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Sunday, February 10, 2013

Roaring Bull Market

I think I'm the only one why sees this Roaring Bull Market, everybody else are either shorting (and loosing their shirts) or cautiously out and waiting.
There is nothing wrong with waiting, except it will be over soon and trading will become increasingly difficult. So as long as VIX low and my Nazdaq A/D indicator not pushing overbought - I will stay aggressively long. I even started to take "quick trades", which I haven't done in a long time. First one (TM-Toyota) is already out with profit.
There are several themes I am keenly interested in.
          First of all is agriculture, specifically grain complex. JJG volume profile is improving, and although its still not in uptrend, serious buying volume in mid-January keeps me hopeful. There is a lot to be done in agri-business stocks. I may be early with all this, but winter is the time to get positioned - so if I stop out there will be another entry point soon enough.
          Energy stocks are acting strange. System 12 is heavy in energy, because these are some of the biggest companies in the world. Surprisingly, as XOM, PTR and RDS collapsed,  XLE broke-out to new highs and I bought it for a trade. XOM and PTR where exited from S12T and BTFT at almost 5% loss each. Thats a lot, I don't want to see 5% losses in a middle of bull market, but rules are rules. When/if  they recover - I am sure System 12 will pick them back up.
          Entire industrial complex is very strong, including materials XLB, metal and miners (not gold/silver), even shippers SEA. I believe this is real reason for our bull market, not this mythical QE-n everybody talking about. You want to see QE - look at yen. Dollar is rather strong, and all this implied bond buying doesn't do shit for our long bond.
         All news is about AAPL, homebuilders and Europe. I have no opinion or positions on EU and  AAPL will be picked up by System 12 in due time. As for "homies", IYR started to move out on Friday and XHB still correcting, but I'm little weary about "Housing Recovery" - too much talk on Tee-Vee makes me uncomfortable.
           Emerging markets where leading this market up and I expect it to continue. EEM was my trading pick, but its correcting with no end in sight. I'm watching it and hoping that good entry will present itself rather sooner than later. In the mean time I decided to pick 4 foreign ETF's, enter half position each and see what happens. Not touching Japan - this rally is not economy based, its QE based and will crash, just like US crashed as soon as QE-1 was over.
           As this bull market entering its late stage, I expect all kinds of garbage to advance violently in coming weeks. Usual suspects are solar, uranium and rare earths. I'm trying to enter TAN with half position lot and add on the way up, but it may not work as TAN is a lousy etf. Just like emerging markets, I may need to pick some companies that are in better condition. Uranium sector is all fucked-up, most miners are penny stocks, but with bomb-recycling program coming to an end this year - there may be opportunities. RE sector is still dead, without single stock in uptrend. I heard that fundamentally only tungsten and antimony are of value, need to investigate, but not expecting much.
          On Friday last week I was 100% invested. System 12 pulled significant part of my capital and I run out of money. If there is something to sell, its utilities mutual fund - I think there is better use of money out there.
          I have been doing a fine job controlling risk and rotating out of overheated sectors, so I will continue with this rhythm of trading until stops are hit that is. Presently only one position can really bite me in the ass - short Silver via ZSL, everything else is single or half positions, liquid and in uptrend. Only 2x position is Chemical mutual fund, but I'm not touching it yet.

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