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Thursday, August 29, 2013

Positions and Watch List

8/30 - FB 41.97. Full pos. I think it will take out all time high (made on day of IPO), or fall apart right here and now.
9/3 - TBT 78.52. Re-entering just as planned. I've been riding this trend since 5/16. Last time I took profit on 8/23 at 80.40. Every trade in "Short US Treasuries" theme was profitable this year. This is what Bonds bear market does.

9/4 - SSYS 106.70. Taking small profit on this half pos trade. I don't like intraday action, plus I didn't buy it well. Will watch and may re-enter
9/4 - SIL 15.37. half pos size of silver miners. Now I have full pos on.

9/1 - WFC (from System12)
9/4 - TSCO

S&P Sectors+



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Old Timers, gotta love 'em.
Moe Ansari talks to  Pamela Aden about everything

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Big Data and Cloud

Why am I so scared? A reflection of social mood or contrarian stance?
The weakest link - information, communication, cell phone and internet. There are redundancies, protection and back-up, but will it be enough? A small earthquake (about a year or two ago) - and everybody was lost, no phone, no plan... one can steal a City-Hall and nobody will notice until sometime later.

They think a stop-loss order will work. If you can put it in, if broker will receive it, if market functions properly and with liquidity enough to accommodate... Many if's

I hear a lot of stories about hackers and internet attacks. I hear stories about Big Data mining and spying. I hear that Cloud Computing will change the way we live and work on internet. I am asking a lot of question, I am asking computer programmers and users, I read, I research. I have NOT heard a meaningful and coherent explanation about how all this shit really works together. If the only people who should know, really don't - what about the rest of us?

There is a ISE Cloud Computing Index Fund - SKYY - its top 10 holdings (almost a half of assets) change quite a bit from month to month, plus they rebalance semi-annually. Expense ratio is 0.6%. Started trading in Summer 2011, it recently broke all time highs with strong Volume Profile (VP).

Cyber Security

----------UPDATE 2/16/2014------------------
            UPDATE UPDATE 4/9/2014
Less than 2 months later all Fly's picks from above look pretty pump-n-dumpish...

..............................................In the News.............................................
Less than 2 weeks after this post Nasdaq main computer broke down for 3 hours. As soon as it came back, NYSE computer froze. The following day Eurex Exchange broke down for over an hour. "Technical issues" are the reason. Yea, no shit. Trading was disrupted for some securities, and I actually had some of them, and I couldn't put the sell-stop order in. All this when volume was very low and many are still on summer vacation, plus Sell Rosh Hashanna on September 5. So the question from above post: "If you can put your stop order in?.. The answer is : NO!

Other than that, its all Sirya. We are not going in without UN resolution, which Russia and China promised to veto, except they walked out from meeting where voting was suppose to happen. Politics - show business for ugly people.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

System 12 and more

7/24  - COW 26.97 Half pos size. Livestock etn to continue agricultural theme (which is currently is atleast in doubt). After a triple-bottom in spring it break-out over 26.50 and 50dma. Buying half on first reaction, to see if it can hold 50dma and go over declining 200dma.
8/8 - PPP 4.73 Adding new position to Gold Miners portfolio. Good relative strength. 1/4 pos size.
8/9 - RGLD 54.78 Adding half pos, now i have a full pos on.
8/9 - TWM 15.45 Double short Russell2000 (IWM)
8/13 - YELP 51.70 Incredibly strong mo-mo chart. There is something going on. Tight stop.
After stop out on 8/15 at 48.02, I re-entered on 8/21 at 50.24
8/19 - SSYS 102.10 Half pos. Starting one more 3D printer company on first reaction after 52week high. Really not a good entry point.
8/20 - TSCO 120.27. Re-entering trade after stop-out at lows on 8/15. Now I have to chase, and I still can't make up my mind if its a strong stock or not. Its one of last remnants of agricultural theme, currently very much in doubt.
8/21 - KEX 84.44 Biggest shipper of all in strong uptrend. Buying dip. If fails there are few levels of support to re-enter in 75-80 area. UPDATE: Stop out on 8/30 at 81.22.
8/23 - UCO 36.97 Long oil. Price pattern only, I don't care about Syria. PFTargets for WTIC 114, 128-129
8/23 - GDX 30.30 Buying another half pos size
8/28 - SRS 23.35 Shorting Real Estate, IYR is proxy.

7/26 - TBT 74.58 Selling last half position bought on 5/17 for 12+% gain. Now I have a 1 full pos, bought on 7/10.
8/1 - CCJ 19.72 on stop.  Looking to pick a bottom of that 22-23 on top and 16.50-17.50 on bottom box.
On 8/8 I re-entered at 19.63, thinking that i got shaken out for no reason at-all, but was stopped out again on 8/19 at 19.49 for a small loss.
8/13 - FB 37.12. Take profit on half pos.
8/14 - SCTY 36.23. After ER on 8/5 this is completely fell apart, even with solars (via TAN) strong. Close this half position (bought on 6/28) for 5% loss. SCTY made me alot of money this year, let it cool a bit.
8/15 - TSCO 116.97 Stop out at the lows. Will re-enter.
8/15 - TK 38.04 Weak shipper. Taking 5% loss.
8/20 - VNM 18.23 Exit this half pos size trade at almost 7% loss. Emerging markets are bust.
8/20 - TWM 16.12 Exit position bought on 8/9 for small (less than 5%) gain. Shorting R2K is hard.
8/23 - TBT 80.40 Exit full pos for 5% gain. Looking for re-entry.
8/23 - SDS 37.78 Exit position from 5/16 for 3% loss, although SPX is at almost same level. Thats leveraged etf decay, plus I am shorting the Bull Market.
8/28 - NM 6.24 Half size out. Taking profits on rip. PFT 7 and 7.50 remains.
8/28 - EWJ 11.11. Small loss. I am confused about Japan, yen, and difference between $NIKK and EWJ.
8/29 - UCO 38.73 Taking quick 4% profit on oil. Looking for re-entry.

7/25 - FNV
7/31 - TK
8/29 - FNV

Positions  and watch list:

System 12 Update

Earnings season is over and it did alot of damage. Many Mega Dozen (MD) and SD stocks are under 50/200 day MA's and I am looking  to buy if/when they recover. Failure here would be catastrophic for markets worldwide!

This is MD as of 8/16/2013.
Of note - AAPL took top spot  for first time since mid-2012. RDS is replaced by CHL, they are very close together, but RDS is recently disqualified.  XOM took a hit under 200 and 50ma.
XOM, GOOG, MSFT, WMT, CVX, RDS are all under 50dma, and BRK is right on it.

This is SD:
RDS, PTR, IBM, T, BHP are disqualified.  JPM, PFE, HBC, NVS, KO are under or at 50dma.  BBL and BHP is the same company, with BBL just a bit over 200dma. Second Dozen is basically poop.
MD+ 8/16/2013
BTFT positions: (3 available slots)
XOM, GOOG, CVX  - liquidate or by-pass. These from MD.

Available - AAPL, PG, CHL, HBC(from SD)

S12T has XOM (blown all stops and out of PP) and WFC. Looking to add all available and also BRK, GE, JNJ.