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Thursday, January 10, 2013

Possibility of Bond Bear Market

BOT: TBT @ 66.15, which was almost HOD. 65 is support. If broken there is gap fill at 63.50 and 50dma at 62. I want at least 2x pos short bonds, so the question is: do I hold for lower levels and add or step aside and start over at better prices?
I wrote in AM:
Looks like 30yr Bond breaking down from bear flag. Past this I don't see any support close by.
For me - TBT, cus I can't go short
TLT is better chart to analyze than TBT.
TLT 5Wema and 50Wma are around 120.20 and its a line in a sand. No weekly close above is allowed, otherwise its a repeat of spring 2012 again.
Volume profile weakening, but note that it was bad a year ago yet resulted in rally. The major difference is that now it is UNDER 200/50 DMA's. All PF targets are down at 113 to 108, so TBT going to 80-90

Added to EEM @ 44.70. So now I have a 2x pos with av cost 43.84
Just as I did it Doc Barter put out short emerging markets via EDZ :
He is an excellent analyst, but his timing sometimes early

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