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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Liquidation. PART 1 -- THE END.

9:20am
Exchanges expecting limited liquidity. That's bad for me. I was thinking to just dump everything at open, but decided to be professional about it and sell carefully to get the best prices of the day. Great earnings from TTWO - up 7% in premarket. I started to buy game stocks months ago ( in this post), they will go up into X-Mas IMNSHO
9:55am
Tight stops set for all positions. Now i just trail them up. Everything will be sold before close. I am killing my creation. "Angry" doesn't even begins to describe it.
1pm
Only about 20% left. My body is majorly giving up. Popping painkillers. Mentally I'm FUBAR. Obviously, trading of System 10 or anything else is not allowed.
3:50pm
All out. Few hundred better than opening total.
System 9 is a workable system, but successful or not - that i don't know.

iBERGAMOT  PART 1 -- THE END

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?che,ea,gme,ttwo,mat,geo,hcn,mr,lysdy,mcp,ree,tas|B

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?calvf,epz.v,sil,kors,lsi,tayc|B

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xlu,hyg,ibb,iyr,kre,xlf,eem,moo,xhb,xrt|B




 

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Day before Liquidation

The most disturbing thing in this situation is : I Will Never Find Out how it ENDS !
I'm not afraid of fuck-up. I  take a chance, I  push and try. Fail and start again. I  make all new mistakes and try not to repeat old ones. I go for it until Fat Lady.
This is totally different. My chance is taken away. My work has no use. My obligations are not fulfilled, even worst - my best chance to fulfill these obligations is no longer an option.
All this is happening just as i am going full speed, working maximum hours with outmost dedication. My research shows a high amount of promising situations. Wide variety of great setups is presented. This type of situation happens couple of times a year at most. In the past, I only made aware of it when it's too late. Now I'm in it as it unfolds, already positioned in best and strongest areas, also in Rare Earths and PM. Invested by over 100% and fully prepared to go up to 250%. My risk management and position sizing makes it possible with less then 10% risk at this moment in time. This is situation for which Flagship account was open, this is what it meant for. A combination of key leading ETF's with "kicker" individual stocks with futures hedge when necessary. Beautiful, powerful, diversified and low risk - my creation. I have no other account set up for that.
  A modest 20% rally on 250% invested account is 50% profit. This is how it's done; This is what I'm talking about; Nobody listens. Crickets. Fuck.

Monday, October 29, 2012

iBergamot. Part 2.

 I'm Working on It.
Goes without saying, this campaign is not over. It started suddenly during December 2011, and went  with minor setback in May. Even that did't cost me too much. Now for sure, I'm going with direction of bull market. This dip  right now - I was buying, heavily into leading strongest stocks.
That is not a plan anymore.
With main account gone, so are my plans for larger operation. Not that am going to quit. O, no! Not until the Fat Lady. It's just that moves I planned out are no longer available. Need new plan.
In the mean time, I still have money to run. I'm responcible for it, and its no less important than before.
Plus, I still have System 10 and it's "on" right now. Except for hurricane that closed the market. I'm just waiting.



"Why 90% of Traders Lose" by Nadeem Walayat

Doesn't apply to my present situation, but a great read from Nadeem Walayat about 1987 crash, TA, pundits and economists and all.
 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37116.html
"In my opinion, a high 90% of traders are destined to lose because they are in fact learning from / listening to the 90% of losing traders that preceded them, who following wipe out in the markets have gone on to focus on writing about market price action and methodology with an even greater concentration observed to occur in the mainstream press as account busted traders / investors turn failure to trade into full time media careers and thus perpetuate a continuous cycle of failing traders guiding new traders towards similar failure. "
Thanks Nadeem

Sunday, October 28, 2012

iBergamot Lost

And just like this, I lose. My biggest Flagship account puled money yesterday. Everything will be sold on Monday before close. He needs money. I promised that portfolio will be liquid and money are available at any time. He understood this is not one time kind of a deal, that money grows over time, thru ups and downs. But reality is not often what I perceive or prepared for. My biggest fear was not my losses - I had my fair share; always recovered and made more. I was afraid that IB will go under and take my account with it. Well...
Now I am like a cab driver whose Ford Crown Vic is taken away, and he is given Smart instead. He can drive around, but making money as cab driver... It's kinda not an option anymore.
And what the Fuck am I suppose to do with all my research, stock selection, preparation, strategy etc. You know...
Sad

Saturday, October 27, 2012

In a Middle of Shit-Storm. El Macho


video
Your date has gone home
Now you're left on your own sweet own
Your tough-talkin' friend
Split on you in the bitter end
And you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry

They say you're a star
That's what the boys all say you are
I don't see much TV
So you don't mean shit to me
But you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry

They got a name for people like you
Yeh they do
And they got a name for people like me too
El Macho, El Macho

Now they want you to sing
Don't get shy or anything
The boys are all here
Gonna buy you another beer
'Cos you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry
El Macho, El Macho

Listen: Marc Faber; Jeremy Rifkin

Long interview with Marc Faber. Talks about everything



 Jeremy Rifkin, 'The Third Industrial Revolution' "How lateral power is transforming energy, the economy, and the world."
According to Rifkin, industrial revolutions occur when new energy regimes emerge and new communications systems enable them to become operational.  We are now entering a  third industrial revolution, one which combines renewable energy and internet technology to transform the power grid.
That's what I'm looking for


Friday, October 26, 2012

Possible T, just need the bottom

  • I Bergamot
     /ES. 1418 is still important.
    Just in case, there is a traditional A/D T. Just need a double bottom for centerpost.
    DG ! Look it up. You are a Tee expert
  • Darth_Gerb, Incorrigible Iconoclast
  • EDIT: yes, very good.
    for the illiterate, the descending highs indicate a 'cash build up' period.
    a decline to a major low (NYMO) would indicate an end of that period, and a start of a rally, such as Fearless is alluding to. The rally would be of equal measure as the descending build-up period. The blue rectangle of 2010/2011 is a good example.
    -Gerb


Monday, October 22, 2012

Positions. Last week's talks.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?che,ea,geo,gme,gway,hcn,kbh,kors,mcp,ree,tas,mr|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?nov,tayc,ttwo,calvf,epz.v|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HYG,IBB,IYR,KRE,MOO,XLU,XRT,XHB,TBT,XLF,LYSDY,UGA|B|P5,3,3

UGA is a short.
No TBT now. Looking to enter. May short TMF.
HCN, MCP, NOV, TAYC are 1/2pos. Add or drop.

Oct 15:
I surely hope that Fearless is right, and this is up and up from here.  As for put/call ratio, I don't see it that clear on expiration week. I remember my option trading years. This is a time when they loose sleep and run out of nail to chew. Just imagine you position is about to go to option heaven. Puff... you lose. I say - let them kill each other off - the air will be much clearer next Monday.
Meanwhile, at "major averages ranch", IWM is sucking brick, QQQ has plenty of overhead resistance to fight and SPX is back at the point where it's 50 points up or down from here. Truly in a market of stocks - you need to pick your spots. KORS + TIF = happy. KRE + YELP = sad.
I'm really looking at Dollar, famously showing "suicidal tendencies" (plagiarizes from Mole). If that thing breaks down from 79/80 box, where its been for past 20 days... One can have a dream. Right?
Back to your regularly scheduled chop-fest
 Oct 19:   http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31381
Daaam, I'm missing all fun. totally swamped at office with 2 (two!) surprise audits. These people surely want me to quit this damn job.
Open interest on ES stands at whooping 3017000. I view high open interest as indicator of too many shorts in the market. Last time it was over 3mil was in end of August, close to contract expiry. Those shorts got squeezed, today's shorts will get murdered. I'm not saying that this thing will turn today, but I will not short it for any more than few hours ( and probably not at all)
Please, keep in mind that I keep my stocks for weeks-to-months.
 Bollinger on VIX is so narrow, it may get step 1 within days. Or even today. Sell-sell-sell! Come to papa!
 Ahem, excuse me, But  Nasdaq A/D hit 3rd lowest reading in 6 months. -1650. The only two lower readings where near bottoms on June 1 and july 23.
what the hell is going on? Somebody bombed us?

  • I Bergamot                      http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31398
    Fine. Them peoples are in pain and selling everything. I help them, poor souls, and bought some. Interestingly, 30yr bond doesn't look giddy at all. On a down day like today I was expecting it it be up much more.
    So my question is this. If money go out from stocks and PM - where are they going?
  • volar, futures trader
     shocked here too mate. no panic volume in equities at the moment.
    Bottom is nas and NYSE volume, middle emini volume
    no panic selling yet- but really only thing green on my screen is spreads, and corn/wheat, natty.
    http://content.screencast.com/..

    I Bergamot
     That I understand. But stock traders usually don't cross over to these commodities. I, for one, cannot handle them.

    volar, futures trader
     my point. no volume- no real transfer. commods (obviously not high beta oil, copper, gold) are up- just a sign of strength for those markets

    I Bergamot
    Are you saying they are scaring the children?

    volar, futures trader
     i dunno- just saying i like to buy when others are in utter panic- this clearly not it today


    Not much short covering into close. I demand more blood! Pain, suffering and broken support . I am going to hate every second of this weekend.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

I Have Nothing to Lose but My Chains. Forward!

Fuck Lenin. That degenerate syphilitic screwed up big time, and he knew it too. Its easy to do shit, when you got unlimited German money to back you up.
Ends badly though. Greeks apparently don't know that.
Fuck them too, I got my money to worry about.
I am moving ahead. What I do is working. This is hardest and longest step of my life.
I'm crossing that 110th street and there is no turning back.
Forward !



Position changes

developing...

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Stops getting hit. Sukkot is over.


Stopped out :
CHK (short)
MD
STMP - re-buy possible
TSLA
I'm really tired of TSLA. Elon Musk or not - this stock has taken me for a ride 3 times, with only losses to show for it. I'm sure it has a great future ahead. i have to wait and see.

Jewish holidays are over and I'm all tingling with anticipation...lol

Confidence indicator still does not show any confidence, and Golden Indicator has negative divergence. Both can last awhile , but not good regardless.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Market is War. Strike Back and The Heavy.

I eat what I kill.
Market is war - it doesn't wait for moment when I have time, or feel good, or in the mood to play.
Enemy will strike at every opportunity.
Likewise, there is an easy pray. I take it every time I see it. I'm always looking for it. Everyday.
I have a choice. I can be a predator or the pray. Guess who wins?
video




Monday, October 1, 2012

Listen: Marc Faber and more

Nina Xiang of China Money Podcast, guest Fritz Demopoulos, founder of Queen's Road Capital, shares his thoughts on China's Internet sector and entrepreneurship.
http://www.chinamoneypodcast.com/2012/09/24/fritz-demopoulos-i-back-committed-first-mover-start-ups/
 China is different because with a small amount of capital, you can survive for a long time. You give 20 companies a couple of million dollars a piece, they are going to last for five or six years even if those models haven't been successful. I'm not sure if that's the right way to look at it. If failure means going bankrupt, not many companies go bankrupt because you can last for a long time in creative ways in China.

Marc Faber. As usually - equities, cash, PM, corp bonds, real estate.
 FNN AU Marc Faber 'Optimistic Prediction 4 Central Bankers Fate

video




http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/09/ray-dalio-in-depth-interview-on-myriad.html


September 2012

developing...