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Saturday, July 13, 2013

System 12 Re-Start

I received additional money for main (LB) account. Last time I was running System 12 as Back-Test-Forward-Test (BTFT), meaning I was transitioning paper trades of running Back Test into real money positions in main account. I did it in two ways: Main Account positions where taken opportunistically at my discretion, while OX paper trades where open all at once on 1/28/2013. Less than a month later Main Account run out of money.
I wrote here: http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/02/battle-of-1510es.html
I may liquidate remaining S12T positions - I was right, I was getting ahead of myself, but the problem is not expectancy of System 12. The problem is under-capitalization.
 Main Account about break-even on these System12 Transition (S12T) even without completion of all.
OX paper trade account was abandoned on 3/21/2013, following that no stop losses where taken. Today it has 11 positions with 3 losers - FMX, IBM and ORCL, all would be stopped out long ago per rules of System12. Still total gain is a bit over 1 unit size, and that is Great!

First step is to make BTFT current, make adjustments in OX paper account. I am very concerned about starting S12T now, as I view this market as very dangerous and expecting sudden drop, even bear market.

This is how it looks now. Big jump is because of gap in data from 3/22 to 7/11/2013.
Chart resumes on 7/12/2013.

BTFT positions:
FMX,  ORCL to be liquidated per rules. IBM has to be too, but I will put stop at 190.
Also FMX is #175 now! ORCL is #30.
 NVS to be liquidated on trailing stop (#22)

This is MD:  I have BRK, CVX, GE, GOOG, JNJ
AAPL is disqualified, can be replaced by IBM (I have in BTFT)
RDS just crossing 50dma, can be temporarily replaced by PFE/TM (I have in BTFT)

 This is SD: I have IBM, PFE, TM, NVS
IBM, PTR, CHL, BHP are disqualified.
MD+ Screen 7/15/2013

I am re-starting System 12 gradually.
BTFT has 1 available slot on Monday, and will have 2 more on Tuesday after FMX and ORCL are gone. I have 1 week Positioning Period (PP) to replace these and will take same trades in Main Account.
Here are available candidates: XOM,MSFT,WMT,PG,WFC in this order.
The rest of them (BRK, CVX, GE, GOOG, JNJ) are MD stocks that I already have in BTFT, and need to buy for Main Account S12T on some kind of reaction.
WFC and MSFT are little extended, but really they all look good. Watch earnings coming up.
7/15 - WFC 43.29
7/18 - XOM 94.13  Accidentally, I bought 19sh instead of 16.

Lose Yourself to mechanical system.

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