Select Themes Review and Update

There are some Themes that kinda active, but phasing in and out mostly due to unending bear market or lack of correlation. I think Themes need to be reviewed in general at-least once a year to make sure that fundamentals didn't change much, see if big stocks lead or small, see if weightings of stocks in corresponding ETF's where rebalanced, but mainly to update watch lists. If my assumptions about industry or situation are correct, then price action will confirm. Otherwise I would have to deal will long grind and pain of System8... I would rather not... a have much better methods in System9 and System12.

Do nothing which is of no use.       -Miyamoto Musashi, 1645-

Uranium for Sale

And getting cheaper everyday. Every rally was sold to new lows since Fukushima accident in 2011, even thou there are many more nuclear power stations being build all around the World. They can't run base load of a solar panel. Really.

Top ETF is URA from Global X, with 0.7% fee, only 200mil in assets, and down 70% from inception in 2010.
http://www.globalxfunds.com/URA
Top 3 holdings: CCJ, DNN, URPTF (proxy for price of U92) - together almost 50% of fund. It also include several companies not traded in US - Australian Syrah, French Areva, etc.
USU filed for bankruptcy in March. Its happening...!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NLR,URA,CCJ,DNN,URZ,UEC,URG,URRE,UUUU,URPTF,PALAF,FCUUF|D|C20|0

CCJ is the only real company, DNN comes a distant second. UEC (with huge short in it) and UUUU are Mickey's 'sponsors'. The other little ones attracted some inst. buying...lol... What a fucking mess... But correlated, active and with enough volume.
More here: http://investorintel.com/nuclear-energy-stock/
Different view of industry: https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/nuclear-renaissance#/overview

NLR is a tiny (only 75mil) ETF from MarketVectors invested by 70% into utilities known to use nuclear power. Like DUK, NEE, SO, D, PPL etc. I already have them in utility mut fund in System9.
http://www.vaneck.com/market-vectors/equity-etfs/nlr/snapshot/

-------------------------------------------------------

Shippers on Deck

I made a Discovery at Sea (post-link) a little over a year ago. Shipping companies made me alot of money, even when I traded them short term. I wish I decided to focus more on dividends and hold them longer, as market happened to accommodate. Industry dynamics didn't change much over this year, top 20 are almost the same and look much better than smaller stocks.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TK,GLNG,TGP,TOO,SSW,GMLP,GLOG,SFL,CMRE|C|C20|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NVGS,DRYS,NMM,CPLP,MATX,NM,DSX,NAT,SB,DLNG,dac,vlccf|C|C20|0

SEA is a small (120mil) illiquid ETF with 0.7% exp ratio. Largest holding, at maximum allowed allocation of 20%, is Maersk. There is no other way to invest in it from US I'm aware of.
http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/sea
Considering how well correlated top of list is, I will exit SEA from BCM account (on either a close stop or next rip) , wait an obligatory month (damn wash), and begin taking shippers. System9 will keep SEA until multiple sell signals accumulate.
These are not my smoothest moves... he-he

------------------------------------------------------

Pot(ty) Training

Marijuana Theme quickly turned into pump-n-dump. So many new penny stocks where listed here and in Canada, and promptly proceeded down by 50-90%.
I am well trained to work thru this shit.  Gold stocks now, Rare Earths before, Home Builders awhile ago - I've seen this movie more than once. Selling most of pot stocks on last rip was a wise decision, and not a hard one to make at 500-1000% profit. Really, hundreds into thousands... nicccce
Now picture is muddy, but I still think we will know more after elections. Its not over.
Looking to reload with tiny size positions...lol
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,GRNH,GWPH,CANN,canv|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FSPM,MCIG,NVLX,VAPE,ATTBF,EXMT,GWPRF,HSCC,LATF,NTRR|B|P5,3,3|0

More here:
http://marijuanastocks.com/content/list-marijuana-stocks
http://money.msn.com/investing/14-cannabis-stocks-to-watch-in-2014-1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Raring for Rare Earths

I tried to buy Rare Earth stocks (my old fetish) about a year ago, but it didn't take. Situation is largely the same: these companies are either a fraud, or a delusion. Nobody talks about them, dedicated forum is all but empty. The only two companies doing something is still MCP and LYSDY, both down about 70% from year ago.

In a life of mining company, this period between exploration and production is called "Valley if Death"... indeed it is. Many blown up or sold, most of remaining will not survive in their present form. I am controlling my eagerness to buy some, but several good looking set-ups are present for at-least a meaningful bounce. Also watching related items in titanium, palladium, lithium and antimony.
Start here:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?REMX,RTI,TC,REE,TAS,GMO,LYSDY,MCP,PAL,UAMY,uuraf,LIT|B|P5,3,3|0

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mother Russia 

Come on Vladimir Vladimirovich, the World is watching...
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$RTSI,RSX,CTCM,MBT,MTL,QIWI,VIP,YNDX,OGZPY,SBRCY,NILSY,LUKOY|B|P5,3,3|0

========================================================

--------------------Watch List----------------------
I trade only my own watch list... exceptions are futile

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MHFI,GEO,CXW,DVA,LO,WDC,IMAX,CHKP,XON,GS,CG,tsla|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DBA,JJG,MOO,MON,ADM,POT,MOS,HRL,TSCO,LNN,CRESY,SQM|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XHB,LEN,DHI,PHM,TOL,WY,PCL,RYN,PCH,EXP,TXI,mlm|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?URA,CCJ,DNN,URZ,UEC,URG,UUUU,URPTF,CVV,GTI,ENTG,fcsmf|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BDI,SEA,KEX,TK,GLNG,SSW,SFL,CMRE,DRYS,NM,MATX,VLCCF|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EEM,FXI,PGJ,HAO,RSX,AFK,FM,VNM,TUR,IFN,TTF,idx|B|P5,3,3|0
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,RSP,PRF,XOM,GE,WFC,MSFT,CVX,JPM,googl,brk/b|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?tan,scty,fslr,enph,spwr,slx,kol,x,aks,mtl,mt,crs|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AMLP,XLU,FIUIX,IYR,REM,PSP,LYSDY,HEMP,MJNA,MDBX,CBIS,GWPH|B|P5,3,3|0
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,CEF,GDX,SIL,PPP,AG,RGLD,FNV,SPPP,COPX,SCCO,FCX|B|P5,3,3|0

These where hit very hard during March-April sell off. 3D and pawn-shops are of interest to me.
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?DDD,SSYS,ONVO,EZPW,FCFS,CSH,YELP,FEYE,SPLK,WDAY,CACQ,MPEL|B|P5,3,3|0

More here: http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2014/04/digging.html
-------------------------------------------------------

ZHONGGUO

Zhongguo is the most common (mandarin) name for China, it means "Middle Country" or something similar. Here are some quotes from internets:

Ancient Chinese believe that China is the center of the world, its in the middle of earth... Some Western writers use the translation "middle kingdom" or "central kingdom" to imply that China has a deeply rooted self-centered psychology as the center of the universe...  The ancient Chinese believed that they are the only civilization on earth while being surrounded by barbarians... 

5000 years of national history is quite a claim, for sure. Plus there is this:

 Those assholes keep dissing Chinese, but they are the ones rocking made in China versace and driving in China manufactured Cadillac

ZHONGGUO investing is a challenge in itself, and has been a dud for a past few years. Complains? Fuck you.  Shanghai Composite Index ($SSEC) gained 6000% from 1990 to 2007, that is 60X your initial investment in less than 20 years, with plenty ups and downs to trade. Its resting now, but its not the first time its down 50% +. In a relatively short index history there where 2 such periods, lasting 4-6 years, followed by multi-year rip higher. Its not a question whether you will double your money, but how many times...
Below is a historical chart up to Dec'12. Notice - chart is log-scale !
Nothing much changed since then.

 I've been keeping an eye on a situation for years, even mentioned it here in April'12 (link).
There are some regulatory changes that will be at work for a next year or two. Specifically, there really isn't a straight way to invest in SSEC - its a composite index comprises of all the A shares (traded in local currency) and B shares (in foreign currency) listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Up until recently foreign investors where not allowed to go into 'inland' market. So we buy A-Shares listed in Hong-Kong (H-Shares), or go for N-Shares (Chinese companies listed in US market, but may or may not be incorporated in China), or other various layers of this particular scam.

All this may be changing soon, as foreign access to A listings controlled under the Qualified  Foreign institutional investor (QFII) scheme, has been relaxed somewhat in 2012 and again in March 2013. It is expected that A-shares with increase in allocation by as much as 60% over next couple of years. In that process China will likely become 4th or 5th largest equity market in the World. Presently Zhongguo is on #9 spot. Liquidity? I got your liquidity right here...
Big Boys are all over it. More here:
http://www.ftse.com/Research_and_Publications/2013Downloads/FTSE_China_A-shares_and_Global_Indices_Final_Version.pdf

Bunch of new ETF's popping up all over the place, all ready with enormous expense ratios, vague allocation rules, and not enough money to go around. I am still most interested in FXI (large cap A-shares in Hong Kong), and PGJ (US listed), with  possibly HAO (small caps)

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SSEC,FXI,GXC,MCHI,CHIQ,HAO,PGJ,fxp|B

PGJ - PowerShares Golden Dragon China Portfolio invests in N-Shares, Chinese companies listed in US.
http://www.invescopowershares.com/products/overview.aspx?ticker=PGJ#hold
Expense ratio 0.75%. Severely overweight in Information Technology (55%). Abnormally largest holding (8.5%) is CTRP - Ctrip.com - some kind of travel and lodging service I never heard of.

Finviz screen: China, over 300mil market cap, over $5, over 100K average volume. 49 results.
Most of top ones are in PGJ, but at different weightings.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?PTR,SNP,LFC,BIDU,NTES,QIHU,CTRP,SFUN,SINA,YOKU,EDU,VIPS|B
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ACH,YZC,MR,QUNR,YY,SOHU,GA,WX,NOAH,HMIN,EJ,HTHT|B

FXI - iShares FTSE China Large-Cap ETF, based on FTSE China 25 index, consisted mainly of  H-Shares - blue chip stocks of largest 25 Chinese companies (H Shares, Red Chips and P Chips) listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. This seems to be the best access to A-Shares, as we have only few US traded, Hong Kong listed, Chinese main land companies to invest. (CHL, CEO, CHU, MPEL?)
...Easy as ChinaKing menu...
September 2014 they will change it to FTSE China 50 index, doubling allocation to A-Shares.
http://www.ftse.com/Indices/FTSE_China_Index_Series/index.jsp  FXI has 0.75% exp ratio, 2% divi. Abnormally large allocation is  Financials 56%.http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/FXI.htm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE 11/26/2014
$SSEC started to rally at the end of summer 2014, and by November took out  2400-2500 resistance that started way back in winter of 2011. FXI is lagging somewhat, still fighting 40-42 level, but development is positive no doubt.
Investment landscape is poisoned by alot of scams and hype surrounding all kinds of internet, software and game stocks, plus BABA (ipo'd in September '14) pulled a lot of funds from everything China. Technically, stocks split into two distinct groups (for reasons unknown to me) -  some gap and jump all over the place, others trade tight with good daily patterns. I focus on latter kind. Specifically I want to avoid anything with wide following, many news and busy Yahoo message board.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HTHT,HMIN,MR,WX,CBPO,EDU,XRS,DL,NORD,JOBS,ZPIN,HOLI|B|P5,3,3|0

Of note:
all make money, except NORD
all don't have a lot of debt, except XRS and NORD
all don't have a lot of shorts, except ZPIN and MR (MR 16% float short; 23SR !)
all don't have high P/E, except JOBS (P/E 60!)
This list is not perfect by any stretch of imagination, but offers some alternatives off the beaten path, and should compliment FXI very nicely in 2015 and hopefully beyond.
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=150&t=HTHT,HMIN,MR,WX,CBPO,EDU,XRS,DL,NORD,JOBS,ZPIN,HOLI&o=-marketcap

New Moon

....developing....

New moon was 2 days ago, Solar is active non-stop with 2 M-Class flares last week and X-Class today. We are going to get fried down here, if there is no respite sometime soon.

           Planting starts this week, although its still 40's at night. If we don't plant now - there is not going to be any harvest anyway. I don't fertilaze, but I can't see what choice farmers will have. POT, MOS or bust, but I need a dip to buy. Grains are not looking very promising, but I opened half size JJG on possible double-bottom with some volume profile improvement. Its quite possible that I will buy more at lower price.
          Finviz has 2 groups I know nothing about - Farm products and Food Major, of which I have some in my watch list. Fly just went long ANFI - a 300mil Food-Major out of Emirates- I don't see this as good entry. Many talking about water stocks, but LNN is in a process of retesting a double top neckline (its a pretty big January-April double top). I was looking at GAGA - horrible looking chart of profitable largest greenhouse vegetable producers in China. The seems to be changing some things that may improve the situation, plus I am interested in everything China.

Of interest to me are:
DRYS here and above 1.90;
REMX, LYSDY and all main Rare Earths on some kind of dip, also URA, CCJ and Uranium group
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IYR,DDD,SSYS,SODA,YELP,ANGI,MDBX,PGH,FCX,VNM,drys,remx|B|P5,3,3


Watch-List Cleaner
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/04/watch-list-cleaner.html

On Pins and Needles

Yesterday, around 11am I wrote here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34229#comment-811871439):

That's a pretty aggressive sell-off, little bit more than i would like to see.
End of day will be really telling, except i will have to be away from comp.
Set stops for almost 3/4 of portfolio, on a top of some that I already sold.
Internals are kinda confusing.

 Over the next couple of hours I moved  some of them closer, sold some by-hand and then BOOM, power went out in a whole building. Luck favors prepared, I had my stops on already, but that was close.

SLD:

BRK/B - 99.49
CG       - 32.30 Needs to cool-down. I'll be back.
EWS    - 13.65
EZA     - 66.03
 HAO   - 24.16
 RSX    - 29.23
Emerging markets whipping me around all over the place. First EEM and now these 4. Need to reevaluate this whole EM thesis. Correction on weekly EEM still looks good, but where is the turn? 
GE       - 23.05
IWM   - 90.19
IYR     - 67.65
JJG      - 51.03  Grains and ag-stocks failed again. No re-entry for 4 days. Cheap food? - I don't believe it for a second.
MOO  - 53.71
SSO    - 67.11
TBT    - 66.75   TLT goes UP from bear flag. Resistance 120-121. Trap again?
XHB   - 27.45
 2/26 - GOOG 787.41 this seems unnesesarry
2/26  - FB 26.74 stopped out on LOD. Damn it. Will re-enter

BOT:
2/26 - QID 28.20 may be I'm overreacting and I really don't need this hedge, But QQQ couldn't even do a half/back of that bid 2/25 candle. 50Dma and 5Dema right overhead, stop above 67(qqq)

Now what?  VIX step 1 and 2 had been blown to pieces, more - I don't remember seeing such a big candle in recent past. Almost 40% jump in one day. Based on what - our and Italian politicians? Seems unlikely. Confidence indicator setting up a divergence, but its not big enough. Half Point notion from this post (link) is out the window. Volume is heavy, as it should be on down days. SPX is almost at bottom of 25BB (Bolinger band)

Bottom line is this: I am not buying or re-entering anything just yet. Not even with System 10, although its still on. Sitting and watching on pins and needles, observing reaction to key support levels:
1480/SPX - 50Dma; monthly pivot
1460/SPX - January break-out
1450/SPX - 20Wma

Positions (35% invested):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,TSLA,IBB,SCTY,TAN,CCJ,FB,GEO,SCO,goog|B|P5,3,3
 $CEX is for tracking intraday for FSCHX (1pos)
GOOG (leftover from S12T), SCO and TAN are Half Position size
SCTY is 1/4 pos

Starting Treasure Hunt - looking for stocks and groups, undisturbed by this manic sell-off.
Some of my own positions display these characteristics: IBB, SCTY, CCJ, FB, GEO and TSCO (that I sold on 2/20). I will sell any and all of them on break-down just the same, but so far they look very impressive and I am searching for more. Pot-trade is a keeper - MJNA was up 20% while all this going on, will add to it and others.

Some thoughts on PM (Precious Metals) and miners from Sunday night here (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=34187#comment-810731060):

           I'm not about to make a prediction, but this sure has a smell of capitulation. Even gold bugs are throwing a towel, saying that gold miners are so mismanaged that we are not going to see any kind of performance for years. This of-course does not included the crazies, who are always bullish, regardless of losses that would make their investors run for exits long ago.
          You know, I always keep away from "catching falling knives". Now I look at this industry and asking myself: Could this be a finest example of value investing? 

And later on Monday:

This collapse last week sure has all ingredients of capitulation.
I'm not saying it's THE bottom, but....fighting a strong desire to buy some miners down here.
           Darth Gerb on GDX:
long term - no go, until..
I want to see a 50% retrace down to $33, later this year.
no one wants to own a hole in the ground.
           My reply:
"no one wants it" - is exactly my point.

Chris Norman is amazing even 30 years later. This is how I remember it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwbXWwTHKtQ

Detailed Position Review.

I feel a bit giddy and careless, so I must stop and look around. I have less than 10% cash.

SLD:
2/4 - EEM on stop 44.02 (B/E) (Total for EEM in 2013 is B/E)
         Note on EEM: emer mrkts bond where collapsing all January. See PCY, EMB. This bull flag is taking too long on daily, but weekly still looks ok. I think I need to go to individual countries or regions.
2/4 - FB on stop 28.45 (B/E on last half-pos lot) (Total for FB +3.5%)
2/4 - KOL on stop 24.83 (-3%)
2/4 - XHB on stop 28.45 (+8%)
2/4 - now cash is over 20% and I'm not giddy anymore
2/7 - PTR 137 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-85
2/7 - XOM 87.63 (per rules S12T, BTFT) $-81 Decided not to wait. PBar to 86.04 - very unusual for this stock.
2/8 - TM 104.28 quick trade exit (+6.5%)

BOT:
2/5 - MON 102.31  Stop under 100. PFT 111; 134
2/5 - GE 22.56 (S12T ;  BTFT)
2/6 - TAN 18.40 Half pos. I sold it on 1/25 here at same price. (Note 2/10 - Damn it, its breaking down again)
2/6 - MOO 55.72 In low volume correction
2/7 - GEO 33.04 for quick trade
2/8 - ZSL 45.75 for quick trade
2/8 - XLE 78.24 on br-out to new high for quick trade
2/8 - HAO 24.69 Half pos
2/8 - EZA 67.75 Little more than half pos

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IWM,XLU,$CEX,XHB,CG,TSLA,FB,JJG,TBT,KOL,SLX,IBB|B|P5,3,3
$CEX, XLU are for tracking intraday for FIUIX, FSCHX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,scty,tm,ccj,mon|B|P5,3,3
Chemicals and Utilities are 2x positions,
CG, FB, SCTY are half size

CCJ  -   Support 20.50 - 21. ER 2/11amc. No shorts. PFT 29.50
CG      - Holding. ER 2/21.  Last PFT 37; now in correction (PFT 26?). All these PFT met.
EEM  - Stop 44.02 set. All out. Now in corr PFT 43. Last PFT 56;  61
FB      - Holding, Stop 28.45 set. All out. Waiting for it to cool-down after earn. In corr to PFT 25.
XLU   -Holding. PFT 38.50;  42;  45.50
$CEX- Holding. PFT 370met.  More PFT 508-512.
IBB   - stop on close under 144. PFT 150; 172
IWM - still waiting for 20dma. PFT 88 met. More targets 91.50;  95;  104
JJG   - Stop on close under 53 - not sure, have PFT 52.75. Last PFT 60.30
KOL - May sell today, watching. Sold. Looking to re-enter
SCTY- Higher low may fail. Support 14 - 14.50
SLX  - Second failure. 48 - support. PFT 52; 62; 69; 72
TBT  - has to hold Jan low 63-64, or its a trap again. 66 - support. PFT 77-78; 87
TM   - stop on close under 94.  ER 2/8bmo or was it today? PFT 107; 123; 138
TSLA - Holding. ER 2/11.  SR still 21!  37% of float short. 39.95 is all time high. PFT 41.50;  52; 61
XHB   - Stop 28.45 set. All out. Last PFT 39

MD - all must be entered by Feb 8, unless exit criteria met. This started S12T.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,PTR,GOOG,BRK/B,GE,IBM,RDS/B,CVX,bhp|B|P5,3,3
BHP is in BTFT and #14, but I took it just the same.
Still need  GE, RDS/B  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)
Update 2/5 - PTR to exit by 2/11; XOM in danger

 BTFT - all entered into OX paper trade on open 1/28/2013. LP as of 1/28.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HBC,BHP,PTR,JNJ,FMX,NVS,ORCL,PFE,TM,GOOG,BRK/B,XOM|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ibm,cvx,ge|B|P5,3,3
GE, RDS/B are not in BTFT and will have to be added within 2PP (by Feb 8)
  (2/5 - RDS/B is not available)

iBergamot BOT: YELP, SLV, GDXJ

I BOT:
YELP - because everything else is shit, and I have 50% cash looking for home
YELP  stop  23.95
SLV and GDXJ - because nobody wants them
also long ES @ 1365 - because I can. Stop out @1366.50. Good.

China ETF's don't match $SSEC performance.
Exp ~.60% (FXI is highest at .72%; HAO is .70%)
All pay div ~2%, except CHIQ 0.37%

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FXI,GXC,MCHI,CHIQ,HAO,PGJ|C|J[$ssec]