i Bergamot

Monday, April 29, 2013

Internals Study

I am attempting (again) to organize a wide array of market internal indicators I use. The problem is - i have them set-up differently at home, at work and at house-by-the-lake. I still refuse to sigh-up for any subscription, including one to Stockcharts-dot-com, where I would be able to keep them set in their Public Lists. So i need to make them compact, and get rid of weak ones.

Here is another problem: T-Theory Volume Oscillator (18,36MACD of $NYUD) is very confusing to me, especially so when using for T's. I thought its a dead end, but then realized that Im looking at "nested T" - small Volume Oscillator T with center-post at February 25th dip. VO T 2/2013 is about to ran out. Also on same chart: T 11/2012 is the same as BergamotT, but unlike NYMO, Volume Oscillator had a high in mid June and T projected right into Tax-day (give or take a day or two). Green "Irregulat T 4/2013" is missing secondary cash build-up phase and i don't know what to make of it.

This is all fine with benefit of hindsight, and seems to support endless rotation in sectors of S&P. This rotation is increasingly hard to predict and makes for very unhealthy environment, as evident by Confidence Indicator (FAGIX:VUSTX below) still diverging from S&P. This non-confirmation is already big enough, but can get bigger. Golden Indicator also diverging, but this configuration is very unreliable and I decided to ignore it for few weeks/months.

Two studies below deal with Advance/Decline analysis.
McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) is basically 19,39 MACD of Net Advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues on NYSE. I don't know what to make of it at this time, except that its pushing upper BBand, but at relatively low level. Percent of S&P stocks below 50MA shows a well pronounced divergence, as more and more stocks cannot get above their 50day MA. I wasn't watching Utilities, Staples and Healthcare that rallied strongly over past few months, and my watch-lists show disproportionate share of stocks that broke below 50MA and even already in their own bear market. Bullish Percent Index is similar, normally it lags by a month or two.

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My Nasdaq A/D Indicator deals with Net Advances in more straightforward way. Its simply 5day EMA and 20day MA of $NAAD. Shaded area are periods when 20day MA is below 0, during which IWM is weak, and its coming back above 0 right now. Also significant lows where made on lower readings of 20dma than most recent in April. Divergence is visible since beginning of the year, and lately it also shows up in weakness of Nasdaq New High / New Low since March.

So I'm asking myself: Whats the bottom line? Really don't know, with so many negative divergences and internal weakness in SPX, Nasdaq, IWM etc, still market is not breaking down. In fact NYMO and My Naz A/D Indicator (MNA/DI) have room to upside and can support a 5-10% rally on major averages from here and last into end of May (if Irregular T 4/2013 works out).

---------------------------UPDATE-------------------------

Following this post, Market rallied 6-7% and peaked on May 22.

Pretty good analisys....ha-ha

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At last here are two charts I watch intraday. The main version of MNA/DI and VIX. Volatility Index (VIX) looks really strange lately and I give it very little attention.

At close inspection I realized that I use 20 day Exponential MA on MNA/DI and tried to quickly redraw shaded areas in same manner as chart above. I will double check again tonight.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Full Moon

Full Moon, Lunar eclipse, solar is active non-stop every day. All we need is a juicy news story.

SLD:
4/25 - SRS 18.60. ( % loss on Half pos)
4/25 - IMAX 25.95 on earnings. No so much as earnings are bad (I am actually not sure), but it is definitely not a LVM. LowVolatilityMover does't go 4% down and 3% up within one day. Chart is still not bad, I will review it next week. I sold at the top of support zone for ( % loss on Half pos), so far its still low of the day (2:06pm est), volume is very high.
4/25 - SCTY 23.87 This thing is up almost 20%. Selling 1/4 pos on close stop. Still have 1/4pos on.

I will be out of office tomorrow on 26th. Do i set close or far stops?

April 25, 2013
TSCO earnings. Initial sell off sharply reversed. I need to look into what are they doing right.

HDGE is getting killed, many their top holdings reversing sharply to upside. Hopefully its just a short squeeze. I will give them more time, but not much more.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HDGE,DB,TCK,GT,CBT,PVH,FDS,CTL,CMA,FFIV,FITB|B|P5,3,3

HDGE UPDATE 4/29/2013. Top holdings. Added FOSL, COH; dropped FFIV
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HDGE,TCK,GT,CBT,CTL,DB,FDS,CMA,FITB,FOSL,COH,pvh|B|P5,3,3

In the News:

April 24, 2013 - CYBER ATTACKS
“On April 23rd, Schwab was one of the most recent targets of a “denial-of-service” attack perpetrated by a third party. ... Based on the history of denial-of-service attacks on other companies, we anticipate these attacks may continue against our industry – and us – for some time."
Also on 4/25 many complained about slow internet connection, misquoted charts and some kind of problems with quotes at CME/CBOE. My price watch list at OX (Schwab) is acting up all day long, but i did not receive any messages. My Streaming Charts are fine, orders where executed without problem.

Deutsche Bank Downgrades Gold Miners

Deutsche Bank Markets Research downgraded three stocks, cutting Barrick Gold (ABX) and Kinross Gold (KGC) to Hold from Buy, and lowering their rating for Newmont Mining (NEM) to Sell from Hold. They kept Goldcorp (GG) as a Hold.
Under a $1,500/oz gold price scenario we believe NA Gold producers equity values become “scissored” between a sharply lower-than-expected gold price and still rising capex commitments/ operating costs/ cresting resource nationalism, leading to large potential shareholder dilution in 2H13. Under $1,500/oz gold price scenario, net present values decline by 21%, with larger drops to prior NPVs seen at Kinross and Newmont (given relative higher cost operations). Under an extreme $1,300/oz gold scenario NPVs fall 78%…

Barron's Big Money Poll is crazy bullish
74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks -- an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years. What's more, about a third of managers expect the Dow Jones industrials to scale the 16,000 level by the middle of next year

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

HDGE

HDGE is actively managed short fund with bottom-up, fundamental, research driven security selection process (that's what they say). Expence ratio is 3.3%, only 270mil, no leverage, premium/discount very small.

The idea is this - if we are going into a sizable shit-storm, I want to be short weakest companies. Letting somebody make a picks? Lets see what they can do. So far not very impressive, but it is a bear ETF in a bull market

http://advisorshares.com/fund/hdge

Here are top holdings as of 4/22/2013. They look bad, so its good!

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HDGE,DB,TCK,GT,CBT,PVH,FDS,CTL,FFIV,FITB|C|J[$SPX]
Other shorts as of 2/5 and 3/31
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?clf,cmg,prgo,vale,dfs,now,coh,win,bhi|C|J[$SPX]

John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf are managers. John even wrote a book about short selling. Amazon reviews are pretty good.

Here is Brad talking down FOSL, CTL, GT. Pushing your book, ata boy.

Monday, April 22, 2013

Positions, Bergamot T Out

Conservative Bergamot T run out in beginning of April.I arranged these center-posts back in January in this post (link).
Conservative T is anchored into violent V-shaped November bottom, and proved correct. Now the remaining questions are: will this be a double top with higher or lower low, or some kind of "Null Echo" effect, or may be longer T into summer is not correct at-all. There where questions about validity of December center-post, because Nov 15 and Dec 28 bottoms are too far apart.
That aside, I consider this Bergamot T project a success. It guided me just fine since beginning of the year and I am looking forward to doing this again sometimes in future.

BOT:
4/9 - TRX 3.62 1/4pos
4/12 - HDGE 17.45 Half pos
4/18 - TSCO 105.79
4/18 - TRX 2.60 1/4pos
4/18 - SRS 19.65 Half pos
4/18 - SCTY 20.18 Half pos
4/18 - IMAX 27.74 Half pos
4/18 - HDGE 18.29 Half pos

Dividends received 4/12-4/19: CCJ, RGLD, Chemical Mut fund: $49.42 (whoopty doo)

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,BAL,NIB,QID,SDS,HDGE,SRS,FB,MON,tsco,IMAX|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,trx,scty|B|P5,3,3

Here are size and cost basis (incl commissions). 57% invested. Silver and PM miners group is 12%+ allocation, and losing 2.5% of account.

BAL - 56.64 I was expecting Cotton to find support by now. More support down to 50. Weekly chart looks great - buyable dip right now. PFTargets: 51.50; longer term 89
FB - 26.20 Chopping in a box. Support 24.70-25.70. Volume Profile (VP) improving in April.
FSCHX- 96.05 Half pos basis (25% mark-up) $CEX stop under 368. CEX PFT 370met. More PFT 450; 508-512.
IMAX - 27.87 Half pos. This is possibly a Low Volatility Mover (LVM). Not a single close below 5wema for 4 months. Nothing overbought. I wanted to catch one of these for a long time. Trailing loose stop 25-26. Looking to add on strength above 28. PFT 33; 37; 43.50
MON - 107.17 Loss of momentum and weakness on VP. Support 97.50-98.50. PFT 98.50; 111; 133
NIB - 29.39 Cocoa started on Mar 15, 2013 in this post (link), I bot on 3/20 and 28. Support 29-30. PFT 37; 56
SCTY - 20.28 Half pos PFT 28.50
TSCO - 106.06 PFT 108 (met); 126; 154
TSLA - 35.50 Half pos (38% mark-up) Short ratio came down to 13 from 21, but still 42% of float short! PFT 41.50 and 52 met. More PFT 61; 67; 100

HDGE - 17.91
QID - 26.49
SDS - 45.24
SRS - 19.75 Half pos

SLV - 28.20 Half pos
GDX - 37.61 Half pos (-23% dr-down)
SIL - 17.80 Half pos
FNV - 48.63 Half pos
RGLD - 68.96 Half pos
TRX - 3.04 Half pos (-10% dr-down)

In The News:

GOLD - 4/23/13

NEW YORK--Goldman Sachs on Tuesday closed its recommendation to "short" gold, telling clients to exit bets on lower gold prices.

The bank had told its clients to bet on lower gold prices April 10.
"Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists' forecast for a reacceleration in U.S. growth later this year," they said.

4/23/13 - Small Flash Crash
AP Twitter account got hacked and planted a story that two bombs detonated at the white house, injuring Obama. Lasted 5 minutes - 300,000cars ES and 50mil shares SPY.

"Boss, we need to check the machines
No
Pleeease, we don't even know if they are working
No
Pretty please, just a few minutes
Ok, Ok, 5 minutes only
Yee-ha, hit it Lloyd!"

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Watch List Cleaner

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Market Condition

Confidence Indicator (CI) popularized by late great Terry Laundry.He had a whole theory behind how and why it works, tested and researched for many years. The way I use it is simply a ratio of High Yield Bonds overweighted in Technology to Treasuries 15/25 years to maturity. Risk on / risk off so to say. It has an excellent success rate for divergences of this ratio to S&P500 leading to significant downside in Equities, just like what it has now. Present divergence in price was preceded by internal weakness of indicator itself, as evident by MACD divergence.

Bunch of other divergences present itself. New High to New Low Ratio gone negative for the first time this year. Less than half of S&P500 stocks are above 50DMA (per $SPXA50R). This is with SPX only about 3% off the highs! Also a deterioration is visible since March

Small caps and Naz100 are weak and leading down. Financials XLF dipped below 50DMA ahead of SPX.
Naz A/D indicator is very weak.

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April 19 GOLD Sentiment
40% of newsletter writers recommend shorting Gold - this is most bearish since 2008

April 18 GOLD - Physical demand
The U.S. Mint in April has sold 153,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins, the highest in almost three years, after futures prices started the week by plunging the most since 1980.
Sales have more than doubled from March and surged sevenfold from a year earlier, data on the Mint’s website showed. The amount for all of May 2010 was 190,000 ounce.
This week, retail sales and jewelry demand soared in India, the world’s top gold buyer, and China, the second-biggest, after futures in New York slumped into a bear market, touching the lowest in more than two years. Coin sales also surged in Australia.

April 17 GOLD
CME Hikes Gold, Silver Margins By 18.5%. Only big boys are allowed to play.

April 15, 2013 Monday. GOLD falls $150 to low 1335 (close 1361). Half of that drop happened overnight before US market opened. Volume 657090 cars !!! Highest volume of that day came shortly after open, as gold broke 1400

April 14 GOLD - HFT

The implication is that HFT bots driving gold down. They are perfectly designed to chew through bid structures, and that's what you see above. They are 'digesting' all the orders that were still on the books for gold, to remove them so that lower and lower stops could be run. Charts and explanation are from http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/81535/gold-slam-massive-wealth-transfer-our-pockets-banks
I had no idea that Gold is liquid enough to handle these machines.

April 12, 2013 Friday.    GOLD falls $88 to 1501
Goldman Sachs now expects gold to fall to $1,450 an ounce by the end of the year; the company’s original forecast was around $1,810. By the end of 2014, the company believes the precious metal will falter even more, falling to $1,270. Goldman’s 12-month gold outlook also fell from $1,550 to $1,390. Goldman also cut its short-term outlook, cutting its three-month forecast from $1,615 to $1,530 an ounce.

COTTON
Beijing–through the China Cotton Association–has agreed to extend its stockpiling program of the commodity, and will renew cotton stockpiling from September 2013 to March 2014, with no upper limit on purchases.

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I will start to track some of the news. Not because it helps in routine trading. It doesn't. But because markets can't fall without some "shaking of the tree". News cycle has been very quite and benign ever since the beginning of the year, which is unnatural. I strongly believe that some of the news are in fact a "warning shot across the bow", something that changes the balance of things, but often understood only with benefit of hindsight. Still I remember very clearly that I saw right thru all the BS about Jerome Kerviel back in 2008. Kid was softly setup to take a fall for some 500 million in losses for Société Générale (SoGen is a europian equivalent of Goldman Sachs), allowing the bank to get out of massive position in US markets right before Sub-Prime crisis began.
The idea is to plot biggest news on a chart for future use.

In The News:

April 16
Letters containing deadly ricin poison received by Presidents office, some senators and judge. No casualties. Suspect apprehended 2 days later and appears crazy.

April 15 Boston Marathon Bombing. Chechen's involved.

April
        North Korea threatens nuclear attack, severs ties with South Korea. TV is full of cartunish videos of their mid-20th Century army and rockets and that fat kid (Lil Kim). It did get people scared.
        Congress coming back from vacation, get a budget from president that is bigger than before, shots down gun legislation. Starting to shake the news a bit.
        Bitcoin bubble. 40 to 265 in days, than back to less than 80 in hours.
        Japan announces that not only they will print money, but also buy bonds, stocks, ETF's and real estate for next 2 years.
        Numerous announcements of local and other taxes going up. Cost of doing business is thru the roof.

Beginning of April - Bird Flu outbreak in China. Some people died. Human-to-human transmission suspected, but denied by Chinese authorities.

Beginning of March - Cyprus bank crisis. Bank holiday, depositors looted, bailout failed, followed by rumors of their gold reserve sales. Germany approved bailout on April 18

Monday, April 15, 2013

Gold Crash

Below chart from Tiho Brkan shows that gross speculative short positions are at their highest levels in decades. Furthermore, last week public opinion (an amalgamation of a handful of surveys courtesy of sentimentrader.com) reached the lowest level since at least 2004. And bullish percent miners via $BPGDM is at 0 - as it should be in strong downtrend.

During summer 2008 SLV lost about 50% and October 2008 looked liked no bottom I ever seen.
Infact it looked like Silver goes way down from there. Position in SLV bought anytime during that bear would still be profitable btw.

Fast forward to today.
Buy low - sell high?
This is definitely low (which can become even lower), it just have to slow down...

Specifically, I will not be buying today. All PM's are facing margin liquidation which will happen after 2pm. We had it on Friday, and today futures traders are facing a total loss of their position.

What is going on? I have a theory. For one, if you know that several countries (not hedge funds) may be in position to sell gold in order to repay money they owe to you? Will you help them sell gold at highest prices to somebody else, or at lowest print directly to you?… and blah-blah-blah (add your favorite conspiracy theory).
But really I simply think that this support level was too widely watched, accumulated alot of stoploss orders and now we have a cascading effect. Gold-bugs suffered for too long, capitulating. May last for days-to-weeks, may be over tomorrow

We are looking at transfer of shares from weak hands to strong ones.
Rivers of blood!
Don't get swept away...:-)

Some funny-mentals. Top panel is US based, bottom is Canada. I don't want to touch any South Africa, Peru,etc. All these are profitable! At first glance - I don't see any massive shorts, I do see inst ownership, dividends, low debt and low Price-to-Book on most of these. HMMM - is an understatement.!

Here is what crazies are up to:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/all-eyes-gold-rout-most-oversold-14-years

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4643/history-making

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$GOLD,abx,gg,nem,au,aem,gold,rgld,fcx|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?gld,slv,gdx,gdxj,sil,mux,trx,fnv,exk,mgn,jag,mdw|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,PSLV,SLW,PAAS,CDE,AG,HL,SSRI,SVM,EXK,MVG,GPL|B|P5,3,3

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

March 14 - April 5, 2013

Today is new moon. Sun is active almost non-stop for weeks with some flares.

BOT:
4/4 - MON 106.90
4/2 - SCO 37.14 STOP OUT 36.79
3/28 - NIB 29.55 half pos. Now I have full pos on @ 29.39
3/27 - FB 26.13 Good bullish engulfing bar. Trying for bottom again
3/27 - SCO 37.68 (half pos) STOP OUT 37.10
3/26 - BAL 57.20 half pos. Now I have full pos on @ 56.64
3/21 - SCO 40.19 half pos. EXIT on 3/26 @ 37.45
3/21 - SDS 45.13
3/20 - NIB 28.90 half pos Cocoa as planned here (link)
3/20 - RGLD 68.64 half pos.
3/19 - FB 26.85 STOP OUT 26.28
FB 26.55 EXIT on 3/20 @ 26.11 What the fuck is going on here?
Devil Degenerate Gambler (DDG) is back. Damn

SLD:
4/3 - TSLA 41.27 Sold half on trailing stop after gap-up
4/1 - JJG 49.20 %loss on half position
3/26 - CCJ 21.12
3/22 - DRYS 2.15 final 1/4 out. Total profit % on half position size.
3/21 - DRYS 2.07 (1/4 out) on pop. This one is weak, lucky to be out with small gain.
3/19 - XHB 29.59

Monday, April 8, 2013

Back to Business

I'm back.
Not in terms of being bullish. Not at all.

I was resting for about a month, but in a strange way. I needed a rest, was sick and tired and decided to take it easy in stock-market, especially since entering this "not right" situation. Sometimes its just better to stay away, let the dust settle a bit, let somebody else get chopped-up and wait when there is better risk-to-reward ratio (be it on long or short side). The way this turned out was - I stopped doing my journal entrees, stopped research, but continued to trade, albeit at slower pace and with less that half of account invested. Not surprising, my gains are reduced somewhat. No biggy, but unnecessary. So next time I decide to rest - I will go to cash completely, otherwise it could turn into ugly mess. Therefore, I am back to business.

Positions: about 35% invested
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,BAL,NIB,QID,SDS,FB,MON|B|P5,3,3
FSCHX 2/3 ; TSLA 1/2
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?slv,gdx,sil,fnv,rgld|B|P5,3,3
All PM and miners are 1/2 position size each.
Also tiny amount in MJNA, PHOT, HEMP all together less than 1/3 pos.

Right now i need to bring this journal up to date, finish all latest posts and review my positions. Also I was making a list of industries and "General Idea's" - so why not to review each one of them here. Maybe even make some video's

Friday, March 22, 2013

S&P500 Crayon

S and P 500 crayon. Not saying it will happen. Just a guess for fun (an educated guess)

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

5th of 5th of 5th

I am not a big fan of Elliott Wave Theory (EWT)
This is from personal experience. I don't think anybody disputing that EWT is very hard to properly analyze in real time. What really necessary is for pattern to be finished, reversal of some kind to already occur and only then you have a "confirmed" EW count. This whole business is really pretty and can blow your mind with benefit of hindsight.

In practice, trading based on Elliott Wave, Gann, Wolfe etc always ended in doing me more harm than good. Its easy to imagine a pattern or scenario that supports my present position, or worse - to start taking positions based on count that is not finished yet. There-in is a hidden contradiction: I can't invest based on incomplete pattern, but by the time pattern is complete and confirmed it will be to late to invest. Basta! After I experienced this vicious circle several times and always managed to lose money, I decided to stay away from fancy-shmancy theories including EWT. It did me good, and allowed me to observe rather than act on imperfect info.

Truly, ALL information on markets is imperfect. We have to make an aggressive directional bet, based on incomplete data, for unpredictable amount of time. Notably, there are "right" situations, when risk is low(er) than possible reward. "Wrong" is wrong all over the place. And then there are stages in-between.

SPX went thru bunch of stages, some looking like major top, some like run-away long term bull market, until everybody left. Bulls are afraid to get caught again, bears can't take anymore pain. Five big waives off 2009 bottom, five well defined waves off Fall 2011, five off November 2012 low. This last one has distribution happening thruout - not on averages, but on most of former market leading stocks. I am not an expert on Elliott Wave Theory, and I am not sure how to properly label all stages, but i am looking at a picture that is just too perfect.

I am not bullish. My target was 1600+ on SPX, some 50 point away. Possible correction / bear market can take this market to 1000 SPX, some 500 points away.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Cocoa

Cocoa is in a sweet spot, right at 25 Day MA.
I tried to pick bottom on NIB back in fall of last year. Didn't take

Now is an interesting situation on all time frames, IF:
1. Hourly is inverted H&S
2. Daily is bull flag
3. My volume profile starts really improving (its rather neutral now)
4. Dare I say 5th wave down on Daily chart?
5. 5 year chart is at some kind of long term support

I will be buying NIB above 5Wema over 28.80
Looking for it to hold 28.50. Below 27.50 is a continuation of down-trend

New Moon 14%, Solar activity on a rise - first active for few days, today Mclass flare. Sun had been flat for weeks. Increase in activity always leads to volatility in Markets, both up and down.

Monday is seasonally best day of march all around. From there its all downhill, with slight blimp on 27 and 28 on Nazdaq. After that April is positive for all stocks.

Market is incredibly thin. Where is everybody?
From Chicago's Mr Top Step
" There was always a big “to do” when it comes to the quad witching, but the facts are the facts: It’s nothing like it used to be. The big roar of the pit that used to have 300+ screaming locals and order fillers has been reduced to 3 or 4 order fillers and 50 or 60 locals all waiting for orders that almost never hit the pit. That said, we do not expect a lot of action today. Some business in the first and last 45 minutes."

What about that POMO? Where is all that money go?... Cus its not in a stock markets, for sure

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Sick and Tired

Literally.
I've been sick on and off for past 3 months. Finally it did me in. Spent few days relaxing, not in bed, but around it. Seeing doctor on Thursday - I give up, need some pills or something.

Markets are tired too, but not sick yet. Soon it will change.
I have been winding down my stock portfolio for the past couple of weeks. Selling every time I see big volume coming in, or even near support being taken out. Trailing my stops up, until they are hit. I see only few good set-ups and mostly ignoring them, except for some special cases.

I am not calling a top here and now, although it may be close. Mainly I am tired. I have been slugging for months, all while being sick and it catches up with me. I know that I can't go non-stop. I will start making mistakes, then I will try to "press" in order to make up for losses, then I will turn significant profit into an unnecessary draw-down.

It doesn't mean I am stopping operations all-together. Not at all. I just laying off stocks in general, taking intensity of trading way down and not trying to be 100% in.

BOT:
3/4 - BAL 53.54 Half position Cotton
3/5 - SLV 28.03 Half pos
3/5 - SCTY 18.45 1/4pos
3/5 - MGAM 19.06 Half pos
3/5 - FB 28.07 Half pos
3/6 - SIL 17.71 Half pos Silver Miners
3/12 - QID 26.41 This is not a hedge, but a directional trade. No stop for now, but watching 69qqq area. Almost all breakouts failed on QQQ over past 3 months. may not work this week as Quad Witching week is very bullish thru Friday
3/13 - XHB 29.51 If something goes up, it must be homies... Or is it over too? Stop under 29.25

SLD:
3/7 - SCTY 16.42 All out. Earnings sucks. So why did it go up all this time?
3/7 - FSCHX 125.60 Sold 1/3 size. Continue to reduce.
3/8 - GEO 35.79 Quick trade out.
3/11 - MGAM 19.65. All out. Continuing on-line poker research. This company doesn't really fit into what I think will happen. Seems that casinos themselves are setup the best for internet gaming. They will hire somebody inhouse or go to big development company to set up a "System".
3/12 - TSCO 102.98 Its still going sideways, but I see alot of selling intraday and in 104-105 top range. Will consider re-entry above resistance.
3/12 - SCO 39.34 Stoped out on overnight gap. I wrote on many occasions about gap-risk, and here it is - taking away large portion of my gains. Re-entry possible.
3/12 - FB 27.66 50dma and 29ish level proving to be too much of resistance. Watching
3/13 - IBB 155.56 All out. Enough for now
3/13 - TAN 17.70 Closed day below 2 previous lows on daily chart (17.50 level). This may be H&S top, with possible target of 13-14. There is not much support there. I'm afraid I will have to look for individual stocks, cus Solar Industry is in trouble as a whole

Positions
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,CCJ,JJG,BAL,DRYS,SLV,SIL,GDX,FNV,qid,xhb|B|P5,3,3
Full size positions: CCJ, TSLA, QID,XHB
FSCHX (tracked by $CEX) 2/3 pos size and reducing
Total PM allocation is 2 full pos size.

UPDATE 3/14/2013 7am:
Daily Silver
I swear it looks like bear flag on a daily chart
And miners are no better
And Dollar is a horse - if it doesn't stop somewhere here, it goes all the way.
Oy Vey...

Dividends received
3/1 GEO 45
3/9-3/11 - IBM 7; XOM 10; CVX 12

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Discovery at Sea

        I got sidetracked over the weekend.
In an unusual chain of events I discovered the Shipping Industry. Shipping over oceans is a very peculiar business at this moment in time. Needs a different mind-set and time horizon, comparing to other industries I follow. I spent 3 days trying to learn everything i can about it, but information is very scarce - there is no investment letters and write-ups on Montley Fool etc are very general in nature and don't address many problems I see. There is some industry consulting and research, but it's not available for free, and fees are in thousands.

        First of all, out of 48 companies in Finviz shipping section, over half are Greek and Bermuda corporations. Not surprising to see Greek ones being decimated past their financial crisis, with many smaller ones already bankrupt or sold. I have been wondering for years - whats the big deal about Greece, what is there to gain for big boys? Now I know. Small greek shipping business owner is too juicy victim to pass up. Now its not that important anymore - damage has been done and over with.

       Prime industry publication is http://www.tradewindsnews.com/
As suspected, it is filled with endless pump for foreign traded securities and not much analysis. They do have a pretty good You Tube channel with interviews from past trade-shows, i reviewed it with stunning results. While past years sponsors where banks and insurers, most recent conference was sponsored by corporate law firm specializing in bankruptcies. Corporate lawyers are like military medics - when battle is over, they come out to tend to wounded and remove the corpses. Old vampire Wilbur Ross is there too, he feeds on corpses methinks... Greek shipowners are now largely absent, replaced with young american CEO's - a restructuring placeholders of decision makers. It's a good thing really, shareholders where bearing losses of this mess and industry is left for dead. Somebody has to put an E into P/E, and Greeks aint gona do it.

       For the rest of my analysis I removed smallest companies with market cap under 50mil, bringing whole industry to only 37 stocks. First thing that strikes me as odd is that more than half have Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of less than 1, ten with P/B less than 0.5 and only four with over 3. I have never seen anything like it. Basically they are either a free gift to Wall Street or fully half of ocean shippers worldwide are bankrupt! They just didn't filed papers yet. Obviously, P/B is a deceptive measure, affected by depreciation, stock buy-backs and other accounting shenanigans. I usually completely disregard it, but seeing it as industry-wide dynamic makes money hair on the back of my neck go wo-wo-wo. My present position DRYS is the largest of sub-0.5 P/B stocks.

   Insider ownership is not really an actionable fundamental, but these days I rarely see management and owners with any skin in a game. Here is companies with nearly half of shares owned by insiders: GLNG, TK, SSW and CPLP at 30%. Most of major shippers pay nice dividends - with NMM and CPLP at over 12% and SFL, NAT, CMRE, TOO not far behind. At this time I will not focus on dividend accumulation, because I am not planning to hold them long enough. My view remains that this market is on its last leg, shippers will be hit hard (probably harder than most) in upcoming correction/bear market.

      Short interest (SI) is not homogeneous thruout this industry. KEX, TDW and NAT are at higher levels of Short Ratio (SR) than other majors, but only KEX is near 52 week high and in danger of short squeeze. Contrary to popular opinion, I don't view high SI and SR as bullish indicator. Short sellers are usually very smart and operate with superior knowledge. I don't find it wise to fight them in general, and specifically here I don't see anything way out of wack.

     If I buy any today, SSW looks good. Really good opportunity is sometime in future.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?sea,TDW,CKH,SSW,MATX,STNG,DRYS,DSX,NAT|B|P5,3,3

Here is top 20:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,GLNG,TGP,TK,TOO,TDW,GMLP,SFL,CKH,SSW|C|C20
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?cmre,matx,nmm,stng,glog,drys,dsx,cplp,nat,nm,dac,sb|C|C20

Here is Angeliki Frangou in 2012

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Panem et Circenses

     What the hell was it yesterday, on 2/27/13?
First of all, it had nothing to do with housing data. Reaction at 10am was timid at best. What happened was a relentless short squeeze, as /ES open interest stood at whooping 3.16mil cars. Can't wait until 9am to see if it gotten smaller - I don't see how people would not cover shorts after this. Now, with late-comer longs already stopped-out, its a time for over-eager shorts to be taken to woodshed. Besides, how can anybody have a directional forecast with gigantic moves on VIX, big-range up and down days, and all political BS on both sides of the pond. Big boys are shaking the tree to see what dislodges, I don't want any part of it.

      I didn't exit QQQ short via QID. Although my stop was above 67Q, I decided to wait a bit. Q's still the weakest of indexes and sold-off heavy right before close. There will be no point of keeping this short above todays high and 67.80. I hate to hedge. Makes me so confused - am I long or short? It's like I am not limiting losses, but guaranty that I loose a bit whichever way the market goes. GRRR... One single position QID gives me so much headache, while GEO pushes into new high. Prisons is a leading industry? Buckweats...

UPDATE 2/28 AH:
SLD: QID 27.11 -4%
What a horrible mess I made out of this trade. It was all wrong, shorted at the low - covered at the high. What the hell am I thinking? This is not oops, this is bad-bad-bad.. Atleast I did it with 1pos only, so no big damage.

     Which brings me to ongoing Treasure Hunt.
Panem et Circenses is latin for "Bread and Circuses" (or bread and games). Pretty good place to start, considering a peculiar situation with grains and latest legislation about online gaming. Play legal poker online, while high on legal pot and who cares how expensive munchies are...

        Ag-complex
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,soyb,corn,bal,moo,tsco,de,cnh,lnn,mon,mos|B|P5,3,3
       Soy via SOYB is ready to go today - strongest of grains. JJG has to be bought back above 53. Cotton via BAL really doesn't belong to this group, but its strongest of all softs, buy above recent high. Although MON has a law-suit going on, hard to argue with its straight. TSCO need to buy asap.

    UPDATE 2/28 AH:
    BOT:
TSCO - 104.10
JJG     - 52.04 Half pos.   I really wasn't suppose to buy it until tomorrow, but all grains where strong in the morning. Put limit order for SOYB, but it was not getting filled. This is my third time going for grains.
BAL run away while I wasn't watching, now need to wait for pullback.
DRYS - 1.98 Half pos. I was staking it ever since breakout in January, with my eyes on 1.8-1.9 level. Needs to hold it.
FB     - 27.19 Half pos. Bot on close. High volume hammer. Last couple of days looked corrective. May be it will not get to 25.
FNV - 48.36 Half pos
GDX - 37.40 Half pos.
Damn the torpedoes! No stop for now. Bullish percent miners is at 3 or 4 for a reason - they all are in downtrend. Will watch for a day or two, then add.
I outlined some thoughts on PM and miners in previous post. Today's double bottom was too good to pass-up. I was keeping an eye an FNV and RGLD. They are not so much miners, but a royalty companies. Last summer they where some of the first to bottom and then rally hard, for whatever the reason

To be sure - I am NOT buying the dip. I'm going into these selected situations, and lightly - most Half Position Size only.

       Gaming
BOT:
2/27 - MGAM @ 18.30 half pos

       Pot-trade: I really need to have a detailed look at these companies
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

More on this later...

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.

Over the next couple of hours I moved some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
HAO   - 24.16
RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn?
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03 Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26 - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what? VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
$CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):

           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing?

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.
           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.
           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

Friday, February 22, 2013

The Fly Review of My Blog

This site is a god damned mess. Change the name of the site immediately. Why is there a moon widget on the side? I want to punch that thing in the face. Stay focused, clean up the site. Websites are not christmas trees. You don’t have to put a toy on every branch. This is a gentleman’s business and your website should reflect that. Your paragraph structure is screwy too. It’s too bad, since this site is updated frequently with decent content. Grade: C-

My Reply:

Dear Mr Fly,
Thank you for your detailed review (all 5 lines of it).
I would like to respectfully point out that name of my site is MY name, as I don’t associate myself with any group of bloggers or any investment style. I run money. I don’t answer to anybody. i-Bergamot. Why? Cus I like it!
As far as Moon – point your browser directly here http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2012/08/read-moon-phases-im-not-crazy.html. Look it up – there is plenty info on internets and quite a few books.
Just like Daily Global Economic Calendar, these are MY tools, I keep them visible to me at all times.
Those god-damned ads do make it look like a christmas tree, that I agree.
As far as paragraph structure – Fuck You !
How is that?
C-
My P/L strongly disagrees.

It gave me distinct pleasure to reply in these this compact and beautiful words: "Fuck You".
It's the best testament to my independence and self-worth.

      I made this blog originally as a necessity, so I don't have to carry my journal around with me to office and house-by-the-lake. Than I added few gadgets - Moon (so I don't sell-out on new moon), Sun (I have a whole theory behind that) and other stuff. Global Calendar already proved itself as an invaluable tool.

      Most of all, I didn't copy this from anybody, wasn't taught this in any college-shmolege, nobody gave me tips or recommendations. All mine. Not for some benefit or ads income (Ads revenues to date $16). Not for fame - I really don't care. Only for my use, so I can run my money better, so I can go back and see what I thought, felt and did at certain key points. So I don't forget. Someday soon I will do it full time - it's better to learn from small(er) mistakes.

      In the process, I kinda started to like writing. I was never good at it, even at school I was getting B's at best. Guess I didn't have anything good to say. Nowadays I often just re-read my own posts and find myself surprised: "How did I managed to put it just this way? I don't even know these words!" I like this Bergamot dude - he is like my alternative personality, or something. And he is profitable! In real money!

     O, fantasy investment is always sooo profitable. I've been around investment blogs long enough, and was following phony's long enough to understand - you either blog or you trade. The only guy who did both was Norrin, and trolls did him in pretty quick. Finally he just said: "Fuck You", and disappeared. I don't blame him. He was my great teacher, I'm sorry I lost him, and forever greatful.
      Good Night

says:

But Fly’s correct. Proper paragraphing is nine tenths of writing and 9.6 tenths of blog writing.
People will just not get through it if you go on and on, and on… etc.
i Bergamot says:

February 22, 2013 at 12:59 pm

I’ll see about that ASAP.
thanks

Update 2/23/2013:

         I always tell my kids: "Listen and learn from people who know more than you do". Following my own advise, I decided to look into this Proper Paragraphing issue. Maaan, there is a lot to learn. Apparently, there is a whole set of rules about structure, indentation, topic and supporting sentences etc.

         Being an avid reader and an amateur thinker does not lead directly into being a good writer. Like any craft, it requires knowledge of inner-workings, learning tricks of the trade and above all - practice. Just writing down my spontaneous mind-farts is not enough. It really has be readable.

         I entered this Fly's Blog Contest on a spur of the moment, without any specific goal in mind. Obviously, iBergamot is neither qualified, nor has any desire to be part of somebody-else's business. I am really done with "partners" of all sorts, but it doesn't mean I should stop learning from The Best. Therefore I must extend a big thanks to The Fly and Jake Gint for taking time to review my messy dwellings here at iBergamot, and offering an actionable advise.

          With my top hat clenched in a sweaty palm, I stand corrected.

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2013/02/21/the-official-2013-review-of-select-blogs-from-around-the-web-o-sphere/

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Battle of 1510 /ES Continues

1510 /ES presented itself as a resistance in a beginning of February and I noticed that this is where battle lines are drawn here (link).

Well-well, what do you know, this is really where they had the stops. ES had to go past 1510 and this morning System 10 kicked in. I'm using a lighter version, not futures, but SSO. So far so good.

Got step 1 of VIX buy signal.

My A/D indicator closed -470, and that is at-least short term bottom. It can come down some more, but i think most of damage is over.

During the day I surveyed a bunch of internets. Remember how everybody where waiting for a dip to buy? Well, the dip is here, and nobody is buying. People are bearish as shit, talking about Mark Fabers' down 20%, Tom Demarks' 9-13's.   Nobody is talking about Bergamot's 1600+
Good, that is just how I like it.

          What if I'm wrong? What if 1510 can not be taken over by bulls?
          It's possible.
But my thinking is this: to have a big selloff, the beginning of Bear Market we need broken support, or some kind of formation (double top or something), or moving average cross, or PF bear price objective, or blow-off on large volume... you get my gist. I see bearish engulfing / maribozu candles all over the place, but they have lousy reliability. So far all I have is Canadian Time magazine cover and 2 of my friends who just found out that there is a Bull Market going on. No joke - people find out about this bull run only a week or two ago. Now they are thinking : "What to invest in?"

I figure we have until tax-day, the LATEST!
I am being very serious now - this bull run is on its last legs, but last leg is always explosive, so...
I am 80%+ invested, long stocks and grains, short bonds and oil until further instructions.

I'm wondering what industry group will rally the most off this low? Homebuilders?
          BOT:
SSO
XHB
IYR
MJNA added a little at 0.25, just like planned here (link)

More on this later.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

QE-n. The Put-up Job

The Good Guy is wondering:

"pain (price decrease) incurred on 30 year bonds through selling does not match (percent-wise) the euphoria in stocks"

    My thoughts exactly. But its a fallacy of stock trader wading in Bond Market, and trying to game it with the same tricks. Government bonds is much bigger market than stocks, takes some time to get going.

    I tried to borrow 10k at 3% for 30 years from everybody I know. They just laugh at me. But millions of people give it to treasuries without any second thoughts. Hmm. Whats important is a fact that there is no active investor alive, who have seen a bear market in US Treasuries. But that is not THE biggest problem. Why? Because the hard right edge of Long Bond chart is not active investors, but pensions, IRA's, mom-and-pop etc., who have no clue what shit they got themselves into.

      Back here in QE-land:

I don't know what Bearded Clam is buying, but visibly its not Government Bonds.
O, I remember - its Mortgage Backed Bonds (see MBB chart below). What? Also at 6 months low? How can it be - 85bil per month freshly printed Dollars...   Printed Dollars?    /DX must be in a crapper by now. No? Wrong again, you know where dollar stands, and I know your bet on where it goes. (this was directed at Molecool, who was long Dollar at the time of this writing)

     Guys, am I the only one who see complete lack of logic/correlation here.
Call me crazy conspiracy theorist or just a smelly yellow fruit, but I think this QE-n is a total put-up job.

      Fine, I have a theory. Feds are not stupid to buy bonds here - let the price fall and pick it up on a low print. Nah, too cute
Or - Big boys are selling bonds faster than Fed buying. Sell? But to whom?
Or - Bermonkey relaxing on a way to golf club, transfers money from left pocket to right one, books it as a profit, collects a fee...

I really don't know, but my bullshit-o-meter has been stuck on red for months, ever since this post (link)

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Positions, Watch List

...developing...

This is going to be 8th week of non-stop advance.
Forget Tom deMark and his 9's and 13's - that guy is crazy and a fucking idiot. How i know? I actually paid money to listen to his blubber years ago, read a book and tested his ideas. Indisputably it's a bullshit, designed to collect fees and confuse muppets. People show his charts on TV, and all are in owe... well even a meteorite strikes a city ones in a hundred years, it doesn't mean we have to live underground, eh.

Back here, where I run real money:
There may be a problem with oil and entire oil/gas industry. I'm not sure what the problem is, but I see a divergence on daily chart, so starting a short. Half position only for now - all this could be OPEX shenanigans, plus contract is rolling into April.
I think I can control my bearish bias, as I was saying for a while that we are ~~swimming~~ drowning in oil and nat gas, and while natty is historically pretty low already, I really don't understand why oil pushing 100 and not 50. "Peak-oil" my ass - I never bought it for a second. That aside, my stop is above recent high

BOT:
2/19 - SCO Half pos (Short oil)

SLD:
2/20 - ZSL Final half. Sold at target. Total profit on this trade +14%.
2/20 - TSCO 101.75 on stop -2%
2/20 - SLX 47.85 on stop -3%
2/20 - SCTY Half out. 19.10 Really 1/4, I only had half pos on
2/20 - MON 98.76    -4% Apparently there is a trial going on. I need to be more attentive to company specifics, had I know about litigation, I would never bought it. Hindsight 20/20, oops
2/20 - BHP 77.73 (S12T; BTFT) $-36.29 Emergency Exit (EE)

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,$CEX,CG,TSLA,JJG,TBT,SLX,IBB,SCTY,CCJ,MON,fb|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EZA,HAO,EWS,RSX,GEO,TAN,ZSL,TSCO|B|P5,3,3

Need to do this review again, especially from stand point of taking profits;

UPDATE 2/21 Fuck taking profits, run for your life.
But seriously, when I have +1% day followed by -1.4% day it's always bad news.
I already booked about 3% profit this year (closed positions), and I prefer to control my risk, rather than hold-n-hope. Lets see how this correction goes, sell weaklings and allocate capital to strongest areas again.

2/20 was a BAD candle on all major averages, but one day doesn't make it a top. Not yet. In fact on 240min ES chart this looks like repeat of 2/4/13. Buyable dip? It's a bull market, you know...

CCJ -   Support 20.50 - 21. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21. Only have 1/4pos on - its a runner. Last PFT 37 (met). All these PFT met
FB      - Trailing close stop. If this turn doesn't hold - FB goes to 25, where I will look to buy it again.
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met. More PFT 508-512.
GEO -   Support 32-33   ER 2/21bmo, call 11am. CXW fell on its earn., but recovered a bit since.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - New highs without touching 20dma. PFT 88 ; 91.50 met. More targets 95; 104
JJG   - Logical stop is under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75 (met). Possible double bottom? Last PFT 60.30
~~MON~~ - Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134. SOLD
MOO -Watching reaction to 50dma
SCO -have a Half pos on. Watching reaction to 50dma (USO)
SCTY- New all time high. Support 16-17.50. Only have 1/4pos on 2/21.
~~SLX~~ - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72. SOLD
TAN -18-19 is support, then 50dma. Watching
TBT - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 67 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
~~TSCO~~ -SOLD
TSLA - Holding. SR still 21! 37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50; 52; 61
Conference call is a disaster. They shoot rockets into space, but can't get a working phone. Indian CFO is a moron. Down 6% AH.
~~ZSL~~ - SOLD
EWS -
EZA -liquidate
HAO -2/21 - at support
RSX - Fucking russians - liquidate

Pot-trade
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

S12T
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOOG,BRK/B,GE,BHP|B|P5,3,3

Watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,IGE,sea,DRYS,ORB,GSVC,DDD,RGR,yelp,soda,xlk,xlf|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NIB,HYG,PCY,EEM,ifn,EUO,XHB,IYR,KORS,SWI,XLB,KOL|B|P5,3,3

Short oil and gas?:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?USO,UNG,UGA,SCO,DUG,IGE,XLE,OIH,XOP,AMJ,XES|B|P5,3,3
Graphite (looks little iffy, eh)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CVV,ENTG,GTI,TCK,ZOLT,FDR.V,NGPHF,FCSMF,ENZR|B|P5,3,3

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