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Thursday, February 7, 2013

Half Point

Don't laugh, but this came to me in a dream.
Dreams and intuition are powerful subconscious tools, so I decided to investigate.

General idea is this:
During a low volatility bull market, there is a half point in price and time. It could be a flag, a measuring gap or something else. At the time it looks like a small top, with divergence in indicators, failed break-out or support and strange volume pattern. Understand - not all of these conditions must be met, as long as it looks topish and scary - it's a valid half point. This can last from few days to few weeks. I think we just had that Half Point. Now and most importantly - half point is confirmed by a powerful move, with recent top  taken out quickly and on volume.
This did not happened yet.

I don't see how all this can be measured precisely, and I don't think its necessary. Just general understanding is good enough, as long as SPX takes out 1515 and continue up with low volatility.
No harm to calculate targets: 1600+ on SPX sometimes in March 2013.
But wait - there is a Bergamot T from this post (link) , which also points into March.
As Darth Gerb said: "Speculators should be finding hard data to speculate."
I checked, as soon as I woke up - it was hard

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