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Thursday, February 14, 2013

Battle of 1510/ES

The battle lines are drawn - 1510 ES is where its at.
SPX has been riding 5day/ema, with only 2 closes under it since the beginning of the year. The necessary correction...and bla-bla-bla.

Half Point from this post (link) seems to be working out, but missing one important ingredient - no powerful up-move. May be its still ahead. European data came overnight, and its shit - so ES and Euro selling off. Traditional pattern this year - down in the morning, up into close.

They want to raise minimum wage to $9/hour. Finally. I've been pounding the table for past 2 years that only delusional nouveaurish may believe that anybody can survive on 7.25. Living wage? You've got to be fucking shitting me...

I am 100% invested. All long equities, short bonds and Silver. Can't sleep, constant nightmares, wake up drenched in sweat every night. Its not easy. Is it ever?
Here is highest short interest ETF's, aka "People who owe me money":
2/12 - TSCO 103.57 ag-complex
2/12 - RSX 30.33 half pos for emer markets group
2/12 - EWS 13.88 half pos for emer markets group
2/13 - FB 27.76 Half pos
2/14 - FB 28.60 Half pos. Now I have a full position. Trailing close stop. If this turn doesn't hold - FB goes to 25, where I will look to buy it again.

2/11 - FIUIX  19.48 half sold
2/12 - FIUIX 19.48 Utilities all out. Total profit 15.5%.
2/14 - IBM 199.50 (S12T)  $-64.50       Its the weakest of System 12 stocks. Although exit criteria is not met, I am flat out of money and wanted to add to FB, so decided to dump Big Blue at small loss.
2/15 - ZSL 50.60 Half pos out. Silver at support. I have to consider overnight and long weekend risk.
2/15 - FSCHX 125.19 Sold 1pos size, still have 1full pos on. $CEX looks like possible double top. Don't want to hold too much, plus I need money.
2/15 - XLE  78.09  almost B/E (-0.7%)  Don't like intraday action. May be it's OPEX, but there is a problem with oil complex, i just don't know what this problem is.
2/15 - CVX (S12T) 114.19   $-47.75   Same reasons as IBM and XLE
2/15 - CG 35.59 Half of half (1/4size) out. High volume, failure of late-stage intraday breakout. This thing gone parabolic. wow

Note 2/18 - I sold enough, to the point that I can sleep again. And I have almost 3 pos of cash to allocate to TAN, SCTY and possibly add to JJG.
Have some other ideas too - short oil and gas, add to pot-trade on reaction, start graphite. In a process I may liquidate remaining S12T positions - I was right, I was getting ahead of myself, but the problem is not expectancy of System 12. The problem is under-capitalization.

MJNA, HEMP, PHOT entered. AVTC not sure, may buy it again. Total allocation Half pos. Will buy more on dip.
Orders set for half-out at double of entry price.

Note on MJNA:
  It will either breakout in 2-5 days (unlikely) or will go down to 0.3-0.25 in order to stop-out late buyers, who came in on Feb 1st.
People will see 40-50% loss, panic and sell their shares to me.
I'm just a little yellow fruit, and this is how I roll :-)

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