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Tuesday, June 27, 2017

VIDEO: T Theory Observations for Summer 2017. Conflict T.

Conflict T projects summer top, while Rate T projects low of stocks. We may see some MOVES...



Winter T of 2016-2017 , mentioned in this video, is here:
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2017/03/video-winter-t-review-and-s-trend.html

Rate T projections of 2017 Low in Stocks was explained in December 2016 video:
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2016/12/video-t-theoty-observations-12-2016.html

Monday, June 5, 2017

Belong Here

Poquessing Middle School Select Choir directed by Jason Leigh.

http://wmmr.com/2017/06/02/bucksco-middle-school-choir-land-gig-wmmr-monday-morning/


Amazing video, made by one of parents on iPhone, clocked over 10 thousand views and prompted comments like these:
"Super cool. Love the way it was videotaped"
"I got goosebumps as soon as they started! Sounds great!!!"
"Makes me wish I lived in the area so my daughters could be a part of your group! Bravo!!!"
"Even though you guys are only in middle school, you sound better than some high schools I've heard. Great job!!"


From Jason Leigh Facebook post on May 24 at 8:43pm:
"Last night, the Select Choir tried something new. After the recording session, I hustled the recording company out so we could take a wild stab at our first "music video." It was an interesting experience considering we had never done it before. But, thanks to very patient kids and the kindness of Richard Saxton (our tireless videographer), I think we captured something pretty cool. Please show it to your kids. They are all in it. I edited the footage today with the recorded audio from two weeks ago and, well... I hope you like it. Hopefully the positive message comes through clearly, although I'll never know how we did this on the first (and only) take. Please enjoy!"
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On June 5, 2017 at 7:20am Select Choir hit the airwaves.



http://wmmr.com/2017/06/05/watch-poquessing-middle-school-students-sing-creep-live-wmmr/

https://youtu.be/dHkUg2TynOk

Mad props to WMMR crew for flawless production, great interview and fantastic sound.
Kate spoke so well... (mama cried whole lot)... with no preparations, girl did it old school - live.
Bergamot is beaming with delight...

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Then, at 9:43am at FOX-29 TV studio.
 https://youtu.be/P-_zX7Qnda4
I would be remiss not to mention, that creepy TV anchor needs to lay off the snow.
But more importantly - how do they take a great idea and fucked it up so bad? What, nobody show that clip from You-Tube to TV station editor? People just don't take enough time and care to prepare for their damn job properly. Or maybe those guys missed lectures on select transform and jump cuts, while spending 100 g's on their useless film school diploma. And what's the matter with left cam? Arrrghhh...
Other than that - Mr Leigh is The Man, always super cool, pleasure to see and listen to.
Kids are AMAZING!
That girl in glasses in front of mic... (papa cried a bit)... so proud...


===============================================================
BONUS TRACKS.

Overnight success couple of years in a making.
In 2015, Select Choir took 2nd place in Christmas Choir Competition on NBC.

Here is The Man behind the magic and The School that makes it all possible.

Thank You.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Poor Richard. The Tools.


Poor Richard invests into Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (ticker $SPX).
http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500

To be absolutely clear, Poor Richard Method (PRM) is designed exclusively to be used on S&P500 – Index of 500 best large-capitalization US stocks. It will not work on any other index, ETF, commodity or bonds, and most likely lead to massive losses if tried.

Many people call S&P500 ‘The Market’, but it is an erroneous assumption. ‘The Market’ is over 7000 issues traded on major exchanges, of which about 4000 are American stocks (and only half are really tradable). The rest of them are ETF’s, bond funds, foreign stocks and more of god knows what. S&P500 is not ‘The Market’, but it is an accurate representation of the leading, most prosperous and the biggest enterprises in USA, as well as true reflection of THIS particular slice of economy, at the time. Index is re-balanced quarterly so weak companies and declining stocks are removed and replaced with new rising stars. Weighting of stocks in Index also changes and shifts over time according to their methodology, which (understandably) is a closely guarded secret.
S&P500 is not a static, frozen in time list of stocks, but a dynamic rotational system – An Active Index.

S&P500 has been ‘fixed’ so good, that (on average) investment fund managers are not able to beat it performance for years, and may be at-all. It is really A System – very crude, but extremely robust if used correctly. S&P500 index was never intended for day-trading and short-term speculation, but unfortunately it’s all we ever hear about. What is mostly absent from discussion is the true purpose of Index: a meaningful and rational investment of savings into diversified group of best stocks for tax-efficient accrual of ultimate surplus value.

Poor Richard’s investment of choice is Vanguard 500 Index Fund (ticker VFINX) – a mutual fund closely tracking an Index itself. VFINX is passively managed - simply replicating weightings, composition and all the ‘voo-doo’ done by wizards at ‘S&P Dow Jones Indices’ (link at the top of article). Vanguard funds are very well managed and have some of the lowest expense ratios in the business. They are bought and sold without commission, offer free dividend reinvestment and can be traded on their easy to use website.

Mutual Fund is The Best way to reach a ‘Holy Grail’ of investing – a Compounding Interest. When investment pays a dividend, which is promptly re-invested by purchasing additional shares, these new shares will also accrue dividend in due time, and so on continuing to compound these by generating 'interest on interest’. Albert Einstein called Compounding Interest an 8th wonder of the World, the most powerful force in the universe and the greatest invention in human history. He also pointed out that those “who understand it – earns it; who doesn’t – pays it”. Mutual funds are traded in fractional shares, so entire dividend can be fully re-invested, making compounding even more efficient. Practicing Poor Richard Method will lead you to deep understanding of this (almost magical) feature of financial markets and give you a REAL EDGE for investing in stocks.

Poor Richard should be traded in tax-efficient account, where taxes are delayed for many years. The easiest way is to open a 'Traditional IRA' (Individual Retirement Account) at Vanguard, which will give commission-free access to all of their mutual funds. Money should be transferred from your bank account into Money Market Fund (ticker VMMXX) first, and stay in there until it’s time to make a ‘Trade’ – an ‘exchange’ between your Money Market fund (cash) and S&P500 fund. The ‘Trade’ of mutual funds happens once a day, on a close of market at 4pm ET, but you have to make sure to have your order in by 3pm. Mutual fund’s end-of-day price is called NAV (Net Asset Value). It’s published couple of hours after market close. NAV is kind of meaningless number, because trade is set in dollar amount (not a share count) – investor gets fractional shares to cover whole amount precisely.

Not all mutual funds created equally, especially when it comes to what they charge. All this great commotion isn’t exactly free, you ‘no. Vanguard is famous for ultra low cost funds. Their ‘500 Index Fund’ VFINX has expense ratio of 0.16%, meaning you pay them $1.60 for every $1000 invested per year. They require $3000 to get started with no minimum for additional contributions.
This and other information is available here:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0040&FundIntExt=INT

Another popular kind of retirement account is '401K' – same thing, only you get it thru your employer. 401K will come with a list of different mutual funds, often from non-related providers. In this case your choices are limited by whatever somebody picked for investment options. Usually, there will be some kind of S&P500 fund, but don’t trust the name – find this fund’s information, its description and facts from their own website. By law, everything has to be explained in plain English.

401K from your job may be the way to get into some mutual funds you wouldn’t qualify for on your own. For example, Vanguard offers that same ‘500 Index Fund’ as Admiral Shares (VFIAX), that have even lower expense ratio, but require $10K initial investment. 401K removes this obstacle – they allow you to start from zero. And of course, there is a mother of all S&P500 funds – ‘Institutional Index Fund’ (VINIX), with 5 Million minimum and unbelievable 0.04% cost. That is 40 cents for $1000 invested per year… I have seen it. It was used in relative’s 401K without minimum requirements. No problem.

Vanguard family of S&P500 Index funds is the largest in the World, running nearly 500 Billion dollars!

Few more things.
     There are limits to how much of tax-deferred money can be contributed every year. You can’t just move a load of money into tax-deferred account – they have to be accumulated there over time, year after year. “Little strokes fell Great oaks”, as Poor Richard said.
     Many 401K offer ‘A Match’ – when your employer is matching some of your contributions. Make sure to set up an account in such way that all deposits/contribution go into Money Market Fund, otherwise they could just deposit it randomly into any mutual fund in account or even open a new one (I’ve seen it. Stupid, right).
     Don’t go buying mutual funds thru your local bank branch. They will charge you commissions, or there will be a ‘Load’ (fee for selling), or something else. It’s just not the way to do it. Be serious and treat this thing like your own little business on a side. Open an account at Vanguard or Fidelity. Consider it carefully. You may have this account for a long-long, long, long time.

I am not affiliated with Vanguard and not making an advertisement here.
I have been a client of Vanguard for many years and own VFINX because of reasons outlined above and some others. There are many other mutual funds based on S&P500 Index, so if you happened to get a different ‘Tool’, make sure to do RTFM – Read The Fucking Manual… (tips hat)

----------------------------------------------------
.this is a second article in 'Poor Richard' series.
Read Part 1: Poor Richard. Introduction.
-reading part 2-
----------------------------------------------------

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Poor Richard. Introduction.




It was a windy and cold winter of 1992. George Bush (father) threw up all over Japanese Prime Minister, Boris Yeltsin decided to stop targeting US cities with nuclear bombs and one young Russian immigrant got his first job in America. Guy knew nothing about stock market, and everybody around him were in a same haze of ignorant bliss, infused with taste of Corona and sweet aroma of fine Mexican bud. Nobody told that young lad about importance of saving, retirement, inflation or a growing tech boom, about to sweep this young continent from West coast to his nearest suburbs. It would be nice to send him a letter from 25 years into the future: "Goblin, put $100 into certain mutual fund according to this specific plan, based on these few rules. Do it once a month, spending only 30 minutes, and after a while you will have a life-changing sum of money. Use this 'Poor Richard' method diligently and do not waver from the original plan - for your rewards will be plenty and satisfaction immense."

I am sending this letter from the future to a new generation of green whippersnappers: Goblin, do it now!


Let’s face it, a young single foreigner or a kid out of school, or a college graduate with student loans and uncertain prospects, all are highly unlikely to be savers and investors. First of all, it is nearly impossible to save any money at-all if you don’t have a steady income. Budgeting is very hard without a regular job, because you never know when your next pay-check is coming, so whatever cash is saved should be kept for a rainy day. Secondly, even if you have a job, there are never-ending expenses, bills, ‘keeping up with a Jones’s’, vacations that always cost more than anticipated, kids, gifts… there is never any money left over… 


As Poor Richard said (in 1749): “The Art of getting Riches consists very much in THRIFT. All Men are not equally qualified for getting Money, but it is in the Power of every one alike to practice this Virtue.” The trick is to save so little, that is makes no difference on your monthly budget. The kind of a sum that can be chipped away little by little from everyday expenses by frugal and sensible money management. 
“Save and Have – every nickel makes a Mickle”, instructs Poor Richard.

One Hundred Dollars per month. A cup of Starbucks coffee per day. A movie for four, or a dinner out for two. Bottle of whiskey and an 1/8th. Only $100 per month… will become a very serious pile of money, if you wait, save, invest and practice basic money management skills. In this series of ‘Poor Richard’ articles I will explain exactly how to do it, with step-by-step instructions and my own observations, but I want to caution my dear readers that (in words of Jesse Livermore) “the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own efforts in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions."


In order to make money in The Market I need to answer these 4 questions:
WHAT to buy, WHEN to do it, HOW to bet, WHY to sell.


I will address all these topics in due course, and will lay out my logic as best as I can, so a patient reader can absorb this method, shape it to fit his own personality and circumstances in order to continue using it on their own for many decades into the future. The goal is to use ‘Poor Richard Method’ objectively and independently, without relying on (always) fake news, vague economic theories and unscrupulous market commentators.


Basic tenets of Poor Richard Method are really not a secret and plastered all over the internet as well as numerous books. You can go to Vanguard.com for all the charts and graphs you ever wanted to see, with loads of ‘scientific’ papers used to support their wild claims. Or you can read Malkiel’s “Random walk down Wall Street” for everything you ever wanted to know about financial markets and investments, but where afraid to ask. Everybody talks about ‘long-term’ investing, buy and hold, stay the course, don’t worry… and all their results are ‘hypothetical’ or estimated. 

In reality – something completely different happens… and you lose money.

This ‘Poor Richard’ series of articles are designed as a process of self-discovery, guided by solid principles and strict rules. 

It offers a sensible roadmap for a responsible investor, the one that understands meaning and value of Wealth.

"The design is to let the reader form his own opinion in a sensible way". - W.P.Hamilton

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.this is a first article in 'Poor Richard' series.
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Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Consumer and Services DART


This is a third occurrence of DART method producing a more or less homogeneous results.
The setting for this scan (FinViz link) follow most of DART v2 guidelines, except:
a. A 2% threshold for dividends is removed. Any divi is good enough.
b. Volume requirements are reduced to 300K. We've been trading on lower volumes for-awhile.
Out of 69 stocks - more than third are financials.
Some technology is still here, but it's a played out theme... back in 2016 (post link).

Over half of Best List can be characterized by Consumer driven theme, heavily skewed to Service sector.
From clothes, stores and recreation to business needs - Consumer & Services DART (C&S) got it all, plus more.
I took a liberty to add some building materials to compliment industrial supplies; also medical lab seemed like a good fit for Medicaid processor (MMS) and employment agency (RHI).
C&S has everything from exterminator (ROL) to elegant blue box (TIF)... like it's a reflection of our 'Consumer Service' economy... or something...
There are few stocks of this kind just beyond a threshold of this list, and if my suspicion is correct, there will be more to come. Initial selection isn't set in stone either - some of today's candidates will drop off the list.

C&S will run as a typical DART method experiment.
10 equal size positions, about 3300 each, with generous cash reserve - for 35K portfolio.
Standard DART rules apply.
I would run it with real money, but I don't have enough.
Besides, I trade DART v2, which will pick up some of these one way or another. (tips hat)

Browser window needs to be adjusted so these groups are seen 3 across. This way almost every row is united by common theme, with best candidate selected for portfolio.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NTRI,FL,COLM,COST,TJX,ROST,TIF,ILG,CCL,BC,THO,LUV|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SCS,AAN,ROL,MMS,RHI,GNTX,WST,PKI,XRAY|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MSM,FAST,WSO,EXP,MLM,SNA,ITT,AOS,DHI,ODFL,LSTR,KNX|B|P5,3,3|0

 FINviz Link for above stocks.

These stocks don't pay much dividends - I don't expect this portfolio to yield more that 1.3% (if that).
More than half grow their earnings at double-digit rate, but sales are harder to juice up (thou I hope it will improve).
A good third has no debt at-all.
IMNSHO, every one of these has a potential to go up by 50% or more in a year or less.
How they get there is another story.

This is a test! 
No real money will be traded, but I will keep a virtual trading account with (near) real records. 

This is a link for Market-Watch simulator game, for comparison and tracking purposes.
www.marketwatch.com/game/c-and-s-dart
Please note that while Market-Watch seems to trade correctly, it's results are not entirely realistic.
Also, it does not account for dividends at-all.

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 .to follow articles in this series - select 'DART' label on a right sidebar.
Read these key posts:
Original DART Article
Loaded Gun - results and observations
DART v2
Dart v2. System Start
Dart v2. Portfolio Check

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

VIDEO: Winter T Review and S&P500 Trend

In this video I review projections of Advance-Decline Time Symmetry with center post on December 1, 2016. This "Winter T' was originally identified in December (post link) and later updated in January (post link). Although i had some concerns about validity of this T, it worked out very well and guided stock market higher without any meaningful pullback.

There still remains a matter of unresolved "Nested T' with centerpost on January 19, 2017, identified only a few days after center post was fixed. Here, the initial projection is already satisfied, but "Nested T' displayed some strange behavior in a beginning of February, which leads me to believe that remaining projections for March 17 and especially April 4 will most likely target a low (give or take 3-4 days).

My Advance-Decline Indicator (MADI) is under 'Zero" line, indicating unfavorable period for stocks.
S&P500 Trend analysis, based on custom Keltner channels, shows market as overextended and on a cusp of imminent correction. Based on prior occurrences, this dip may be about 7% (or as far down as 2200SPX). Caution is required, accordingly I carry about 40% cash balance in main account, but my approach will remain flexible and subject to change based on constantly evolving variety of possible outcomes.


Monday, February 6, 2017

Mindless Idleness

I generally don't read market-related blogs, so not to get influenced by somebody's opinion, but today I got a terrible back pain, had a hard time concentrating on my work and was looking for a brief distraction. One of my favorite writers is a very smart Molecool of EvilSpeculator.com - probably the best place in the interwebs for un-biased opinion on a markets, actionable trading setups and time-tested wisdom. Plus, he writes beautifully - so I always enjoy his style and try to learn something every time.
Lo and behold, the beginning of his post was all about yesterdays Super Bowl - the game that turned dramatically to the benefit of underdog. I don't watch sports in general and would never bet money on a game, but apparently there where million dollar bets on a favorite team to win... with expected results. Constant game fixing is well documented and many cases proven in court, so it bedazzles me why anybody would gamble on sports... but I digress.

What follows is copied from today's article (including a picture at top left) and comment section.
http://evilspeculator.com/advancing-positions/

Molecool begins:
"Okay, so let’s get this out of the way once and for all. I can totally understand if you don’t care that much about American Football and may just have better things to do than spend your weekends watching 22 guys in helmets and spandex have at each other. But if the annual Super Bowl doesn’t make your heart jump at least a little then you may as well just buy yourself a ticket to 1980 Soviet Russia and stay there."

That was followed by some gobbledygook about quarterback and his wife, but it was already enough to set me off:


Friday, January 27, 2017

VIDEO: T Theory Observations 1-2017. Nested T.

Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

I discovered a small T, nested inside larger 'Winter T' (post link).
Also I updated target dates for 'Winter T', to correct for a discrepancy due to how my charting service accounts for future dates.

Any way I look at it - there is a period of heightened volatility in near future and no top projection dates past March 1, 2017





Wednesday, December 21, 2016

VIDEO: T Theory Observations 12-2016

Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

'Winter T' projects tops and bottoms for Stock Market in January and February 2017.
Upon closer inspection I discovered a T with center posts in November and possibly in December of this year. Because 'Winter T' is too short in duration, has questionable center post for 'Last Low' and some other concerns I explain in video - I don't consider these time projections as reliable for top placement. However, if Advance-Decline Line reverses and falls going into some of these dates - then there is a high chance that 'Time Symmetry' actually points to a bottom date and will be useful to find a buyable dip.

Considering that Rate T (post link) projects a Stock Market Lows in spring of 2017 and then again in summer, I think that there are opportunities ... for which cash will be needed.
I want to remind that T Theory is not a trading tool, but a 'range of options' that will have to be evaluated by other measures in real time.



Tuesday, December 20, 2016

VIDEO: T Theory Study 2012-2016

A 5 year study of T Theory - a method of analyzing general investment trends using time symmetry.
Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

From "A 1997 Introduction to T Theory" by Terrence Laundry:
'The Law of Matched Trend Time' basically states that duration over which investors can obtain 'superior equity returns' will always be equal to the previous time period in which returns were subnormal. A simpler way to put it is to say: the market can only 'make strong run' as long as it previously 'rested'.


As a result of this study... we run out of T...
 ...unless...

Sunday, December 18, 2016

VIDEO: Rate T Report. 2015 Study

Completed 2015 Rate T correctly forecast 2016 market lows, by providing multiple estimates over period of time when buyable dips are likely to appear in S&P500.

This is based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry, who discovered these Rate T's back in 1970's (I think) and used this concept quite successfully for many years. Generally it states that a period of time it takes for interest Rates to fall from high to low is approximately equal to period of time from interest Rate low to important low in Stocks.
He acknowledged difficulties with accuracy of these projections since rates went into historic downtrend in 1980's and also during times of heavy intervention.


1st High to 1st Low in Rate = 1st Bottom in Stocks (in 2015)
Highest High to Panic Low in Rate = 1st Bottom in Stocks (in 2015)
Last High to Lowest Low in Rate = Final Lowest Low in Stocks (in 2016)



Friday, December 9, 2016

Faber 25

This is to test a persistent investment allocation recommendation by famous prognosticator, commentator extraordinaire and Asian night life connoisseur (secretly pony-tailed) Mark Faber aka Dr. Doom. For as long as I can remember, he advised to put equally 25% into stocks, bonds, real estate and gold and maintain it indefinitely.

For the purpose of this experiment I pick SPY, TLT, IYR, GDX, but I will be first to admit that his advise needs to be taken more broadly to be used sensibly. Obviously, his real estate holdings are mostly actual ownership of rental and vacation properties and not a REIT ETF (IYR) - stocks of real-estate investment trusts, which also include prisons, nursing homes, land and more of god knows what. Faber's recommendations about gold couldn't be more specific - physical ownership in immediate possession or in a vault outside of US (rich people shit). And I'm sure that stocks and bonds are more diversified than just S&P500 and US Treasuries 20+ years to maturity. Having acknowledge all this, my interest is in systematic investment strategies using financial instruments only, preferably in tax-efficient account (IRA, 401k etc), using low cost mutual funds if possible.

I start back-testing from January 3, 2012, as I have vivid memories of this recent period as well as my own real-life records and results to compare against. Symbols picked for portfolio have adjusted prices available, so they already have dividend income build into historical prices, and closely resemble actual gains or losses. There will be a noticeable difference in Treasuries and REIT's mutual funds actual account balance vs these simulated results, but only if held continuously for more than a year. Mutual fund will actually make more money, because of more efficient re-investment of dividends - basically investor makes money on the money faster.

Part 1. Straight 25.
     If I put equal amount into SPY, TLT, IYR, GDX on 1/3/2012 and held until today, I would make about 25% profit in total. This is not annualized. It's all of it. Minimum Standard Position size $3000, for 12K initial investment, grows to a bit over 15K. Mind you that S&P doubled over this period, and even Bond Fund had a 50% move. Clearly it was a Gold fund that torpedoed investment results. Even recent rally in gold shares was unable to turn a tide here - gold fund is only about 8% of allocation now, and sits a whopping 60% lower than 5 years ago (it was down 75%)... some store of value... he-he.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,TLT,IYR,GDX&n=1243&O=011000
     Even more alarming is how this sad state of affairs came to be. See, for a first year Faber's Straight 25 was fine, even up about 10% by September 2012, but when Gold market took a turn for the worst, all gains were lost and account was in a red a year later. These 10% gains will not be seen again until spring of 2014, after which portfolio rose rather steadily and was up about 40% at some point in August of 2016. Clearly, it would be idiotic to sit on such mis-allocation for a better part of 5 years without at-least an attempt to re-balance or alter investment mix.

Part 2. Five for 25.
     Traditional approach to asset allocation is to re-balance as soon as 1 or more components deviate by more than 5% from a model. Of course it was a Gold fund that caused first re-balance during summer of 2012 by falling to 19% of portfolio for 2 consecutive weeks. Second re-balance came in Spring of 2013. This time not only Gold fund fell as low as 16% allocation, but also S&P rose to 31%. As a result of this, the big winner was cannibalized to replenish a worst loser. And it would not be a last time. End of 2013 brought back exactly the same kind of rotation, only this time account balance was actually DOWN -5.7%.
     2013 was one of those fantastic years when everything went up... except gold... and it took Faber's 25 with it. Gold remained the cause of portfolio re-balancing in 2014 and 2015, during which time account showed temporary gains of about 10%, but ended about flat for the beginning of rip-roaring 2016. Now, we are talking YEARS with nothing to show for it.
     2016 was kind to Dr. Faber. After briefly dipping in a red (again), portfolio took off with powerful gold rally and was up 40% by summer. There it needed a re-balancing, only this time gold was largest position in portfolio and S&P smallest. Pay attention... same 40% as Straight 25 version from above. This re-balanced portfolio now sits just shy of 15K total... Basically, re-balance or don't, you are fakt (german accent).

Part 3. Supply 25 Plus 5.
     What is this crazy infatuation with Gold? Or trust in Bonds? Or hatred of Stocks? Why not think independently and let a collective wisdom of market place to guide ... and blah-blah-blah. Since re-balance naturally comes at-least once a year, I can use a long moving average to avoid a fund in downtrend. Ones a fund goes under - it's sold and money supplied to remaining positions. Trade will require 2 weeks away from average to trigger, at which point entire account will re-balance to accommodate equally each position in portfolio. A deviation of 5% will also cause portfolio to re-balance. Mutual funds are perfect for this, as they allow fractional share count and don't have any trading costs (they also require 1 month hold, but it's not a problem - rather a benefit, and I proved it previously).

     I have an actual experience in what happened here and will rely on it in my estimates, but only as a confirmation. Selling Bonds in 2013 and buying them back in 2014 was as evident back then, as it clearly shows in the chart. Only I was short bonds in 2013 ;-). Both Stocks and REIT's corrected in 2015-2016, but didn't break the moving average, just as my bullish bias in System 14 didn't break over this invisible bear market of 14-16. All this would be even easier with 'Supply-25' portfolio that steadily risen at over 10% per annum and stood at 50% gains back in 2015 (give or take some).
     Clearly, Gold was knocked out by 2013 and I used late exit in my back-test. I actually sold all gold stocks back in 2011 and was generally cold to it for a while. Gold was no longer an option until 2016, but even that trade yielded no profit in back-test. My experience with Gold stocks in 2013-2016 had been wildly different, considering that I bought dips and managed to sell enough during summer 2016 run-up that what's left costs me practically nothing....
But it's not a part of this exercise...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40313652174
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,IWM,EEM,TLT,HYG,IYR,GDX|D|A1,126,1|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,IWM,EEM,TLT,HYG,IYR,GDX

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

FMSUP Shuffle

This post is to update watch-list for Utilities Portfolio (FMSUP).

read this FMSUP article (post link) to understand what is going on.

There was one important change to portfolio construction. It was started with 6 positions, but represented 20% of my account, which proved to be too much. At some point in the beginning of the year the whole thing felt like one giant utility position with tech and industrial kicker. Of course it's not normal and immediate remedy required was a reduction of utilities portfolio. Since I couldn't cut position size, I decided to go with 4 stocks instead of 6.

Two positions sold (PPL in Feb and ES in June) more than covered a deficit that darn mr. Simmons left me, so I felt it was fair to put whole ordeal behind and just continue with sensible portfolio management. Although I would prefer to diversify into 6 or (even better) 10 stocks, FMSUP seems to be doing just fine even with smaller number of positions, and leads me to believe that I can safely
Forget Mr Simmons Utility Portfolio
and just do my own thing.

BTW, I beat the pants off him, XLU and Ass-n-Pee index too... ;-)

FMSUP as of 12/7/16 (this will change soon - I'm rotating)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XLU,FSUTX,PNW,PCG,ES,exc|B|P5,3,3|0

Presently, there are still about 50 companies that satisfy selection criteria, but I noticed that I'm pretty much shuffling thru the same stocks. They just seem to come up no matter how I look at a pool of possible candidates. So in a coming weeks and months, I will use this Shuffle List to (hopefully) streamline rotation process in order to further increase returns.
FinViz Link

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XLU,FSUTX,PCG,PNW,ES,EXC,SO,ATO,AWK,NEE,DUK,D|B|J[XLU]|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AGR,NYLD,HE,ETR,OGE,SJI,DTE,SCG,AEE,PPL,PEG,NWE|B|J[XLU]|0

I expect that Shuffle list will change in the future, as we are scraping a bottom of barrel here in utilities. Monster rally that started late last year run out of steam during summer months and turned into a nasty, but orderly correction. Most utility stocks are under 200ma and 10-20% off recent highs. Despite the carnage, this is all quite ordinary and historically able to produce a durable bottom somewhere here. For everything else - there are rules...

FMSUP trades and occasional commentary are published on my private Twitter feed 
(just send me a request - its FREE for now):  https://twitter.com/SWID_iBergamot

Friday, November 18, 2016

DART v2 note

At this time all notes, observations and orders of DART v2 Method pertain directly to my main account and being traded with real money. Still, I would like to caution an excited follower that this remains not a thoroughly tested strategy and money can be lost. You are responsible for your own decisions with your own money (tips hat).
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I used September and October dips to enter DART v2 positions, via a synchronization process, outlined in 'Dart Sync' article (post link). DART rule-set was sufficient to navigate softness due to Trump pre-election Slump, and portfolio took off from November low like a bat out of hell.

At time like this, when these six stocks are ripping tits to upside, it is important to remember that DART is not a trend following system, but a dynamic rotational method. Meaning: since there are no losers in portfolio - I must sell a big winner, add profit to cash reserves and re-allocate Standard Position Size into something that didn't rally yet. All according to rule b2 from from original article (post link)

MSM has been in Dart since end of summer. It gave me little trouble, although it was one of possible sell candidates after October low. Since then MSM rallied 20% and presently best performer. As a result of price appreciation, stock yields 2.1% - smallest in portfolio and kind of low by DARTv2 selection criteria. Ex-dividend date was about a week ago, so its a money in a bank, however small... still "one to-day better than two to-morrow" (as Poor Richard would say). Further red flag is short interest, standing at 12% of float (read about 'short qualifier' here (post link). While more like a recommendation rather than requirement, I don't like these expressions of doubt about Dart Picks.
Stop for MSM is 82.22 and will be aggressively trailed until caught.

(UPDATE: stop was trailed for almost a month until MSM was finally sold on 12/14/16 at $91.58 for about 25% gain in 3 months... unbelievable...)

This is Dart v2 Portfolio now:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ADP,ILG,MSM,CMI,DRH,VLO|B|P5,3,3|0

Portfolio can be viewed in MarketWatch for illustration purposes. as DART v2 Game (link):
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/dart-v2/portfolio/holdings?p=1741728&name=i%20Bergamot
(MarketWatch virtual game started 11/9/2016 and expected to end sometime in 2017)

DART v2 trades and occasional commentary are published on my private Twitter feed 
(just send me a request - its FREE for now):  https://twitter.com/SWID_iBergamot
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DART Pick
 MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) is a tool, parts and materials supplier for industrial clients. Think of it as Home Depot, but for real. Metalworkers, small factories, machine shops, transportation... you name it... when its serious business - people go to MSC Direct- 'Built To Make You Better'. Its not a retail shop, although they got offices all over the place, mostly everything is shipped from few major warehouses, that keep a cool million of in-stock items.

MSM debt is at manageable level, with small dividend, cash on a books and almost 3 Bil in sales - its a solid company and it almost pains me to sell such a beauty. Alas, rules are rules (that's what they are there for) and stock has to go.  I am looking forward to a possibility of re-purchasing MSM at lower levels, following obligatory 1 month lock-out period.
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 .to follow articles in this series - select 'DART' label on a right sidebar.
Read these key posts:
Original DART Article
Loaded Gun - results and observations
DART v2
Dart v2. System Start
Dart v2. Portfolio Check

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

System 12 Update. 11-2016

I am surprised to see how little changed Mega Dozen (MD) and Second Dozen (SD) have been over a past year or so.

This is MD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,GOOGL,MSFT,BRK/B,XOM,AMZN,FB,JNJ,JPM,GE,WFC,T|B|P5,3,3|0

This is SD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?PG,WMT,BAC,CVX,VZ,PFE,V,KO,MRK,INTC,CSCO,ORCL|B|P5,3,3|0

FinViz link
Currently, only few stocks are Disqualified and really only one from MD ( T for sure and FB by a smidge), while half of MD+SD are Not Available... quite a predicament...

MD Control was recently re-balanced and updated. It remains remarkably correlated to S&P500 index. I continue to maintain it as a Motif for tracking and comparison:
https://trader.motifinvesting.com/motifs/mega-dozen-Ftnb1cNJ#/overview

This post will not update with recent activities (like I used to do). Instead, I set up a simulation at MarketWatch.  This whole 'virtual account' project turned out to be a major disappointment - I will write about all this in detail later. Meanwhile, this link will have all recent activities in (close to) market representation, but mostly for illustration purposes, rather than for record and comparison.
System 12 Game link
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/system-12/portfolio/holdings?p=1741728&name=i%20Bergamot
(MarketWatch virtual game started 11/9/2016 and expected to end on 12/30/2016)

This is System 12 AMD today:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOOGL,MSFT,PG,JPM,CVX,MRK,BRK/B,WMT,WFC|B|P5,3,3|0
with pending sell orders for GOOGL and PG;
with pending buy orders for GE and XOM;

S12 hasn't been fully loaded for-awhile, and it doesn't look like it will happen tomorrow, but I will leave it up to market to sort out. Large cap 'growth' stocks had been laggards on this Trump Stump rally, while 'value' group leads and making decisive new highs.. The whole market split into stocks that rallied like crazy and stocks that dropped like dead. S12 positions managed to side step most of carnage and keep some top performers, with overall results slightly north of zero since summer top. Simultaneously, portfolio suffered only trivial draw-down of about 2% (about $800) at the depths of Trump Slump, which is nothing to worry about and has already been recovered and exceeded.

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System 12 Select - AO

This is one of the ideas I am actively working on right now.
Basic recipe is to take MD and upper portion of SD, rank it according to sales, then use Arnott Overlay (post link) to determine 12 stocks in an order of financial 'importance'.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,AAPL,BRK/B,MSFT,T,JPM,GE,WMT,JNJ,PG,GOOGL,AMZN|C|J[SPY]|0

Naturally, this list serves as a blue-print on 'what to buy in panic', in case a big and sudden collapse happens and one needs a good selection of major stocks in an order of importance, although it is not apparent at present time.
This Select group can be treated as a limited universe of stocks, to serve as basis for further selection based on Relative Strength (RS). The goal is to be invested into stocks exhibiting better price performance relative to S&P500 tracking ETF - SPY, and to stay away from laggards. Concomitantly, RS can be used to pick a minor bottom, but only with general guidelines of cycle analysis (I'm working out some kinks there) and within the framework of System 12 Method.

Because selection process is inherently flawed and prone to misjudgement, inevitably S12S-AO will miss some big winners and catch catastrophic losers, if only by chance.
Equally, the opposite is entirely possible...

Test portfolio in simulated environment at MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/system12-select
(MarketWatch virtual game started 11/9/2016 and expected to end on 12/30/2016)

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To understand what this article is about, make sure to READ these:
Part 1: System 12. American MegaDozen. Introduction.
Part 2: System 12. Portfolio Construction and Rules 
Part 3: System 12. Trade Management 
Part 4: System 12. Performance and Risk
Part 5: System 12. Portfolio Initiation
and remember that you are responsible for your own decisions with your own money (tips hat)
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

See What I Do (SWID) Subscription

SWID is not a typical advisory service.
First of all, I am not an RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) - so anything I publish can not be considered as a legitimate investment recommendation, as far as CFTC RULE 4.41 is concerned. Traditional disclaimer, attached to all stock trading websites, clearly states that everything you pay for is a complete bul%$(t. Yet people sign-up for exorbitant fees, follow vague or pin-headed advise and ... lose money, while wondering "How come when everybody taking profits, I only cut losses? Must be something wrong with ME?"

Investing is very hard by itself, and especially considering proliferation of scam websites (link-lol) dedicated to endless pump-and-dump of overhyped stocks with intent to facilitate swift distribution of institutionally held shares. Illegal? What do I know? But those services always have the best writers, the most amazing personalities and fashionable web-page designs.

Fear-mongering blogs are designed to mislead and confuse active trading community. They have busy and very engaging comment sections, with variety of opinions and ravishing discussions. Come to think of it, many posters are so engaged that I wonder: "Do they even work at all? Some characters comment and tweet so often and in so many different places - I don't know if they have any time left for carrier, or study, or family... Or may be THAT IS their job?" I wouldn't pretend to know, but if I did I won't tell anyway. I'm not stupid.

Then, there are just plain crazy people, with some kind of wrong-footed mission. They are easy to recognize, but hard to avoid. Thankfully, this type usually self-distracts or switches to another fetish du-jour.

I am the fourth kind - The Real Deal!
I make money from speculating in financial markets. It's not a job. I don't work for anybody. I manage my own small account - family money, saved over a course of few years - without any specific expectations, but with goal to eventually withdraw more money than was originally put in.

While I don't make any claims about my past or expected performance, I publish my Strategies right here on this blog with reviews of gains and losses, for everyone to read and learn. After 15 years of being involved in Markets, these are the ONLY ways I found to make money in Stocks for a small individual investor. I believe I possess wealth of useful information, practical experience and sensible disposition, so my knowledge can be sold for a modest sum. The only way it can work is to give subscriber an ability to
See What I Do 
in real time, with real money.

SWID Subscription is an annual membership fee that gives an access to a private Twitter Account @SWID_iBergamot, where I announce all my trades, occasional commentary and some pertinent thoughts, concerning Systems and Methods published on my blog. At present time, Systems are being rolled out gradually and according to market conditions, so the subscription service is offered at a low introductory price of $100 per year. 
Think of it as a vote of confidence and support for your humble servant. 
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Enter your Twitter Handle

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UPDATE 5/16/2017.
It has been almost 8 months since I made this offer on the interwebs.
During this time I did not receive a single  subscription payment, had no requests for additional information and don't have any followers on Twitter. In the interim, I was offering a FREE access to above private Twitter account, yet to no avail. Not one request or question in comment section. Meanwhile, S&P went up 15%, but my account is better than 20% to the good. Keeping in mind that gold portfolio has been a dead-weight and reduced total gains by a bit over 10%. Gold and miners was never a part of the subscription offering because these are legacy positions taken years ago, based on now inactive System 8 (I will write about great promise, infallible premise and ultimate put-down of S8 sometime in the future. It's not a story of losses, but one of a struggle and bitter-sweet triumph).

Based on total lack of interest from general public, I therefore canceling all subscription offers, stop tweeting my trades, but will keep this blog open and free for the benefit of humanity.
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Friday, September 23, 2016

DART Sync

Coming on a heels of System 12 Portfolio Initiation article (post link), I want to explain a present stage in DART Strategy development. I published its principals and methods right here on this blog, over a course of more than a year, and finally DART reached an important milestone (I think).

Up until now, Dart v2 portfolio was running in simulation. I started this virtual account a month ago  with intention to illustrate how a system has to be started and managed (links on a bottom of this post). But that was only one reason. More pressing was my own need to test daily system management.  I needed to make Dart a part of my daily routine, to make sure I don't forget to check it, and also to see if I can go away for day or two without this thing blowing up. I had no time to waste, because as wrote here (post link): " ...it comes at time when my Main Account is 30%ish in cash, so I will have needed funds to allocate if/when good opportunity comes along...  I would do it with real money, had the market not be so high and time of the year not so treacherous".

Well, the market came down a bit and time is progressing, with September almost behind us. Meanwhile, Dart v2 went thru severe draw-down to the tune of almost 10%. I would never forgive myself, if I wouldn't use this drop to put it into production. Real world results will be the final arbiter for DART Strategy, and to be faithfully reported in this space.

Practically, there are only two ways to Start a System - you buy them all at once, or you don't. :)
Lucky for me, I don't have to bite this bullet, as system already started, suffered some losses, bought some new stocks and now ready to be synchronized. This is a unique characteristic of Dart method - it is 'Always ON'. The portfolio has to be fully invested into 6 stocks, selected from Best List - a scan of available database of fundamental information, looking for good business, priced at good value. Best List is constantly changing, offering ever expanding selection of sensibly priced stocks of best companies in USA, for immediate investment. Stocks in a portfolio (winners and losers) are being sold in efficient manner, providing endless rotation which can be used to seamlessly enter into DART Strategy. Just like a surfer who needs to get in sync with waves in an ocean to catch a thrill ride, a real world trading account can be synchronized with Dart Portfolio and (hopefully) surge to profits.

Use this logic for Sync:
-if  stock in simulated portfolio qualifies under Best List rules - then buy it as you would buy any new position
-if stock in simulated portfolio has a sell stop, or a likely candidate to be sold - then don't buy it
-wait for by-weekly rotation to enter remaining positions

This is Dart v2 Simulated Portfolio now:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ADP,IILG,MSM,CMI,SCS,GNTX|B|P5,3,3|0

SCS was bought in simulated account on Sept 9, dropped about 15%, but can not be sold due to minimum 1 month holding period. Since it's not in Best List now - don't buy it.
CMI has a stop-loss order in - don't buy it.
IILG was a worst performer, recovered somewhat and needs to be watched for a possible sell - so don't buy that either.
These commentary are published on my private Twitter feed (just send me a request - its FREE for now): https://twitter.com/SWID_iBergamot



I entered ADP, MSM, GNTX in Standard Position Size between 15th and 20th of September.
While all future trades of Dart v2 Strategy will be done with real money, I need to remind all two of my kind readers that this is still an experiment and I have no idea how this system will perform in crisis or bear market.

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.to follow articles in this series - select 'DART' label on a right sidebar.
Read these key posts:
Original DART Article
Loaded Gun - results and observations
DART v2
Dart v2. System Start
Dart v2. Portfolio Check
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