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Saturday, July 13, 2013

System 12 Re-Start

I received additional money for main (LB) account. Last time I was running System 12 as Back-Test-Forward-Test (BTFT), meaning I was transitioning paper trades of running Back Test into real money positions in main account. I did it in two ways: Main Account positions where taken opportunistically at my discretion, while OX paper trades where open all at once on 1/28/2013. Less than a month later Main Account run out of money.
I wrote here: http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2013/02/battle-of-1510es.html
I may liquidate remaining S12T positions - I was right, I was getting ahead of myself, but the problem is not expectancy of System 12. The problem is under-capitalization.
 Main Account about break-even on these System12 Transition (S12T) even without completion of all.
OX paper trade account was abandoned on 3/21/2013, following that no stop losses where taken. Today it has 11 positions with 3 losers - FMX, IBM and ORCL, all would be stopped out long ago per rules of System12. Still total gain is a bit over 1 unit size, and that is Great!

First step is to make BTFT current, make adjustments in OX paper account. I am very concerned about starting S12T now, as I view this market as very dangerous and expecting sudden drop, even bear market.


This is how it looks now. Big jump is because of gap in data from 3/22 to 7/11/2013.
Chart resumes on 7/12/2013.

BTFT positions:
FMX,  ORCL to be liquidated per rules. IBM has to be too, but I will put stop at 190.
Also FMX is #175 now! ORCL is #30.
 NVS to be liquidated on trailing stop (#22)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?brk/b,cvx,fmx,ge,goog,ibm,jnj,nvs,orcl,pfe,tm|B|P5,3,3

This is MD:  I have BRK, CVX, GE, GOOG, JNJ
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,AAPL,GOOG,MSFT,BRK/B,WMT,JNJ,GE,CVX,PG,WFC,RDS/B|B|P5,3,3
AAPL is disqualified, can be replaced by IBM (I have in BTFT)
RDS just crossing 50dma, can be temporarily replaced by PFE/TM (I have in BTFT)

 This is SD: I have IBM, PFE, TM, NVS
IBM, PTR, CHL, BHP are disqualified.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IBM,PTR,CHL,JPM,PFE,TM,HBC,T,KO,NVS,BHP,C|B|P14,3,3
MD+ Screen 7/15/2013

I am re-starting System 12 gradually.
BTFT has 1 available slot on Monday, and will have 2 more on Tuesday after FMX and ORCL are gone. I have 1 week Positioning Period (PP) to replace these and will take same trades in Main Account.
Here are available candidates: XOM,MSFT,WMT,PG,WFC in this order.
The rest of them (BRK, CVX, GE, GOOG, JNJ) are MD stocks that I already have in BTFT, and need to buy for Main Account S12T on some kind of reaction.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,MSFT,WMT,PG,WFC,BRK/b,CVX,GE,GOOG,JNJ|B|P5,3,3
WFC and MSFT are little extended, but really they all look good. Watch earnings coming up.
BOT:
7/15 - WFC 43.29
7/18 - XOM 94.13  Accidentally, I bought 19sh instead of 16.


Lose Yourself to mechanical system.

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