Double Dip T

In 2018, broad market indexes topped at the end of January, crashed and based over Spring, followed by mild and low-participation rally that managed to push S&P into nominal new highs. All that fizzled at the end of Summer and market, followed by economy, slid into double-dip recession which (hopefully) ended on Christmas Eve 2018.

Based on Advance-Decline statistics of NYSE, market exhausted itself on either August 29 or September 21, 2018 and went into cash buildup phase according to T-Theory.

Traditional placement of a center-post of the Time Symmetry (aka T) - into lowest reading of A-D for this cycle - produces 64 to 80 days of natural rally from the Low, projecting late April of 2019 High for Stocks. However, in recent years, this measurement had been inadequate - either pointing to a temporary pause in up-trend or to outright unremarkable period.

Surprisingly accurate results had been achieved by waiting for a Last low before the breakout of Advance-Decline line, although this judgement is quite subjective and open to interpretation.
Nevertheless, this Last low before the breakout of A-D line seemed to happened 3 days ago (last Friday March 8) and getting confirmation today (if it holds). Cash build-up phase for this T (appearing in green on a chart) is 114-130 days, projecting High in Stocks sometime in September 2019, with usual 10% margin of error...

... like I don't know that stocks always top and fall in the Fall...
... well, not always always, but typically they do...
...anyway...

Dow Paradox Strikes Back

Dow Paradox has been my modus operandi for many years.

Five years ago, almost to the date, I wrote here (link):

The purposeful manipulation of index components is designed to produce positive outcome, thus creating an upward equity slope - an illusion of increasing wealth and prosperity - The Dow Paradox!

In a sense of this phenomenon,  2018 is off the charts. A great calamity started in a beginning of this year, when S&P Global (the main purveyor of indexes galore) and MSCI (the other snake oil peddler) announced massive changes to their industry classification structure - GICS. The monumental reshuffle of sectors and industry groups (started with removal of REITs from Financial sector not so long ago) continues with introduction of all new and shiny Communication Services sector.
https://us.spindices.com/documents/index-policies/sector-classification-system-dj-indices.xls?force_download=true

I am not about to second guess wizards of S&P Global, besides it makes a whole lot more sense to keep Google and Facebook out of Technology sector, but this thingy will have quite an eclectic mix. Alongside of presently defined Telecoms (like AT&T and Comcast), new sector will also include publishing, movies, entertainment and interactive media - companies taken from Tech, IT and Consumer sectors.

I will be updating and revising System9 Consolidated Watch List, once 'rotation of 2018' is over. These type of changes are nothing new to me and don't cause any disruption to my investment process, because I operate strictly according to Dow Paradox and generally geared towards capitalizing upon its nature and reality. As for everybody else - watch out when walking under tall buildings - they will be tossing all that laborious intermarket relationship research and weighty sector rotation models right out the fucking windows.

Current S&P500 allocation, according to Spiders (link):
 

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On June 19, Walgreens pharmacy (WBA) replaced General Electric (GE) in Dow Jones Industrial Average. GE had been a longest continuous member of DJIA, stayed in it from very beginning, but visibly lost its way over past couple of decades. Formerly the bluest of blue chips, and seemingly perpetually biggest industrial company in the World, is now a pale reflection of itself. GE never recovered from the financial crisis (GFC), moreover - it sits now near 2009 lows, priced at 1/5 of its 2000 high. (chart from Yahoo)

This is not the first rotten 20 years stretch GE had to endure. Presented in a chart below is a period from 1962 to 1982 (prices adjusted for splits and dividends, i think), with big green candle of August 1982 that kicked out a monster 60x bull run culminated in a chart above.

Before my dear readers (all two of you) get all hot and bothered about long term prospects of banned light bulb maker, jet engines and locomotives and nuclear reactors builder, hospital and biomed equipment manufacturer, lending bank and more of god knows what - I want to remind that all this gobbledygook and squiggly wiggly lines on a chart means exactly dick (for making money in trading). GE is sort of an index of itself - a gigantic conglomerate of businesses that changed hugely overtime. So much so, that essence of Dow Paradox must be applicable to this single and somewhat unique stock.

From the same article of 2013:

What is a point of doing long term technical analysis on a price chart of $INDU or DIA, or SPX, or many other so called 'indexes' ,when composition changes so much - its not the same index, not even close. Companies dropped from major index suffer massive outflows, sometimes for years, and often even go bankrupt (remember Kodak).

I don't think that fate of Kodak will befall upon General Electric.  Unlike Kodak (who's product went extinct), GE still makes important things, employs 300 thousand people, with sales of over 100Bil (P/S is 0.89!), almost 4% divi, and presence in 180 countries (out of 196 total).

I will not be making any predictions about GE future price movements, nor I will offer a trade recommendations. Rather, I want to make an observation - GE was one of 12 biggest stocks in USA for years. As such, its been a permanent member of System12, and I traded it on several occasions with last trade sold a bit over $30 in September 2016 (post link). System Rules never provided a new entry into GE up until October 2017, when this thing fell off Mega Dozen, tumbled through Second Dozen and became disqualified from System12.
Read more about System12 here (link).

2018 Spring T

Double top and double bottoms in NYSE Advance Decline line makes for too many possible top dates. I focus on a longest projection targeting mid-August top, unless recent lows gets taken out.
T-Theory has been spot on for few years now, with recent T's overrunning their projected top dates. This is an indication of a very strong, one way bullish market. Spring T of 2018 will show if it remains to be so.

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I am making this note before 2013 runs off the chart,
There is a possibility of a very large Rate T, spanning almost 10 years starting in 2013 - Teen Rate T.
30-Year Treasury Bond yield peaked at 3.93% on week of August 19 and then double-topped 15 weeks later at 3.97% on week of December 2, 2013. From there yield collapsed to 2.22% in early 2015 and produced a Rate T (I had it laid out here).

What if that was just a beginning? Next low, the lower low, came on week of July 5, 2016 at 2.1%. The span of left side of the T from highest high to lowest low is 135 weeks, with projection for "Low in Stocks" week of February 4, 2019. Plus / minus 10% margin of error of base range and keep in mind a previous high of interest rates 15 weeks earlier - rout in stocks can last from October 2018 till end of summer of 2019. Difficulty in projecting a very large, multi-year time symmetries is that ripples from price movement gets smeared over extended time-line and lose their predictive powers, making trading on this type of analysis very difficult in real time. I just want to take these measurements before data runs off a left side of free chart. Continue...

Apparent multi-year resistance at 3.2% level opens a variant of a "last low before the breakout".
Note: breakout has not happened yet. We may be in a process of it now, it may happen later or not at all.
The span of left side of the T is 196 weeks from highest high to last low of 2.65% on week of September 5, 2017, projecting a Low in Stocks around week of June 7, 2021. Since my crystal ball is fuzzy at such distances, I say period of softness in stock prices may last from spring of 2021 to summer of 2022.

In other words, bear market in stocks that started on January 29 of this year (2018) will last 4 long years and will bottom in a first half of 2022 somewhere south from here.
FML

... or
stocks rally thru summer 2018, perhaps making a nominal high above January top
then have a traditional crash in September - October, linger into Spring 2019,
double bottom or new panic lows in Summer 2019,
followed by face-ripping rally till the end of 2020,
culminated with mother of all bear markets in 21-22
... or
SNAFU

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Zooming in into 30-year bond yield, I am tempted by a Rate T in development since the beginning of 2017. Presented below is a double top around 3.2% in December 2016 and March 2017. First measurement pointed to week of March 5, 2018 with actual low in stocks arriving 2 weeks later (within the margin of error). The next projection hits on week of May 29. Beyond that i am not sure. To seriously consider 2 green time symmetries I need to see 3.2% level decisively taken out, but so is a Teen Rate T, with corresponding conclusions.

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UPDATE 4/9/2019
RATE T of 2017-2019 seems to be completed now.
That last light-green symmetry is no longer valid, because it was based on "last low before breakout" notion.
Breakout at 3.2 yield has failed at the end of 2018.
With lower low in 30year yield at the end of March 2019 - there is a good chance that a new Rate T is underway. Destination unknown.

VIDEO: T Theory Observations for Summer 2017. Conflict T.

Conflict T projects summer top, while Rate T projects low of stocks. We may see some MOVES...

Winter T of 2016-2017 , mentioned in this video, is here:
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2017/03/video-winter-t-review-and-s-trend.html

Rate T projections of 2017 Low in Stocks was explained in December 2016 video:
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2016/12/video-t-theoty-observations-12-2016.html

VIDEO: Winter T Review and S&P500 Trend

In this video I review projections of Advance-Decline Time Symmetry with center post on December 1, 2016. This "Winter T' was originally identified in December (post link) and later updated in January (post link). Although i had some concerns about validity of this T, it worked out very well and guided stock market higher without any meaningful pullback.

There still remains a matter of unresolved "Nested T' with centerpost on January 19, 2017, identified only a few days after center post was fixed. Here, the initial projection is already satisfied, but "Nested T' displayed some strange behavior in a beginning of February, which leads me to believe that remaining projections for March 17 and especially April 4 will most likely target a low (give or take 3-4 days).

My Advance-Decline Indicator (MADI) is under 'Zero" line, indicating unfavorable period for stocks.
S&P500 Trend analysis, based on custom Keltner channels, shows market as overextended and on a cusp of imminent correction. Based on prior occurrences, this dip may be about 7% (or as far down as 2200SPX). Caution is required, accordingly I carry about 40% cash balance in main account, but my approach will remain flexible and subject to change based on constantly evolving variety of possible outcomes.

VIDEO: T Theory Observations 1-2017. Nested T.

Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

I discovered a small T, nested inside larger 'Winter T' (post link).
Also I updated target dates for 'Winter T', to correct for a discrepancy due to how my charting service accounts for future dates.

Any way I look at it - there is a period of heightened volatility in near future and no top projection dates past March 1, 2017

VIDEO: T Theory Observations 12-2016

Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

'Winter T' projects tops and bottoms for Stock Market in January and February 2017.
Upon closer inspection I discovered a T with center posts in November and possibly in December of this year. Because 'Winter T' is too short in duration, has questionable center post for 'Last Low' and some other concerns I explain in video - I don't consider these time projections as reliable for top placement. However, if Advance-Decline Line reverses and falls going into some of these dates - then there is a high chance that 'Time Symmetry' actually points to a bottom date and will be useful to find a buyable dip.

Considering that Rate T (post link) projects a Stock Market Lows in spring of 2017 and then again in summer, I think that there are opportunities ... for which cash will be needed.
I want to remind that T Theory is not a trading tool, but a 'range of options' that will have to be evaluated by other measures in real time.

VIDEO: T Theory Study 2012-2016

A 5 year study of T Theory - a method of analyzing general investment trends using time symmetry.
Based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry.

From "A 1997 Introduction to T Theory" by Terrence Laundry:

'The Law of Matched Trend Time' basically states that duration over which investors can obtain 'superior equity returns' will always be equal to the previous time period in which returns were subnormal. A simpler way to put it is to say: the market can only 'make strong run' as long as it previously 'rested'.

As a result of this study... we run out of T...

 ...unless...

VIDEO: Rate T Report. 2015 Study

Completed 2015 Rate T correctly forecast 2016 market lows, by providing multiple estimates over period of time when buyable dips are likely to appear in S&P500.

This is based on T-Theory concepts of Terry Laundry, who discovered these Rate T's back in 1970's (I think) and used this concept quite successfully for many years. Generally it states that a period of time it takes for interest Rates to fall from high to low is approximately equal to period of time from interest Rate low to important low in Stocks.
He acknowledged difficulties with accuracy of these projections since rates went into historic downtrend in 1980's and also during times of heavy intervention.

1st High to 1st Low in Rate = 1st Bottom in Stocks (in 2015)
Highest High to Panic Low in Rate = 1st Bottom in Stocks (in 2015)
Last High to Lowest Low in Rate = Final Lowest Low in Stocks (in 2016)

VIDEO: S&P500 Price Movement, Sectors and NYSE

In this video I discuss a progression of weekly SPY trend, based on interpretation of my Composite Score Indicator (CSI).
Sell Signal warning on a week of August 22, 2016, weak condition of S&P sectors and relative under-performance of NYSE composite index ($NYA). Also I talk about multi-year sideways grind, with bear market stuck in-between (yes, bear market - I'll explain next week), and illustrate how personal investors walked away from trading.

VIDEO: S&P500 Price Movement and Sectors

In this video I discuss a progression of weekly SPY trend, based on interpretation of my Composite score Indicator (CSI). Relative trend stages of the sectors can be seen in image below the video. I note a double sell signal in Industrials $XLI and explore possible scenarios.

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VIDEO: S&P500 Price Movement

In this video I analyze S&P500 Price Movement for week of August 8-12, 2016,  based on my Composite Score Indicator (CSI)

Internal Conflict

 Any man who can drive safely while kissing a pretty girl is simply not giving the kiss the attention it deserves.                                                                                                                                                                 -Albert Einstein

Ever since summer of 2014, I noticed a very disturbing tendency of my general list. Many stocks I follow started to underperform the market as a whole, and winners got smaller than losers at the same time. Basically, when I guess right - stock advances 10-20%, but when something falls - it collapses by 30-50% and fast. I've been fortunate to avoid disasters lately, but its getting harder to pick the spots.

Noticeable divergence is underperformance of NYA (NYSE Composite Index) versus other broad indexes, as NYA is still under the peaks made in July and September 2014, while S&P500 and Nasdaq already made new highs. I follow NYA closely, because its a most broad index of 'real' stocks due to NYSE listing requirements - price over $1, income from continuing operations, stringent reporting, etc. It would be beneficial to see NYA resuming its leadership role, since breaking of last years highs will also trigger a huge Inverse Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern, with target somewhere in 12000. Similar formation is also apparent in EMW (Wilshire 4500) and IWM (Small Caps), but S&P500 looks different.

I remain in owe of miscreants from McGraw Hill and the incredible results they achieved with S&P500 Index. SPX is sort of self-rebalancing large cap growth index, superior to anything out there so much so that active managers where unable to beat it for years. People commonly refer to it as 'market', but its an erroneous assumption. All stocks are 'the market', SPX is just a collection of 500 biggest and best stocks, weighted according to some magic formula and continuously changing composition. The effect of these 500 stocks is evident in difference between WLSH (Wilshire 5000 - all US equities index) and EMW (Wilshire 4500, or Wilshire5000 without S&P500). EMW has been leading since the beginning of this year, which is not to be taken lightly. All these indexes are capitalization weighted, therefore it would take a really big advance in smaller issues to overpower a lackluster performance of mega-caps. I think its an important development, and may lead to continuation of this bull market due to 'rising tide lifts all boats' phenomenon - the one that we have not seen lately.

I don't do market forecasts, nor I rely on predictions in making investment decisions. Index interpretation is even more confusing and most misleading of all, because of index nature - an approach based on avoidance of technical or fundamental analysis. On Friday, February 13, 2015, as most averages where making new all time highs, I decided to look at 'The Market' thru some simple Finviz scans.

Today, Finviz lists 7064 issues that trade in USA, including foreign and domestic stocks, ETF, leveraged and inverse instruments, bond funds and god knows what else. I wanted to see active, tradeable stocks only (ex-ETF's), price over $5, average volume over 300k, regardless of fundamentals. Scan turned up 2093 issues, or slightly less than 30%. This is what I found inside these 2 thousand stocks:
- On a day when broad market indexes where making new highs, only 185 stocks (8.8%) where at new 52 week high; only 368 (17.5%) where 0-3% below.
- 674 stocks (32.2%) are 20% or more below 52 week high; and 148 (7%) are 50% or more below.
- 69% are above 50 day moving average; 62.6% are above 200 day ma
- number of stocks near 52 week low is negligible 1-2%

These numbers are hardly bullish, make me very concerned and constitute a serious internal conflict, IMNSHO

Born under a bad sign
Been down since I began to crawl
If it wasn't for bad luck
You know, I wouldn't have no luck at all

-Albert King

Correct!

After all perturbations of March and April, and getting a brief reset in May due to sickness, I am enjoying a view from the top of rising Bull Wave.

I actually hit AUM low point in early May. Positions I was carrying  in April didn't respond well to earnings. I was stopped out of almost everything with small gains and losses. System 12 was a saving grace, performing much better than in any tests. Luck favors prepared. As I was Digging around (post-link) and reviewing old lists, new scans and my own sanity, I slowly put BCM account back on full margin after being sick in a Box (post-link). Right on time for a late May rip. I haven't made any new purchases in days, sold a couple of things along the way, and now just trailing stops. All positions are in profit, except PPP (-2%). Some met early targets, all have more higher targets ahead... just need to survive a shake-out...
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?geo,ppp,sea,fxi,rsx,dhi|B|P5,3,3|0

Last time I looked at SPX prospects was during Fishing Expedition (post-link) in March'14,  correctly analyzed but poorly executed attempt to pick a minor bottom. I wrote:

Fib target ... is 1898. My point-n-figure targets are 1974-1978, followed by 2115 (what?)... Lets first get to 1890, then we will see.

1897.28 happen right on a day of Bloodbath 1% of ATFH (post-link), all part of 50 Day Box (post-link).
I didn't pick the bottom. Fishing Expedition costed me a bit over 10%. Rotation out of prior market leaders, small caps and Bloodbath showed another 10% of losses. Helluva way to start a business, thou kinda typical for me. Every new endeavor of mine always had a rocky beginning.

I made some important changes while Sitting on a Fence (post-link) in late March, ordered myself to Charlie Mike (post-link) in early April, continued Digging (post-link) despite early setbacks, and now I see the fruits of my labor. Correct!

As SPX approaches my initial PF Targets of 1975ish, I astonishingly note that they been adjusted even higher, to well over 2000! In fact the closest target is 2023, followed by 2125ish and 2200 (what? what?!!). There are also Measured Move (MM) targets - one met, another one at 1975 again.

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Important observation is low volume on this rally. I heard and read several analysis of how this is a warning sign. True- 70's, 80's and even 90's bull advances where traditionally accompanied by higher volume, illustrating increasing interest and activity. Last 10 years show nothing of a kind. Up markets of late have been characterized by relatively low volume, diminishing every year. High volume days are mostly exhaustion and marks the top. What really happens is summer market started a week before Memorial Day. Volume and activity until 11-12ish, followed by mostly sideways on no volume at-all, and flat overnight. Very low VIX and plenty of shorts to squeeze in most hated bull market in history. How long it lasts? Until it doesn't.

ES expiration is less then 2 weeks away (on 20th). Its very similar to last one (here), in a way of Open Interest (OI) too high at over 3mil cars. Ones again shorts are caught overexposed and running out of time. Fortunately it doesn't matter to me, as I am fully invested and looking to take profits on trailing stops in BCM account. System 9 is a different story, as it holds more positions in diversified portfolio.

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There are no important news I am aware of.
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Solar activity is very low. Geomagnetic had been quiet for weeks (may be months), until lonely storm couple of days ago.
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I have a T running out in June, Bradley top date in July, MADI too high for its own good, Golden Indicator still pointing up and no Confidence (via CI) to speak of. I'd like to see this rally run its course and review internal indicators then. Wondering if there is any Astrological thingamabob sometimes soon... Is there such a thing as Bear Market, or is it just an old wife tales?.. Buckwheats...

What's Up

------------------Internals Update-----------------------
Surprisingly, internals don't offer much insight into presently potentially dangerous situation.
Over 70% of S&P500 stocks are still bullish and above 50dma. It doesn't tell the future, only present conditions.
MADI is still above 0, while Nasdaq A/D indicator is much weaker and already  spent some time below 0 in March. Confidence Indicators are just in a sideways noise. Golden Indicator is surprising - it was advancing strongly in second half of March, I am really curious at what it will do next. SPX under-performing the world and especially Emerging, but it doesn't last long in recent months.
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It strongly feels to me that market is falling apart, everything will get hit, leading to much-much lower levels on popular indexes. Small caps (via IWM) and Nasdaq stocks in general are weaker than large caps, represented by Dow and S&P, but I want to focus on S&P500 for several reasons.

I studied major averages going back over 100 years. There is no dependable set of rules that would enable a person to ride every zig and zag. On a top of that they keep changing the rules of how indexes composed and calculated. That cockamamie S&P500 index is calculated based on publicly available float, which is misleading number, and then there is a divisor (o, statistics). Historically index moves up and down 10 to 30 percent at a clip without rhyme or reason, and can go for over 20 years in a wide range without any noticeable progress or just rip endlessly higher for years. We seemed to be in a former up until last year. As I pointed out back in early 2013 (link): "Sure, we can learn from history, but not as much as you think."

There is an unusual divergence in performance of growth VUG vs value VTG stocks, over a recent couple of months. Value out-performance is uncommon, as growth stocks are market leaders most of the time. So much so that 90's crazy bull market was all growth, while value was killed and many good companies in their own mini-bear market, even with averages ripping higher.

Lets assume for a second that miscreants from McGraw Hill are actually doing a good job (for index that is) and that ,based on Dow Paradox (link), "The purposeful manipulation of index components is designed to produce positive outcome, thus creating an upward equity slope". Then it would be possible to find good, profitable, growing companies, that are also in up-trend, among S&P 500 index components. These type of stocks should be something similar to System12 components, as this is how a company becomes one of Mega Dozen (MD) - grow to become The Biggest. The bottom of the barrel should be exactly the opposite - a prime candidate for short before these lagging dullards are dropped from index (and especially after).

OTOH, I am looking for new emerging Theme, not based on my own opinion (which is usually correct, but badly timed), but on price action and fundamentals of present market leaders. The trick is to find a Theme that is emerging from years/months of basing, so I can 'buy low - sell high'; and at the same time the one that is already moving on daily/weekly, so I can 'buy high - sell higher'. This is an epitome of System9.

---------------------------In The News----------------------------
The biggest unreported news is a string of at-least 12 suicides of high level financial services executives around the globe. Tragic and not comical at-all, the story is custom made to fit any popular conspiracy theory. I wonder why nobody seems to step forward?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-05/abn-amro-ex-ceo-found-dead
JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Swiss Re, ABN Amro etc. Clean-up or damage control...he-he

The Map is Not the Territory

Following is from Wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Map%E2%80%93territory_relation:

Alfred Korzybski remarked that "the map is not the territory", encapsulating his view that an abstraction derived from something, or a reaction to it, is not the thing itself. Korzybski held that many people do confuse maps with territories, that is, confuse models of reality with reality itself. ...  individual people in fact do not in general have access to absolute knowledge of reality, but in fact only have access to a set of beliefs they have built up over time, about reality.

This is a very eloquent depiction of the reason why I stopped forecasting index trends.

Forecasting of market trends is a bad approach any way you slice it. It makes one to have an opinion, a bias, that has to be expressed  in terms of long or short position. Every next bar brings new information, supporting prediction or not, until some time in a future trader can look back and realize whether his forecast was right or wrong originally. I've been working this way for years, and this is the best explanation why my index trades have never been a steady source of profits. Quite the opposite.

This tuition, paid to "S&P500 Futures University", was not wasted (hopefully) and resulted in System11 - a simple and robust approach to short term index trading. On the other extreme end is System1 - a long term stock/bond index system, that never had a losing year, but also sidestepped most of 2013. System1 was designed in a way to avoid major bear market (and it did), but relies heavily on my own opinion and vague concept of "Enough", which needs to be discarded. I am in a process of modifying System1 rules. It will take awhile, as long term system testing takes a long time (no shit).

Financial speculation is a process of making an aggressive monetary bet, based on incomplete information, for uncertain period of time. The Technical Analysis of price chart can't tell the future. It could tell  where we have been, where we are now, and what may happen next (based on interpretation of conditional probability). Never 100%, not even close. 50/50 is the best I can wish for, yet it still requires forecasting, albeit to a lesser degree. A "SET-UP" is what investment community came up with, to fool themselves into thinking that they don't have a bias. A certain quantifiable set of conditions, that lead to recognizable outcome most of the time. Isn't this an 'opinion' again? What is it based upon? Squiggly-wiggly lines on price/time plot of some financial scam?
Give me a fucking break...

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 "The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios. The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market." [Soros]
 http://socialleverage50.com/2013/09/22/stanley-druckenmiller-greatest-moneymaking-machine-history/
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Shopping list:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?sea,kex,tk,nm,nmm,cmre,dsx,sb,dba,bal,nib,mon|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FSPHX,IBB,DVA,MHFI,BX,GEO,SCCO,DOW,CVV,FCSMF,adsk,ddd|B|P5,3,3
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http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eem,tur,fxi,pgj,hao,rsx,afk,nge|B|P5,3,3

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Positions:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HEMP,PHOT,MJNA,MDBX,AG,CEF,FNV,GDX,PPP,RGLD,SLV,SPPP|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CVV,MHFI,GEO,JJC,JJG,LNN,NM,SCCO,TK,TUR,VNM,FXI|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AMLP,XLU,FIUIX,LYSDY,NIB,BAL,TAN,SCTY,ccj|B|P5,3,3
UPDATE 2/14/2014
As soon as finished taking stops on many common stocks, I saw many new set-ups. With broad rally accommodating, I am now 70%+ invested and want more on some kind of reaction.
1800SPX has to hold for few days. then we will see...
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As i was writing this musing, I realized that there is a philosophical problem with what I do, and got stuck. So I published it at Molecool's site, hoping that some replies will get me 'unstuck'. Below are some excerpts of  discussion we had here: http://evilspeculator.com/?p=40387#disqus_thread