I ones heard someone comparing market to a puzzle.Molecool disagreed, as he compared market to hunting:
A trader works on solving the puzzle, and every time he finds the piece that fits - he receives a prize token with a small monetary value. But I think there is a twist to this story.
You see, when trader goes to sleep... Santa Clause comes and rearranges portion of the puzzle, takes some pieces away and throws in some new ones. His origin is a secret, his reasons are unknown, his logic is moot.
I don't complain. I love the process of solving the puzzle and enjoy them prize tokens. I'm just a little leery of bearded motherfucker... that's all...;-)
You don't care about which way the herd will run. You simply wait for an opportunity to tear into one of the laggards.Now that is a bit too violent for me, I am too mellow for this kind of metaphor.
I don't even like hunting.
If there is a comparison to animal kingdom, I would go with Leo Cooperman's:
It doesn't matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle; when the sun comes up you'd better be runningPersonally, I like to think of stock speculations as fishing...
First of all, fisherman needs a good spot. There is no way of knowing what lurks beneath murky waters - experience and bit of common sense goes a long way in picking a proper location. Preparation matters a lot - gear, bait etc. Gotta go out early ahead of time, to be ready for sunrise. Still, there is no guaranty that fish will bite. All the worms in a world will not help without a bit of luck (try back-testing that... lol).
Patient and skilled fishermen will not go home empty-handed (most of the time).
With that in mind, I embarked on a fishing expedition to pick a minor bottom in SPX via futures (amongst other things).
This is a really weird contract roll, btw. Open interest (OI) is very high still, considering that July will become front month today. It is my own theory, that high OI is indicative of large short position in ES futures. Even after a couple of days of heavy selling, March OI is still over 3mil. How these people are going to cover? They are out of time.
Most surveys show very low or even extreme low in bearishness, which is usually indicative of market top. Usually... After a 5 year bull market one wouldn't expect to find many bears. Not vocal one's, anyway...
I drew a crayon for SPX a month ago, exactly on a day of the bottom here (link), after a 6%ish correction. 1850 high was taken out and will act as support. If the is no overlap, then this market is even stronger that it seems. Fib target from that chart is 1898. My point-n-figure targets are 1974-1978, followed by 2115 (what?)... Lets first get to 1890, then we will see.
I am using System 10, designed just for this condition - a correction in major trend, with entry technique by System 11. Combining the two was a really good idea, as it takes care of major problems for both. System10 often suffered a draw-down, but never had a losing campaign. System11 never had a major loss, but often ends break-even or worse.
Fishing expedition is in progress. Hope I don't fall face in a mud.
Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face. - Mike Tyson
Turns out mud was the least of my problems...
Under it was a sharp stone - I got blood and sweat, and mud all over my face
Bruised and humiliated, but not on my back... far from it
------------------------------IN THE NEWS--------------------------------
Ukraine, Crimea, Putin, war, Maidan, pipelines, Black Sea, 15 Billion, corruption...
So much talk, when really its all very simple. Ukraine borrowed 15bil, not its time to repay, but they are broke. Somebody (cough...Putin...cough) will give the money. Somebody ( Ukr government...cough) will steal some of it. Problem is - there is no functional government in Ukraine. Solution - its Jews fault... what else.
Overall - there is no news. Nothing! I don't watch much TV anyway, but things usually get to me somehow. Not lately. So I've been flipping thru channels, and also on a radio, for a couple of days - but there is nothing!. Little bit here and there, but mainly we don't have economy, politics, foreign affairs, scandals, scams, crimes or unemployment.
We have pleasant, giggling, mindless stories about nothing