH
7/19 - dividends received RGLD

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,NM,TK,TBT,VNM,AMLP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,BAL,JJG,SDS,SRS,TZA,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,DDD,FB,SCTY|B|P5,3,3

Positions with cost basis size. (including commissions)
 JJG   1.03    This is my 3rd time going for grains from this post(link) . Since 1/8/2013 I only lost money on it, current position down 5%. I am being stubborn. Watching 48  for support.-- sliced thru it on 7/24, now watching for reaction. We are in or around 3-year lows on grains and all agriculture (via DBA).
BAL  0.55    I first bought Cotton at 56-57 in March, and lost 10% with exit 51.66 on 5/23 here(link). Ultimately support 50 held and 55 was retaken, and weekly chart still looks good. Then I bought Half pos size for 54.58 on 7/3 here(link) to see if I can trade it quicker, but maybe I not going to have to. Being right and loosing money... Hmm.... PFTargets on both sides, but longer term still 89

 NM  0.94  ER 8/19.  P/E 4!  P/B 0.49! My main concern was very high volume 10%+ moves since May 20. Makes it impossible to have a close stop, but it held nicely sideways, although with some Volume Profile (VP) deterioration.  PFT (5.40 met); 6.55; 7 and 7.50
TK 0.94   ER 8/5. Bot on 6/17 for 40.11. That was late stage breakout that failed on 2nd day, since then recovered. Possibly trending LVM, with some of the lowest Volatility in Main Account 1.62%W; 1.88%M. Need to go to 42 to confirm. Cluster of upside PFTargets 43; 45.75; 49, followed by 58.50.
Shippers are a strong group that nobody is talking about, even with BDI on a rise. Here is more: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TGP,TOO,TDW,GMLP,CKH,CMRE,STNG,DSX,drys|C|C20

 FNV 1.05  ER 8/7amc
GDX 1.49
RGLD 0.57  ER 8/8bmo
SIL   0.53
SLV  0.97
TRX 0.51  8.7% of float short. SR 19!

AMLP 0.96
CCJ 1.06  ER 8/1bmo. No shorts. On a weekly chart its a box 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom. Good VP. Generally anything north of 16 is ok with me, but for now I see support 21-20.50; my stop 19.75. If hit will look to pick a bottom of that box.
DDD 1.03  ER 7/30bmo.  27% of float short! SR 5.7
FB 0.50 ER 7/24amc.  No shorts.
EWJ 1.02
FSCHX 0.5
SCTY 0.51  ER 8/5.  17% of float short, but SR only 1.8. Price stands at 70% above 200dma and up 350% from 52W low - BEWARE!
TSCO  1.15 ER 7/24amc. I think its a confirmed trending LVM, with 2.09%Weekly and 2.22%Monthly volatility.
VNM  0.52.   If 18 is lost, I have to be out.

SDS    0.92
SRS  1.06  First I shorted Real Estate on 6/19 here(link) and stopped out with small loss. Then I took failed breakout on 7/3 here(link). Then it gaped past my Close stop above 67IYR on 7/11 and I exited only to buy it back next day at exactly same price. Effectively, SRS has 21.21 cost basis and a complete clasterfuck.
TBT  1.57
TZA 0.53

Incidentally, JJG, all gold and short positions would be disqualified under rules of System12 (under 200dma); also VNM, while barely qualified, still would not be available (under 50dma).

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Europe

Europe - the Old World.  All the talk on Tee-Vee and on Internets has been about some kind of crisis in Europe for years and years. Nobody seems to mention that actually Europe as a whole IS the biggest economy in the World. Add England or not makes no difference.

The amount and quality of pure science and innovation from EU, GB and also Russia is just staggering. From life changing projects like Large Hadron Collider to life-saving endeavors like SynBio and HSCI , Europe is moving ahead regardless of what politicians and bankers do.
This Biotechnology Boom we are enjoying here is States over past couple of years is ALL based on science that came out of Germany and Russia since 2011. Innovation is the process of converting inventions into invoices, but new scientific discovery is necessary first. Old World governments are heavily invested  in science, and kept commitments even thru financial crisis.

I was thinking long and hard about politics and economics of  European region. There is alot going on - good and bad, but while it all makes for a great cocktail-hour conversation, I don't find this way of thinking productive, pertaining to investing in Europe.

Biggest European ETF's :
VGK has lowest expense ratio 0.12%, followed by  FEZ 0.29%, others are 0.5 to 0.7 (GREK)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?VGK,FEZ,IEV,EZU,EWG,EWU,EWL,EWI,EWQ,EWD,EWP,grek|B|P5,3,3
Emerging Europe, Russia and some others
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ESR,GUR,RSX,RBL,ERUS,RUSS,TUR,EPOL,EWN,NORW,GXF,EWO|B|P5,3,3

Looking at these charts today, I don't see anything good to buy.
Actually, it seems that Europe is fucked (again).
Sigh...

Saturday, July 6, 2013

MLP

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) own and operate natural gas and crude oil pipelines and storage tanks, and periodically distribute their cash flow to investors, resulting in 5% and over yields.

Here is a nice article from 2012 :
http://etfdb.com/2012/guide-to-mlp-etfs-and-etns/
Of interest:
AMJ and AMLP are the biggest
MLPL is 2x-leveraged of AMPL (also similar to MLPI)
YMPL   in addition to holding royalty trusts and energy  firms, YMLP also makes allocations to companies involved in marine transportation and the production and marketing of other natural resources including timber and fertilizers.
 MLPG is mostly nat gas
EMLP is actively managed

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AMJ,AMLP,MLPI,MLPL,MLPN,YMlp,MLPW,MLPY,MLPG,MLPA,EMLP|B|P5,3,3
AMLP pf targets 19.55 and 20.50
AMJ pf target is 59.40, but now it seems to target 43.  Tried to buy on 7/9, but got this message: " This security is restricted from online opening trades or restricted to closing trades only." What...?
MLPL targets 78ish
MLPN targets 36ish
Overall its 20% up from here for this group. I will be looking to get 2 out of 4 above sometimes next week.

Finviz doesn't have much info, and none for AMEX listed etf's (YMLP, MLPA, EMLP) . Here sorted by liquidity. Note that leveraged MLPL is the best performer with highest yield.










Thursday, July 4, 2013

Africa

Africa - the next Frontier.
Presently everything there is in bear market. Egypt (EGPT) rallied 20% in 5 days on military coup.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EEM,AFK,NGE,EZA,EGPT,GULF,MES,GAF,EEME,FM,FRN,PMNA|B|P5,3,3
GULF and  MES concentrated in Kuwait, UAE and Qatar with different allocation
GAF is Africa+Middle East
EEME is SA+Russia
The only way to get into Mali is AFK.
All these have very high exp ratio.
Welcome addition is Nigeria NGE. If i could invest in their bonds at 15% - that would be nice.

 AFK country breakdown:
Nigeria 24.84%
South Africa 24.68%
United Kingdom 17.40%
Egypt 14.33%
Morocco 9.87%
Canada 4.00%
Norway 2.56%
Kenya 1.30%
Australia 1.12%




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmJBCMPtiNE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcKDXdgYe9I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XV6ow-NO0nw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmic5Ai5EZk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7V5ubZSJFo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k51npBxKH2g

Following from Wikipedia:

Sub-Saharan Africa is, geographically, the area of the continent of Africa that lies south of the Sahara. Politically, it consists of all African countries that are fully or partially located south of the Sahara (excluding Sudan).[2] It contrasts with North Africa, which is considered a part of the Arab world. Somalia, Djibouti, Comoros and Mauritania are geographically part of Sub-Saharan Africa, but also part of the Arab world.[3][4]
The Sahel is the transitional zone between the Sahara and the tropical savanna (the Sudan region) and forest-savanna mosaic to the south.

........................AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT........................
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/HDImap_spectrum2006_Africa.png
 UN Human Development Index (HDI) for 2004, derived from 2006 UN HDI report. An HDI below 0.5 is considered to represent low development and an HDI 0.8 or more is considered to represent high development.

For an exact list of countries by their HDI, see the List of countries by Human Development Index
   0.950 and over
   0.900-0.949
   0.850-0.899
   0.800-0.849
    0.750-0.799

   0.700-0.749
   0.650-0.699
   0.600-0.649
   0.550-0.599
   0.500-0.549
   0.450-0.499
   0.400-0.449
   0.350-0.399
   0.300-0.349
   under 0.300
   n/a              
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHINA in AFRICA
100bil in investments. Are Chinese taking over Africa without a single shot fired, or is it the best example of hard-core capitalism. IMHO there is nothing wrong with either scenario.
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/453060
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE 10/23/2013
AFRICAN OIL  - Nigeria here again
http://www.zerohedge.com  /news/2013-10-23/guest-post-scramble-africas-oil

---------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE 1/2/2014
More investment ideas, Ghana, African mutual funds and more:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/getting-into-west-africas-frontier-market-2013-12-20





Friday, June 28, 2013

Flip-Flopping

SLD:
6/27 - ZSL  110.17  Half out at +30%
6/27 - TBT  73.48  Half out 10% profit
6/27 - SRS  21.07 Small loss again. How do I manage to take small losses on a short of weakest group. Not good at-all!
QID - 23.48 Scratch at B/E. I find it confusing to short QQQ - first its leading than its lagging SPX. I find IWM price action much easier to read. At the moment IWM is strongest, trying to get atop of all ma's on daily chart.
6/28 - ZSL 103.32 All out
6/28 - NIB 28.44 Stopped out on lowest print. Damn. I would rebuy it right back, if all commodities where not so weak. Generally speaking I think softs need to be traded differently - hit and run, don't sit thru corrections. Specifically, both NIB and BAL where in profit at some point, but end up stopped at loss. The only problem with this - how do I hook a big trend?

BOT:
6/28 - SLV 18.75 Half pos. Now I have 1 full position.
6/28 - GDX 23.98 Half pos. Now I have 1.5 pos size.
6/28 - SCTY 37.75 Half pos
7/2 - VNM 19.30 Half pos. I think its a strongest of all Emerging Markets, very close to last support.
7/3 - SRS 21.21 Re-enter at higher price. IYR is breaking down again below 20dma. Close stop above recent high 67.10(IYR)
7/3 - BAL 54.58 Half pos. Lets see if I can trade it quicker.

Yesterday  NYSE A/D hit highest intraday reading of all 2013. Nazdaq is not far behind.
Overall A/D was a poor indicator since May top - it keeps flip-flopping.
Four days ago it signaled a bear market and crash warning.
As of yesterday it gives all clear to bulls, correction is over.
That's summer market for you
I intend to do very little, if nothing at-all until after holiday.

Market is not out of the woods yet. Its presently in 1610-1620SPX  resistance, then gap-fill ~1630, then 1650 bull trap (that caught me here (link)). Weekly is painting a hammer again at support 20wma. Daily is not a bad rally off 1560 low, with gaps everyday making it hard to buy. Internals improving sharply.  I really have to consider that this is a buyable dip, but I will hold off all new purchases because I am being whipped around too much. Concerning is big selling on close every day for weeks with Market-On-Close (MOC) sell imbalances (per Mr TopStep).  
There is a ton of support starting with 1598SPX.

Astrology Traders report on recent high solar activity here:
http://www.zentrader.ca/blog/?p=19877
"On June 28th a geomagnetic storm began, at its peak the storm sparked Northern Lights across the US as far south as Kansas....The key dates I have mentioned were April 6, 2013, September 18, 2013, and September 28, 2013. "

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Ci Sara

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes....somebody said.
The reason why I am fixated a bit on this kind of top is because of a treacherous nature of it. How fast a pullback of a strong bull market turns into failure. Look at it - only few days to sell, before "window is the only way out". If you don't have discipline, if you don't have a plan - you don't stand a chance.
OTOH some tops take time to distribute, to chop for months, like 1999-2000, following slow drift down. This will give people some time, although outcome is the same - it will not be so dramatic for participant's psychology.
I believe this is fractal, and observed on multiple time-frames.
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=36635
1987
2013
  I remember summer 2011, like it was yesterday. 40 down, then another 60 down reversing and painting hammer, then 80 down. I lost it. Terror...
I learned alot about myself then, using these lessons now (I think)

 Just looking at all asset classes (except Dollar) go down together, I had a scary thought:
Can you imagine a bear market like this, with no place to hide, lasting for months and months?
Don't think its impossible

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,NM,TK,TBT|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,NIB,JJG,SDS,QID,SRS,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,ZSL|B|P5,3,3
FSCHX(CEX) 2/3pos;   NM, SLV, TRX, SIL, RGLD half-pos

Main1
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$SPX,$COMPQ,QQQ,IWM,EFA,EEM,$TNX,UUP,GLD,USO,GCC|B|P5,3,3
S&P Sectors+
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLY,ibb,gdx|B|P5,3,3

Watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?TSLA,PGH,XHB,XLK,FB,DDD,YELP,ANGI,GSVC,ULTI,tan,scty|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?PALL,GOLD,PPP,LODE,Bal,GAGA,ANFI,LNN,MON,sea,tnk,stng|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SEA,kex,tgp,too,TDW,CKH,SSW,MATX,STNG,DRYS,DSX,ckh|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

While everything is oversold together on daily time-frame, I remember the same right before 2011 summer crash. Assuming there is a bounce, SPX is sitting right on 100dma and 20wma with bunch of support levels below, but 1610-1620SPX needs to be taken first. How long will it take, will it be enough - remains to be seen, but TTheory Vol Osc and My A/D Indicator made lower lows and both remain in bear market territory, Volume Profile deteriorated as expected, and I have 3ptPF Target of 1470SPX.
Bradley Turn Date is 6/22, full moon 6/23, solar activity is on a rise again.

................................IN THE NEWS.....................

Its like this: economic news are all good or better than good, and seems to indicate continuing growth in USA and not in China. All other news are all negative and there are alot of them. Looks like they dig out every piece of nasty news, even dust off some old ones, so whatever your preference is - there is a negative story to worry about. This all nonsense of-course and I am trying to stay away from madness, besides I don't see anything critically important at the moment. It is customary for a big crisis to present itself after markets collapse somewhat, unfortunately profit opportunities are limited by the time reasons are known.


Ci sara’ - una storia d'amore e un mondo migliore.
Ci sara' - un azzurro piu' intenso e un cielo piu' immenso.
Ci sara' - la tua ombra al mio fianco vestita di bianco.
Ci sara' - anche un modo piu' umano per dirsi ti amo di piu'.


 There will be – a love story and a better world
There will be – sky-blue more intense and a sky more immense
There will be – your shadow by my side dressed in white
There will be – also a world more human for to say I love you the most

Friday, June 21, 2013

Op Ex Day

Yesterday I noted here http://evilspeculator.com/?p=36635#disqus_thread
 Everything is down together (stocks, bonds, silver, oil)
No place to hide
Year of Cicadas...lol

All my A/D indicators are at "last stand" line.
In recent past it led to hard V-type reversal.
If fails, SPX will have a 14xx handle by Monday

BOT:
6/19 - SRS 21.34  Double-short Real Estate (IYR)
I tried to short RE before, but it was too strong and stopped me out. May 22 was the top, and it went straight down without giving me an entry until today - on reaction to 20dma, double inside day breakdown and sto cross. Considering how far and fast it fallen, I can't figure out the target and will play it day-by-day.
6/20 - QID 23.51 After a fake-our breakout, when I stopped out only 2 days ago, this double-short QQQ is back on. Watching 72QQQ area for reaction.

SLD:
6/20 - XHB 29.54
6/20 - TSLA - 101.80   Tesla was holding fine until today. Poor price action midday. Exit. I need to stay away from TSLA forawhile.
6/20 - PGH 4.82 On stop. Looking for reentry.
6/20 - FB 23.83  For few months I  see accumulation in intraday price action, and expecting bottom to be made, but may be at lower levels still. 24-25 is strong resistance area, also where 200dma is.
6/21 - XLK 30.53

...........................................IN THE NEWS......................................
Obama fires Bernanke on live TV on Charlie Rose program.
Riots in Turkey and Brazil - something about benefits, economy etc. not sure
China's interest rates explode, they doing cash injection into some banks.
Obama and Putin where suppose to have disarmament talks, its seems to fell thru. I guess nuke recycling agreement is a toast. Can't find any info anywhere. Maybe there is hope for uranium industry, represented by CCJ.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Fed Day

             I have no clue whatsoever about how market will react to whatever Fed say today. I am 100% sure that whatever price action unfolds  will be attributed to whatever Fed say today. I continue to completely disregard any theories about cost and effect of QE, including their current operations and/or future plans, regardless of whatever Fed say today. Based on price action in US Treasuries, my profits in TBT and $TYX up 39% since summer 2012 - Fed lost control of at-least long term yields and bonds are in bear market, making whatever Fed say today irrelevant.

            Internal indicators show relief of overbought conditions across the board, no apparent divergences. All advance-decline studies show rising bottoms, will levels at or around zero. There is definitely room to upside. TTheory Volume Oscillator seems to have at-least short range T  with projected peak 2-3 weeks away.

          I was comparing My A/D Indicator based on NYSE vs usual Nazdaq - it seems that $NYAD gives cleaner signal with less whipsaw around zero level. It just crossed 0 going up.

          I am fully prepared to see market completely collapse here. It will cost me some, but I know what to do, and I know how big rewards are when I do it right. Watch

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Non - Delta Neutral

BOT:
XLK - 31.92  Support 31.50, stop under 31. Technology is one of strongest sectors, but i don't have any techies.
ZSL - 85.35 Full position of double-short Silver to hedge. Close stop - if silver doesn't collapse here, it doesn't collapse at-all.

SLD:
TZA - 30.57
QID - 22.52
HDGE - 15.98
All sold at large loss, aka puke. Market (via SPX) corrected about 5%, which is a normal correction in bull market. I have PF target for SPX 1746, no divergences, and weekly chart looks like legit buy point for at-least few weeks rally. 5 week EMA of SPX is 1639, I see it as a line between UP and ??? For now market is not going down, so I have no business to hold shorts. It may change fast - then I will change.

I dropped all short hedges except double-size position SDS. Mainly I am pretty tired of seeing all my profits from long positions being wiped out by shorts, including degenerates from HDGE. Specifically about HDGE- I understand certain fundamental criteria makes stocks seems overvalued, but price has to go down too. Theirs don't.

S&P500 closed above 1650 and just a couple of points above June double-bottom high. Whether its a true break-out or not, in most purist technical sense - we have a series of higher lows and now higher highs, hence the trend changed to up. Close below 50dayMA or most recent lows will invalidate this trend change.
A triangle from late May is also busted, besides it never made it to target, which makes this market stronger or so it seems. I am not much sure about anything, especially until tomorrow - FOMC day, that is why I kept SDS (double-short S&P) and in size.

When market next collapses, it may be a big one. I think I get it by now - how things work that is - I don't see present investors keeping any gains, if history can be used as a guide. I have seen a lot of history.

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,NIB,JJG,SDS,EWJ,PGH,CCJ,FB,TSCO,xlk,zsl|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,NM,TK,TBT,XHB,TSLA|B|P5,3,3
FSCHX(CEX) 2/3pos;   NM, PGH, SLV, TRX, SIL, RGLD half-pos

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iyr,ibb,vnm,hao,pgj,sea,tnk,tk,stng,bal,gaga,kol|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xle,oih,fcx,ige,xlb,bas,ura,mcp,pio,lnn,tan,scty|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xlk,gsvc,ddd,yelp,angi,imax,rst,dva,gasx,faz|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?gold,hl,pvg,pplt,pall,ppp,lode,goro,agi|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?WETF,AMBA,GTAT,YGE,IMMR,HOV,USG,MTU,nmr,yelp,anfi,fro|B|P5,3,3

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Positions

BOT:
5/30 - FB 24.19 Possible island reversal at lower 25 and 100 BBands. Stop under 23.90

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,BAL,NIB,JJG,QID,SDS,HDGE,SCO,OIH,imax,fb|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,TNK,NM,TBT,mcp,lysdy,trer|B|P5,3,3

Position groups with most recent position size, includes gain/loss and commissions. 70% invested in 30 positions.  Average position size 

BAL 1.08 - Failed at 50dMA. Support zone 52-53, if fails will create H&S top. More support down to 50. Weekly chart looked great, like a  buyable dip, but needs to go over 55 asap to stay so. PFTargets: 51.50; longer term 89
JJG   0.51
NIB  1.03 - Cocoa started on Mar 15, 2013 in this post (link), I bot on 3/20 and 28.  Support 29-30 and holding fine on weekly and daily. I may add some if going to get a weekly buy signal.   PFT 37; 56
MON 1.08 - Loss of momentum persists, but  weakness on VP is gone. Still it stall in 105-108 range and seems to rolling over on daily and weekly. Support 105, and more 97.50-98.50. I'm thinking of stepping aside and reloading at support levels.  PFT 98.50; 111; 133
TSCO 0.56

DRYS 0.36
NM  0.42  My main concern is very high volume 10%+ moves since May 20. Makes it impossible to have a close stop.  PFT (5.40 met); 6.55; 7 and 7.50
TNK 0.55  Support 2.8 and 2.6.   PFT 3.35 and 4.32, but it has to get thru 200dma at around 3.11 and falling.
5/30/2013 SOLD TNK @ 2.89 on close stop below 3-day low. (+16% on half-position size).  It looked weak throut the day. Looking to reenter in support around 2.6

FNV 0.41
GDX 0.37
RGLD 0.43
SIL   0.41
SLV  0.37
TRX 0.46

FSCHX 0.68
IMAX
OIH   1.07
SCO  0.48
TBT    1.09
TSLA  0.60

HDGE 0.94
QID    0.74
SDS    1.79


Monday, May 20, 2013

Agony of Perma-Bear. Or is it?

This Irregular small VO T 4/2013 will run out in about a week. I sketched it first almost a month ago in this post (link) . There is absolutely nothing beyond that, as far as T Theory goes. Mostly all of internal divergences are gone, and aside from everything being overbought and obnoxiously bullish - there are absolutely no indication of immediate market top.
        I am a Perma Bear. I don't generally trade like this, I've been mostly long or all long for years, while trying to pick important market tops along the way. How can one reconcile being long and Bearish on everything at the same time? Would it be better to suspend forecasting and just "trade set-ups"? Rubbish.
        Only people who been not paying attention to recent events, only people who don't care to think, only those why are busy chasing little dot up and down a screen - only those don't understand that financial markets are a total fucking scam. The only people who realize what is hidden behind a curtain are those who made money in markets, then lost it, than made it again, over and over until enough experience accumulated, lessons learned and independence earned by virtue of losing money. Call it tuition, call it play money or sacrifice to Market Gods - all the same. The only way to find out what works is to try it, and if it works long enough..., well .... I've been trading basically the same methodology for years, because it makes money on a money. System 9 Lite took it first trades almost 10 years ago, although back then it was System 5, followed by 6 and 7 - all of these are basically the same thing gradually getting  better.
        My generally very Bearish views are based on the facts that things are not what presented on Tee-Vee, in reality (where I live) everything is much-much worse, and not getting improved at all. Quite the opposite. Unless this objective reality will start to reflect some of  excitement of financial markets; or until stocks come into agreement with real downward wealth spiral (worldwide) - I will remain Perma-Bear, hopeful that change will come, but doing what I have to do for now.
         Absolutely THE biggest danger I see is a remote but catastrophic possibility of some kind of internet outage, combined with blackouts, massive hacker attacks and all kinds of problems that have to do with communications. The best investment anybody can make is to put aside enough cash to cover monthly expenses, keep it at home, with your gun, passport and bottled water. Can't say the same about  markets. Stop? How is stop will get triggered if internet is down? Can one expect to be able to get out in front of millions of traders, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, all of whom seemingly have the same risk controls? That is exactly how 1987 and Flash Crash of 2010 happened.
        I sold all of mine long term System 1 positions over a month ago (all except VWINX), because I know that unless I sell when I can, I will be selling what I can, and not on favorable terms. System 1 never had a losing year. System 9 was down over 30% in 2008, and down about 15% in 2011, but always recovered and made new high. My main System 9 Lite account is down 1-2% off its high right now, and I sleep like a baby.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE 12/22/2013
This documentary came out in September 2013, but I first saw it in December.
It eco's many of mine concerns and views, although I am much less socialistic.
 FOUR HORSEMEN is an award winning independent feature documentary which lifts the lid on how the world really works.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fbvquHSPJU


Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,BAL,NIB,JJG,QID,SDS,HDGE,MON,TSCO,sco,oih|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,drys,tnk,nm,tbt|B|P5,3,3
Also MJNA, HEMP, PHOT, MDBX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

Watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iyr,fb,imax,scty,DDD,SSYS,YELP,ANGI,PGH,FCX,VNM,REMX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ura,ccj,ppp,scco,lode,jo,lnn,hao,eza,cvv,entg|B|P5,3,3
Chinese crap from Fly:  SUTR, XIN, EJ

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Solar Cycle Maximum

We got all kinds of good stuff in this United States government, you know...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a Space Weather Prediction Center http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/. Their forecast for end of May - beginning of June is actually mild :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with moderate activity likely and a chance for high
activity levels throughout the forecast period. 

Latest Sunspot number predictionStill we had 3 X-Class flares in a row and more expected over next couple of days. I noticed how high solar activity and solar storms affected mass-psychology last year, but now I am taking notes. Some people will become over-active, talk too loud, show inadequate response to common stressers, while others will suffer from headaches, be tired and fatigued, and painfully annoyed by "crazies". I've seen this behavior during late spring - early summer 2012, and it coincided with increase in Solar activity. Correlation doesn't mean causation, but SPX lost almost 200 points during that period. Notable increase was in mid 2012 alongside 20%+ market drop, but pales in comparison to 2000-2002 period.

To further aggravate matters, Solar Cycle is expected to reach its maximum just about now.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008..., solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013.
Solar Cycles maximums generally coincide with market peaks, but not exactly to the day. Basically if there are some problems out there they will be exacerbated by increase in solar activity, but I wouldn't bet the farm on this one piece of the puzzle.

Some astrology from Raj - there is a certain Mars alignment that happened every time market crashed big. Mars opposite Rahu (exact) = 9/14/01! = 10/12/87! = 10/24/29!
 Its not a rare Mars aspect (happens every 1-2years), and it already happened yesterday on 5/13/2013, while market continues to rip higher. Last similar setup happened on 1/24/2013 and was a miss.
 http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/05/mars-and-dragon.html

Lastly on a menu of voodoo science is a new collection on fine T's.
I continue to study T Theory of Terry Laundry and decided to look back more than I did in latest Internals Study here (link). Below are classic T Theory Short Range T's, based on Volume Oscillator.
        Blue T8/2011 has Cash Build-Up Phase of over a year, and resolved very nicely in October of last year. Interesting phenomenon is a break of trend line in summer 2011 - a nasty bull trap I remember all too well, denoted by yellow oval. Do we have same condition now? Time will tell, besides I don't know if its a valid approach.
       Green T6/2012 has questionable Cash Build-Up Phase, and ended as a dud. Both T's have SPX rising on a left side of center-post, which is unnatural. Also the beginning of Cash Build-Up (initial spike) price area was retested going into center-post of new T in both cases. I doubt very much that I would recognize either T in real time, but following this logic I can see a new Red T setting up.
       Implications are: big drop is imminent targeting 1400 SPX area, followed by rally into 2014


Small VO T's from 4/29/2013

Monday, May 13, 2013

New Moon

....developing....

New moon was 2 days ago, Solar is active non-stop with 2 M-Class flares last week and X-Class today. We are going to get fried down here, if there is no respite sometime soon.

           Planting starts this week, although its still 40's at night. If we don't plant now - there is not going to be any harvest anyway. I don't fertilaze, but I can't see what choice farmers will have. POT, MOS or bust, but I need a dip to buy. Grains are not looking very promising, but I opened half size JJG on possible double-bottom with some volume profile improvement. Its quite possible that I will buy more at lower price.
          Finviz has 2 groups I know nothing about - Farm products and Food Major, of which I have some in my watch list. Fly just went long ANFI - a 300mil Food-Major out of Emirates- I don't see this as good entry. Many talking about water stocks, but LNN is in a process of retesting a double top neckline (its a pretty big January-April double top). I was looking at GAGA - horrible looking chart of profitable largest greenhouse vegetable producers in China. The seems to be changing some things that may improve the situation, plus I am interested in everything China.

Of interest to me are:
DRYS here and above 1.90;
REMX, LYSDY and all main Rare Earths on some kind of dip, also URA, CCJ and Uranium group
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IYR,DDD,SSYS,SODA,YELP,ANGI,MDBX,PGH,FCX,VNM,drys,remx|B|P5,3,3


Watch-List Cleaner
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/04/watch-list-cleaner.html

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Gold Digger

From all gold-miners around the world -  these are profitable, trade over 200k per day, and priced over $1.Sorted by advance from 50 day low, which is still April Crash low
Here are what I think the best charts from above list, plus 3 silver miners with similar metrics.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GDX,IAG,FNV,GORO,NGD,GOLD,PPP,AUY,GG,HL,SLW,AG|B|P5,3,3
 From looking at these charts I would never guess that these are profitable companies, paying dividends, with decent institutional ownership, with low debt and almost no short interest.

Another list I put together couple of weeks ago. I don't remember how I picked these, but PPP is in it again.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOLD,AGI,NSU,AZK,PPP,DRD,LODE,KGJI,MGN,FCX,scco,azc|B|P5,3,3


Sunday, May 5, 2013

Adaptive Channels

I continue to study work of late Terry Laundry, and finally got to recreating of his "adaptive channels". Terry used some kind of his own formula of price channels around 55 day moving average (MA) and 39 week MA. I noticed on his plots that while upper boundary contained almost all of price tops, but lower boundary failed often and especially so during bear markets. By no means his channels are a holy grail, but they seems to be more useful for analysis than Bolinger Bands (BBands), mainly because adaptive channels don't expand hugely after big price move.
I was able to recreate something closely resembling his Adaptive Channels using Keltner Channel around 50day EMA, with boundaries of 4 times 100-period ATR on daily chart of SPX.

At the same time I wanted to continue this notion from previous post about extreme distance of price from important MA's. Here I have a percentage difference between price and 5, 50 and 200 EMA. (Note: I don't like to use exponential averages, but couldn't find an option with simple MA for this study. Besides, difference between the two is usually negligible and disappears during strong trend, like what we have now).
Visibly none of them is extreme. I think it will be worthwhile to follow 200 (plotted on bottom panel), as it picks the same extremes as 50 (2nd panel from bottom)), but with less noise. Right now its pushing 10%, which is a sufficient level for price top, like in spring and again in fall of 2012. The only danger to this analysis is that indicator can embed in 10%+ range like in early 2011 (green rectangle), and continue to hug upper envelope for weeks.

Does it mean exhaustion of prevailing trend? Time will tell

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Winding Top

BOT:
5/1 - IMAX 25.85 Half pos. It seems to hold 25-26 support level. I sold it on bad reaction to earnings on 4/25 at about same price, and took a loss off  27.74 original purchase price. Same plan as before : Looking to add on strength above 27 and eventually 28.     PFT 33; 37; 43.50

SLD:
5/1 - SCTY 27.93 Final 1/4 out (+38% on this one!) My target was 28.50, it almost got there today. I don't think its a top, but I wanted to go back into IMAX without increasing invested amount (little less than 50% of account invested atm)

Watch List:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IYR,DDD,SSYS,SODA,YELP,ANGI,WDAY,MDBX,PGH,TNK,fcx,vnm|B|P5,3,3

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The S&P futures fell like a winding top about to explode upward!!!
Said  Danny Riley of  MrTopStep

All the talk is about 1600SPX and higher. How high? There are all kind of numbers, even as high as 1750. What happened to downside? Are we ever going to correct again?
       Look at monthly chart. Yes, it can go up more. Is it a low risk entry? NO.
       Sto is pushing overbought, but price can push a bit higher for a month or two. SPY is extended above 10 and 20 months MA almost to extreme degree. I noticed that when its above 20 months MA by about 200SPX points - there is a correction back to aforementioned Moving Averages. It happened without exceptions 5 times in past 10 years. Loss of momentum is evident in MACD, similar to 2007, and volume is relatively stagnant (just like back in late 2006).
       I am not going to look for parallels between then and now. Not only because every top is different, but it just doesn't matter to me. I don't hold positions for years. Having said that, I am not looking to increase my exposure to general stock market at this time, except for occasional "special situation". Aggressive day-trades is a whole different topic.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLY,XLU,IYT,$XAU|B|P5,3,3
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I made this comment on Fly's blog here (link).  Its not new, I made this observation back in February here (link)  and before in November 2012 here (link)

 Let me drop a scandalous thought in the mix:
           This whole time, while market was rallying, everybody agreed that its a “FED induced rally”, backed by endless liquidity. Even my co-workers know that. Liquidity? Please refer to 4/23 mini flash-crash – they mopped that ‘liquidity’ out in less than 5 minutes.
            As for latest QE, I have a variant perception based on TLT and MBB just now getting back to September levels (when this QE supposedly started). 85bil per month should have done more, methinks. I know, I know…. Keep your quotes from “Economics 101″ to yourself, I read the same books.
           My point simply is this: THERE IS NO QE !!!
           Fed ain’t got your back, PPT is on vacation until next elections and liquidity is an illusion.
           Plan accordingly!

PS. What? NY Fed website?
Please, don’t be a child
PPS. Enjoy your summer