Daily Global Economic Calendar

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Panem et Circenses

     What the hell was it yesterday, on 2/27/13?
First of all, it had nothing to do with housing data. Reaction at 10am was timid at best. What happened was a relentless short squeeze, as /ES open interest stood at whooping 3.16mil cars. Can't wait until 9am to see if it gotten smaller - I don't see how people would not cover shorts after this. Now, with late-comer longs already stopped-out, its a time for over-eager shorts to be taken to woodshed. Besides, how can anybody have a directional forecast with gigantic moves on VIX, big-range up and down days, and all political BS on both sides of the pond. Big boys are shaking the tree to see what dislodges, I don't want any part of it.

      I didn't exit QQQ short via QID. Although my stop was above 67Q, I decided to wait a bit. Q's still the weakest of indexes and sold-off heavy right before close. There will be no point of keeping this short above todays high and 67.80. I hate to hedge. Makes me so confused - am I long or short? It's like I am not limiting losses, but guaranty that I loose a bit whichever way the market goes. GRRR... One single position QID gives me so much headache, while GEO pushes into new high. Prisons is a leading industry? Buckweats...

UPDATE 2/28 AH:
SLD: QID 27.11  -4%
What a horrible mess I made out of this trade. It was all wrong, shorted at the low - covered at the high. What the hell am I thinking? This is not oops, this is bad-bad-bad.. Atleast I did it with 1pos only, so no big damage.

     Which brings me to ongoing Treasure Hunt.
Panem et Circenses is latin for "Bread and Circuses" (or bread and games). Pretty good place to start, considering a peculiar situation with grains and latest legislation about online gaming. Play legal poker online, while high on legal pot and who cares how expensive munchies are...

        Ag-complex
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,soyb,corn,bal,moo,tsco,de,cnh,lnn,mon,mos|B|P5,3,3
       Soy via SOYB is ready to go today - strongest of grains. JJG has to be bought back above 53. Cotton via BAL really doesn't belong to this group, but its strongest of all softs, buy above recent high. Although MON has a law-suit going on, hard to argue with its straight. TSCO need to buy asap.

    UPDATE 2/28 AH:
    BOT:
TSCO - 104.10
JJG     -  52.04 Half pos.   I really wasn't suppose to buy it until tomorrow, but all grains where strong in the morning. Put limit order for SOYB, but it was not getting filled. This is my third time going for grains.
BAL run away while I wasn't watching, now need to wait for pullback.
DRYS - 1.98 Half pos. I was staking it ever since breakout in January, with my eyes on 1.8-1.9 level. Needs to hold it.
FB     - 27.19 Half pos. Bot on close. High volume hammer. Last couple of days looked corrective. May be it will not get to 25.
FNV  - 48.36 Half pos
GDX  - 37.40 Half pos.
Damn the torpedoes! No stop for now. Bullish percent miners is at 3 or 4 for a reason - they all are in downtrend. Will watch for a day or two, then add.
I outlined some thoughts on PM and miners in previous post. Today's double bottom was too good to pass-up.  I was keeping an eye an FNV and RGLD. They are not so much miners, but a royalty companies. Last summer they where some of the first to bottom and then rally hard, for whatever the reason

To be sure - I am NOT buying the dip. I'm going into these selected situations, and lightly - most Half Position Size only.

       Gaming
BOT:
2/27 - MGAM  @ 18.30 half pos

       Pot-trade: I really need to have a detailed look at these companies
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

More on this later...

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.


 Over the next couple of hours I moved  some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
 HAO   - 24.16
 RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn? 
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03  Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO  - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
 2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26  - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what?  VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):
           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing? 

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.

           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.

           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

Friday, February 22, 2013

The Fly Review of My Blog

This site is a god damned mess. Change the name of the site immediately. Why is there a moon widget on the side? I want to punch that thing in the face. Stay focused, clean up the site. Websites are not christmas trees. You don’t have to put a toy on every branch. This is a gentleman’s business and your website should reflect that. Your paragraph structure is screwy too. It’s too bad, since this site is updated frequently with decent content. Grade: C-
 My Reply:
 Dear Mr Fly,
Thank you for your detailed review (all 5 lines of it).
I would like to respectfully point out that name of my site is MY name, as I don’t associate myself with any group of bloggers or any investment style. I run money. I don’t answer to anybody. i-Bergamot. Why? Cus I like it!
As far as Moon – point your browser directly here http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2012/08/read-moon-phases-im-not-crazy.html. Look it up – there is plenty info on internets and quite a few books.
Just like Daily Global Economic Calendar, these are MY tools, I keep them visible to me at all times.
Those god-damned ads do make it look like a christmas tree, that I agree.
As far as paragraph structure – Fuck You !
How is that?
C-
My P/L strongly disagrees.
It gave me distinct pleasure to reply in these this compact and beautiful words: "Fuck You".
It's the best testament to my independence and self-worth.

      I made this blog originally as a necessity, so I don't have to carry my journal around with me to office and house-by-the-lake. Than I added few gadgets - Moon (so I don't sell-out on new moon), Sun (I have a whole theory behind that) and other stuff. Global Calendar already proved itself as an invaluable tool.

      Most of all, I didn't copy this from anybody, wasn't taught this in any college-shmolege, nobody gave me tips or recommendations.  All mine. Not for some benefit or ads income (Ads revenues to date $16). Not for fame - I really don't care. Only for my use, so I can run my money better, so I can go back and see what I thought, felt and did at certain key points. So I don't forget.  Someday soon I will do it full time - it's better to learn from small(er) mistakes.

      In the process, I kinda started to like writing. I was never good at it, even at school I was getting B's at best. Guess I didn't have anything good to say. Nowadays I often just re-read my own posts and find myself surprised: "How did I managed to put it just this way? I don't even know these words!"  I like this Bergamot dude - he is like my alternative personality, or something. And he is profitable! In real money!

     O, fantasy investment is always sooo profitable. I've been around investment blogs long enough, and was following phony's long enough to understand - you either blog or you trade. The only guy who did both was Norrin, and trolls did him in pretty quick. Finally he just said: "Fuck You", and disappeared. I don't blame him. He was my great teacher, I'm sorry I lost him, and forever greatful.
      Good Night

        
But Fly’s correct. Proper paragraphing is nine tenths of writing and 9.6 tenths of blog writing.
People will just not get through it if you go on and on, and on… etc.
i Bergamot says:
I’ll see about that ASAP.
thanks


Update 2/23/2013:

         I always tell my kids: "Listen and learn from people who know more than you do".  Following my own advise, I decided to look into this Proper Paragraphing issue. Maaan, there is a lot to learn. Apparently, there is a whole set of rules about structure, indentation, topic and supporting sentences etc.

         Being an avid reader and an amateur thinker does not lead directly into being a good writer. Like any craft, it requires knowledge of inner-workings, learning tricks of the trade and above all - practice. Just writing down my spontaneous mind-farts is not enough. It really has be readable.

         I entered this Fly's Blog Contest on a spur of the moment, without any specific goal in mind. Obviously, iBergamot is neither qualified, nor has any desire to be part of somebody-else's business. I am really done with "partners" of all sorts, but it doesn't mean I should stop learning from The Best. Therefore I must extend a big  thanks to The Fly and Jake Gint for taking time to review my messy dwellings here at iBergamot, and offering an actionable advise.

          With my top hat clenched in a sweaty palm, I stand corrected.

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2013/02/21/the-official-2013-review-of-select-blogs-from-around-the-web-o-sphere/

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Battle of 1510 /ES Continues

1510 /ES presented itself as a resistance in a beginning of February and I noticed that this is where battle lines are drawn here (link).
Well-well, what do you know, this is really where they had the stops. ES had to go past 1510 and this morning System 10 kicked in. I'm using a lighter version, not futures, but SSO. So far so good.

Got step 1 of VIX buy signal.

My A/D indicator closed -470, and that is at-least short term bottom. It can come down some more, but i think most of damage is over.


During the day I surveyed a bunch of internets. Remember how everybody where waiting for a dip to buy? Well, the dip is here, and nobody is buying.  People are bearish as shit, talking about Mark Fabers' down 20%, Tom Demarks' 9-13's.   Nobody is talking about Bergamot's 1600+
Good, that is just how I like it.

          What if I'm wrong? What if 1510 can not be taken over by bulls?
          It's possible.
But my thinking is this: to have a big selloff, the beginning of Bear Market we need broken support, or some kind of formation (double top or something), or moving average cross, or PF bear price objective, or blow-off on large volume... you get my gist. I see bearish engulfing / maribozu candles all over the place, but they have lousy reliability.  So far all I have is Canadian Time magazine cover and  2 of my friends who just found out that there is a Bull Market going on. No joke - people find out about this bull run only a week or two ago. Now they are thinking : "What to invest in?"

I figure we have until tax-day, the LATEST!
I am being very serious now - this bull run is on its last legs, but last leg is always explosive, so...
I am 80%+ invested, long stocks and grains, short bonds and oil until further instructions.

 I'm wondering what industry group will rally the most off this low? Homebuilders?
          BOT:
SSO
XHB
IYR
MJNA added a little at 0.25, just like planned here (link)

More on this later.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

QE-n. The Put-up Job

 The Good Guy is wondering:
"pain (price decrease) incurred on 30 year bonds through selling does not match (percent-wise) the euphoria in stocks"
    My thoughts exactly. But its a fallacy of stock trader wading in Bond Market, and trying to game it with the same tricks. Government bonds is much bigger market than stocks, takes some time to get going.

    I tried to borrow 10k at 3% for 30 years from everybody I know. They just laugh at me. But millions of people give it to treasuries without any second thoughts. Hmm.  Whats important is a fact that there is no active investor alive, who have seen a bear market in US Treasuries. But that is not THE biggest problem. Why?  Because the hard right edge of Long Bond chart is not active investors, but pensions, IRA's, mom-and-pop etc., who have no clue what shit they got themselves into.

      Back here in QE-land:
I don't know what Bearded Clam is buying, but visibly its not Government Bonds.
O, I remember - its Mortgage Backed Bonds (see MBB chart below). What? Also at 6 months low? How can it be - 85bil per month freshly printed Dollars...   Printed Dollars?    /DX must be in a crapper by now. No? Wrong again, you know where dollar stands, and I know your bet on where it goes. (this was directed at Molecool, who was long Dollar at the time of this writing)

     Guys, am I the only one who see complete lack of logic/correlation here.
Call me crazy conspiracy theorist or just a smelly yellow fruit, but I think this QE-n is a total put-up job.

      Fine, I have a theory. Feds are not stupid to buy bonds here - let the price fall and pick it up on a low print. Nah, too cute
Or - Big boys are selling bonds faster than Fed buying. Sell? But to whom?
Or - Bermonkey relaxing on a way to golf club, transfers money from left pocket to right one, books it as a profit, collects a fee...

I really don't know, but my bullshit-o-meter has been stuck on red for months, ever since this post (link)

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Positions, Watch List


...developing...

This is going to be 8th week of non-stop advance.
Forget Tom deMark and his 9's and 13's - that guy is crazy and a fucking idiot.  How i know?  I actually paid money to listen to his blubber years ago, read a book and tested his ideas. Indisputably it's a bullshit, designed to collect fees and confuse muppets. People show his charts on TV, and all are in owe... well even a meteorite strikes a city ones in a hundred years, it doesn't mean we have to live underground, eh.

         Back here, where I run real money:
There may be a problem with oil and entire oil/gas industry. I'm not sure what the problem is, but I see a divergence on daily chart, so starting a short. Half position only for now - all this could be OPEX shenanigans, plus contract is rolling into April.
I think I can control my bearish bias, as I was saying for a while that we are swimming drowning in oil and nat gas, and while natty is historically pretty low already, I really don't understand why oil pushing 100 and not 50. "Peak-oil" my ass - I never bought it for a second. That aside, my stop is above recent high

BOT:
2/19 - SCO Half pos (Short oil)

SLD:
2/20 - ZSL Final half. Sold at target. Total profit on this trade +14%.
2/20 - TSCO 101.75 on stop -2%
2/20 - SLX  47.85 on stop -3%
2/20 - SCTY Half out. 19.10  Really 1/4, I only had half pos on
2/20 - MON 98.76    -4%   Apparently there is a trial going on. I need to be more attentive to company specifics, had I know about litigation, I would never bought it. Hindsight 20/20, oops
2/20 - BHP 77.73 (S12T; BTFT)  $-36.29 Emergency Exit (EE)

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,$CEX,CG,TSLA,JJG,TBT,SLX,IBB,SCTY,CCJ,MON,fb|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EZA,HAO,EWS,RSX,GEO,TAN,ZSL,TSCO|B|P5,3,3

Need to do this review again, especially from stand point of taking profits;

UPDATE 2/21 Fuck taking profits, run for your life.
But seriously, when I have +1% day followed by -1.4% day it's always bad news.
I already booked about 3% profit this year (closed positions), and I prefer to control my risk, rather than hold-n-hope. Lets see how this correction goes, sell weaklings and allocate capital to strongest areas again.

2/20 was a BAD candle on all major averages, but one day doesn't make it a top. Not yet. In fact on 240min ES chart this looks like repeat of 2/4/13. Buyable dip? It's a bull market, you know...

CCJ  -   Support 20.50 - 21. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21. Only have 1/4pos on - its a runner. Last PFT 37 (met). All these PFT met
FB      - Trailing close stop. If this turn doesn't hold - FB goes to 25, where I will look to buy it again.
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met.  More PFT 508-512.
GEO -   Support 32-33   ER 2/21bmo, call 11am.  CXW fell on its earn., but recovered a bit since.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - New highs without touching 20dma. PFT 88 ; 91.50 met. More targets  95;  104
JJG   - Logical stop is under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75 (met). Possible double bottom?  Last PFT 60.30
MON - Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134. SOLD
MOO -Watching reaction to 50dma
SCO -have a Half pos on. Watching reaction to 50dma (USO)
SCTY- New all time high. Support 16-17.50. Only have 1/4pos on 2/21.
SLX  - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72. SOLD
TAN -18-19 is support, then 50dma. Watching
TBT  - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 67 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
TSCO -SOLD
TSLA - Holding.  SR still 21!  37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50;  52; 61
Conference call is a disaster. They shoot rockets into space, but can't get a working phone. Indian CFO is a moron. Down 6% AH.
ZSL - SOLD
EWS -
EZA -liquidate
HAO -2/21 - at support
RSX - Fucking russians - liquidate

Pot-trade
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

S12T
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOOG,BRK/B,GE,BHP|B|P5,3,3

Watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,IGE,sea,DRYS,ORB,GSVC,DDD,RGR,yelp,soda,xlk,xlf|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NIB,HYG,PCY,EEM,ifn,EUO,XHB,IYR,KORS,SWI,XLB,KOL|B|P5,3,3


Short oil and gas?:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?USO,UNG,UGA,SCO,DUG,IGE,XLE,OIH,XOP,AMJ,XES|B|P5,3,3
Graphite (looks little iffy, eh)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CVV,ENTG,GTI,TCK,ZOLT,FDR.V,NGPHF,FCSMF,ENZR|B|P5,3,3


Sunday, February 17, 2013

Other Side of the World

There is life outside of Financial Markets.
Here  is an amazing adventure my friend had in Florida, of all places.
Watch and envy, mother-fuckers
HD link: http://vimeo.com/59097705

video

Dude is an fantastic photographer too.
See for yourself - Main Street Photo and Video:
http://www.mainstreetphotovideo.com

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Battle of 1510/ES

The battle lines are drawn - 1510 ES is where its at.
SPX has been riding 5day/ema, with only 2 closes under it since the beginning of the year. The necessary correction...and bla-bla-bla.

Half Point from this post (link) seems to be working out, but missing one important ingredient - no powerful up-move. May be its still ahead. European data came overnight, and its shit - so ES and Euro selling off. Traditional pattern this year - down in the morning, up into close.


They want to raise minimum wage to $9/hour. Finally. I've been pounding the table for past 2 years that only delusional nouveaurish may believe that anybody can survive on 7.25. Living wage? You've got to be fucking shitting me...

I am 100% invested. All long equities, short bonds and Silver. Can't sleep, constant nightmares, wake up drenched in sweat every night. Its not easy. Is it ever?
Here is highest short interest ETF's, aka "People who owe me money":
BOT:
2/12 - TSCO 103.57 ag-complex
2/12 - RSX 30.33 half pos for emer markets group
2/12 - EWS 13.88 half pos for emer markets group
2/13 - FB 27.76 Half pos
2/14 - FB 28.60 Half pos. Now I have a full position. Trailing close stop. If this turn doesn't hold - FB goes to 25, where I will look to buy it again.

SLD:
2/11 - FIUIX  19.48 half sold
2/12 - FIUIX 19.48 Utilities all out. Total profit 15.5%.
2/14 - IBM 199.50 (S12T)  $-64.50       Its the weakest of System 12 stocks. Although exit criteria is not met, I am flat out of money and wanted to add to FB, so decided to dump Big Blue at small loss.
2/15 - ZSL 50.60 Half pos out. Silver at support. I have to consider overnight and long weekend risk.
2/15 - FSCHX 125.19 Sold 1pos size, still have 1full pos on. $CEX looks like possible double top. Don't want to hold too much, plus I need money.
2/15 - XLE  78.09  almost B/E (-0.7%)  Don't like intraday action. May be it's OPEX, but there is a problem with oil complex, i just don't know what this problem is.
2/15 - CVX (S12T) 114.19   $-47.75   Same reasons as IBM and XLE
2/15 - CG 35.59 Half of half (1/4size) out. High volume, failure of late-stage intraday breakout. This thing gone parabolic. wow

Note 2/18 - I sold enough, to the point that I can sleep again. And I have almost 3 pos of cash to allocate to TAN, SCTY and possibly add to JJG.
Have some other ideas too - short oil and gas, add to pot-trade on reaction, start graphite. In a process I may liquidate remaining S12T positions - I was right, I was getting ahead of myself, but the problem is not expectancy of System 12. The problem is under-capitalization.

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,$CEX,CG,TSLA,JJG,TBT,SLX,IBB,SCTY,CCJ,MON,fb|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EZA,HAO,EWS,RSX,GEO,TAN,XLE,ZSL,TSCO|B|P5,3,3
Marijuana
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3
MJNA, HEMP, PHOT entered. AVTC not sure, may buy it again. Total allocation Half pos. Will buy more on dip.
Orders set for half-out at double of entry price.

Note on MJNA:
  It will either breakout in 2-5 days (unlikely) or will go down to 0.3-0.25 in order to stop-out late buyers, who came in on Feb 1st.
People will see 40-50% loss, panic and sell their shares to me.
I'm just a little yellow fruit, and this is how I roll :-)

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Don't Fuck with Elon Musk

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla Motors Inc., talks about a review of the company's Model S electric sedan by the New York Times. The Times on Feb. 8 published a story by John M. Broder on its website detailing how the Model S he drove failed to meet the electric sedan's 300-mile (483-kilometer) range "under ideal conditions" while driving in temperatures as low as 10 degrees Fahrenheit (minus-12 Celsius). Musk speaks with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg West." (Source: Bloomberg)

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Roaring Bull Market

I think I'm the only one why sees this Roaring Bull Market, everybody else are either shorting (and loosing their shirts) or cautiously out and waiting.
There is nothing wrong with waiting, except it will be over soon and trading will become increasingly difficult. So as long as VIX low and my Nazdaq A/D indicator not pushing overbought - I will stay aggressively long. I even started to take "quick trades", which I haven't done in a long time. First one (TM-Toyota) is already out with profit.
There are several themes I am keenly interested in.
          First of all is agriculture, specifically grain complex. JJG volume profile is improving, and although its still not in uptrend, serious buying volume in mid-January keeps me hopeful. There is a lot to be done in agri-business stocks. I may be early with all this, but winter is the time to get positioned - so if I stop out there will be another entry point soon enough.
          Energy stocks are acting strange. System 12 is heavy in energy, because these are some of the biggest companies in the world. Surprisingly, as XOM, PTR and RDS collapsed,  XLE broke-out to new highs and I bought it for a trade. XOM and PTR where exited from S12T and BTFT at almost 5% loss each. Thats a lot, I don't want to see 5% losses in a middle of bull market, but rules are rules. When/if  they recover - I am sure System 12 will pick them back up.
          Entire industrial complex is very strong, including materials XLB, metal and miners (not gold/silver), even shippers SEA. I believe this is real reason for our bull market, not this mythical QE-n everybody talking about. You want to see QE - look at yen. Dollar is rather strong, and all this implied bond buying doesn't do shit for our long bond.
         All news is about AAPL, homebuilders and Europe. I have no opinion or positions on EU and  AAPL will be picked up by System 12 in due time. As for "homies", IYR started to move out on Friday and XHB still correcting, but I'm little weary about "Housing Recovery" - too much talk on Tee-Vee makes me uncomfortable.
           Emerging markets where leading this market up and I expect it to continue. EEM was my trading pick, but its correcting with no end in sight. I'm watching it and hoping that good entry will present itself rather sooner than later. In the mean time I decided to pick 4 foreign ETF's, enter half position each and see what happens. Not touching Japan - this rally is not economy based, its QE based and will crash, just like US crashed as soon as QE-1 was over.
           As this bull market entering its late stage, I expect all kinds of garbage to advance violently in coming weeks. Usual suspects are solar, uranium and rare earths. I'm trying to enter TAN with half position lot and add on the way up, but it may not work as TAN is a lousy etf. Just like emerging markets, I may need to pick some companies that are in better condition. Uranium sector is all fucked-up, most miners are penny stocks, but with bomb-recycling program coming to an end this year - there may be opportunities. RE sector is still dead, without single stock in uptrend. I heard that fundamentally only tungsten and antimony are of value, need to investigate, but not expecting much.
          On Friday last week I was 100% invested. System 12 pulled significant part of my capital and I run out of money. If there is something to sell, its utilities mutual fund - I think there is better use of money out there.
          I have been doing a fine job controlling risk and rotating out of overheated sectors, so I will continue with this rhythm of trading until stops are hit that is. Presently only one position can really bite me in the ass - short Silver via ZSL, everything else is single or half positions, liquid and in uptrend. Only 2x position is Chemical mutual fund, but I'm not touching it yet.
Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,CG,TSLA,JJG,TBT,SLX,IBB,scty,ccj,mon|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eza,hao,geo,moo,tan,xle,zsl|B|P5,3,3
S12T
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOOG,BRK/B,GE,IBM,CVX,BHP|B|P5,3,3
BTFT
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HBC,BHP,JNJ,FMX,NVS,ORCL,PFE,TM,GOOG,BRK/B|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ibm,cvx,ge|B|P5,3,3

Thursday, February 7, 2013

Half Point

Don't laugh, but this came to me in a dream.
Dreams and intuition are powerful subconscious tools, so I decided to investigate.

General idea is this:
During a low volatility bull market, there is a half point in price and time. It could be a flag, a measuring gap or something else. At the time it looks like a small top, with divergence in indicators, failed break-out or support and strange volume pattern. Understand - not all of these conditions must be met, as long as it looks topish and scary - it's a valid half point. This can last from few days to few weeks. I think we just had that Half Point. Now and most importantly - half point is confirmed by a powerful move, with recent top  taken out quickly and on volume.
This did not happened yet.

Note:
I don't see how all this can be measured precisely, and I don't think its necessary. Just general understanding is good enough, as long as SPX takes out 1515 and continue up with low volatility.
No harm to calculate targets: 1600+ on SPX sometimes in March 2013.
But wait - there is a Bergamot T from this post (link) , which also points into March.
As Darth Gerb said: "Speculators should be finding hard data to speculate."
I checked, as soon as I woke up - it was hard


Monday, February 4, 2013

Detailed Position Review.

I feel a bit giddy and careless, so I must stop and look around. I have less than 10% cash.

SLD:
2/4 - EEM on stop 44.02 (B/E) (Total for EEM in 2013 is B/E)
         Note on EEM: emer mrkts bond where collapsing all January. See PCY, EMB. This bull flag is taking too long on daily, but weekly still looks ok. I think I need to go to individual countries or regions.
2/4 - FB on stop 28.45 (B/E on last half-pos lot) (Total for FB +3.5%)
2/4 - KOL on stop 24.83 (-3%)
2/4 - XHB on stop 28.45 (+8%)
2/4 - now cash is over 20% and I'm not giddy anymore
2/7 - PTR 137 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-85
2/7 - XOM 87.63 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-81 Decided not to wait. PBar to 86.04 - very unusual for this stock.
2/8 - TM 104.28 quick trade exit (+6.5%)

BOT:
2/5 - MON 102.31  Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134
2/5 - GE 22.56 (S12T ;  BTFT)
2/6 - TAN 18.40 Half pos. I sold it on 1/25 here at same price. (Note 2/10 - Damn it, its breaking down again)
2/6 - MOO 55.72 In low volume correction
2/7 - GEO 33.04 for quick trade
2/8 - ZSL 45.75 for quick trade
2/8 - XLE 78.24 on br-out to new high for quick trade
2/8 - HAO 24.69 Half pos
2/8 - EZA 67.75 Little more than half pos

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,JJG,TBT,KOL,SLX,IBB|B|P5,3,3
$CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,scty,tm,ccj,mon|B|P5,3,3
Chemicals and Utilities are 2x positions,
CG, FB, SCTY are half size

CCJ  -   Support 20.50 - 21. ER 2/11amc. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21.  Last PFT 37; now in correction (PFT 26?). All these PFT met.
EEM  - Stop 44.02 set. All out. Now in corr PFT 43. Last PFT 56;  61
FB      - Holding, Stop 28.45 set. All out. Waiting for it to cool-down after earn. In corr to PFT 25.
XLU   -Holding. PFT 38.50;  42;  45.50
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met.  More PFT 508-512.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - still waiting for 20dma. PFT 88 met. More targets 91.50;  95;  104
JJG   - Stop on close under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75. Last PFT 60.30
KOL - May sell today, watching. Sold. Looking to re-enter
SCTY- Higher low may fail. Support 14 - 14.50
SLX  - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72
TBT  - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 66 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
TM   - stop on close under 94.  ER 2/8bmo or was it today? PFT 107; 123; 138
TSLA - Holding. ER 2/11.  SR still 21!  37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50;  52; 61
XHB   - Stop 28.45 set. All out. Last PFT 39

MD - all must be entered by Feb 8, unless exit criteria met. This started S12T.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,PTR,GOOG,BRK/B,GE,IBM,RDS/B,CVX,bhp|B|P5,3,3
BHP is in BTFT and #14, but I took it just the same.
Still need  GE, RDS/B  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)
Update 2/5 - PTR to exit by 2/11; XOM in danger

 BTFT - all entered into OX paper trade on open 1/28/2013. LP as of 1/28.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HBC,BHP,PTR,JNJ,FMX,NVS,ORCL,PFE,TM,GOOG,BRK/B,XOM|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ibm,cvx,ge|B|P5,3,3
GE, RDS/B are not in BTFT and will have to be added within 2PP (by Feb 8)
  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Trading Ideas

Stock market is extended and overbought. There is absolutely no doubt of that. I am not calling a top here and now, nor I have any kind of idea when it will be. One sign of upcoming top is increase in volatility, wider range days, gaps and increased overnight activity. I see none of that.
But, I don't want to start any more aggressive stock positions, at-least for few days. I would rather take some profits.
I have only one concern: is this similar to chart-picture couple weeks before  flush-crush?

So I continue to work on ETF's lists I started in this post (link).
There are surprising results already.
            Incredible break-thru last weekend was my brand new System 12. It is currently right in a middle of 2-week Positioning Period (PP), so no further analysis is needed. It doesn't look like anything qualifies for Emergency Exit (EE). There are still some trades to be entered into Back Test with Forward Test (BTFT) and System 12 Transition (S12T), so it will continue as planned.

       1.  Here is something I may use as early as Monday:
Currency / FX etf's list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?UUP,UUPT,UDN,FXE,EUO,DRR,FXY,YCS,DBV,CEW,FXB,CYB|B|P5,3,3
Of interest to me is UUPT  - 3x Bull Dollar ETF, mainly because its one of only few that actually move more than couple of percent. But more importantly, because everybody written off dollar as been dead, destined for lower levels. I'm not so sure. Dollar really goes up during times of economic expansion.
(Never mind. UUPT is completely illiquid, plus Mole told me to stay away from currency etf,s. Next...)

2. I am working on new restaurant list. Actually new twist on old list

3. A return of "Uranium trade"? Its been too long. Here is Uranium-1 list
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NLR,URA,DNN,CCJ,STHJF,USU,URZ,UEC,urg,urre|B|P5,3,3
I already have CCJ, need to add URA. Everything else is penny stocks! - un-fucking-real
New Uranium spot price link http://www.mininginvestor.net/uranium-spot-price-chart/?qm_symbol=/UX:NMX&qm_page=45655

4. Grains (via JJG) have finally bottomed, or at-least stopped falling.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?dba,jjg,$soyb,$corn,$wheat|B|P5,3,3
Meanwhile MOO (Agribusiness etf) pushing 3yr highs. MOO is a little tricky to trade and doesn't move fast, maybe better to go with POT, MON, MOS ets
Got MON - clear leader. POT lags. Need more options - equipment etc..
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?moo,MON,POT,MOS,SQM,LNN,BG,VMI,AGU,RNF,AVD,IPI|B|P5,3,3

5. 2/5/13 7am
Market may be setting up for System 10. It's been too long! Without futures I will have to go with SSO or UPRO or something else. Careful, without margin I have to be really careful.
Patience. It didn't kick in today. Wait

6. Watch list
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,GEO,IGE,TAN,SCTY,DRYS,UGA,ORB,GSVC,DDD,moo,rgr|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SEA,NIB,XLK,XLF,xle,oih,ige,YELP,soda,hyg,pcy,eem|B|P5,3,3

7. Since I'm having such trouble dealing with EEM, here is China++
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$ssec,aaxj,FXI,GXC,MCHI,CHIQ,HAO,PGJ,eza,epol,ephe,vnm|B|P5,3,3
Been watching VNM - just keep getting away from me. EPHE(Philippines) is too extended.
Need to see how CHIQ and HAO trades.

Saturday, February 2, 2013

iBergamot Tea

 http://the-tea-site.com/earl_grey_tea.php
 "There are many health benefits from the oil of bergamot. It is known
for treating fevers, intestinal worms and controlling anxiety. It is
also notable that bergamot is a disinfectant and an anti-depressant."
       iBergamot takes the goodness of a small yellow fruit into digital fields of 21st Century.
Thru rigorous genetic engineering and regiment of contrast showers, i-Bergamot treats gambling fever, computer worms, over-trading anxiety and depression caused by disregarding stop-losses.
      More tea Vicar

      Are these markets different than before? Is it harder to make money on Wall Street, for a small individual investor that is? Do I really have a chance to succeed and make a living from markets?

Lets see:







     It seems that markets go through these rotten 20-year periods, followed by multi-year bull markets, as far back as I can see. All this was happening without  machines/bots that are being blamed for volatility and manipulation of 2000's.

       So market gets out of early 1900's, runs hot, crashes in 1929, recovers during WWII, goes sideways for few years and only then great bull market of 1950's begins. "Nifty Fifty was easy", Young Buck told me. Really? There wasn't a person alive, who seen or traded bull market like this.

      50 years of  history, 50 years of sheer fuckery (including crash and depression), 50 years of charts and trading - they all mean nothing in 1950-1960 period. Cus it was different,  nothing in preceding years prepare or indicated an onset of Nifty Fifty, and I doubt that "people" realized that in time to make money. Then, it wasn't easy sailing either - 10%+ corrections of 1949, 1950, 1953 and picture perfect top of 1956-1958 surely wiped out numerous "active traders on margin".

       Following all that You become smart, get with the program - only to get fucked again in 60-70's. Nicolas Darvas has a pretty good account of this period in his books. Sure, we can learn from history, but not as much as you think.

Chart of 1940-1960 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19401960.html

         Young Buck is still too young to realize that there is never anything easy in markets, because markets don't change - they just go through periods that cannot be forecasted.

UPDATE June 2013:
           Apparently "Nifty-Fifty" is mostly referred to period in early 1970's, when a bunch of companies where sporting a P/E ratio of  about 50, and they were "new" market leaders destined for ever-expanding price levels.
I love history - everything is so plainly understood ... lol. 
Methinks, lesson is the same.