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Thursday, February 28, 2013

Panem et Circenses

     What the hell was it yesterday, on 2/27/13?
First of all, it had nothing to do with housing data. Reaction at 10am was timid at best. What happened was a relentless short squeeze, as /ES open interest stood at whooping 3.16mil cars. Can't wait until 9am to see if it gotten smaller - I don't see how people would not cover shorts after this. Now, with late-comer longs already stopped-out, its a time for over-eager shorts to be taken to woodshed. Besides, how can anybody have a directional forecast with gigantic moves on VIX, big-range up and down days, and all political BS on both sides of the pond. Big boys are shaking the tree to see what dislodges, I don't want any part of it.

      I didn't exit QQQ short via QID. Although my stop was above 67Q, I decided to wait a bit. Q's still the weakest of indexes and sold-off heavy right before close. There will be no point of keeping this short above todays high and 67.80. I hate to hedge. Makes me so confused - am I long or short? It's like I am not limiting losses, but guaranty that I loose a bit whichever way the market goes. GRRR... One single position QID gives me so much headache, while GEO pushes into new high. Prisons is a leading industry? Buckweats...

SLD: QID 27.11  -4%
What a horrible mess I made out of this trade. It was all wrong, shorted at the low - covered at the high. What the hell am I thinking? This is not oops, this is bad-bad-bad.. Atleast I did it with 1pos only, so no big damage.

     Which brings me to ongoing Treasure Hunt.
Panem et Circenses is latin for "Bread and Circuses" (or bread and games). Pretty good place to start, considering a peculiar situation with grains and latest legislation about online gaming. Play legal poker online, while high on legal pot and who cares how expensive munchies are...

       Soy via SOYB is ready to go today - strongest of grains. JJG has to be bought back above 53. Cotton via BAL really doesn't belong to this group, but its strongest of all softs, buy above recent high. Although MON has a law-suit going on, hard to argue with its straight. TSCO need to buy asap.

    UPDATE 2/28 AH:
TSCO - 104.10
JJG     -  52.04 Half pos.   I really wasn't suppose to buy it until tomorrow, but all grains where strong in the morning. Put limit order for SOYB, but it was not getting filled. This is my third time going for grains.
BAL run away while I wasn't watching, now need to wait for pullback.
DRYS - 1.98 Half pos. I was staking it ever since breakout in January, with my eyes on 1.8-1.9 level. Needs to hold it.
FB     - 27.19 Half pos. Bot on close. High volume hammer. Last couple of days looked corrective. May be it will not get to 25.
FNV  - 48.36 Half pos
GDX  - 37.40 Half pos.
Damn the torpedoes! No stop for now. Bullish percent miners is at 3 or 4 for a reason - they all are in downtrend. Will watch for a day or two, then add.
I outlined some thoughts on PM and miners in previous post. Today's double bottom was too good to pass-up.  I was keeping an eye an FNV and RGLD. They are not so much miners, but a royalty companies. Last summer they where some of the first to bottom and then rally hard, for whatever the reason

To be sure - I am NOT buying the dip. I'm going into these selected situations, and lightly - most Half Position Size only.

2/27 - MGAM  @ 18.30 half pos

       Pot-trade: I really need to have a detailed look at these companies

More on this later...

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