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Saturday, February 2, 2013

iBergamot Tea

 "There are many health benefits from the oil of bergamot. It is known
for treating fevers, intestinal worms and controlling anxiety. It is
also notable that bergamot is a disinfectant and an anti-depressant."
       iBergamot takes the goodness of a small yellow fruit into digital fields of 21st Century.
Thru rigorous genetic engineering and regiment of contrast showers, i-Bergamot treats gambling fever, computer worms, over-trading anxiety and depression caused by disregarding stop-losses.
      More tea Vicar

      Are these markets different than before? Is it harder to make money on Wall Street, for a small individual investor that is? Do I really have a chance to succeed and make a living from markets?

Lets see:

     It seems that markets go through these rotten 20-year periods, followed by multi-year bull markets, as far back as I can see. All this was happening without  machines/bots that are being blamed for volatility and manipulation of 2000's.

       So market gets out of early 1900's, runs hot, crashes in 1929, recovers during WWII, goes sideways for few years and only then great bull market of 1950's begins. "Nifty Fifty was easy", Young Buck told me. Really? There wasn't a person alive, who seen or traded bull market like this.

      50 years of  history, 50 years of sheer fuckery (including crash and depression), 50 years of charts and trading - they all mean nothing in 1950-1960 period. Cus it was different,  nothing in preceding years prepare or indicated an onset of Nifty Fifty, and I doubt that "people" realized that in time to make money. Then, it wasn't easy sailing either - 10%+ corrections of 1949, 1950, 1953 and picture perfect top of 1956-1958 surely wiped out numerous "active traders on margin".

       Following all that You become smart, get with the program - only to get fucked again in 60-70's. Nicolas Darvas has a pretty good account of this period in his books. Sure, we can learn from history, but not as much as you think.

Chart of 1940-1960 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19401960.html

         Young Buck is still too young to realize that there is never anything easy in markets, because markets don't change - they just go through periods that cannot be forecasted.

UPDATE June 2013:
           Apparently "Nifty-Fifty" is mostly referred to period in early 1970's, when a bunch of companies where sporting a P/E ratio of  about 50, and they were "new" market leaders destined for ever-expanding price levels.
I love history - everything is so plainly understood ... lol. 
Methinks, lesson is the same.

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