Daily Global Economic Calendar

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Saturday, July 13, 2013

System 12 Re-Start

I received additional money for main (LB) account. Last time I was running System 12 as Back-Test-Forward-Test (BTFT), meaning I was transitioning paper trades of running Back Test into real money positions in main account. I did it in two ways: Main Account positions where taken opportunistically at my discretion, while OX paper trades where open all at once on 1/28/2013. Less than a month later Main Account run out of money.
I wrote here: http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/02/battle-of-1510es.html
I may liquidate remaining S12T positions - I was right, I was getting ahead of myself, but the problem is not expectancy of System 12. The problem is under-capitalization.
 Main Account about break-even on these System12 Transition (S12T) even without completion of all.
OX paper trade account was abandoned on 3/21/2013, following that no stop losses where taken. Today it has 11 positions with 3 losers - FMX, IBM and ORCL, all would be stopped out long ago per rules of System12. Still total gain is a bit over 1 unit size, and that is Great!

First step is to make BTFT current, make adjustments in OX paper account. I am very concerned about starting S12T now, as I view this market as very dangerous and expecting sudden drop, even bear market.

This is how it looks now. Big jump is because of gap in data from 3/22 to 7/11/2013.
Chart resumes on 7/12/2013.

BTFT positions:
FMX,  ORCL to be liquidated per rules. IBM has to be too, but I will put stop at 190.
Also FMX is #175 now! ORCL is #30.
 NVS to be liquidated on trailing stop (#22)

This is MD:  I have BRK, CVX, GE, GOOG, JNJ
AAPL is disqualified, can be replaced by IBM (I have in BTFT)
RDS just crossing 50dma, can be temporarily replaced by PFE/TM (I have in BTFT)

 This is SD: I have IBM, PFE, TM, NVS
IBM, PTR, CHL, BHP are disqualified.
MD+ Screen 7/15/2013

I am re-starting System 12 gradually.
BTFT has 1 available slot on Monday, and will have 2 more on Tuesday after FMX and ORCL are gone. I have 1 week Positioning Period (PP) to replace these and will take same trades in Main Account.
Here are available candidates: XOM,MSFT,WMT,PG,WFC in this order.
The rest of them (BRK, CVX, GE, GOOG, JNJ) are MD stocks that I already have in BTFT, and need to buy for Main Account S12T on some kind of reaction.
WFC and MSFT are little extended, but really they all look good. Watch earnings coming up.
7/15 - WFC 43.29
7/18 - XOM 94.13  Accidentally, I bought 19sh instead of 16.

Lose Yourself to mechanical system.

Thursday, July 11, 2013


Geomagnetic Storm continues for forth day non-stop. Its felt all around.
I received new funds for main account (LB). Now I should have enough money to run System 12 with single unit size, which is half of my standard position size.
I also got a new account (Z) to manage. Its very small, but has dual purpose. About 20% to be invested in Marijuana stocks, with the rest (only 3 full positions size) into dividend and interest producing instruments.

This is one helluva rally since June 24 bottom 1560SPX, up 100 points and getting overbought.
Is this a new structural bull market that will last for 20 years? That's what everybody is talking about.
I still have doubts.

7/5 - DDD 46.61 Half pos. Wanted to get it for a long time, but always miss a good entry point. Want more.
7/8 - FB 24.67 Half pos. Its like 5th time I buy it in 25 area.
7/10 - TBT 76.50 1Full pos. Adding to half pos, now I have 1.5 - too much - and it doesn't look good at close.
7/10 - DDD 47.89 Half pos. Adding on a way up.
7/10 - AMPL 18.02 Also in new Z account.
7/12 - TZA 26.19 Half pos of 3x short if IWM. May add more. Looking for 2-3 days down to under 100IWM.
7/19 - NM 5.73 Adding half pos on a way up. Now i have full pos on.

7/17 - TZA 25.62 Stop out for small loss - getting run over by bulls. Next time using TWM (2x short Russel2000) for less leverage and uniformity of positions.
7/18 - SRS 19.42 Sold way past any reasonable stop for 8.5% loss.
7/18 - SDS 36.89  Half stop-out.

7/15 - dividends received CCJ, PGH
7/19 - dividends received RGLD


Positions with cost basis size. (including commissions)
 JJG   1.03    This is my 3rd time going for grains from this post(link) . Since 1/8/2013 I only lost money on it, current position down 5%. I am being stubborn. Watching 48  for support.-- sliced thru it on 7/24, now watching for reaction. We are in or around 3-year lows on grains and all agriculture (via DBA).
BAL  0.55    I first bought Cotton at 56-57 in March, and lost 10% with exit 51.66 on 5/23 here(link). Ultimately support 50 held and 55 was retaken, and weekly chart still looks good. Then I bought Half pos size for 54.58 on 7/3 here(link) to see if I can trade it quicker, but maybe I not going to have to. Being right and loosing money... Hmm.... PFTargets on both sides, but longer term still 89

 NM  0.94  ER 8/19.  P/E 4!  P/B 0.49! My main concern was very high volume 10%+ moves since May 20. Makes it impossible to have a close stop, but it held nicely sideways, although with some Volume Profile (VP) deterioration.  PFT (5.40 met); 6.55; 7 and 7.50
TK 0.94   ER 8/5. Bot on 6/17 for 40.11. That was late stage breakout that failed on 2nd day, since then recovered. Possibly trending LVM, with some of the lowest Volatility in Main Account 1.62%W; 1.88%M. Need to go to 42 to confirm. Cluster of upside PFTargets 43; 45.75; 49, followed by 58.50.
Shippers are a strong group that nobody is talking about, even with BDI on a rise. Here is more: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TGP,TOO,TDW,GMLP,CKH,CMRE,STNG,DSX,drys|C|C20

 FNV 1.05  ER 8/7amc
GDX 1.49
RGLD 0.57  ER 8/8bmo
SIL   0.53
SLV  0.97
TRX 0.51  8.7% of float short. SR 19!

AMLP 0.96
CCJ 1.06  ER 8/1bmo. No shorts. On a weekly chart its a box 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom. Good VP. Generally anything north of 16 is ok with me, but for now I see support 21-20.50; my stop 19.75. If hit will look to pick a bottom of that box.
DDD 1.03  ER 7/30bmo.  27% of float short! SR 5.7
FB 0.50 ER 7/24amc.  No shorts.
EWJ 1.02
SCTY 0.51  ER 8/5.  17% of float short, but SR only 1.8. Price stands at 70% above 200dma and up 350% from 52W low - BEWARE!
TSCO  1.15 ER 7/24amc. I think its a confirmed trending LVM, with 2.09%Weekly and 2.22%Monthly volatility.
VNM  0.52.   If 18 is lost, I have to be out.

SDS    0.92
SRS  1.06  First I shorted Real Estate on 6/19 here(link) and stopped out with small loss. Then I took failed breakout on 7/3 here(link). Then it gaped past my Close stop above 67IYR on 7/11 and I exited only to buy it back next day at exactly same price. Effectively, SRS has 21.21 cost basis and a complete clasterfuck.
TBT  1.57
TZA 0.53

Incidentally, JJG, all gold and short positions would be disqualified under rules of System12 (under 200dma); also VNM, while barely qualified, still would not be available (under 50dma).

Tuesday, July 9, 2013


Europe - the Old World.  All the talk on Tee-Vee and on Internets has been about some kind of crisis in Europe for years and years. Nobody seems to mention that actually Europe as a whole IS the biggest economy in the World. Add England or not makes no difference.

The amount and quality of pure science and innovation from EU, GB and also Russia is just staggering. From life changing projects like Large Hadron Collider to life-saving endeavors like SynBio and HSCI , Europe is moving ahead regardless of what politicians and bankers do.
This Biotechnology Boom we are enjoying here is States over past couple of years is ALL based on science that came out of Germany and Russia since 2011. Innovation is the process of converting inventions into invoices, but new scientific discovery is necessary first. Old World governments are heavily invested  in science, and kept commitments even thru financial crisis.

I was thinking long and hard about politics and economics of  European region. There is alot going on - good and bad, but while it all makes for a great cocktail-hour conversation, I don't find this way of thinking productive, pertaining to investing in Europe.

Biggest European ETF's :
VGK has lowest expense ratio 0.12%, followed by  FEZ 0.29%, others are 0.5 to 0.7 (GREK)
Emerging Europe, Russia and some others

Looking at these charts today, I don't see anything good to buy.
Actually, it seems that Europe is fucked (again).

Saturday, July 6, 2013


Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) own and operate natural gas and crude oil pipelines and storage tanks, and periodically distribute their cash flow to investors, resulting in 5% and over yields.

Here is a nice article from 2012 :
Of interest:
AMJ and AMLP are the biggest
MLPL is 2x-leveraged of AMPL (also similar to MLPI)
YMPL   in addition to holding royalty trusts and energy  firms, YMLP also makes allocations to companies involved in marine transportation and the production and marketing of other natural resources including timber and fertilizers.
 MLPG is mostly nat gas
EMLP is actively managed

AMLP pf targets 19.55 and 20.50
AMJ pf target is 59.40, but now it seems to target 43.  Tried to buy on 7/9, but got this message: " This security is restricted from online opening trades or restricted to closing trades only." What...?
MLPL targets 78ish
MLPN targets 36ish
Overall its 20% up from here for this group. I will be looking to get 2 out of 4 above sometimes next week.

Finviz doesn't have much info, and none for AMEX listed etf's (YMLP, MLPA, EMLP) . Here sorted by liquidity. Note that leveraged MLPL is the best performer with highest yield.

Thursday, July 4, 2013


Africa - the next Frontier.
Presently everything there is in bear market. Egypt (EGPT) rallied 20% in 5 days on military coup.

GULF and  MES concentrated in Kuwait, UAE and Qatar with different allocation
GAF is Africa+Middle East
EEME is SA+Russia
The only way to get into Mali is AFK.
All these have very high exp ratio.
Welcome addition is Nigeria NGE. If i could invest in their bonds at 15% - that would be nice.

 AFK country breakdown:
Nigeria 24.84%
South Africa 24.68%
United Kingdom 17.40%
Egypt 14.33%
Morocco 9.87%
Canada 4.00%
Norway 2.56%
Kenya 1.30%
Australia 1.12%


Following from Wikipedia:

Sub-Saharan Africa is, geographically, the area of the continent of Africa that lies south of the Sahara. Politically, it consists of all African countries that are fully or partially located south of the Sahara (excluding Sudan).[2] It contrasts with North Africa, which is considered a part of the Arab world. Somalia, Djibouti, Comoros and Mauritania are geographically part of Sub-Saharan Africa, but also part of the Arab world.[3][4]
The Sahel is the transitional zone between the Sahara and the tropical savanna (the Sudan region) and forest-savanna mosaic to the south.

........................AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT........................
 UN Human Development Index (HDI) for 2004, derived from 2006 UN HDI report. An HDI below 0.5 is considered to represent low development and an HDI 0.8 or more is considered to represent high development.

For an exact list of countries by their HDI, see the List of countries by Human Development Index
   0.950 and over

   under 0.300
100bil in investments. Are Chinese taking over Africa without a single shot fired, or is it the best example of hard-core capitalism. IMHO there is nothing wrong with either scenario.
UPDATE 10/23/2013
AFRICAN OIL  - Nigeria here again
http://www.zerohedge.com  /news/2013-10-23/guest-post-scramble-africas-oil

UPDATE 1/2/2014
More investment ideas, Ghana, African mutual funds and more: