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Monday, October 22, 2012

Positions. Last week's talks.




UGA is a short.
No TBT now. Looking to enter. May short TMF.
HCN, MCP, NOV, TAYC are 1/2pos. Add or drop.

Oct 15:
I surely hope that Fearless is right, and this is up and up from here.  As for put/call ratio, I don't see it that clear on expiration week. I remember my option trading years. This is a time when they loose sleep and run out of nail to chew. Just imagine you position is about to go to option heaven. Puff... you lose. I say - let them kill each other off - the air will be much clearer next Monday.
Meanwhile, at "major averages ranch", IWM is sucking brick, QQQ has plenty of overhead resistance to fight and SPX is back at the point where it's 50 points up or down from here. Truly in a market of stocks - you need to pick your spots. KORS + TIF = happy. KRE + YELP = sad.
I'm really looking at Dollar, famously showing "suicidal tendencies" (plagiarizes from Mole). If that thing breaks down from 79/80 box, where its been for past 20 days... One can have a dream. Right?
Back to your regularly scheduled chop-fest
 Oct 19:   http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31381
Daaam, I'm missing all fun. totally swamped at office with 2 (two!) surprise audits. These people surely want me to quit this damn job.
Open interest on ES stands at whooping 3017000. I view high open interest as indicator of too many shorts in the market. Last time it was over 3mil was in end of August, close to contract expiry. Those shorts got squeezed, today's shorts will get murdered. I'm not saying that this thing will turn today, but I will not short it for any more than few hours ( and probably not at all)
Please, keep in mind that I keep my stocks for weeks-to-months.
 Bollinger on VIX is so narrow, it may get step 1 within days. Or even today. Sell-sell-sell! Come to papa!
 Ahem, excuse me, But  Nasdaq A/D hit 3rd lowest reading in 6 months. -1650. The only two lower readings where near bottoms on June 1 and july 23.
what the hell is going on? Somebody bombed us?

  • I Bergamot                      http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31398
    Fine. Them peoples are in pain and selling everything. I help them, poor souls, and bought some. Interestingly, 30yr bond doesn't look giddy at all. On a down day like today I was expecting it it be up much more.
    So my question is this. If money go out from stocks and PM - where are they going?
  • volar, futures trader
     shocked here too mate. no panic volume in equities at the moment.
    Bottom is nas and NYSE volume, middle emini volume
    no panic selling yet- but really only thing green on my screen is spreads, and corn/wheat, natty.

    I Bergamot
     That I understand. But stock traders usually don't cross over to these commodities. I, for one, cannot handle them.

    volar, futures trader
     my point. no volume- no real transfer. commods (obviously not high beta oil, copper, gold) are up- just a sign of strength for those markets

    I Bergamot
    Are you saying they are scaring the children?

    volar, futures trader
     i dunno- just saying i like to buy when others are in utter panic- this clearly not it today

    Not much short covering into close. I demand more blood! Pain, suffering and broken support . I am going to hate every second of this weekend.

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