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Thursday, February 21, 2013

Battle of 1510 /ES Continues

1510 /ES presented itself as a resistance in a beginning of February and I noticed that this is where battle lines are drawn here (link).
Well-well, what do you know, this is really where they had the stops. ES had to go past 1510 and this morning System 10 kicked in. I'm using a lighter version, not futures, but SSO. So far so good.

Got step 1 of VIX buy signal.

My A/D indicator closed -470, and that is at-least short term bottom. It can come down some more, but i think most of damage is over.

During the day I surveyed a bunch of internets. Remember how everybody where waiting for a dip to buy? Well, the dip is here, and nobody is buying.  People are bearish as shit, talking about Mark Fabers' down 20%, Tom Demarks' 9-13's.   Nobody is talking about Bergamot's 1600+
Good, that is just how I like it.

          What if I'm wrong? What if 1510 can not be taken over by bulls?
          It's possible.
But my thinking is this: to have a big selloff, the beginning of Bear Market we need broken support, or some kind of formation (double top or something), or moving average cross, or PF bear price objective, or blow-off on large volume... you get my gist. I see bearish engulfing / maribozu candles all over the place, but they have lousy reliability.  So far all I have is Canadian Time magazine cover and  2 of my friends who just found out that there is a Bull Market going on. No joke - people find out about this bull run only a week or two ago. Now they are thinking : "What to invest in?"

I figure we have until tax-day, the LATEST!
I am being very serious now - this bull run is on its last legs, but last leg is always explosive, so...
I am 80%+ invested, long stocks and grains, short bonds and oil until further instructions.

 I'm wondering what industry group will rally the most off this low? Homebuilders?
MJNA added a little at 0.25, just like planned here (link)

More on this later.

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