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Thursday, November 8, 2012

Bloody bottom ?

I Bergamot
/ES. Margin liquidation again.  Open interest at 3052k (up by 100k in 2 days - boys getting short) and probably grown today. Get your bear hats on. Bulls need a miracle.
PS. Closing at the lows is kinda bullish. Capitulation? DX not rising, long bond got excited only after auction etc...

Saturday, November 3, 2012

"What separates the men from the boys" and more from Lee Cooperman

Lee Cooperman, founder of hedge fund firm Omega Advisors,  gave a presentation in September 2012 entitled, "Observations regarding: life, hedge funds, the investment outlook" at Roger Williams University.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/10/lee-cooperman-on-hedge-funds-investment.html



Amazing. This guy is running System 9. Ha, and I thought I invented something - he has been doing it for years. 6.6 bil under management.
If you produce the returns, you'll grow.  What separates the men from the boys is how you do during periods of adversity

- 'Obsession': the word he uses to describe his approach to investing

- The harder he works, the luckier he got.  To be successful, you have to make sacrifices. 
"It doesn't matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle; when the sun comes up you'd better be running."

On Life

- Four observations: 1. there's nothing more important than family,
 



Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Liquidation. PART 1 -- THE END.

9:20am
Exchanges expecting limited liquidity. That's bad for me. I was thinking to just dump everything at open, but decided to be professional about it and sell carefully to get the best prices of the day. Great earnings from TTWO - up 7% in premarket. I started to buy game stocks months ago ( in this post), they will go up into X-Mas IMNSHO
9:55am
Tight stops set for all positions. Now i just trail them up. Everything will be sold before close. I am killing my creation. "Angry" doesn't even begins to describe it.
1pm
Only about 20% left. My body is majorly giving up. Popping painkillers. Mentally I'm FUBAR. Obviously, trading of System 10 or anything else is not allowed.
3:50pm
All out. Few hundred better than opening total.
System 9 is a workable system, but successful or not - that i don't know.

iBERGAMOT  PART 1 -- THE END

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?che,ea,gme,ttwo,mat,geo,hcn,mr,lysdy,mcp,ree,tas|B

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?calvf,epz.v,sil,kors,lsi,tayc|B

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xlu,hyg,ibb,iyr,kre,xlf,eem,moo,xhb,xrt|B




 

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Day before Liquidation

The most disturbing thing in this situation is : I Will Never Find Out how it ENDS !
I'm not afraid of fuck-up. I  take a chance, I  push and try. Fail and start again. I  make all new mistakes and try not to repeat old ones. I go for it until Fat Lady.
This is totally different. My chance is taken away. My work has no use. My obligations are not fulfilled, even worst - my best chance to fulfill these obligations is no longer an option.
All this is happening just as i am going full speed, working maximum hours with outmost dedication. My research shows a high amount of promising situations. Wide variety of great setups is presented. This type of situation happens couple of times a year at most. In the past, I only made aware of it when it's too late. Now I'm in it as it unfolds, already positioned in best and strongest areas, also in Rare Earths and PM. Invested by over 100% and fully prepared to go up to 250%. My risk management and position sizing makes it possible with less then 10% risk at this moment in time. This is situation for which Flagship account was open, this is what it meant for. A combination of key leading ETF's with "kicker" individual stocks with futures hedge when necessary. Beautiful, powerful, diversified and low risk - my creation. I have no other account set up for that.
  A modest 20% rally on 250% invested account is 50% profit. This is how it's done; This is what I'm talking about; Nobody listens. Crickets. Fuck.

Monday, October 29, 2012

iBergamot. Part 2.

 I'm Working on It.
Goes without saying, this campaign is not over. It started suddenly during December 2011, and went  with minor setback in May. Even that did't cost me too much. Now for sure, I'm going with direction of bull market. This dip  right now - I was buying, heavily into leading strongest stocks.
That is not a plan anymore.
With main account gone, so are my plans for larger operation. Not that am going to quit. O, no! Not until the Fat Lady. It's just that moves I planned out are no longer available. Need new plan.
In the mean time, I still have money to run. I'm responcible for it, and its no less important than before.
Plus, I still have System 10 and it's "on" right now. Except for hurricane that closed the market. I'm just waiting.



"Why 90% of Traders Lose" by Nadeem Walayat

Doesn't apply to my present situation, but a great read from Nadeem Walayat about 1987 crash, TA, pundits and economists and all.
 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37116.html
"In my opinion, a high 90% of traders are destined to lose because they are in fact learning from / listening to the 90% of losing traders that preceded them, who following wipe out in the markets have gone on to focus on writing about market price action and methodology with an even greater concentration observed to occur in the mainstream press as account busted traders / investors turn failure to trade into full time media careers and thus perpetuate a continuous cycle of failing traders guiding new traders towards similar failure. "
Thanks Nadeem

Sunday, October 28, 2012

iBergamot Lost

And just like this, I lose. My biggest Flagship account puled money yesterday. Everything will be sold on Monday before close. He needs money. I promised that portfolio will be liquid and money are available at any time. He understood this is not one time kind of a deal, that money grows over time, thru ups and downs. But reality is not often what I perceive or prepared for. My biggest fear was not my losses - I had my fair share; always recovered and made more. I was afraid that IB will go under and take my account with it. Well...
Now I am like a cab driver whose Ford Crown Vic is taken away, and he is given Smart instead. He can drive around, but making money as cab driver... It's kinda not an option anymore.
And what the Fuck am I suppose to do with all my research, stock selection, preparation, strategy etc. You know...
Sad

Saturday, October 27, 2012

In a Middle of Shit-Storm. El Macho


Your date has gone home
Now you're left on your own sweet own
Your tough-talkin' friend
Split on you in the bitter end
And you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry

They say you're a star
That's what the boys all say you are
I don't see much TV
So you don't mean shit to me
But you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry

They got a name for people like you
Yeh they do
And they got a name for people like me too
El Macho, El Macho

Now they want you to sing
Don't get shy or anything
The boys are all here
Gonna buy you another beer
'Cos you look like a fine thing Jerry
Yeh you look like a fine thing Jerry
El Macho, El Macho

Listen: Marc Faber; Jeremy Rifkin

Long interview with Marc Faber. Talks about everything



 Jeremy Rifkin, 'The Third Industrial Revolution' "How lateral power is transforming energy, the economy, and the world."
According to Rifkin, industrial revolutions occur when new energy regimes emerge and new communications systems enable them to become operational.  We are now entering a  third industrial revolution, one which combines renewable energy and internet technology to transform the power grid.
That's what I'm looking for


Friday, October 26, 2012

Possible T, just need the bottom

  • I Bergamot
     /ES. 1418 is still important.
    Just in case, there is a traditional A/D T. Just need a double bottom for centerpost.
    DG ! Look it up. You are a Tee expert
  • Darth_Gerb, Incorrigible Iconoclast
  • EDIT: yes, very good.
    for the illiterate, the descending highs indicate a 'cash build up' period.
    a decline to a major low (NYMO) would indicate an end of that period, and a start of a rally, such as Fearless is alluding to. The rally would be of equal measure as the descending build-up period. The blue rectangle of 2010/2011 is a good example.
    -Gerb


Monday, October 22, 2012

Positions. Last week's talks.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?che,ea,geo,gme,gway,hcn,kbh,kors,mcp,ree,tas,mr|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?nov,tayc,ttwo,calvf,epz.v|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HYG,IBB,IYR,KRE,MOO,XLU,XRT,XHB,TBT,XLF,LYSDY,UGA|B|P5,3,3

UGA is a short.
No TBT now. Looking to enter. May short TMF.
HCN, MCP, NOV, TAYC are 1/2pos. Add or drop.

Oct 15:
I surely hope that Fearless is right, and this is up and up from here.  As for put/call ratio, I don't see it that clear on expiration week. I remember my option trading years. This is a time when they loose sleep and run out of nail to chew. Just imagine you position is about to go to option heaven. Puff... you lose. I say - let them kill each other off - the air will be much clearer next Monday.
Meanwhile, at "major averages ranch", IWM is sucking brick, QQQ has plenty of overhead resistance to fight and SPX is back at the point where it's 50 points up or down from here. Truly in a market of stocks - you need to pick your spots. KORS + TIF = happy. KRE + YELP = sad.
I'm really looking at Dollar, famously showing "suicidal tendencies" (plagiarizes from Mole). If that thing breaks down from 79/80 box, where its been for past 20 days... One can have a dream. Right?
Back to your regularly scheduled chop-fest
 Oct 19:   http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31381
Daaam, I'm missing all fun. totally swamped at office with 2 (two!) surprise audits. These people surely want me to quit this damn job.
Open interest on ES stands at whooping 3017000. I view high open interest as indicator of too many shorts in the market. Last time it was over 3mil was in end of August, close to contract expiry. Those shorts got squeezed, today's shorts will get murdered. I'm not saying that this thing will turn today, but I will not short it for any more than few hours ( and probably not at all)
Please, keep in mind that I keep my stocks for weeks-to-months.
 Bollinger on VIX is so narrow, it may get step 1 within days. Or even today. Sell-sell-sell! Come to papa!
 Ahem, excuse me, But  Nasdaq A/D hit 3rd lowest reading in 6 months. -1650. The only two lower readings where near bottoms on June 1 and july 23.
what the hell is going on? Somebody bombed us?

  • I Bergamot                      http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31398
    Fine. Them peoples are in pain and selling everything. I help them, poor souls, and bought some. Interestingly, 30yr bond doesn't look giddy at all. On a down day like today I was expecting it it be up much more.
    So my question is this. If money go out from stocks and PM - where are they going?
  • volar, futures trader
     shocked here too mate. no panic volume in equities at the moment.
    Bottom is nas and NYSE volume, middle emini volume
    no panic selling yet- but really only thing green on my screen is spreads, and corn/wheat, natty.
    http://content.screencast.com/..

    I Bergamot
     That I understand. But stock traders usually don't cross over to these commodities. I, for one, cannot handle them.

    volar, futures trader
     my point. no volume- no real transfer. commods (obviously not high beta oil, copper, gold) are up- just a sign of strength for those markets

    I Bergamot
    Are you saying they are scaring the children?

    volar, futures trader
     i dunno- just saying i like to buy when others are in utter panic- this clearly not it today


    Not much short covering into close. I demand more blood! Pain, suffering and broken support . I am going to hate every second of this weekend.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

I Have Nothing to Lose but My Chains. Forward!

Fuck Lenin. That degenerate syphilitic screwed up big time, and he knew it too. Its easy to do shit, when you got unlimited German money to back you up.
Ends badly though. Greeks apparently don't know that.
Fuck them too, I got my money to worry about.
I am moving ahead. What I do is working. This is hardest and longest step of my life.
I'm crossing that 110th street and there is no turning back.
Forward !



Position changes

developing...

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Stops getting hit. Sukkot is over.


Stopped out :
CHK (short)
MD
STMP - re-buy possible
TSLA
I'm really tired of TSLA. Elon Musk or not - this stock has taken me for a ride 3 times, with only losses to show for it. I'm sure it has a great future ahead. i have to wait and see.

Jewish holidays are over and I'm all tingling with anticipation...lol

Confidence indicator still does not show any confidence, and Golden Indicator has negative divergence. Both can last awhile , but not good regardless.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Market is War. Strike Back and The Heavy.

I eat what I kill.
Market is war - it doesn't wait for moment when I have time, or feel good, or in the mood to play.
Enemy will strike at every opportunity.
Likewise, there is an easy pray. I take it every time I see it. I'm always looking for it. Everyday.
I have a choice. I can be a predator or the pray. Guess who wins?




Monday, October 1, 2012

Listen: Marc Faber and more

Nina Xiang of China Money Podcast, guest Fritz Demopoulos, founder of Queen's Road Capital, shares his thoughts on China's Internet sector and entrepreneurship.
http://www.chinamoneypodcast.com/2012/09/24/fritz-demopoulos-i-back-committed-first-mover-start-ups/
 China is different because with a small amount of capital, you can survive for a long time. You give 20 companies a couple of million dollars a piece, they are going to last for five or six years even if those models haven't been successful. I'm not sure if that's the right way to look at it. If failure means going bankrupt, not many companies go bankrupt because you can last for a long time in creative ways in China.

Marc Faber. As usually - equities, cash, PM, corp bonds, real estate.
 FNN AU Marc Faber 'Optimistic Prediction 4 Central Bankers Fate





http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/09/ray-dalio-in-depth-interview-on-myriad.html


September 2012

developing...

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Sld : XCO, ROST. __ Bot: LYSDY

Sld:
XCO on stop. No re-entry for now. Resistance at 7.50-8 is too strong.
ROST weak lately, lagging retailers. Re-entry possible. Wait.
(speaking of retailers XRT is much weaker than RTH, but RTH has no volume. Need to look what is inside of RTH)

Bot:
LYSDY.  1/3pos and looking for any BTFD. I had a full position closed on 5/17/12 at the same price. Took a loss of $1200 !
They finally got TOL approval. Jump 50% on news. This is a much needed good news for whole Rare Earths sector. Watching MCP, AVL, TAS.
Liquidating DCHAF for a couple of weeks now. Merger is announced with some other company, I have no interest in. That "other company" is investing in bunch of gold start-ups and looks like losing money on it. Methinks they going to use Dacha cash flow to cover these loses. I will be all out soon.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?EXPE,HCN,VSI,CHE,MED,AVL,CP,rost,xco,yelp,fb

August

developing...

Friday, August 31, 2012

I am really in this business for Money.


Positions. 110% invested.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GDX,HYG,IBB,IYR,KRE,MOO,SLV,XLU,XRT,XHB,TBT
TBT 1/2
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CCJ,FNV,GRA,MANH,NOV,ROST,SBH,TSLA,TTWO,EA,FB,xco
TTWO, EA, XCO, CCJ all 1/2 - drop/or/add

Going into "The Hole" i am $110% in all long. Tried to reduce portfolio size, but every time I sell something - there is bunch of stocks to buy.
This is a maximum amount of positions. For sure, its hard to keep an eye even on that many. So much so, that I can't keep up with this journal. That's very bad. Must bring the records up to date, ASAP.

Closed positions: (All still on watch list)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?geo,rgld,qlti,vsi,xle


PF points to 1377SPX at about 50dma. This is the only one down target I see. All others point up to 1450 and more up. That aside, I can't say its all up and up from here. Just in case I have my stops all figured out, I'll take them and that's that. From here - a little push lower and we are going to test spring lows.

Yesterday I had a panic attack during the day. The last one I had was a year ago. Now, there was no specific reason for it. Unlike summer 2011, this year is  good to me. Account is pretty much at year's high. Summer of last year we where going into bear market, but somehow got turned up. Right now we seem to start a 3 to 6 month slow-moving, low-volatility bull market, but it's not confirmed yet. New highs on RUT (via IWM) and Bob's your uncle.

All the pressure build up for Jackson Hole, even tho I watch very little news nowadays, is badly affecting me and probably countless others. It's sick - how much power one man has over markets worldwide. I can't even guess what he will say and how markets will react to QE-or not-QE. In fact I will not be surprised if he says the same thing in 22 different ways, and market will draw a blank. Most importantly, I must avoid all this wrong-footed way of thinking, disregard the news and just look at charts. Its all there.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Watch lists

Silver. Add GDXJ on first reaction. SLW or AG or both.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,PSLV,SLW,PAAS,CDE,AG,HL,SSRI,SVM,EXK,MVG,GPL|B|P5,3,3

Agriculture. I have MOO. Watching MON. Not sure of this list, need to check fundies.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?moo,MON,POT,MOS,SQM,LNN,BG,VMI,AGU,RNF,AVD,IPI

Games. TTWO makes most bad-ass games. Watching GME, EA, TTWO, ATVI.  Also MGAM
sne, ttwo, gluu have no E.  GME pays 5.5%div.  GME 37%sh (14SR!). GLUU - 22%sh; TTWO - 17%sh.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GME,EA,ATVI,IGT,TTWO,game,gluu,ntdoy,sne,pwrd,ntes,cyou

Marketing Services. Mobile advertisement
Everybody talking about MM(has no E). Huge short interest on VCI (28%), CTCT (24%), VELT (29%).
YELP si is 51%, but i think its wrong float numbers.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?goog,fb,p,yelp,cco,mm,vci,velt,arb,ncmi,ctct,hhs,mdca

Assorted watch list. Long and short
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?LNG,DDD,GME,SD,IDTI,CRUS,MD,ARII,SHLD,ALGN,HCN,mgam

Read: Devil-Degenerate is not alone.

Devil-Degenerate Gambler has been gone for months. I know all too well, he is just around the corner . Waiting. I know as soon as I drop the guard he will piss away profits, buy a bunch of pink sheets and shit into my Ikea pleather chair. I keep a watchful eye and more... he is not alone:
Meet the Evil Trader
http://www.roguetraderette.com/2012/08/23/my-top-10-favourite-self-destructive-trading-thoughts/
Thanks, Jess

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Read: Moon phases --- I'm not crazy!

Sheer Lunacy staring at the Heavens


http://www.markettiming.nl/img/image/file/RBS_MoonTrading13Jun10.pdf



The proposed trading strategy can be summarized as follows: buy an index on
the new moon (if this is a non-trading day, buy on the next trading day), hold till
the full moon (usually 14-15 days), sell the index on the full moon (similarly, if
non-trading day, sell on the next trading day), repeat the investment of the
overall amount on the next moon cycle (usually in 14-16 days), enjoy your profits!
S&P500 Data since 1928. £1,000 invested in 1928 would be £63,894 today but by buying on the New Moon and selling on the Full Moon it would return £1,502,689

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

BOT: TBT._____SLD: 1/2 GEO.___Watch list

 Bot: TBT @ 15.83.    I had it before, but sold on 5/17/12 @ 16.70(with large loss)
Sld:  1/2 of GEO @ 25.70.  Watching 25 area for further instructions.

 SBH (that I sold yest.) is a possible re-buy.

Consumer mega-stocks
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IYC,WMT,DIS,AMZN,HD,CMCSA,EBAY,COST,TWX,NWSA,TGT,TJX

Chemical  , also POL
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CEX,FSCHX,DOW,LYB,PPG,TPCG,FTK,FUL,EMN,CHMT,MEOH,gra

SLD: NOV , SBH

Sold on Monday, Aug 13:
           NOV on stop 76.15. Looks a bit stretched. Possible re-buy.
            SBH on stop  26.50. Closed the gap from mid-June and looks to be turning down.
Both stops are too close. I made this mistake before

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Listen : Alexander Elder in Russian

Wow, Im impressed. Read one of his books long time ago.
This guy is even better in-person than I expected.
Thanks, Sasha.





Thursday, August 9, 2012

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Read: Information Diet

"Program your mind or someone else is going to do it for you ;-)."
Molecool of EvilSpeculator.com
Thanks, mate.

Information Diet

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=29347

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

SLD: DDD, DLX, TSLA

Sold DDD at 35.50 on huge drop, that got reversed almost immediately. dont want to touch it .

Sold TSLA on stop 27.05 (filled at 27?). Where is liquidity, when I need it? Will buy it again, as soon as it stops falling.

Sold DLX before close at 27.64. Bearish engulfing.

There will be no QE3, no money. no, no, no...

Friday, July 27, 2012

Short Squezze ?

Props to Molecool of http://evilspeculator.com and Fearless

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=29987


Trading a Short Squeeze:


How to scan/enter a long in anticipation of a short squeeze:
  • Look for stocks that have high short interest, or a days to cover ratio greater than 10 for not well established companies. The number is 5 or greater for established (financially proven) companies.
  • Look for stocks whose short interests build up while prices stagnate and lurks just under resistance.
  • Look for earnings release dates and match that to the short interest as earnings will be used as an excuse to squeeze.
  • The instrument is trading above the 20 day SMA on a slightly above average volume prior to the event.
  • If the instrument trades below the 20 day SMA prior to the event, but the volume is slightly higher than the average daily volume, you want to see the price trending higher into the event and above the daily acceleration line.
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=29696

Bollinger band method is based on three fundamental principles:
  1. Once an instrument reaches the Bollinger band, it has the potential to push the band limit given the right trending conditions;
  2. Once an instrument starts pushing the band, the trend may be strong enough to cause a profitable squeeze quickly or a sizeable gain over time; and
  3. Should the instrument’s price becomes embedded in the Bollinger band, stop looking for reversals and let the market forces slaughter players on the other side of your trade for you.
 And than this:
          I Bergamot:
I posted this question for Fearless in a previous thread. Trying to get an concept of short squeeze thru my thick skull, spent two nights on scanning for stocks that fit Fearless criteria, but still... you know ...not sure.
Maybe Mole or Skynard or somebody can help to check my reasoning. Any comments are welcome. Thanks
"Still trying to work out picture and user name. But I have an urgent question re "squeeze candidates".
HOTT
8.7 short ratio, within spitting distance from 52week and 3year high, right
between 20 and 50 ma. Earnings on Aug 15. PF target 14 (almost 50% up from here).
Than I look at VALE and don't see anything of a kind.
Respect your opinion alot and would appreciate a reply. Thanks"
Mole: 
Don't over complicate it, mate. The simple process of a short squeeze is based on the expectations of traders who think that it could not possibly push any higher. But often it can - for instance if an important resistance cluster gets taken out (overnight or via a headline jump) and the resulting pain starts a snowball effect.
I used to be a sub at shortsqueeze.com but did not find much edge in their subscriber rankings. But their free service is of value, which is why I don't have a problem mentioning it here.
BTW for a good in depth treatment on what drives a short squeeze point your browser here:
http://shortsqueeze.com/short_...
 Fearless:

Remember I mentioned that you do not know what price is the right price to sell a squeeze candidate? With a stock close to its 52 week high, it can easily squeeze higher, but you'll need the upper Bollinger band and the 5 and 20 SMA as your guide and stops. With a beat down stock like VALE, you KNOW the retrace target(s) and can more safely set limit sell orders.
Also with financially sound companies, you may buy and hold near bottom prices if it's so beat down like VALE. You see, ALL major bottoms are immediately followed by strong short squeezes. With VALE, there is an opportunity to buy and hold this one for longer term trend trades and earn its dividends in the mean time. Hopefully this helps.

Great Story

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/07/25/nine-financiers/


Nine Financiers

Legend has it that in 1923, a meeting of America's most powerful men took place at the Edgewater Beach Hotel in Chicago.  Attending the meeting were the following nine financiers and power brokers:
the president of America’s largest steel company,
the president of America’s largest utility company,
the president of America’s largest gas company,
the president of the New York Stock Exchange,
the president of the Bank of International Settlements,
the nation’s greatest wheat speculator,
the nation’s greatest bear and speculator on Wall Street,
the head of the world’s greatest monopoly
a member of President Harding’s cabinet.
It was said to have been both a celebration of their success as well as an opportunity to plan their future exploits and dominance.  These were the captains of their respective industries and some of the most successful businessmen of the era.
But how did things turn out for these distinguished gentlemen?  Within 25 years, all of these great men had met a horrific end to their careers or their lives:
The president of the largest steel company,Charles Schwab, died a bankrupt man; the president of the largest utility company, Samuel Insull, died penniless; the president of the largest gas company, Howard Hobson, suffered a mental breakdown, ending up in an insane asylum; the president of the New York Stock Exchange, Richard Whitney, had just been released from prison; the bank president, Leon Fraser, had taken his own life; the wheat speculator, Arthur Cutten, died penniless; the head of the world’s greatest monopoly, Ivar Krueger the "match king", also had taken his life; and the member of President Harding’s cabinet, Albert Fall, had just been given a pardon from prison so that he could die at home.
And as for the Wall Street Bear, Jesse Lauriston Livermore, famous speculator in the stock and commodities markets, his end is perhaps the most tragic of all.  A week after Thanksgiving in 1940, Jesse walked into the Sherry-Netherland Hotel in New York, had two drinks at the bar while scribbling something in his notebook, then proceeded to the cloak room where he sat on a stool and shot himself in the head.  He was 62 and left behind $5 million, down from the $100 million fortune he had amassed just ten years earlier.
And the note he had scribbled?
“My dear Nina: Can’t help it. Things have been bad with me. I am tired of fighting. Can’t carry on any longer. This is the only way out. I am unworthy of your love. I am a failure. I am truly sorry, but this is the only way out for me. Love Laurie”

There are three major lessons we can take from this parable:
1.  Those who are on top now are not certain to finish in that position and are not guaranteed everlasting success or happiness.
2.  Be careful whom you choose to idolize.
3.  The life of a professional speculator is an unpleasant one, filled with highs and lows but ultimately unsatisfying and, in all probability, mentally ruinous.  Look no further than the example of history's greatest speculator for proof of this.

Friday, June 22, 2012

I don't like this.

I don't like this price action at all.
Any weakness in IBB , DOW - and by-by.
Will sell all or 1/2 SSO today.
Shorting? How?
ES at fucking 1318 again! (For some bizarre reason this level is a magnet since last year)

WORKING
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?vnm,tur,iyr,xhb,itb,wnr,dk,dow,ppg,xlv,xrt,xlp|B|P5,3,3
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ree,gdx,rgld,fnv,qlti,stmp,ngg,cog|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SPX,HYG,XLU,sso,vvus,ibb,dow,gdx|B|P5,3,3

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ibb,xbi,vvus,qcor,xlv,pph,yelp,fb|B|P5,3,3


 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?byi,shfl,ddd,manh,meoh,dow,gra,geo,iyr,xhb,xlk,xlb|B|P5,3,3

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?RTI,SODA,TEA,MCP,JKS,TSL,TSLA,TTM,POT,ipsu,satc,yelp|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XCO,GSVC,MAS,UEC,URA,REMX,VHC,ARNA,vvus,QCOR,OIH,stmp|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XRT,XHB,IYR,XLB,KBE,FDLSX,FSHCX,FSMEX,FSDCX,FSCHX,FCYIX,FSCGX|B|P5,3,3


 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SLV,XLU,HYG,MOO,dba,vnm,gdxj|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XHB,IYR,XRT,IBB,DBA,MOO,xlb|B|P5,3,3

 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xlu,iyt,ige,xle,oih,kol,copx,remx,ura,tan,fan|B|P5,3,3

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GLD,SLV,GDX,GDXJ,SIL,MUX,TRX,FNV,EXK,MGN,jag,MDW|B|P5,3,3

Thursday, June 21, 2012

iBergamot SLD : GDX, VVUS

GDX stoped out at 46.04 on break of 5min OR.   -3.5% loss
Stop on open gap-down would be 46.27 (little better), but I still think that stop on opening gap should be 5 or 30 min OR.

VVUS 1/2 day stop at 26.45
1:04pm  VVUS all out             +8.5% gain

DOW on-close stop  33.20  ( Canceled. High buy volume from 3:15pm. Will wait till tom)

Feeling FUCKED again...

Daaam, even Cobra...
 

Re: 06/21/2012 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Jun 21, 2012 3:58 pm
well, guess that's it for today. rebound tomorrow maybe, but chances are more down ahead. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow. I had a really bad day, accidentally stopped out the ES short with very tiny gain and missed the whole ride, so in bad mood now. I should absolutely stick to my rule, but why again and again and again I simply violate the rule thinking I could be lucky this time? I really don't understand myself. Be a trader really is difficult, as I never right, always wrong... :(
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Wednesday, June 20, 2012

FED Day in real time

 12:50 pm et
Fucking amazing.
If I kept sell stop on GDX @ 46.50 (where I had it before announcement) I would be stopped out at 12:40et.
10 min later it prints 47.50. Sometimes stop is not your best friend.
VVUS stays flat, DOW goes to HOD (for now).
This is just first score. 2pm and 2:15 ( or 2:30) awaits - nucking futs.

3:00pm et
Still waiting. Reversal of reversal of reversal.

developing...

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

iBergamot BOT : GDX

BOT : GDX @ 47.65 on stop             PF target 58-59
Stop 46.50 and may be higher than that.
Very unusual for me to buy miners without metal (SLV ).
Looking to sell 1/2 SSO, maybe today - nope, lets wait
VVUS 1/2 day stop 26.35 (not hit)
(...hmm... VVUS   ... this is  a tough call. PF target is 29.50, but with today's action I'm not sure it will get there on this move. June 20 is Fed = I usually don't trade and cancel all stops. So, here is a plan: if gap down - all out after 1st 5 min candle; then 30min OR; dont do anything around Fed; reevaluate around 3pm)

Friday, June 15, 2012

iBergamot BOT: DOW

i BOT :  DOW at 32.43.  Stop 31.40
GEO buy on-stop 21.82 not hit. May cancel soon

Monday, June 11, 2012

Dr. Ed Yardeni : Corrections vs. Bear Markets

Dr. Ed's Blog: A Primer: Corrections vs. Bear Markets

" (1) During 2010, the S&P 500 forward P/E dropped 22% from a high of 14.7 on January 11 to a low of 11.4 during August 26. However, forward earnings rose all year. So the 16% correction in the S&P 500 from April 23 to July 2 was reversed by the end of the year, with the P/E ending at 13.1.


(2) During 2011, the P/E fell 25% from 13.6 on February 18 to 10.2 on October 3. Forward earnings rose during the first half of the year and remained mostly flat during the second half at a record high. So once again, the market recovered and closed higher by the end of the year with the P/E rebounding to 11.7.


(3) During 2012 so far this year, the P/E peaked at 13.0 on March 26. It was down 11% to 11.6 yesterday, just about matching the 2010 low, which was 11.4. The S&P 500 is down 9% from its high on April 2, which is still just a garden-variety correction. Meanwhile, forward earnings rose to a new all-time record high of $111.27 during the week of May 31. At this level, a retest of last year’s panic low P/E of 10.2 would push the S&P 500 down to 1135, which would be a 20% decline from the year’s high on April 2."
Thanks, Dr. Ed

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Nicolas Darvas

"...I have learned that, despite the sharpest market shake-out since the 1930s, the current breed of investors had not change their spots. Tidbits of information here, a slight trace of sense over there, a twice-told and often misunderstood story at yet another time was  chiefly what they relied on to put their hard-earned money to work in the stock market."
Nicolas Darvas, 1977

Friday, June 8, 2012

iBergamot BOT: VVUS

 VVUS at 24.40. Stop 22.50, but will raise asap.
day stop 23.25 -  6/11/12
               24.60 - 6/14/12

US T-Bond Bubble.

I hear a giant sucking sound.
Its the US Treasuries sucking all the money and capital in the world. Pulling $$ from any productive use of capital. Paying 2.7% on 30-year paper (2.51% at the low).
I tried to borrow 10k at 3% for 30 years from everybody I know. They just laugh at me. But millions of people give it to treasuries without any second thoughts. Hmm.
Notations on a chart are not mine, and they are a complete nonsense. Whats important is a fact that there is no active investor alive, who traded T-Bond at lows in 1980's and could foresee prices that high (or yield so low). Even more important - there is no active investor alive, who seen a bear market in US Treasuries. But that is nothing. Why? Because the hard right edge of this chart is not active investors, but pensions, IRA's, mom-and-pop etc., who have no clue what shit they got themselves into.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

IBergamot BOT: SSO. VIX buy signal.

BOT: SSO at 48.66.  Stop on close below 47.70.
                                   Stop raised  50.15  -  6/14/12

Here is a VIX buy signal, but its not the only thing Im looking at. Also A/D Indicator having pos. divergence (if it sticks). Other than that, doji  and couple of oscillators - this market is a pile of crap. Crash is still just around the corner, unless...

Monday, June 4, 2012

Friday, May 25, 2012

Looking for Something Positive

From The McClellan Market Report
Thanks Tom.

 The lower indicator in this chart is a 2-day percentage rate of change for HIO (High yield bonds).  It just measures how much price change has occurred since two days before.  When we see a drop of greater than 2% over a two day period, that is usually a great sign of a short term bottom for the overall stock market.

Next is Dem President reelection:
 Finally, I don't know where he is getting this data from, but it was published on Feb 4, 2012 and points to June bottom (BTW my A/D indicator posted its highest reading of the year on Feb 3)
Yes!
A fight that broke out in the corn pits of the Chicago Board Of Trade earlier this week. Apparently it was a fight over an order. One trader thought that the other trader stole one of the others' orders. (I covered DBA short days ago)

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

And Fucked some more

 They Are Coming To Take Your Money Away
Ho Ho, Hee Hee, Hum Hum!
I have been warning that government is getting VERY aggressive all because of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. I have warned that this problem CANNOT be solved in the manner in which they are pursuing – taxing everyone & everything. They are about to destroy the economy and we are headed toward a major period of authoritarianism. There is a steady flow of bills being introduced in Washington that are design to eliminate the Constitution all to save the Bureaucracy. They are going to make DWI a federal offense. Sure, drunk drivers are dangerous. The question becomes what is drunk? When there is money involved and profit for government, do not be foolish to really think they are doing anything for society. The kill switch on the Internet is to cut off the free press and to eliminate the right to assemble since they saw how the Arab youth used social media to organize their revolutions.
Now on January 1st, 2013, the US government will be requiring everyone to have direct deposit for Social Security checks and pensions. Why? Well guess what. There is another bill HR 4646 that will impose a 1% tax on ALL transactions in a bank account. This is not income. This is money flow - a 1% tax on all bank transactions which will include paychecks, retirement checks and Social Security checks. That will even include a 1% tax on your refund check from the IRS. They want direct deposit and eliminate “paper money” to enable them to now tax your cash flow regardless if you make money or not. This bill was introduced by Representative Chaka Fattah (D-PA). They will tax everything before REFORM because this is all about retaining power. The next target 2016 is looking very grim indeed. Forget the gold standard. They want everything electronic and eliminate cash! Watch!

Stolen, err borrowed From  http://www.martinarmstrong.org/
Thanks Martin

Yep, Fucked Again

Obama the Oil Man

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When Obama ran for President, he told us that oil was stupid. He promised to diversify us away from oil, in favour of grandiose alternative energies, like “clean coal”, natural gas, wind, nuclear, solar–even biofuels!
The ultimate barometer of the health of any business is its share price. Wouldn’t you agreed? Indeud.
Let us have a look at some returns of alternative energy names, over the past 3 years.
How’s the fucking solar sector doing?

Eek, that sucks.
Maybe the coal and nuclear sectors are doing better?

How about natural gas?

Ouch, that fucking sucks too.
I know. I bet biofuels have done well.

Unreal.
Just for fun, let’s have a look at oil.

Odd no?
In just three years, for whatever set of circumstances, Obama has accomplished what Cheney, and his evil band of Halliburton bloodsuckers, could have only dreamt of accomplishing in a lifetime. He has eliminated ALL competitors for big oil. Back in the Bush days, when he was out and about war mongering for oil, causing havoc and shit, there was a myriad of new players threatening to compete with big oil. Lo and behold, Mr. Super Fucking Liberal aka “The O”, hater of the fossil fuel, savior of the planet, has done nothing but foster a healthy environment for big oil, while creating circumstances to fucking poleax and demolish anyone who dared to threaten them.
The beauty of this decapitation is the fact it has gone entirely unreported by the propagandist main stream media, who are too busy sucking his dick, than to take a step back to see what is going on.
Long live big oil.

Friday, May 18, 2012

FUCKED

Just to reply to a stupid email I received:
This is 1987 !, and no I'm not implying that this is going to happen again soon, but there is a striking similarity in failed rally after a double-bottom and following decline. Minus a crash (for now). My point is - we are very-very close to something really-really bad, unless...