Daily Global Economic Calendar

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Friday, June 28, 2013

Flip-Flopping

SLD:
6/27 - ZSL  110.17  Half out at +30%
6/27 - TBT  73.48  Half out 10% profit
6/27 - SRS  21.07 Small loss again. How do I manage to take small losses on a short of weakest group. Not good at-all!
QID - 23.48 Scratch at B/E. I find it confusing to short QQQ - first its leading than its lagging SPX. I find IWM price action much easier to read. At the moment IWM is strongest, trying to get atop of all ma's on daily chart.
6/28 - ZSL 103.32 All out
6/28 - NIB 28.44 Stopped out on lowest print. Damn. I would rebuy it right back, if all commodities where not so weak. Generally speaking I think softs need to be traded differently - hit and run, don't sit thru corrections. Specifically, both NIB and BAL where in profit at some point, but end up stopped at loss. The only problem with this - how do I hook a big trend?

BOT:
6/28 - SLV 18.75 Half pos. Now I have 1 full position.
6/28 - GDX 23.98 Half pos. Now I have 1.5 pos size.
6/28 - SCTY 37.75 Half pos
7/2 - VNM 19.30 Half pos. I think its a strongest of all Emerging Markets, very close to last support.
7/3 - SRS 21.21 Re-enter at higher price. IYR is breaking down again below 20dma. Close stop above recent high 67.10(IYR)
7/3 - BAL 54.58 Half pos. Lets see if I can trade it quicker.

Yesterday  NYSE A/D hit highest intraday reading of all 2013. Nazdaq is not far behind.
Overall A/D was a poor indicator since May top - it keeps flip-flopping.
Four days ago it signaled a bear market and crash warning.
As of yesterday it gives all clear to bulls, correction is over.
That's summer market for you
I intend to do very little, if nothing at-all until after holiday.

Market is not out of the woods yet. Its presently in 1610-1620SPX  resistance, then gap-fill ~1630, then 1650 bull trap (that caught me here (link)). Weekly is painting a hammer again at support 20wma. Daily is not a bad rally off 1560 low, with gaps everyday making it hard to buy. Internals improving sharply.  I really have to consider that this is a buyable dip, but I will hold off all new purchases because I am being whipped around too much. Concerning is big selling on close every day for weeks with Market-On-Close (MOC) sell imbalances (per Mr TopStep).  
There is a ton of support starting with 1598SPX.

Astrology Traders report on recent high solar activity here:
http://www.zentrader.ca/blog/?p=19877
"On June 28th a geomagnetic storm began, at its peak the storm sparked Northern Lights across the US as far south as Kansas....The key dates I have mentioned were April 6, 2013, September 18, 2013, and September 28, 2013. "

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Ci Sara

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes....somebody said.
The reason why I am fixated a bit on this kind of top is because of a treacherous nature of it. How fast a pullback of a strong bull market turns into failure. Look at it - only few days to sell, before "window is the only way out". If you don't have discipline, if you don't have a plan - you don't stand a chance.
OTOH some tops take time to distribute, to chop for months, like 1999-2000, following slow drift down. This will give people some time, although outcome is the same - it will not be so dramatic for participant's psychology.
I believe this is fractal, and observed on multiple time-frames.
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=36635
1987
2013
  I remember summer 2011, like it was yesterday. 40 down, then another 60 down reversing and painting hammer, then 80 down. I lost it. Terror...
I learned alot about myself then, using these lessons now (I think)

 Just looking at all asset classes (except Dollar) go down together, I had a scary thought:
Can you imagine a bear market like this, with no place to hide, lasting for months and months?
Don't think its impossible

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,NM,TK,TBT|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,NIB,JJG,SDS,QID,SRS,EWJ,CCJ,TSCO,ZSL|B|P5,3,3
FSCHX(CEX) 2/3pos;   NM, SLV, TRX, SIL, RGLD half-pos

Main1
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NYA,$SPX,$COMPQ,QQQ,IWM,EFA,EEM,$TNX,UUP,GLD,USO,GCC|B|P5,3,3
S&P Sectors+
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLY,ibb,gdx|B|P5,3,3

Watch list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?TSLA,PGH,XHB,XLK,FB,DDD,YELP,ANGI,GSVC,ULTI,tan,scty|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?PALL,GOLD,PPP,LODE,Bal,GAGA,ANFI,LNN,MON,sea,tnk,stng|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SEA,kex,tgp,too,TDW,CKH,SSW,MATX,STNG,DRYS,DSX,ckh|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MDBX,CBIS,MJNA,HEMP,PHOT,AVTC,TRTC,ERBB,SRER,GRNH|B|P5,3,3

While everything is oversold together on daily time-frame, I remember the same right before 2011 summer crash. Assuming there is a bounce, SPX is sitting right on 100dma and 20wma with bunch of support levels below, but 1610-1620SPX needs to be taken first. How long will it take, will it be enough - remains to be seen, but TTheory Vol Osc and My A/D Indicator made lower lows and both remain in bear market territory, Volume Profile deteriorated as expected, and I have 3ptPF Target of 1470SPX.
Bradley Turn Date is 6/22, full moon 6/23, solar activity is on a rise again.

................................IN THE NEWS.....................

Its like this: economic news are all good or better than good, and seems to indicate continuing growth in USA and not in China. All other news are all negative and there are alot of them. Looks like they dig out every piece of nasty news, even dust off some old ones, so whatever your preference is - there is a negative story to worry about. This all nonsense of-course and I am trying to stay away from madness, besides I don't see anything critically important at the moment. It is customary for a big crisis to present itself after markets collapse somewhat, unfortunately profit opportunities are limited by the time reasons are known.


video
Ci sara’ - una storia d'amore e un mondo migliore.
Ci sara' - un azzurro piu' intenso e un cielo piu' immenso.
Ci sara' - la tua ombra al mio fianco vestita di bianco.
Ci sara' - anche un modo piu' umano per dirsi ti amo di piu'.


 There will be – a love story and a better world
There will be – sky-blue more intense and a sky more immense
There will be – your shadow by my side dressed in white
There will be – also a world more human for to say I love you the most

Friday, June 21, 2013

Op Ex Day

Yesterday I noted here http://evilspeculator.com/?p=36635#disqus_thread
 Everything is down together (stocks, bonds, silver, oil)
No place to hide
Year of Cicadas...lol

All my A/D indicators are at "last stand" line.
In recent past it led to hard V-type reversal.
If fails, SPX will have a 14xx handle by Monday

BOT:
6/19 - SRS 21.34  Double-short Real Estate (IYR)
I tried to short RE before, but it was too strong and stopped me out. May 22 was the top, and it went straight down without giving me an entry until today - on reaction to 20dma, double inside day breakdown and sto cross. Considering how far and fast it fallen, I can't figure out the target and will play it day-by-day.
6/20 - QID 23.51 After a fake-our breakout, when I stopped out only 2 days ago, this double-short QQQ is back on. Watching 72QQQ area for reaction.

SLD:
6/20 - XHB 29.54
6/20 - TSLA - 101.80   Tesla was holding fine until today. Poor price action midday. Exit. I need to stay away from TSLA forawhile.
6/20 - PGH 4.82 On stop. Looking for reentry.
6/20 - FB 23.83  For few months I  see accumulation in intraday price action, and expecting bottom to be made, but may be at lower levels still. 24-25 is strong resistance area, also where 200dma is.
6/21 - XLK 30.53

...........................................IN THE NEWS......................................
Obama fires Bernanke on live TV on Charlie Rose program.
Riots in Turkey and Brazil - something about benefits, economy etc. not sure
China's interest rates explode, they doing cash injection into some banks.
Obama and Putin where suppose to have disarmament talks, its seems to fell thru. I guess nuke recycling agreement is a toast. Can't find any info anywhere. Maybe there is hope for uranium industry, represented by CCJ.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Fed Day

             I have no clue whatsoever about how market will react to whatever Fed say today. I am 100% sure that whatever price action unfolds  will be attributed to whatever Fed say today. I continue to completely disregard any theories about cost and effect of QE, including their current operations and/or future plans, regardless of whatever Fed say today. Based on price action in US Treasuries, my profits in TBT and $TYX up 39% since summer 2012 - Fed lost control of at-least long term yields and bonds are in bear market, making whatever Fed say today irrelevant.

            Internal indicators show relief of overbought conditions across the board, no apparent divergences. All advance-decline studies show rising bottoms, will levels at or around zero. There is definitely room to upside. TTheory Volume Oscillator seems to have at-least short range T  with projected peak 2-3 weeks away.

          I was comparing My A/D Indicator based on NYSE vs usual Nazdaq - it seems that $NYAD gives cleaner signal with less whipsaw around zero level. It just crossed 0 going up.

          I am fully prepared to see market completely collapse here. It will cost me some, but I know what to do, and I know how big rewards are when I do it right. Watch

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Non - Delta Neutral

BOT:
XLK - 31.92  Support 31.50, stop under 31. Technology is one of strongest sectors, but i don't have any techies.
ZSL - 85.35 Full position of double-short Silver to hedge. Close stop - if silver doesn't collapse here, it doesn't collapse at-all.

SLD:
TZA - 30.57
QID - 22.52
HDGE - 15.98
All sold at large loss, aka puke. Market (via SPX) corrected about 5%, which is a normal correction in bull market. I have PF target for SPX 1746, no divergences, and weekly chart looks like legit buy point for at-least few weeks rally. 5 week EMA of SPX is 1639, I see it as a line between UP and ??? For now market is not going down, so I have no business to hold shorts. It may change fast - then I will change.

I dropped all short hedges except double-size position SDS. Mainly I am pretty tired of seeing all my profits from long positions being wiped out by shorts, including degenerates from HDGE. Specifically about HDGE- I understand certain fundamental criteria makes stocks seems overvalued, but price has to go down too. Theirs don't.

S&P500 closed above 1650 and just a couple of points above June double-bottom high. Whether its a true break-out or not, in most purist technical sense - we have a series of higher lows and now higher highs, hence the trend changed to up. Close below 50dayMA or most recent lows will invalidate this trend change.
A triangle from late May is also busted, besides it never made it to target, which makes this market stronger or so it seems. I am not much sure about anything, especially until tomorrow - FOMC day, that is why I kept SDS (double-short S&P) and in size.

When market next collapses, it may be a big one. I think I get it by now - how things work that is - I don't see present investors keeping any gains, if history can be used as a guide. I have seen a lot of history.

Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,NIB,JJG,SDS,EWJ,PGH,CCJ,FB,TSCO,xlk,zsl|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,GDX,SIL,FNV,RGLD,TRX,NM,TK,TBT,XHB,TSLA|B|P5,3,3
FSCHX(CEX) 2/3pos;   NM, PGH, SLV, TRX, SIL, RGLD half-pos

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?iyr,ibb,vnm,hao,pgj,sea,tnk,tk,stng,bal,gaga,kol|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xle,oih,fcx,ige,xlb,bas,ura,mcp,pio,lnn,tan,scty|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xlk,gsvc,ddd,yelp,angi,imax,rst,dva,gasx,faz|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?gold,hl,pvg,pplt,pall,ppp,lode,goro,agi|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?WETF,AMBA,GTAT,YGE,IMMR,HOV,USG,MTU,nmr,yelp,anfi,fro|B|P5,3,3