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Sunday, February 3, 2013

Trading Ideas

Stock market is extended and overbought. There is absolutely no doubt of that. I am not calling a top here and now, nor I have any kind of idea when it will be. One sign of upcoming top is increase in volatility, wider range days, gaps and increased overnight activity. I see none of that.
But, I don't want to start any more aggressive stock positions, at-least for few days. I would rather take some profits.
I have only one concern: is this similar to chart-picture couple weeks before  flush-crush?

So I continue to work on ETF's lists I started in this post (link).
There are surprising results already.
            Incredible break-thru last weekend was my brand new System 12. It is currently right in a middle of 2-week Positioning Period (PP), so no further analysis is needed. It doesn't look like anything qualifies for Emergency Exit (EE). There are still some trades to be entered into Back Test with Forward Test (BTFT) and System 12 Transition (S12T), so it will continue as planned.

       1.  Here is something I may use as early as Monday:
Currency / FX etf's list:
Of interest to me is UUPT  - 3x Bull Dollar ETF, mainly because its one of only few that actually move more than couple of percent. But more importantly, because everybody written off dollar as been dead, destined for lower levels. I'm not so sure. Dollar really goes up during times of economic expansion.
(Never mind. UUPT is completely illiquid, plus Mole told me to stay away from currency etf,s. Next...)

2. I am working on new restaurant list. Actually new twist on old list

3. A return of "Uranium trade"? Its been too long. Here is Uranium-1 list
I already have CCJ, need to add URA. Everything else is penny stocks! - un-fucking-real
New Uranium spot price link http://www.mininginvestor.net/uranium-spot-price-chart/?qm_symbol=/UX:NMX&qm_page=45655

4. Grains (via JJG) have finally bottomed, or at-least stopped falling.
Meanwhile MOO (Agribusiness etf) pushing 3yr highs. MOO is a little tricky to trade and doesn't move fast, maybe better to go with POT, MON, MOS ets
Got MON - clear leader. POT lags. Need more options - equipment etc..

5. 2/5/13 7am
Market may be setting up for System 10. It's been too long! Without futures I will have to go with SSO or UPRO or something else. Careful, without margin I have to be really careful.
Patience. It didn't kick in today. Wait

6. Watch list

7. Since I'm having such trouble dealing with EEM, here is China++
Been watching VNM - just keep getting away from me. EPHE(Philippines) is too extended.
Need to see how CHIQ and HAO trades.

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