Daily Global Economic Calendar

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Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Consumer and Services DART

This is a third occurrence of DART method producing a more or less homogeneous results.
The setting for this scan (FinViz link) follow most of DART v2 guidelines, except:
a. A 2% threshold for dividends is removed. Any divi is good enough.
b. Volume requirements are reduced to 300K. We've been trading on lower volumes for-awhile.
Out of 69 stocks - more than third are financials.
Some technology is still here, but it's a played out theme... back in 2016 (post link).

Over half of Best List can be characterized by Consumer driven theme, heavily skewed to Service sector.
From clothes, stores and recreation to business needs - Consumer & Services DART (C&S) got it all, plus more.
I took a liberty to add some building materials to compliment industrial supplies; also medical lab seemed like a good fit for Medicaid processor (MMS) and employment agency (RHI).
C&S has everything from exterminator (ROL) to elegant blue box (TIF)... like it's a reflection of our 'Consumer Service' economy... or something...
There are few stocks of this kind just beyond a threshold of this list, and if my suspicion is correct, there will be more to come. Initial selection isn't set in stone either - some of today's candidates will drop off the list.

C&S will run as a typical DART method experiment.
10 equal size positions, about 3300 each, with generous cash reserve - for 35K portfolio.
Standard DART rules apply.
I would run it with real money, but I don't have enough.
Besides, I trade DART v2, which will pick up some of these one way or another. (tips hat)

Browser window needs to be adjusted so these groups are seen 3 across. This way almost every row is united by common theme, with best candidate selected for portfolio.

 FINviz Link for above stocks.

These stocks don't pay much dividends - I don't expect this portfolio to yield more that 1.3% (if that).
More than half grow their earnings at double-digit rate, but sales are harder to juice up (thou I hope it will improve).
A good third has no debt at-all.
IMNSHO, every one of these has a potential to go up by 50% or more in a year or less.
How they get there is another story.

This is a test! 
No real money will be traded, but I will keep a virtual trading account with (near) real records. 

This is a link for Market-Watch simulator game, for comparison and tracking purposes.
Please note that while Market-Watch seems to trade correctly, it's results are not entirely realistic.
Also, it does not account for dividends at-all.

 .to follow articles in this series - select 'DART' label on a right sidebar.
Read these key posts:
Original DART Article
Loaded Gun - results and observations
Dart v2. System Start
Dart v2. Portfolio Check

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

VIDEO: Winter T Review and S&P500 Trend

In this video I review projections of Advance-Decline Time Symmetry with center post on December 1, 2016. This "Winter T' was originally identified in December (post link) and later updated in January (post link). Although i had some concerns about validity of this T, it worked out very well and guided stock market higher without any meaningful pullback.

There still remains a matter of unresolved "Nested T' with centerpost on January 19, 2017, identified only a few days after center post was fixed. Here, the initial projection is already satisfied, but "Nested T' displayed some strange behavior in a beginning of February, which leads me to believe that remaining projections for March 17 and especially April 4 will most likely target a low (give or take 3-4 days).

My Advance-Decline Indicator (MADI) is under 'Zero" line, indicating unfavorable period for stocks.
S&P500 Trend analysis, based on custom Keltner channels, shows market as overextended and on a cusp of imminent correction. Based on prior occurrences, this dip may be about 7% (or as far down as 2200SPX). Caution is required, accordingly I carry about 40% cash balance in main account, but my approach will remain flexible and subject to change based on constantly evolving variety of possible outcomes.